Still a fair bit up in the air, with Antony Green’s switching off of booth-matching on the ABC computer likely to cause a bit of confusion. I believe this has produced changes to the predictions provided for Belmont and Collie-Preston (both now “Labor ahead”), and also for Eyre (from Liberal retain to Nationals ahead), which you can learn more about below. Assuming I’m still capable of counting okay at this hour, I think the most likely result is Liberal 34, Labor 19 and Nationals 6.
Liberal gains from Labor: Balcatta, Forrestfield, Joondalup, Morley (notional), Perth and probably but not definitely Belmont, Kimberley and Collie-Preston.
Nationals gains from Labor: Pilbara.
Liberal gains from independent: Churchlands, Alfred Cove.
Liberal gains from Nationals: Warren-Blackwood.
Nationals gains from independent: Kalgoorlie.
Labor gains from independent: Fremantle.
So the Nationals might not have done as well as you think, probably having a net gain of one seat in the lower house and a net loss of one in the upper. And despite some speculation of a Greens wipeout during the count, they appear more likely than not to retain seats in South Metropolitan and Mining & Pastoral – though you should treat anything I say about upper house counts at this hour with caution.
First up, the following table breaks down the swings against Labor for various parts of the metropolitan area, at both this election and the last. The regions are much the same as when I conducted a similar exercise in 2008, with the following changes: Perth, Balcatta, Mount Lawley, Morley, Maylands, Midland, Girrawheen and Nollamara have been hived off Eastern Suburbs to form Inner North; Swan Hills and West Swan are out on their own in Swan Valley; and Inland Outskirts has been absorbed by Eastern Suburbs.
2013 2008 Outer North (5) -10.7% -3.3% South-Eastern (3) -9.7% -4.8% Inner North (7) -7.5% -7.7% Western/Riverside (9) -6.6% -6.1% Eastern Suburbs (10) -5.0% -4.0% Southern (6) -2.3% -4.5% Swan Valley (2) -1.7% -6.6%
Outer North (5 seats). The 2008 election bucked the usual pattern wherein the northern suburbs moved en bloc to the winning party when there was a change of government, with Mindarie (now Butler) and Joondalup holding out against the tide. This time the elastic snapped, with a trio of Liberal sophomores (Andrea Mitchell in Kingsley, Albert Jacob in Ocean Reef and Paul Miles in Wanneroo) enjoying double-digit swings. There were smaller swings in the two Labor-held seats, but the 7.7% swing was more than enough to take out Tony O’Gorman’s 3.3% margin in Joondalup, while John Quigley’s margin in Butler was sliced from 10.4% to 2.1%.
South-Eastern (3 seats). Wherein three Liberal sophomores, Frank Abetz in Southern River, Mike Nahan in Riverton and Joe Francis in Jandakot, picked up swings of 15.5%, 7.4% and 6.1%.
Inner North (7 seats). The heavy swing against Labor in this area cost them Perth (7.7% margin, 10.3% swing), Morley (notional 0.8% margin, 5.3% swing) and Balcatta (2.2%, 9.6%). Contrary to expectations it might be a show for Labor, the Liberla margin in Mount Lawley blew out by 9.9%. Labor margins were substantially reduced in Maylands and Mirrabooka (5.9% and 7.6%), but Margaret Quirk did better in Girrawheen (3.9%), as she needed to coming off a margin of 6.7%.
Western/Riverside (9 seats). The Liberals recovered the formerly independent seats of Churchlands and Alfred Cove, Janet Woollard doing hardly better than Adele Carles in the latter. Swings were mild in Cottesloe and Nedlands, stronger further afield in Bateman and Scarborough.
Eastern Suburbs (10 seats). Labor did unusually well in Gosnells, where Chris Tallentire defended his margin of 4.8% against a swing of just 1.0%, but Michelle Roberts received a fright off a 7.9% swing in Midland. Belmont was being discussed as done and dusted, but the switching off of booth-matching shows a raw Labor lead of 0.6%. The key to this is that no pre-polls have been added, which were nearly 6% better for Liberal than the overall result in 2008.
Southern Suburbs (6 seats). One of Labor’s relative bright spots was a very limited swing in the southern coastal corridor. Last I looked Roger Cook appeared in trouble again from Kwinana mayor and independent candidate Carol Adams, but he looks to have come home strongly and holds a raw lead of 802 votes.
Swan Valley (2 seats). The Ellenbrook effect well in evidence with swings of 1.7% in both Swan Hills and West Swan, which respectively stayed Liberal and Labor.
Elsewhere, from top down:
Kimberley. A four-way humdinger with the Liberal candidate on 26.5%, the Greens with a James Price Point-engorged 25.9%, Labor on 21.6% and the Nationals on a surprisingly modest 20.8%. With Labor and the Greens directing preferences to Liberal ahead of Nationals, it seems to me most likely that the Liberals will win the seat. Amid an otherwise grim night, the Greens could end up within impressive proximity of victory at the final count.
