Still a fair bit up in the air, with Antony Green’s switching off of booth-matching on the ABC computer likely to cause a bit of confusion. I believe this has produced changes to the predictions provided for Belmont and Collie-Preston (both now “Labor ahead”), and also for Eyre (from Liberal retain to Nationals ahead), which you can learn more about below. Assuming I’m still capable of counting okay at this hour, I think the most likely result is Liberal 34, Labor 19 and Nationals 6.
Liberal gains from Labor: Balcatta, Forrestfield, Joondalup, Morley (notional), Perth and probably but not definitely Belmont, Kimberley and Collie-Preston.
Nationals gains from Labor: Pilbara.
Liberal gains from independent: Churchlands, Alfred Cove.
Liberal gains from Nationals: Warren-Blackwood.
Nationals gains from independent: Kalgoorlie.
Labor gains from independent: Fremantle.
So the Nationals might not have done as well as you think, probably having a net gain of one seat in the lower house and a net loss of one in the upper. And despite some speculation of a Greens wipeout during the count, they appear more likely than not to retain seats in South Metropolitan and Mining & Pastoral – though you should treat anything I say about upper house counts at this hour with caution.
First up, the following table breaks down the swings against Labor for various parts of the metropolitan area, at both this election and the last. The regions are much the same as when I conducted a similar exercise in 2008, with the following changes: Perth, Balcatta, Mount Lawley, Morley, Maylands, Midland, Girrawheen and Nollamara have been hived off Eastern Suburbs to form Inner North; Swan Hills and West Swan are out on their own in Swan Valley; and Inland Outskirts has been absorbed by Eastern Suburbs.
2013 2008 Outer North (5) -10.7% -3.3% South-Eastern (3) -9.7% -4.8% Inner North (7) -7.5% -7.7% Western/Riverside (9) -6.6% -6.1% Eastern Suburbs (10) -5.0% -4.0% Southern (6) -2.3% -4.5% Swan Valley (2) -1.7% -6.6%
Outer North (5 seats). The 2008 election bucked the usual pattern wherein the northern suburbs moved en bloc to the winning party when there was a change of government, with Mindarie (now Butler) and Joondalup holding out against the tide. This time the elastic snapped, with a trio of Liberal sophomores (Andrea Mitchell in Kingsley, Albert Jacob in Ocean Reef and Paul Miles in Wanneroo) enjoying double-digit swings. There were smaller swings in the two Labor-held seats, but the 7.7% swing was more than enough to take out Tony O’Gorman’s 3.3% margin in Joondalup, while John Quigley’s margin in Butler was sliced from 10.4% to 2.1%.
South-Eastern (3 seats). Wherein three Liberal sophomores, Frank Abetz in Southern River, Mike Nahan in Riverton and Joe Francis in Jandakot, picked up swings of 15.5%, 7.4% and 6.1%.
Inner North (7 seats). The heavy swing against Labor in this area cost them Perth (7.7% margin, 10.3% swing), Morley (notional 0.8% margin, 5.3% swing) and Balcatta (2.2%, 9.6%). Contrary to expectations it might be a show for Labor, the Liberla margin in Mount Lawley blew out by 9.9%. Labor margins were substantially reduced in Maylands and Mirrabooka (5.9% and 7.6%), but Margaret Quirk did better in Girrawheen (3.9%), as she needed to coming off a margin of 6.7%.
Western/Riverside (9 seats). The Liberals recovered the formerly independent seats of Churchlands and Alfred Cove, Janet Woollard doing hardly better than Adele Carles in the latter. Swings were mild in Cottesloe and Nedlands, stronger further afield in Bateman and Scarborough.
Eastern Suburbs (10 seats). Labor did unusually well in Gosnells, where Chris Tallentire defended his margin of 4.8% against a swing of just 1.0%, but Michelle Roberts received a fright off a 7.9% swing in Midland. Belmont was being discussed as done and dusted, but the switching off of booth-matching shows a raw Labor lead of 0.6%. The key to this is that no pre-polls have been added, which were nearly 6% better for Liberal than the overall result in 2008.
Southern Suburbs (6 seats). One of Labor’s relative bright spots was a very limited swing in the southern coastal corridor. Last I looked Roger Cook appeared in trouble again from Kwinana mayor and independent candidate Carol Adams, but he looks to have come home strongly and holds a raw lead of 802 votes.
