The latest weekly BludgerTrack update has been added to the sidebar, adding results from Newspoll, Galaxy and Essential Research. I have replaced my ad hoc rolling average calculation with LOESS, the polling wonk’s smoothing method of choice. As well as making my graphs look prettier, this makes for smoother trendlines and should reduce volatility from one week to the next. I’ll be applying some further methodological tinkering next week, including updating the Newspoll bias measures to account for the Western Australian election result – on which more below.
First though, it should be noted that the Financial Review has published results from a JWS Research automated phone poll of 4070 respondents in 54 marginal seats, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday. This records an aggregate swing of Labor of 9.3%, compared with a quite bad enough result of 4.8% when the exercise was last conducted in mid-January. In the aftermath of last week’s leadership chaos, it may well be significant that the shift was heavily concentrated in Queensland.
Preselection news:
• A general meeting of the ACT Liberals has voted down a motion to overturn Senator Gary Humphries’ preselection defeat at the hands of former ACT Opposition Leader Zed Seselja by a margin of 168 to 138. There had been compaints from Humphries supporters that many party members had been wrongly excluded from the February preselection vote, which Seselja won 114 to 84.
• The plot has thickened in the preselection to choose a successor to Nicola Roxon in Gellibrand, with three credibly rated candidates in the field. Unidentified sources quoted by John Ferguson in The Australian suggest opposition to Tim Watts, Telstra executive and former staffer to Stephen Conroy, amounts to a test of Conroy’s influence, which is said to be “starting to wane”. Josh Gordon of The Age reports a 2008 factional realignment reserved the seat for the Shorten-Conroy Right sub-faction, but Roxon has entered the fray by sending a letter to local party members urging for them to support her former adviser Katie Hall. There is another prospective candidate in Kimberley Kitching, a former Melbourne councillor, current acting general manager tasked with restoring order to Health Services Union No. 1 branch, and wife of VexNews provocateur Andrew Landeryou. Gordon reports the Turkish community is emerging as a source of support for Kitching, as Conroy has roused its opposition by refusing to offer up the state seat of Footscray to the “so-called Turkish bloc”.
• The preselection to replace Richard Torbay as Nationals candidate for New England will be held in Tamworth on April 13. Barnaby Joyce will certainly be a starter, but there have been suggestions he will or should face opposition from Nationals Farmers Federation president Alexander “Jock” Laurie, including from Calare MP John Cobb.
• With the state election out of the way, WA Labor is now proceeding with federal election preselection processes, chief among which is determining its Senate election ticket and filling the casual vacancy caused by the retirement of Chris Evans. Suggestions Labor might be reduced to one Senate seat in Western Australia mean that more than prestige is at stake in ordering the top two positions on the election ticket. The two incumbents are Louise Pratt of the AMWU Left and Mark Bishop of the SDA Right, with the latter generally expected to be deposed by Joe Bullock, who succeeded him as the SDA’s state secretary. Other nominees are former state Bassendean MP Martin Whitely, a critic of party preselection processes generally and the Joe Bullock ascendancy in particular; Brett Treby, a Wanneroo councillor who ran for the state seat of Wanneroo; John Welch, secretary of the Western Australian Prison Officers’ Union; Kelly Shay, assistant state secretary of United Voice; and Sue Lines, assistant national secretary of United Voice.
• Sue Lines is getting more attention for her parallel nomination to succeed Chris Evans, a position claimed by the powerful United Voice sub-faction of the Left. Lines is rated as one of two-front runners along with Sharryn Jackson, who won the lower house seat of Hasluck in 2001 and 2007 and lost it in 2004 and 2010. The aforementioned Martin Whitely, John Welch and Kelly Shea have also nominated for the Evans vacancy, together with Linda Morich and Ashburton councillor Peter Foster. Both matters are scheduled to be determined at a state executive meeting on April 15.
Finally, a review of Newspoll’s performance at the WA election and some related musings on the two-party preferred measure. The scorecard for Newspoll reads thus:
2PP ALP L-NP GRN Result 57.5? 33.1 53.2 8.4 Newspoll 59.5 32 54 8 Difference +2.0? -1.1 +0.8 -0.4
This is a very sound result, with all primary votes well within the margin of error. However, it’s worth noting that it’s the eighth pre-election Newspoll out of the last nine to shoot low on the Labor primary vote, and the seventh to do so by more than a percentage point – remembering that in most cases two-party preferred ended up near the mark because support for the Greens had been overstated (although this hasn’t been evident on the two most recent occasions).
