The Australian reports the latest fortnightly Newspoll is unchanged at 55-45, from primary votes of 32% for Labor (steady), 46% for the Coalition (down two) and 10% for the Greens (down one). Gillard is up two on approval to 30% and down two on disapproval to 60%, while Abbott is up one and down one to 36% and 53%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is up slightly, from 40-37 to 40-35.
Also out today:
• The weekly Essential Research records no change on last week on voting intention, with the Coalition leading 55-45 on two-party preferred from primary vote of 34% for Labor, 48% for the Coalition and 9% for the Greens. The poll also finds 51% thinking Australia made the wrong decision going to war against Iraq against 23% for the right decision; support for same sex marriage at 54% and opposition at 33%; and 68% supporting the Gonski report recommendations against 13% opposed, but 43% opposed to the government’s specific plan against 40% in support.
• The Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor up half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 44% (their weakest result since this series began eight weeks ago) and the Greens steady on 10.5%. That pans out to 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (down from 55.5-44.5), which Morgan prefers, and 54-46 on previous election preferences (down from 56-44), which I and every other pollster prefer. The sample this time around was 3270.
Assuming that the sample size is about 2,000 or less (can’t find this info), changes in Newspoll are within the margin of error.
also newspoll would have protected abbott
by not asking any questions about abbott’s judgement about his staffer
etc
which would have had happen if it was Gillard
again newspoll shows its only based on the media’s agenda
….. cosseted, but with the toddlers security harness, it really is the case of ‘….. the man who lives in a Bubble…..’
izatso
the coalition will not win the election with a primary vote under 45%
the only time they did , when howard was in government
The question is , how dumb is the liberal party by keeping abbott as leader
with everything going for them they are still on the verge of losing the unloseable election
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
this could be a bit of a time bomb.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/fight-over-holiday-lets-goes-to-court-20130422-2iara.html
A taste of what is to come if Abbott gets up.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/libs-reignite-culture-wars-over-anzac-day-teaching-20130422-2iaro.html
Tim Colebatch speaking some good sense here.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/farewell-to-good-times-somethings-gotta-give-20130422-2iad7.html
Barney Zwartz on the Victorian commission on child dex abuse.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/abusers-may-be-at-large-says-church-20130422-2iars.html
Understandable.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/liberal-candidate-sue-lawrie-falls-foul-of-facebook-protocols-after-liking-post-criticising-senator-cory-bernardi/story-e6frea83-1226626191303
No. Never! The Rodent denied it. Enough said.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/come-clean-on-role-we-played-in-abetting-torture-20130421-2i84y.html
Pat Campbell on the budget.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
MUST SEE! David Rowe at Abbott’s and Sloppy’s Shit Sandwich shop. (Sandwiches a la merde).
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
Morning all. I second BKs endorsement of the Tim Colebatch article on the need for a change in economic policy. We need to tax more and invest in things that improve productivity. The room to cut is negligible. This is the key quote:
[The bottom line is that something’s got to give. Australia cannot continue this level of spending with this level of revenue. Excluding east Asia, our government spending is already the second-lowest in the Western world, behind only Switzerland. Both tax rises and spending cuts will be needed to get our budgets back in balance.]
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/farewell-to-good-times-somethings-gotta-give-20130422-2iad7.html#ixzz2REH7v33Z
And from the Land of the Free –
Here’s a Democrat in the pocket of the NRA. She’s from North Dakota, so it’s understsandable.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/04/22/video-shame-on-you-sen-heitkamp-serve-your-constituents-not-the-nra/
Some cartoons on the crazies over there.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/04/22/cartoons-of-the-day-the-crazies-among-us/
Mental giant Brian Kilmeade of Fax and Friends.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/04/22/video-fox-host-brian-kilmeade-asks-why-racial-profiling-isnt-used-to-prevent-terrorism/
Yeah Tone, let’s get rid of all the red tape for business!
http://crooksandliars.com/juanita-jean/come-texas-where-its-better-business
Speaking of investment, a lot of States are spruiking light rail systems, and here is the latest request from Parramatta.
[Tram lines connecting Parramatta with Castle Hill and Macquarie Park would transport up to 10,000 commuters an hour, a council proposal shows.
The state government says it is open to working with the council on the proposed routes, estimated to cost about $1.7 billion. The first stage of the light rail study was due to be endorsed by Parramatta Council on Monday night.]