Swan Valley (2 seats). The Ellenbrook effect well in evidence with swings of 1.7% in both Swan Hills and West Swan, which respectively stayed Liberal and Labor.
Elsewhere, from top down:
Kimberley. A four-way humdinger with the Liberal candidate on 26.5%, the Greens with a James Price Point-engorged 25.9%, Labor on 21.6% and the Nationals on a surprisingly modest 20.8%. With Labor and the Greens directing preferences to Liberal ahead of Nationals, it seems to me most likely that the Liberals will win the seat. Amid an otherwise grim night, the Greens could end up within impressive proximity of victory at the final count.
Pilbara. Brendon Grylls did it easily, driving the Nationals vote up 17.5% to 40.2%, Labor down 14.4% to 29.0%, and the Liberals in third on 22.8%, up 3.5%.
North West Central. No preference count is available, but with Labor finishing third, it comes down to 44.9% for Vince Catania and 26.5% for the Liberal. Labor and the Greens have both preferenced the Liberal, but presumably there should be enough leakage to get Catania up.
Kalgoorlie. Further emphasising the point that this electorate’s Labor-voting days are in the past, Labor finished a distant third with 17.9% to 38.0% for both the Nationals and the Liberals. Nationals candidate Wendy Duncan holds a decisive 1.8% lead over the Liberal after preferences.
Mandurah and Dawesville. These followed the southern metropolitan pattern, in swinging only 1.3% and 1.7%.
Collie-Preston. Mick Murray holds a raw 62-vote lead, so the seat has flipped to Labor ahead on the ABC computer. Labor leads that narrow tend not to survive late counting; the big outstanding bloc of votes in absents, which should get the Liberals over the line if they follow the 2008 pattern, but the change in boundaries means they might not. So Liberals the favourite, but still in doubt.
Warren-Blackwood. A likely Nationals loss, with the sitting member Terry Redman down to 34.3% on the primary vote. There’s no preference count here, so the ABC’s 2.5% margin for the Liberals is based on Antony’s educated guess. Given the Liberals appear the more likely winner in Kimberley, the most likely outcome for the Nationals is in fact a modest net gain of one seat.
Albany. Yet another tremendous performance by Peter Watson, whose raw 776 vote should be more than enough to see off anything late counting can throw at him.
Eyre. Another turn-up from the switching off of booth matching on the indispensible ABC computer is that the Nationals are in fact 74 votes ahead in Eyre, held for the Liberals by Graham Jacobs. This is a very strong performance for them against a sitting member and in the face of Labor preferences to the Liberals.
Now for a very superficial reading of the upper house.
East Metropolitan: Looking like three and three, Labor leading the Greens 11.0% to 8.0% at the key second last exclusion.
North Metropolitan: The thumping swing to the Liberals has delivered them a fourth seat, squeezing out the Greens.
South Metropolitan: Of the Greens’ four seats, the ABC projection has them retaining two, one being Lynn MacLaren’s seat. Can’t see any alternative outcome to three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens.
South West: The ABC computer has Family First nabbing a seat from the Nationals off just 1.44% of the vote. However, they are delicately placed at Count 9 of the ABC projection, leading the fourth Liberal 5.96% to 5.12%. Should they fall behind, the Nationals will win the seat instead. So it’s three Liberal, two Labor and one Nationals or Family First.
Agricultural: A disappointing show by Max Trenorden appears to have resulted in a seat going to Shooters & Fishers, who remarkably seem to have scored preferences from Labor and the Greens as well as the more usual suspects. The result thus becomes two for the Nationals (down one), two for the Liberals (steady), one for Labor (steady) and one Shooters & Fishers.
Mining & Pastoral: Robin Chapple of the Greens will hold on to his seat if he can stay ahead of the second Labor candidate, whom he leads 9.9% to 6.7% at the relevant exclusion on the ABC projection. So the most likely result is two Liberal (steady), two Nationals (up one), one Labor (down one) and one Greens (steady).
Finally, it was another good night for Newspoll, although they appeared to have the Coalition a bit too high on two-party preferred. On the primary vote, the current numbers are 47.2% Liberal, 6.0% Nationals, 33.6% Labor and 7.9% Greens, while Newspoll had it at 48%, 6%, 32% and 8%.