Pilbara. Brendon Grylls did it easily, driving the Nationals vote up 17.5% to 40.2%, Labor down 14.4% to 29.0%, and the Liberals in third on 22.8%, up 3.5%.
North West Central. No preference count is available, but with Labor finishing third, it comes down to 44.9% for Vince Catania and 26.5% for the Liberal. Labor and the Greens have both preferenced the Liberal, but presumably there should be enough leakage to get Catania up.
Kalgoorlie. Further emphasising the point that this electorate’s Labor-voting days are in the past, Labor finished a distant third with 17.9% to 38.0% for both the Nationals and the Liberals. Nationals candidate Wendy Duncan holds a decisive 1.8% lead over the Liberal after preferences.
Mandurah and Dawesville. These followed the southern metropolitan pattern, in swinging only 1.3% and 1.7%.
Collie-Preston. Mick Murray holds a raw 62-vote lead, so the seat has flipped to Labor ahead on the ABC computer. Labor leads that narrow tend not to survive late counting; the big outstanding bloc of votes in absents, which should get the Liberals over the line if they follow the 2008 pattern, but the change in boundaries means they might not. So Liberals the favourite, but still in doubt.
Warren-Blackwood. A likely Nationals loss, with the sitting member Terry Redman down to 34.3% on the primary vote. There’s no preference count here, so the ABC’s 2.5% margin for the Liberals is based on Antony’s educated guess. Given the Liberals appear the more likely winner in Kimberley, the most likely outcome for the Nationals is in fact a modest net gain of one seat.
Albany. Yet another tremendous performance by Peter Watson, whose raw 776 vote should be more than enough to see off anything late counting can throw at him.
Eyre. Another turn-up from the switching off of booth matching on the indispensible ABC computer is that the Nationals are in fact 74 votes ahead in Eyre, held for the Liberals by Graham Jacobs. This is a very strong performance for them against a sitting member and in the face of Labor preferences to the Liberals.
Now for a very superficial reading of the upper house.
East Metropolitan: Looking like three and three, Labor leading the Greens 11.0% to 8.0% at the key second last exclusion.
North Metropolitan: The thumping swing to the Liberals has delivered them a fourth seat, squeezing out the Greens.
South Metropolitan: Of the Greens’ four seats, the ABC projection has them retaining two, one being Lynn MacLaren’s seat. Can’t see any alternative outcome to three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens.
South West: The ABC computer has Family First nabbing a seat from the Nationals off just 1.44% of the vote. However, they are delicately placed at Count 9 of the ABC projection, leading the fourth Liberal 5.96% to 5.12%. Should they fall behind, the Nationals will win the seat instead. So it’s three Liberal, two Labor and one Nationals or Family First.
Agricultural: A disappointing show by Max Trenorden appears to have resulted in a seat going to Shooters & Fishers, who remarkably seem to have scored preferences from Labor and the Greens as well as the more usual suspects. The result thus becomes two for the Nationals (down one), two for the Liberals (steady), one for Labor (steady) and one Shooters & Fishers.
Mining & Pastoral: Robin Chapple of the Greens will hold on to his seat if he can stay ahead of the second Labor candidate, whom he leads 9.9% to 6.7% at the relevant exclusion on the ABC projection. So the most likely result is two Liberal (steady), two Nationals (up one), one Labor (down one) and one Greens (steady).
Finally, it was another good night for Newspoll, although they appeared to have the Coalition a bit too high on two-party preferred. On the primary vote, the current numbers are 47.2% Liberal, 6.0% Nationals, 33.6% Labor and 7.9% Greens, while Newspoll had it at 48%, 6%, 32% and 8%.
Ugly night for Labor.
These are basically what I figured for the Upper House too, based on my first back-of-the-envelope calculations using vote totals from the WAEC and my own reading of the preference flows – except I gave the Nats the last SW seat, not Family First. As you’ve pointed, it could go either way.
Albany and Perth are the only real surprises for me this time – though Kimberley deserves a mention merely for the bizzare way in which the primary vote split fairly neatly amongst the four leading candidates.
On another note, I was disappointed in how poorly Bernie Masters polled in Vasse.
I also have a gut feeling that at least some Labor voters switched to him in order to try and give him a chance of knocking of Buswell.
William, you owe me two beers. One for being wrong about Peter Watson and leading me me to eventually agree with you, and one because WTF happened to my own local MP? John Hyde was a good bloke who has been replaced by a plastic-faced Channel 31 “celebrity” who will happily lick her own dribble from Barnett’s shoes, and then polish them. What the fsck happened there?
AARRGGHH.