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/parramatta-pushing-for-17b-tram-routes-20130422-2iaq1.html#ixzz2REHn7Fj5
I have worked on a few such projects and I am generally in favour. Making the Glenelg tram into a light rail type system here in Adelaide has more than doubled patronage. Of course, the key question is not what mode of public transport to build, but how best to link it into the CBD and key job centres. Freeways do not get the same job benefits, unless they link to ports and airports.
Good Morning
It gets worse for those these lot.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/22/reinhart-rogoff-mistakes_n_3133752.html
[Australia’s casual workforce has remained steady over the past decade according to a new Productivity Commission paper…]
[Analysis to be released on Tuesday suggests casuals and fixed-term employees were no more common in 2011 than 10 years earlier.]
[The Productivity Commission staff working paper says permanent full-time and part-time employees accounted for 60 per cent of the workforce in 2011, while casual employees and the self-employed accounted for a little under 20 per cent each.
In raw numbers, the casual workforce increased from 1.79 million in 2001 to 2.25 million in 2011, but the number of permanent workers rose faster, from 5.36 million to 7.02 million over the same period.
The paper says only permanent employees increased as a share of the workforce in the decade to 2011…]
[…although the nation had one of the developed world’s fastest growth rates of casual employees in the 1990s, the increases moderated from 2001.]
http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/1450354/casual-workforce-little-changed-since-2001/?cs=12
morning
i watched the replay of PMJG forum on APAC. It was a good display by the PM.
Two of the questions were about marriage equality. I believe the govt should bring on another conscience vote before the election. Abbott will be under the glare of the electorate this time, and under the circumstances, Abbott may have no choice but to allow his MPs a vote as a result.
[ruawake
Posted Tuesday, April 23, 2013 at 4:50 am | PERMALINK
So another fall in Lib primary vote, and another very high others, people are deserting Abbott but not coming to Labor, yet.
Another bad poll for The Libs. The Primary vote is just 2 points shy of loserville.]
With 20 months to go the Coalition was ahead by double digits
With 20 weeks to go the Coalition is ahead by double digits
ruawake uses this as evidence to say the Coalition is teetering on the edge of loserville!!!!!
🙂
…..and then comes Meguirre Bob who reminds us that:
[Meguire Bob
Posted Tuesday, April 23, 2013 at 6:47 am | PERMALINK
izatso
the coalition will not win the election with a primary vote under 45%]
although provides an escape clause:
[the only time they did , when howard was in government]
Is the water warm in the Egyptian river? You guys need to come out and dry yourselves off at some stage….Sep 14th about 8pm appears to be an option.
Can I remind you both the Coalition remains in the realm of 100 seats to 50?
About to go on local ABC radio, to talk about the sad lack of Labor candidates for Indi….
Morning All
Interesting poll, I would’ve liked to see things tighten up a bit more but happy to see the coalition’s primary vote falling away – even if it isn’t going directly to Greens or Labor.
Just had a look at the results for 2010 and the coalition primary vote (including Libs, Nats, LNP and CLP) was around 43.5% – so at 46% in this poll and with more tightening to come, hopefully, it’s far from over yet.
My early prediction for the election – the highest informal vote ever.
Off to work, have a great day all
Victoria – just before I go – it would be an awful look to have Julia voting against SSM again before the election, that’s all people would see.
It’s risable!!…..we see here a coiterie of congratualtors slapping eachother on the arse for a election well won wya, way before the race evens starts!
Let’s look at the opp’n line-up..; A leader who, when he ran from the house to everyone’s amazement, could only enthuse one other member to join him in the dash!…some leader!..there ought to have been a mass exodus of scrambling and elbowing for the doors!
And the opp’n front bench?…I challenge anyone of you LNP. diehards here to name one..not two!..ONE front bencher who hasn’t in some way been stitched up and emasculated by their own party (I’ll excuse mesma on this one) and too frightened to make policy announcements relating even to their own portfolio!
I mean..look!.A pic of the opp’n front bench line up is like one of those dog-eared posters from days of yore where you saw a cluster of goofy subjects under the heading..: “Our keen and intelligent staff are eager to assist you”.
Lighten up rightoes..: You are out of govt’, you are out of talent and you are just about out of luck!
womble
PMJG explained her position at the forum. She believes for ssm to become law, would require all MPs to be able to vote with their conscience as was done in NZ
zoomster
The indignity of Ms Sophie, shadow minister for ripping off old men with dementia, not having any challenger!!