I have always voted Greens (in Fremantle) but didn’t this time, because I didn’t like the candidate’s ideas.
Re Green’s preferences – they seemed to have preferenced against the Nationals, perhaps in some fit over GMO trials, but if they have eliminated Terry Redman, one of the better MPs, and even worse, elected a Shooters and Fishers candidate, then I won’t be considering them again for a long time.
I think we can all be glad that Dean Nalder is replacing Janet Woollard – he looks like talent.
The Kimberley electorate may not be decided for a week. It looks reasonable to assume that Labor should retain enough of the absent and remote votes to leapfrog the Greens at the final exclusion with the final TPP count to be again between Labor and the Liberals.
The Nats appear certain to be the first of the four majors to be excluded. They would need a massive swing to them in the remotes to get past Labor or the Greens on primaries and that won’t happen.
In 2008 Labor outpolled the Greens by 937 to 113 votes in the remotes and by 198 to 114 in absentee votes. Anything more than a 400 vote margin among these voters this time would see Labor get to second. It could then be a close go between Labor and Liberal on TPP. If the Greens however get say 400 votes from the remotes and Labor drop to say 600, the overall battle between them and Labor for second place could be decided on stray Nationals preferences.
My guess would be that those few Nats voters who don’t preference Liberal would be more likely to lean to Labor than Green for 2nd preference. But who knows, especially in an electorate such as this one.
Broome saw a 19.0 collapse in Labor’s primary vote to a pitiful 15.9 including an extremely sobering 9.7 at the Roebuck Primary School booth. The Greens recorded a 38.1 primary vote overall in Broome which would have had them win 3 of the 4 booths against the Liberals on TPP. Greens gains were more modest elsewhere although they did get a 9.8 swing in Halls Creek and a 5.4 swing in Wyndham.
There is little doubt that the Greens’ apparent TPP win in Broome will further energize local opposition to the proposed construction of the gas refinery in the area.
Labor was on the receiving end of primary swings in Kununurra of -14.2 to 19.4, Wyndham -29.9 to 31.6, Halls Creek -13.2 to 38.2, and Derby -9.7 to 30.0. Their only positive performance by booth was in Fitzroy Crossing where they increased their primary by 3.1 to 51.5.
The Nats as expected performed strongly in Kununurra, increasing their primary there to 41.9, but lost considerable ground in Broome and couldn’t quite make up for it elsewhere. The Liberals increased their primary in Broome but lost those gains everywhere else for a status quo result that could yet get them over the line after preferences.
Whatever the outcome this week, the politics in this seat over the next four years will be very interesting. Even if they hold on this time, Labor look to be caught in an awkward wedge between conservationists and the resources industry in a steadily building war that doesn’t show any sign of lessening.
There will continue to be a lot of local discussion regarding the merits of Labor’s decision to align themselves so strongly with the board of the Kimberley Land Council. Just under half of the electorate is Indigenous. The Land Council has a hard core following, but there are also a considerable number of countrymen who see it as a purple circle not always necessarily representing their best interests.
If the Libs get over the line expect a lot of demos outside their member’s electorate office in Broome. It will become an international magnet for protesters.
Meanwhile Popcorn…
[but there are also a considerable number of countrymen who see it as a purple circle not always necessarily representing their best interests.]
What does that mean?
I’m told the Libs think they will win Midland on the late counting.
Look on the bright side.
You could always:
1. Reinvent yourselves, dismantle your factional system, use your members to help choose candidates and have a serious talk about whether being the mouthpiece of unions is really a good strategy if Labor is to be a party of government in the 21st Century.
2. Sack your marketing staff, let your seatless MPs have a holiday overseas and go visit countries where Labo(u)r parties still write good policy rather than listen to bloody focus groups.
3. Take good notes this time when the coalition has wall to wall governments. Use what works and do go near what doesn’t.
Tell you what though.. Labor pretty much sucks as any kind of party to actually run stuff at the moment.
Psephos,
There is a perception among Indigenous Kimberley people that some members benefit from the Land Council’s actions far more than others and indeed at times to the exclusion of others. Rightly or wrongly.
I can see a reasonably legitimate view from WA Labor that they were supporting the primary Indigenous entity in the region. I guess the point I am making is that there are many Indigenous people in Broome and various other parts of the Kimberley who are very cynical about the KLC leadership and its present direction.