Keeping in mind that my two-party result is based on incomplete data, Newspoll’s two-party preferred result proved less accurate than the primary votes, which is largely down to an issue with two-party preferred calculations involving the Liberals and Nationals. Newspoll looks to have followed the usual method of simply combining the two and then distributing minor party preferences between the two major parties, but this doesn’t account for the fact that in three-cornered contests some Liberal and Nationals votes end up in the Labor pile when the contest is boiled down to Labor-versus-Liberal or Labor-versus-Nationals for two-party purposes. This is of little concern at federal elections, where competitive Nationals-versus-Liberal contests are uncommon. However, the WA election had no fewer than 17 three-cornered contests out of 59 seats, with both Liberal and Nationals polling strongly in most cases.
It should be noted that it makes a difference whether a Labor-versus-Liberal or Labor-versus-Nationals count is used, because Nationals voters are more likely to preference against their coalition partners than Liberal voters. This seems to be especially pronounced in those regional corners of the state where the Nationals have won a new constituency of former Labor voters who are still not keen on the Liberals. The precise result of the final two-party result will thus be influenced by the WAEC’s ruling on whether it conducts Labor-versus-Nationals or Labor-versus-Liberal counts in the eight seats where such counts remain to be published. In 2008 they went Labor-versus-Liberal in each case, which meant the Nationals were only used in seats where the final count had been between them and Labor (I believe this only applied to Pilbara, where only 7517 formal votes were cast, and that this will again be the case this time). The results were thus more favourable to Labor than they might have been if the WAEC had employed an alternative rationale, such as conducting Nationals-versus-Labor counts where the seat was won by the Nationals, as was the case in six of the eight seats with counts still outstanding.
Compact Crank
Thang is you have spent most, all (?), your working life on the teat of the taxpayer.
Of course to be fair to cc most alp staffers would have zero idea of what unemployment is too.
CC
I remember once hearing a top New York police officer being interviewed on radio – he said that, when he first looked at our welfare system, he thought it was outrageous. He couldn’t understand why there was any incentive to work.
He then looked at our crime statistics – and was all for it.
What you’re advocating is leaving young people and long term unemployed without any support. Which means their only alternative – because whilst you are receiving welfare, the emphasis is on finding you work – is crime.
America has a great pea and thimble trick. Doesn’t spend huge amounts on welfare. Has a huge proportion of its population in prison.
Far, far cheaper to keep someone on welfare.
There is no doubt that the cost of employment is an issue for small business and Governments are partly to blame for they have imposed a range of administrative cost onto employers.
Both sides of politics have dropped the ball when it comes to helping small business and i don’t see either side even looking like they are going to address the issues.
Zoomster
That is very true but what the Liberals like Crank seem to overlook is that its about keeping people within the loop that may enable them to gain employment.
The worst thing a Government can do is set up a system that by default locked people out of the mainstream because they were unfortunate enough to miss out due to circumstances.
People like Crank appear to forget that the ideas of welfare come not from a bleeding heart view but from people in many cases conservatives seeing that in times of economic downturns like the Great Depression, Government need to support those that cannot look after themselves.
@BernardKeane: Abbott dogs it: he has nothing to say about Fitch maintaining Australia’s credit rating http://t.co/pVJJUtr4nk
[Compact Crank
Thang is you have spent most, all (?), your working life on the teat of the taxpayer.]
Hey CC, Steers or Queers?
Which one are you?
[There is no doubt that the cost of employment is an issue for small business…]
This is a complex issue but many small businesses probably should not be in business.
BB’s excuse for no action on media reform was akin to ‘the dog ate my homework’ – I asked for a plausible reason …
“@watermelon_man: Tell you what – Fitch could start doing “Credibility Ratings” on political parties. You up for it Tony?”
[Of course to be fair to cc most alp staffers would have zero idea of what unemployment is too.]
Your point being, I guess, that there’s been so little of it during their time in office.
rua
[This is a complex issue but many small businesses probably should not be in business.]
You may well be right, but while they continue they are not dependent on the public purse.
Unlike some/many in the military
ruawake
To a point i agree but even so small business is a vital part of the economy and Governments from both sides should take greater care to ensure that their policies are not inflicting a burden on that import sector.