MB,
I think William can confirm this for us, but Gillard is the most unpopular Prime Minister Australia has ever had since the days of polling began.
Thinking the most unpopular PM in history will win is fairy tale stuff.
mod lib @ 64
Abbott will be the same as hewson , opinion polls do not count when it time to pick the government
Sean Tisme. Howard was without a doubt the most unpopular PM of all time.
Mark the Ballot’s weekly aggregation: 55 to 45 – with an interesting leak of primary votes to other.
http://marktheballot.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/weekly-aggregation-55-45.html
So voters seem to be slowly falling off the libs and at this stage parking their vote.
Now that Abbott is backpedalling on everything it would be my thinking this vote will gradually return to labor.
What is the point of voting coalition? The very few ideas (and I use the term loosely) that they once had – surplus, cut in company tax are being junked on a daily basis.
Tweet by Mr Denmore
If Aussies are this gloomy when the economy’s OK what will they be like if the s**t hits the fan? The phrase ‘spoiled brats’ springs to mind
I don’t think the PM’s popularity counts for very much. John Howard, Paul Keating and Malcolm Fraser were never popular and the latter two were decidedly unpopular. All were for much of the time intensely disliked by a substantial minority of the population. However, they still won elections.
Ruawake said
Another bad poll for The Libs. The Primary vote is just 2 points shy of loserville.
Alternative universe is a fun place to be.
very hard to losr government from 46% primary, if winning government is a bad poll, I would hate to see a good poll for the Liberals
If Liberals primary is 2 points above loserville, the ALP are 14 points below. But then we know from the accidental spill, the malaysian solution, the internet filter, the media law, the antidiscrimination law, the insulation, the green loans, the grocery choice, the mining tax, the internet filter etc, why a bunch of unionists who has never held real jobs, should never be put in charge of anything
Socrates@60
Your last paragraph refers to linking to the CBD and other job centres.
Rail systems such as Melbourne’s, are purely radial and facilitate journeys to and from the CBD but little else.
Isn’t it time we broke out of this and placed greater emphasis on the other job centres as you describe them?
Doesn’t the radial system self perpetuate by making access to the CBD easy and journeys between other points much more difficult and time consuming?
Melbourne has tried to compensate by new bus routes such as the 901 & 902 routes which are cross suburban. e.g. 902 from Chelsea to Airport West. But my experience is that these are no substitute for a rail system.
Henry
So far the coalition are giving us
Fraudband which will cost us $5,000 for the privilege of a connection
Direct action policy which will cost us taxpayers at least $900 per annum
Nanny tax which will cost companies 1.5%, which cost will be passed on to us via increased prices
Abolish school bonus payment of $410 per primary student and $820 per secondary student per annum
How wonderment
Morning all. Andrew Elder’s latest:
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/not-cruising-drifting.html
Sean Tiche….C’mon; sing along to the words..: “wishin’ an’ hopin’ an’ dreamin’ an’ prayin’….just do it, an’ after you do,..you wiiill be his!”..After all, it’s something you always wanted!
A tramline to Parramatta could work. Parramatta is now a major employment centre, with many companies having moved staff out of the CBD in the last 20 years. Further, driving to Parramatta is no longer an attractive proposition, between congestion and increasingly expensive parking. However, it’s hard to see anyone building it. Governments don’t do that sort of thing any more. Any private company taking it on would have to have great faith that if they build it passengers will come. I can’t see a private consortium taking the risk. Further, the record of public-private partnerships in NSW does not inspire confidence – the contract usually requires that alternatives be strangulated and even so the private partner normally goes broke.
I expect to see the first tram arrive in Castle Hill about the same time as the first plane lands at Sydney’s second airport. And the first human lands on Mars (or maybe Pluto).
I see Tony there with his “piccolo blu libro” again..could someone please sustitute a “Mad Magazine” just once for a bit of fun?
[Meguire Bob
Posted Tuesday, April 23, 2013 at 6:48 am | PERMALINK
The question is , how dumb is the liberal party by keeping abbott as leader
with everything going for them they are still on the verge of losing the unloseable election]
I have missed you Baghdad Bob 🙂
So, why do the Liberals keep Abbott? simple, he is more liked then Gillard… Even the Female voters now prefer him over the Dear Leader.