If Labor hold the seat they will have to give a bit more support than they have previously to the member – which will be difficult considering their losses elsewhere.
In some ways I am thinking that this might be one of those times in the cycle when it is best to just lose than just win.
For example if the Lib wins you can guarantee it that her office will be a magnet for environmental protests that get world attention.
If Labor wins they will be araldyted into a position that will see them facing being overtaken by the Greens in 2017. The Kimberley is likely to become increasingly an environmental battleground.
For me it raises questions of which way Labor will go in future. Will they stick fat with the opportunities for the well paid FIFO workforce at the expense of other social/environmental considerations?
Which way would win them more seats in the western Sydney’s of this country? Realistically the Kimberley is probably sliding further and further into Greens territory where the types of policies needed to win it are likely to cost seats elsewhere.
Labor looks to have Buckley’s of winning the overlapping federal seat of Durack, where the interest now is whether the Nats can knock off the Liberal member Barry Haase. Labor and Green preferences will decide it between the Nats and Libs.
Intersting that in the face of a concerted Greens and Wilderness Society Campaigns against Browse/James Price Point that, outside of the NIMBYs of Broome/Kimberly, the Greens were hung drawn and quartered. Good thing they dissolved the Coalition with the ALP.
Norwester:
[ The Kimberley electorate may not be decided for a week. It looks reasonable to assume that Labor should retain enough of the absent and remote votes to leapfrog the Greens at the final exclusion with the final TPP count to be again between Labor and the Liberals. ]
That’s unless the bottom falls out of Labor’s vote in the outback, like it did in the NT. If that happened it’d be a Lib vs Green final two, with the Libs probably winning.
The WAEC have a two-party count for Warren-Blackwood online, which they took down last night to avoid confusion because not all booths had reported their count. Now they have published the result with all the booths in, it actually looks like Terry Redman is safe – 9814 (52.82%) to 8766 (47.18%) to the Liberal.
Phew. That’s one less reason to be annoyed at the Greens, then. Helping the Shooters and Fishers get into parliament (instead of Trenorden, who was on their side over Tier 3) is probably the dumbest preferencing decision since One Nation helped Dee Margetts win in 2001.
Also, the ABC is now showing the Nats winning the last SW seat. FF are ahead of Lib #4 and get their preferences, but end up 0.02 of a quota behind the Nats. That one’s gonna take a while to figure out.
Remote booths on Kimberley broke strongly in Labor’s favour equal to, maybe even slightly better then previous elections. Predict Labor will retain Kimberley by a similar margin as last time. Involvement of the KLC in ALP preselection is nonsense spread by disgruntled ex-MP Shelley Archer – it was after all, a contested preselection right up until the 11th hour which the conspiracy theorists often forget.
Arrnea Stormbringer said
“That said, the biggest swing in a Labor/Liberal race came in Ocean Reef, a seat where the 17% swing really was wasted… which plays into what I was pointing out earlier in the campaign about “wasted” swings.”
I don’t know how you can say that, the swing was about 7%, if the swing was uniform, that would deliver the Liberals 8 seats, the ALP are expected to go backward by 9 seats
The swing was higher to the north and to areas that had lower swings last time
What makes a state being crucified by heatwaves and rainfall decline vote for more AGW denial? As a sandgroper born & bred, this vote supports my decision to leave.
Actually, Labor is expected to have a net loss of exactly 7 seats. 26 seats before the election (not the 28 they won at the last election – they lost Fremantle to the Greens in a by-election and Vince Catania defected to the Nationals, remember?)
However, my point was a continuation of what I said before the election – that it’s possible for there to be a swing recorded in the state-wide polls without a corresponding change of seats… if the swings are “wasted” on seats that are already held by the party that is gaining the swing.
This is what happened in Ocean Reef – the Liberals gained a large swing in a seat they already held. That seat’s large individual swing would have had a (small) effect on the overall state polling, but the size of the swing to the Liberals in that seat was immaterial as the Liberals were going to retain it even without a swing.
On that note, the ABC computer is now giving Labor 20 seats. Apparently one of the seats they thought was going Liberal will be going ALP after all.
Anybody know which one it is?