Girraween, Gosnells, West Swan and Collie Preston not such bad results for the ALP
Albany an absolute corker of a result for the ALP
The rest….not so good
The only consolation for Labor voters is that the Greens have done even worse. Nowheresville in Fremantle, only two seats in the Council. I say this not out of animus for Greens in general, for some of whom I have a good deal of time, but for the WA Greens specifically. They combine self-righteous ultra-leftism with stinking opportunism in colluding with the Nationals to rig the Council against Labor. Now their hypocrisy has found its just reward.
[Albany. Yet another tremendous performance by Peter Watson, whose raw 776 vote should be more than enough to see off anything late counting can throw at him.]
I hope so. The Liberal candidate really is a dud.
My, you’re feeling generous today. Bit of an understatement.
Perth is an absolute shocker for Labor. Roberts’ scare in Midland was also terribly bad.
That said, the biggest swing in a Labor/Liberal race came in Ocean Reef, a seat where the 17% swing really was wasted… which plays into what I was pointing out earlier in the campaign about “wasted” swings.
Not that it mattered overall in this instance, but it’s still something to think about.
What was the 2PP?
So, let’s be quite clear about this: State Election on State issues. Gillard hasn’t even visited the State for 120 days so it isn’t her.
Going to the stunning Nationals victory in the Pilbara – perhaps the ALP should have found someone else than a recycled Greens candidate.
@6 Confessions – impressive effort by the Candidate in Albany who ensured none of his campaign material identified himas ALP – a very wise move.
As the Lib – his Dome Cafe is the best I have visited. Clearly a dud.
What would Alana McTiernan know?
Obviously a misogynyst..
@8 Dio
Us – LOTS
Them – not much
[impressive effort by the Candidate in Albany who ensured none of his campaign material identified himas ALP]
All of Watson’s campaign material clearly identified him as an ALP candidate. I don’t know what campaign material you were seeing, but his corflutes, pamphlets, posters and the like were clearly Labor.
[ The only consolation for Labor voters is that the Greens have done even worse. ]
Why don’t people like you just join the DLP or CDP and be done with it?
I heard 57-43 or thereabouts.
@13 in really really really small font.
[@13 in really really really small font.]
Wrong.
Peter Watson is a great local member – obviously clever, personable, hard-working, articulate and determined. I wish there were dozens like him.
[Gecko
Posted Saturday, March 9, 2013 at 1:59 pm | PERMALINK
Darren Brown (whoever that is) has a contrary view to that of Newspoll here.]
Had to go back and check this prediction, just for a laugh :
This is what this Brown chap said pre-WA election:
[I’m predicting the new Parliament to look like this:
Liberal: 26 (+2)
Nationals: 2 (-3)
Independents: 1 (-3)
Labor: 30 (+4)
Which clearly means I’m predicting a Labor Government with a one-seat majority.
It’s been fun writing for you WAToday readers – now come and get me Twitter Trolls!]
WOW! We have the leading contender for the role of Australia’s Dick Morris!
Read more: http://www.watoday.com.au/opinion/political-news/think-this-election-will-be-a-liberal-landslide-think-again-20130309-2fs3q.html#ixzz2N5fmiXF8
Clearly the Elizabeth Quay development in the Seat of Perth was huge negative for the . . .
Mod Lib
I believe Comical Ali set the standard by which Dick Morris, Karl Rove etc are judged by. It’s pleasing to see Australia has someone of that calibre.
That’s assuming Brown was being honest in predicting a Labor victory and not being disingenious for the purpose of appearing prophetic on the off-chance he got it right and at the very least amusingly noticable in the almost certain chance he got it wrong.
The general implications of Poe’s Law prevent us from telling one way or the other.
From the local paper on Facebook:
[According to ABC’s WA Votes website this morning, with more than 80 per cent of the vote counted, it appears the ALP will retain Albany with a 1.3% swing to Peter Watson.]
With the libs winning so many seats, what will happen to Royalties for Regions? Wasn’t this the demand from the Nats to provide the balance of power in 2008?
I’m surprised ALP folk can find anything to celebrate out of yesterday’s poll. Whatever the final outcome, the Libs shouldn’t ever be close in such seats as Belmont or Morley or Forrestfield. It’s simply not Liberal territory, and conservatives have held seats like Pilbara and Kimberley since Sir Charles Court’s days as Premier.
All in all, a disaster for Labor, probably two terms away from government now, despite Stephen Smith’s protestations. To @9 Compact Crank, I would disagree. Gillard didn’t come her because her party told her not to. Any Labor leader not even welcome in western Sydney would be eaten alive in WA.
Sorry… “conservatives have held seats like Pilbara and Kimberley since Sir Charles Court’s days as Premier” should of course read “have not held seats like Pilbara and Kimberley” since when Brian Sodeman and Allan Ridge were the respective Liberal members.
As unsurprising as it is, sad that Ian Radisich couldn’t unseat Frank Alban.