Keep it up Bob, i love your posts 🙂
A reminder to Conservatives.
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/morgan-poll-shows-lnp-lead-down-for-third-consecutive-week/
Do not fall for headlines written by News campaigning for LNP.
The falls are for the LNP in all the polls.
How long popularity moves away from the LNP is another question of course.
A couple of items from last night.
Note this ‘He insisted he could talk Indonesia around into accepting boats’.
http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=865677
Then this – Indonesia tells Tony ‘Oh no you won’t!’ and accuses him of jeopardising relations betwwen Jakarta and Canberra.
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1758792/Indonesian-legislator-criticises-Abbotts-asylum-po
The Liberals know they can’t stop the boats. It’s hard to see why Indonesia would accept asylum seekers once they are no longer their problem. They have said that they won’t accept them back and they’ve never taken kindly to the use of the megaphone. TPVs did not work and won’t work if tried a second time. Nauru and Manus Island won’t work a second time. And no matter how nasty we might be to asylum seekers, it won’t be as bad as the Taliban or the Mullahs. However, once Abbott gets in he’ll make the excuse (supported by his media allies) that it’s all Labor’s fault. Once this starts to wear thin he and his media allies will start to downplay and where possible ignore the issue.
[Steve777
Posted Tuesday, April 23, 2013 at 9:50 am | PERMALINK
The Liberals know they can’t stop the boats. ]
May be true, but its still a shame that Labor started the racket again and so many people have died.
One of the very few pleasures to look forward to with an Abbott government is watching the Indonesians tell him to go fark himself over boat people, in that nice polite Indonesian style, of course.
Abbott has set himself up for a world of pain and humiliation on this one.
[Just Me
Posted Tuesday, April 23, 2013 at 9:57 am | PERMALINK
One of the very few pleasures to look forward to with an Abbott government is watching the Indonesians tell him to go fark himself over boat people, in that nice polite Indonesian style, of course.]
Good, then we can remove all the aid we give them as well.
rummel
Yeah Labor is so responsible for the Howard decision to commit troops in Afghanistan.
We know full well that we cannot match the terror refugees are fleeing from. As long as that remains the case the boats come.
Nothing to do if its LNP tough or Labor Lite on AS Policy
The Boats they come.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9f9zHCXeQw
I know a former top public servant bloke who couldn’t vote for Keating but otherwise has voted Labor for more than fifty years. This time he’s voting informal.
[So, why do the Liberals keep Abbott? simple, he is more liked then Gillard… Even the Female voters now prefer him over the Dear Leader. ]
Looking at the breakdown of women and men voters it appears Gillard has a problem with MEN.
Perhaps calling them all misogynists for looking at their watch has turned off the men voters from this nast
[So, why do the Liberals keep Abbott? simple, he is more liked then Gillard… Even the Female voters now prefer him over the Dear Leader. ]
Looking at the breakdown of women and men voters it appears Gillard has a problem with MEN.
Perhaps calling them all misogynists for looking at their watch has turned off the men voters from this nasty, angry woman
Sean Tisme
The LNP popularity is falling. It shows up in all the polls.
The headline News Limited campaigning for the LNP does not want you to notice.
[guytaur
Posted Tuesday, April 23, 2013 at 10:01 am | PERMALINK
rummel
Yeah Labor is so responsible for the Howard decision to commit troops in Afghanistan.]
yes they are… Afghanistan was supported by Labor. I will only accept moral high ground speeches from the Greens.
May i mention that stoping the boats will be good for the aid budget as Labor are using it to pay for detaining Refugees.
rummwl
The point is that “Stopping the Boats” is a lie. One Labor has not said. Labor has said stop the people smugglers model. A different thing.
Remember I am with the Greens on AS policy. So when I tell you that the LNP is lying with stop the boats and that Labor has made no such promise as they know its a lie be sure its the truth.
[guytaur
Posted Tuesday, April 23, 2013 at 10:06 am | PERMALINK
Sean Tisme
The LNP popularity is falling. It shows up in all the polls.]
LNP have been falling in the polls since the last election according to Team Gillard. 143 Days for the falling to continue.
[Good, then we can remove all the aid we give them as well.]
In which case, hello to major growth in religious Madras schools and Islamic fascism in Indonesia, and a serious deterioration in our international relationships with that region.
The era when the white man can lord it over the coloured man has passed, Rummel. As Big Tough Tones will find out, if he wins.