Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

The Australian reports the latest fortnightly Newspoll is unchanged at 55-45, although the Coalition is down two on the primary vote.

The Australian reports the latest fortnightly Newspoll is unchanged at 55-45, from primary votes of 32% for Labor (steady), 46% for the Coalition (down two) and 10% for the Greens (down one). Gillard is up two on approval to 30% and down two on disapproval to 60%, while Abbott is up one and down one to 36% and 53%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is up slightly, from 40-37 to 40-35.

Also out today:

• The weekly Essential Research records no change on last week on voting intention, with the Coalition leading 55-45 on two-party preferred from primary vote of 34% for Labor, 48% for the Coalition and 9% for the Greens. The poll also finds 51% thinking Australia made the wrong decision going to war against Iraq against 23% for the right decision; support for same sex marriage at 54% and opposition at 33%; and 68% supporting the Gonski report recommendations against 13% opposed, but 43% opposed to the government’s specific plan against 40% in support.

• The Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor up half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 44% (their weakest result since this series began eight weeks ago) and the Greens steady on 10.5%. That pans out to 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (down from 55.5-44.5), which Morgan prefers, and 54-46 on previous election preferences (down from 56-44), which I and every other pollster prefer. The sample this time around was 3270.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,239 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  3. So now we have had three crap weeks for Abbott, three weeks with policy at the front and three weeks where nothing has changed…. funny that, change Gillard and the polls would go crazy.

  5. sprocket

    Yes has to be to other. As the Greens are down by one as well.

    Makes the TPP an assumption of dubious merit I think.

  6. [sprocket_
    Posted Monday, April 22, 2013 at 10:52 pm | PERMALINK
    Libs down 2 on primary but no change to 2PP?]

    Greens down one means 0.8 drop to the ALP.

  7. [So now we have had three crap weeks for Abbott, three weeks with policy at the front and three weeks where nothing has changed]

    Yep. Fertile ground for Team Abbott hubris.

    May it continue.

  8. Labor needs another 4% for the Monkey to get out to $1.50.

    Not impossible, they need a magnificent campaign to bridge the gap.

    I’d go (campaign mode) straight after the budget!

  9. sprocket_

    Indeed, based on the rounded primary votes alone, the ALP TPP vote is on the 44 side of 45 (not the other way).

  14. ‘they need a magnificent campaign to bridge the gap’

    On recent general election form this is a mighty tall order.

  15. Actually davidwh:

    I made it 44.4 on primaries last time
    and make it 44.8 on primaries this time

    Its all in the rounding of course!

  18. Gillard stays out of the death zone.

    This is a good thing.

    Rummel – normally I’d suggest you STF because one should not interupt your enemy while they are making a mistake, however, seeing as they wouldn’t listen to Simon Crean, I doubt they’d listen to you.

  19. guytaur@5

    sprocket

    Yes has to be to other. As the Greens are down by one as well.

    Makes the TPP an assumption of dubious merit I think.

    There’s nothing unbelievable about it. We don’t know the rounding in the original figures or the rounding in the total. The two-point change might actually be one-point-something-small and the overall no-change might actually be a change approaching a point.

  22. CC

    Dont worry, Labor are locked in with Gillard. No one would stand up now and take Gillards loss for her. Plus im expecting a fantastic concession speech at around 1830 election night.

  24. [rummel
    Posted Monday, April 22, 2013 at 11:06 pm | PERMALINK
    CC

    Dont worry, Labor are locked in with Gillard. No one would stand up now and take Gillards loss for her. Plus im expecting a fantastic concession speech at around 1830 election night.]

    Don’t be completely ridiculous rummel….it will be at least 8:30.

  25. [Don’t be completely ridiculous rummel….it will be at least 8:30.]

    Sorry, 2030h…. i suppose Red Kev and Anthony Green need to put in more then a cameo appearance.

  26. Good to see the disgraceful Wakefield paper getting a run on Lateline. It linked MMR vaccination with Autism and was completely flawed and his co-authors have since withdrawn their support for the paper and Lancet has withdrawn the paper.