Today’s Mumble on the WA election.
https://sslcam.news.com.au/cam/authorise?channel=pc&url=http%3a%2f%2fblogs.theaustralian.news.com.au%2fmumble%2findex.php%2ftheaustralian%2fcomments%2fwe_expected_this_didnt_we%2f
arrnea
Sorry, I still do not know how you can make that claim, when the ALP lost/might lose the following seat by the following swing
Pilbara 18.6%, Perth 10.3%, Balcutta 9.6%, Jondaalap 7.7%, Morley 5.3% and might lose Kimberley 9.3%, Midland 7.9% and Belmont 7.3%.
When 7 close seats swung by over 7%, and the pendulum closely predicted the amount of seats lost, I do not think you could make the following claim
“that it’s possible for there to be a swing recorded in the state-wide polls without a corresponding change of seats”
dovif, you seem to be under the impression that I’m saying that the effect I refer to happened this time – it clearly didn’t and to claim otherwise would be lunacy… and I’m not claiming it.
What I’m saying is that it’s *possible* and that the kinds of swings we saw in already-Liberal seats like Ocean Reef (and Wanneroo) would be what you could see in such a case. Please pay more careful attention in future to what exactly I’m claiming in my posts before trying to demolish an argument I’m not making.
To be more specific, I was outlining (before the election) a scenario that would be:
a) Possible
b) consistent with statewide polls showing a swing to the Liberals, and
c) producing a Labor victory
Therefore possibilities, not likelihoods or certainties, was the context.
As for the pendulum – it might have been close on the number of seats, but it was wrong on a couple of seats that Labor retained, where the pendulum would suggest they would have fallen on that swing – instead we saw seats like Perth fall from beyond the swing.
The possibility I was suggesting was an extension of the very real phenomenon of uneven swings.
Arrnea – it is possible that Megan Gale will rung me up and ask me out to dinner. It is also possible that the WA Lotteries Commission finally agrees to draw out my Lotto numbers.
Anyone want to analyse why the Greens vote collapsed in WA? Very high visibility campaign run by the Wilderness society during the campaign about the Kimberley. Apart from the Broome/Kimberley NIMBY vote, the Greens lost 35% of their voters.
Staunch ALP supporters will point to the -2.2% swing against the ALP and say that it wasn’t too bad. They ignore the fact that what is most likely to have happened is that the Greens lost 4% to ALP and the ALP lost 6.2% to the Libs/Nats.
Actually, it’s only possible that she might ring you up – she can’t have already rung you up, or you’d know about it.
Like dovif, you’re failing to see (or deliberately ignoring) the context in which my comments have been made.
As for the Greens vote collapse, I would say it’s a few things:
a) Part of the generalised swing to the right across the state, as a result of both the sophomore surge for the Libs/Nats and the dissatisfaction with federal politics,
b) the stepping-down of Bob Brown as Greens leader federally since the last election – whether you liked him or not, he arguably had more presence than Milne,
c) center-left voters that previously voted Green figuring that the best way for them to try and prevent a Liberal victory was to vote Labor…
Other possible contributors are some odd strategic gambles by the Greens, such as moving Giz Watson to the South West, where she has failed to win her party a seat, or curious preference deals done in various seats.
I’m also wondering about the Greens – I didn’t vote for them this time because of the particular candidate in Freo, but maybe the Carles affair made the ‘green brand’ look a bit like a circus?
If people bothered to look at Hansard they would see that Adele’s speeches and votes always represented Green values/policies, but it’s image that counts …..
Theoretically, it is possible for the ALP to win 25.4% of the vote, win 30 electorate by 50.01% 2PP and loses the other 29 electorate by 100%-0, so I guess it is “possible”
But it certainly did not happened at this election and this election certainly does not give any indication that it is likely to ever happen
As for the Greens, I think the Greens are a protest party, that works much better outside government, then within government. Apart from the ACT, any ALP government that formed a partnership with the Greens had been destroyed at the next election. The question is whether federally this will hold
Malcolm Mackerras’s pendulum works on the likelihood that some seats swing more than expected and others swing less, the two pretty well cancelling each other out in terms of seats won and lost.
64 “On that note, the ABC computer is now giving Labor 20 seats. Apparently one of the seats they thought was going Liberal will be going ALP after all.
Anybody know which one it is?”
Maybe Collie-Preston? http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2013/guide/coll.htm
Collie-Preston: Labor ahead by 62
Belmont: Libs ahead by 74
Midland: Labor ahead by 142
Kimberley: a three-way Lib-Nat-ALP tie, with Labor still a possible win
“Kimberley: a three-way Lib-Nat-ALP tie, with Labor still a possible win”
Shouldn’t this be a 4-way tie in Kimberley?