Over half of all Australian are employed in small business.
“@SwannyDPM: Opp say they’ve ‘nothing to fear’ from this new audit – we’re all looking forward to them now releasing their costs #pigsmightfly”
A little something for Crank & co
http://news.efinancialcareers.com/137316/where-laid-off-bankers-can-claim-102k-in-unemployment-benefits/
Poroti @2401
Yes you’re right.
Didn’t have do anything to get a Commission through Duntroon.
It’s less than half my working life. I’ve also built my own business from scratch providing employment and paid a shed load of taxes.
The only welfare I’ve ever got is the baby bonus and that’s not really up to me.
[@BernardKeane: Abbott dogs it: he has nothing to say about Fitch maintaining Australia’s credit rating http://t.co/pVJJUtr4nk%5D
Question for keen reporter at Abbott’s next presser.
“Mr Abbott, on what basis did you refuse to comment on the latest Fitch AAA rating for Australia’s economy?”
Crank
Ex serving personnal are very well looked after, the DVA Gold Card is a system that is very supportive of those that have put their lives at risk.
a little note to those like the crank
when i post here its not for YOU, its for the poor sods who lurk and do not read on line media
i make my point and leave,, so dont waste you time writing back to me,
and we all know that interest rates are higher with the liberals, and so is unemployment,
and bulk billing is very low under liberals
thats just a couple of issues
in their right mind would vote lib,
of course we also realise the hours they spend here they
must not be too sure of the polls if so wouldnt they be out fishing or doiing some thing for themselves’\
they have nothing to say only one liners
who would ever risk voting for a party that has NO policies.
yes my money will be safer under my bed,
now i will endulge in some chocolates if abbott where to
get in,,, next year will be very bleak for pensioners and families i suggest you buy your easter eggs
at the sales for next year
[Over half of all Australian are employed in small business.]
A deceptive statistic. Many Australians are sole traders and contractors they may employ a family members.
The only thing they have in common is Costello made them tax collectors, so much so the Australian distributor of MYOB bought the Canadian company.
Not exactly people in politics like alp staffers aren’t exposed to a market – other than the electoral cycle and even that is mitigated by federal/ state governments of opposite persuasions being in and out at different times.
[2403
zoomster
CC
I remember once hearing a top New York police officer being interviewed on radio – he said that, when he first looked at our welfare system, he thought it was outrageous. He couldn’t understand why there was any incentive to work.
He then looked at our crime statistics – and was all for it.
What you’re advocating is leaving young people and long term unemployed without any support. Which means their only alternative – because whilst you are receiving welfare, the emphasis is on finding you work – is crime.
America has a great pea and thimble trick. Doesn’t spend huge amounts on welfare. Has a huge proportion of its population in prison.]
The other objection to CC’s position is ethical. By his standard, the incentive available to the rich is ever great wealth, and the incentive available to the poor is the threat of increasingly less.
This could almost be convincing, except that wealth is transmitted between generations. It follows that the poor are doomed to remain in poverty while the prosperous may look forward to increasingly concentrated wealth, which is exactly what is happening in the US, where economic mobility between generations has just about completely seized up.
Ru
A sole trader is classed as small business according to the Accounting standards taught in Accounting courses.
[2416
Compact Crank
Didn’t have do anything to get a Commission through Duntroon.
It’s less than half my working life. I’ve also built my own business from scratch providing employment and paid a shed load of taxes.
The only welfare I’ve ever got is the baby bonus and that’s not really up to me.]
I find this difficult to believe. How is it possible for someone so doctrinaire and so impractical to run anything ?
[The only welfare I’ve ever got is the baby bonus and that’s not really up to me.]
Please explain? Or maybe don’t it sounds too er weird.
“I find this difficult to believe. How is it possible for someone so doctrinaire and so impractical to run anything ?”
Autocratically! :devil:
I think ruawake it means that depended on the donor.
CC
which means – using the Liberal party’s own definition of ‘public servant’ – that for a large part of your career you were a public servant.
Your wages were paid by the taxpayer.
I take it you also got a University education – at the taxpayers’ expense? Did you have a HECS debt at all?
Zoomster just pwned Crank
Now off to fetch a helmet
[A sole trader is classed as small business according to the Accounting standards taught in Accounting courses.]
But they employ maybe a family member. Sometimes it will be staff numbers, other times turnover.