    Wakefield’s Lancet paper in the 1990s resulted in a huge international drop in MMR vaccination and a huge rise in Measles cases, including deaths.

    Wakefield documented 12 cases. A study in Denmark of 2.5 million child years showed (drum roll) absolutely no relationship between MMR vaccination and autism.

  27. ML, agree. Happy to see the anti-vaccination trolls whinging on Q@A about not getting a run.

    Anti vaccination people support naturopathy for autism. FFS.

  29. [What are the actual % flows from the Greens and others?]

    The Greens flowed 77% to Labor in 2010 and “others” 42.5%. If you plug this week’s raw primary vote figures into that preference distribution, it comes out at 55.2-44.8. Last fortnight’s was 55.7-44.3, so obviously the rounding of the primary votes went against Labor somewhat. Turn Labor 32% and Coalition 48% from last time into 32.4% and 47.6% and you get 55.3-44.7.

  30. MM:

    I tell the medical students we have a very special name for naturopathy therapies that have been shown to work.

    ….we call it “medicine”

    Good night all. 🙂

  32. Here’s one of my favourites on naturopaths/new age medicine

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMGIbOGu8q0

    I despise anti-science /anti-Enlightenment thinking from my fellow greenie/hippy types as much as I do from Alan Jones/Mr Monkton/Tony Abbott/Pell types. I really lerv D-heads such as Bolt who can be convinced by the ‘science’ against wind-farms but then find three decades of solid climate science somewhat unconvincing.

    Abbott’s mediaevalism will take us back to the dark ages. Here he is applying his scientific method – again showing his sensitive side towards women. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrzMhU_4m-g

  34. Zoomster,
    Positive thoughts for your Mum. She is in good hands but I know you can’t stop worrying. Hugs.

  36. On very good authority, cousins Pattie and Chrissie Amphlett were holding hands as Chrissie left us.

    Those unsure about strong women performing in traditionally male roles might care to reflect on these two

    And with that good think

  41. “For change to happen, there has got to be a cataclysmic act like the severe flogging they received in Queensland,” he told The Courier-Mail.

    Don’t worry, it’s only 143 days away now…

  42. Abbott up one on approval and down one on disapproval for a net -13. Gillard up two and down two for a net -30. Abbott PPM lead up two to 40/35.

  45. Interesting article.

    I don’t think its correct to say free market theory is dead for these things do go in cycle and the theory itself is not the problem but how it is implemented and how inflexible it is to alternative views.

    The notion of allowing business to be free of being over burdened with regulation is a worthy thing, the problem is when it is taken to its extreme and little to no regulation is applied.

    The 1980s saw many positives and while it is true that in some cases it was taken too far for in stead of recognising the markets limits the policy makers tried to add to it by pushing the theory to its extremes.

  46. I should add that i think Greece should have defaulted and several European banks should have been forced to merge or allowed to exist the market in an orderly fashion.

  48. Just watched The Drum.

    I suspect Julia Baird will soon be going on a long planned holiday.

    Perhaps Hamilton Island. Hardly the gulag, but you know.

    Tim Wilson. Distinctly unhappy. The balance thing.

    Ms Baird in my judgement, gave Tim Wilson the least of time to speak. Quite unconsciously, given the flow. Which pleased me greatly.

    I suppose she was engaged in hearing other views of interest, rather than the ideological rant of the IPA.

    It was real discussion.

  49. So another fall in Lib primary vote, and another very high others, people are deserting Abbott but not coming to Labor, yet.

    Another bad poll for The Libs. The Primary vote is just 2 points shy of loserville.

  50. ummel
    Posted Monday, April 22, 2013 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    So now we have had three crap weeks for Abbott, three weeks with policy at the front and three weeks where nothing has changed….
    ——————

    4% dropped for the libs in a month , bad for abbott and the coalition

    and another 2-4 % its over for the coalition

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