Word from the Emperor is that the Nats and Royalties for Regions both stay. He still needs to appease them for support in the Legislative Council at any rate, with the Libs certainly falling 2 short of controlling the Council outright.
Mod Lib 😀
http://www.watoday.com.au/opinion/political-news/i-called-labor-to-win–and-i-was-wrong-20130310-2ftnj.html
[The only consolation for Labor voters is that the Greens have done even worse.
Why don’t people like you just join the DLP or CDP and be done with it?]
Firstly, because I’m a gay atheist social democrat, and I doubt they’d have me. Secondly, to stop people like you taking over the ALP and rendering it permanently (as opposed to merely temporarily) unelectable. Why don’t you just join the Greens and be done with it?
At least he’s being a good sport about it!
Ah, but for an actual social democratic party to vote for in the elections.
That’ll be the day.
A Labor Party is a pretty good substitute, and better in some ways, because it’s tied through the unions to the actual working class.
Thanks Arrnea
I asked because there will be a significant increase in operating expenditure bringing Fiona Stanley on line whilst running RPH. I also suspect there will also be additional costs associated with the major capital program underway.
The R4R seems the obvious place to get a few extra shekels to balance the increase in expenditure.
A working class which is growing less and less unionised over time and thus more and more disenchanted with and disconnected from the union movement.
Unfortunately, I think it’s time the center-left has to start looking beyond the union movement as the connection with the people. Don’t be the party of the group claiming to represent the working class. Be the party that represents the working class.
My feeling is that the Nationals will baulk at any attempt to redirect regional funds under the R4R program to running urban hospitals and thus Barnett will have to make cuts elsewhere, or else borrow the funds to keep these things running.
Unfortunately.
Was the wa liberals campaigning for the federal liberals
or were they ashamed of abbott and bishop
I’m not sure about the Ellenbrook effect for West Swan. The Ballajura booths look good as well with
Swings towards the ALP. This was even after the Libs matched Labors promise for a Police Station in the Suburb.
If the wa liberals were not campaigning as a part of a promotion for abbott
why not
why is the media lying about federal indications for
Because it’s what they’re paid to do.
Psephos @5
“WA Greens combine self-righteous ultra-leftism with stinking opportunism in colluding with the Nationals to rig the Council against Labor.”
I don’t think the WA Greens’ decision a few terms ago on Upper House electorates was opportunism – I think it was just stupid, leaving the Upper House to be permanently controlled by conservatives, entrenching a major rural/regional malapportionment.
As for this Upper House outcome, there is too much still to be counted to get too definitive – I think there is still a chance for the Greens in East Metro. But there’s also a possibility that later counting could reduce Greens’ chances in Mining & Pastoral.
The very strong Greens vote in Kimberley is obviously driven by local factors, but it is still an interesting one.
There seemed to be some counter-intuitive preference decisions from all parties in various Upper & Lower House seats. It’s ironic that a WA Liberal Party in a much stronger position than the Victorian Libs didn’t follow the Vic Libs in putting Greens after ALP across the board.
Arrnea Stormbringer
Posted Sunday, March 10, 2013 at 1:22 pm | Permalink
Meguire Bob
why is the media lying
Because it’s what they’re paid to do.
———————————————
Yeah if the media was honest
they would have known abbott would have damage the state wa liberals, reason why he was kept out of it
and only smear and fear agaisnt gillard
Aside from Kimberley, it was a relatively poor result for the WA GRNs. No point trying to spin it otherwise.
Nonetheless, as Ive said here a few times, you can expect 2-3% down under Milne, compared to Brown – but the vote wont collapse. 8-9% are rusted on. As we see here. I believe that will hold true nationally.
The more I look at the detail of the Group Voting tickets for the Upper House, the more curious some of the preference decisions seem – I expect there would be further curious preference numbering on some Lower House how to votes too.
The 6×6 system is bad and should not have been brought in. The ALP had promised not to change Mining and Pastoral but I see no reason why they could not have applied 1 vote, 1 value to the other LC seats.
5
Remember Senator Scott Ludlam is a WA Green.
The Greens preferenced the Hunters and Fishers over the Nationals? Unbelievable.
well done Peter Watson, a victory for a good guy. Never mind keeping Julia Gillard out of WA, maybe the libs should keep colin Barnett (and the government jet) out of Albany. And early in the count I think I heard Julie Bishop say she had been there too as she gave a plug for the Lib candidate’s business. Maybe that was a good thing he will need to sell a few coffees to pay for his campaign
Jon thinks
Driven through Belmont lately? I was out that way on Friday for the first time in a while, and I dont think the people living in the riverside apartments are labor voters.likewise a lot of the Housing Commission areas have been done over in the last decade and the old working class labor voters are just that — old and in diminishing numbers in that part of the world
rossmcg:
JBishop was in Albany the week before last touring around with Cosh.