The Greens are currently polling 2nd on primary votes. Labor may catch up to them (although they’re 329 votes behind at the moment, having only made up 2 votes from the 138 absentee votes added today), but the Nationals look unlikely to catch up the Greens.
I’ve no idea where all the preferences are likely to go – the booth counts in this seat vary wildly from region to region & I understand the votes from remote Aboriginal communities are still to be added – but the Greens votes are obviously in the mix. My guess would be if Greens dropped out before Labor, there would be a stronger preference flow to Labor than if the reverse happened, but I think we’ll just have to wait and see – the Greens candidate has a strong personal following in the Broome part of the electorate, but even though it’s lower in other parts of the seat, it’s still up on the norm for the Greens.
Labor currently 6 votes ahead on the two party preferred count in Collie-Preston. There are still Provisional votes to be added (which I presume aren’t many) but I don’t know if all the absentee votes have been counted already, or just a proportion.
I feel for the candidates – must be excruciating waiting for the count to be finished.
“Shouldn’t this be a 4-way tie in Kimberley?”
The Nats aren’t a chance.
I was quoting the Election Commssion guy. He said it’s a three-way race.
I don’t have any special insight into on the ground factors in Kimberley, but it’s hard to call something a 3-way race when there is a ‘4th candidate’ who is currently clearly beating 2 of those in the ‘3-wat race’.
But anyway, all we can do is sit back and wait and see what the count provides.
Uh, no the Nat candidate is firmly in 4th place
http://www.elections.wa.gov.au/results/sg2013/la/KIM
I finally have a late counting thread open for business:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/03/11/wa-election-late-counting/
Maybe it is a 3-way race in Kimberley, but the Greens have to be one of those 3. Seems it’s a Lib/Grn/ALP 3-way, with the Nats dropping out of the count before the others. (Hard to see the preferences from Ind/ACP changing that scenario)
Great stuff William B
I’ll make any further comments over at your late counting thread.
Rossmcg, I grew up in Belmont and still go through there regularly. A few high-rise over-priced flats on the river, and a bit of State Housing clearance, doesn’t change a suburb. What about Cloverdale, Rivervale, Kewdale, Redcliffe. Still solidly working class suburbs with a fair number of migrants as well. Should be Labor’s bread and butter as Eric Ripper proved when he won 43.5% of first preferences in 2008 and 56.7% of the two party preferred vote. It hasn’t changed all that much since then. And Forrestfield and Morley? Are you calling those natural Liberal seats as well?
Jonthinks:
I used to live in Cloverdale, and I still remember the burnouts in the street behind me when our back-fence neighbours decided to have a party. There’s a reason it’s one of the most “affordable” suburbs that close to the city.
Once I went to one of those “meet the local member” thingys at the local rec centre, featuring Eric Ripper and a bunch of (mostly) old folks. In the question time bit, I asked him something like “why do the eastern suburbs get the oldest, crappiest buses in the Transperth fleet, and why are they so thin on the ground anywhere east of Belmont Forum outside peak hour?” I’d recently moved there from Armadale, and it was taking me almost the same amount of time to get to UWA as it had done from the scungy west side of Armadale. He spent a few minutes waffling and not really answering my question. Main effect on me was that I “forgot” to update my enrolment, and voted very happily for Alannah MacTiernan at the old address. He was a nice, friendly bloke, but it still annoyed me. He’d been in parliament longer than most other Labor MP’s, including MacTiernan, and he couldn’t even get that favour for the suburb?
(Meanwhile, now it’s a Lib seat, they’ll probably put some of the old MTT-era buses back into service on the oh-so-charming 39 to Redclife via Cloverdale.)
Morley, I’m thinking of something over at Tally Room one of the commenters there said: now that Nollamara is in in a marginal Lib seat for the first time in a while, they might behave differently. Maybe that happened? I might have a look later if I remember.
Forrestfield: I have two F words for the place, and the second one is FIFO. If you doubt this is a real thing, have a flick through the rental section in the West real estate liftout. They get specifically mentioned in ads. (Same deal down in Rockingham too, last time I flicked through it to see just how broken the housing market is in WA.)