We are even seeing the term micro business, I know someone who turns over $1 million a month and has no employees.
“I take it you also got a University education – at the taxpayers’ expense? Did you have a HECS debt at all?”
No HECS debt.
It is no coincidence that officers are referred to as “Ruperts”
baby bonus, cc? Let’s see…early adult life in the ADF…maybe retiring around the age of 45, now pushing 65 or more…BB introduced in Australia in 2002…are you trying to tell us you were still propagating just 10 years ago? More unlikely propaganda, CC…more false claims from IPA show-bag.
guytaur@2354
Ru
I agree with your last post
And the minimum wage system should be scrapped. It stops the unemoyed getting paid work.
And where are these people working in sweatshops for, say, $200 per week? In favelas on the edges of our cities? Of course the big end of town wants to make as much money as they can, be the sole arbiters of wages, conditions, consumer protection and business ethics, not be bothered by externalities like the environment and pay as little tax as they can get away with. That doesn’t make it right.
Middle class welfare is different. That is mostly churning PAYE taxpayers’ earnings, so it’s mostly not their problem. And does not put any sort of floor under wages and salaries like real welfare.
[2433
Kevin Bonham]
The election should be about one thing and one thing only – Will the LNP, if they are elected and carry out their promises? And if they do, how will they prevent a recession? The frightening thing about Abbott is not that he has no policies – on the contrary, what is frightening are those things he has promised to do. He will raise taxes, cut spending and kick start a recession.
He will
compact crank @2393
I’ve heard this argument from some self-styled free marketeers. I consider myself to be a fully-fledged free marketeer/economic rationalist, but I don’t agree with it in the Australian context.
The sorts of people who go straight from school to the dole are under-educated and unmotivated. For the most part they are poor whites, Aborigines or Pacific Islanders.
If you remove their social security payments and also drop the minimum wage, they will be forced to go and work somewhere for peanuts. But which employers really need this sort of labour? Manufacturing is not a growth sector these days, and the businesses that are still thriving tend increasingly to have highly-skilled workforces. The service sector is looking for people who are motivated enough to provide good service.
What society needs the perennial welfare recipients to do is to get motivated and take advantage of the educational opportunities available to them. They must be given incentives to do this. The apprenticeship system – which hasn’t changed much since the Victorian era – presents a major barrier. It needs to be fixed. The avenues for going back and completing school and then going on to post-school education need to be opened up: and this has been happening to a certain extent for young sole parents and other people who’ve fallen out of the school system but have subsequently become more motivated.
There will always be a hard core of people who would really, truly prefer to live on unemployment benefits than ever bother to try to become employable. I truly reckon it’s better to pay these people sit down money to stay out of the labour market, where they would otherwise be exercising a distorting effect on the wage/skill ratio.
[ Turned out that election wasn’t about economic management.]
I beg to differ, the 2007 election was about rising inflation and thus rising interest rates, that is why cost of living pressure was the main theme in 2007.
meher baba 2437
Top post
I agree and i would add what about those that have a disability that may not be suitable for the structure of education which lets be polite doesn’t help the disabled unless its changed since i left school many moons ago.
The disabled are quite often pigeonholed holed when if given the opportunity to perform they can.
The system doesn’t work for the disabled it works against them and this is what needs to be addressed.
[Of course to be fair to cc most alp staffers would have zero idea of what unemployment is too.
Your point being, I guess, that there’s been so little of it during their time in office.]
I imagine quite a few will be finding out in six months.
Agree 2437 spot on.
What do people think about the union push for 18 year olds to get paid the same as 20 year olds?
The interesting thing dio will be how much warehousing goes on in the next 6 months.the best option is federal public service appointments.
Also dio if you assume 50 alp seats and the loto staff entitlement there’s still a lot of people who will survive der untergang plus warehousing with unions.
ESJ
What’s warehousing?
[I imagine quite a few will be finding out in six months.]
A few found out Thurs before last.
[What do people think about the union push for 18 year olds to get paid the same as 20 year olds?]
We deem 18 to be an adult in other areas of life, why not in work?
Mb @2415
France???
An 18 year old should still be in education therefore should not be expecting adult wages.
Warehousing is the practice of keeping valued staffers or people seen as having potential for the future employed on other staffs or with friendly unions until better electoral times come along.
For example Wayne swan was warehoused on Kim Beazleys staff in 1996 when he lost the seat of Lilley for the first time.