Galaxy: 55-45 to Coalition

A new Galaxy poll says pretty much what every federal poll recently has been saying.

The News Limited tabloids bring a Galaxy poll, conducted between Tuesday to Thursday from 1000 respondents, which has the Coalition’s leading 55-45 from primary votes of 32% for Labor, 48% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens. On the question of the Labor leadership, 32% believed the party should stick with Julia Gillard, 26% believed she should be replaced with Kevin Rudd, and 33% opted for “a fresh face such as Bill Shorten or Greg Combet”. Worryingly for the goverment, 59% nominated that the Coalition “would be ready” to govern against 36% who thought otherwise.

UPDATE (11/3): Essential Research provides further evidence that Labor’s slump has bottomed out and perhaps even reversed slightly. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 34% with both the Coalition and the Greens down a point, to 48% and 9%, with the Coalition two-party lead back to 55-45 after two weeks at 56-44. Monthly personal ratings find Julia Gillard essentially unchanged after copping a hit last month, her approval steady at 36% and disapproval up one to 56%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 37% and down two to 51%. Abbott has pulled level on preferred prime minister, which is at 39-39, after trailing 39-37 last time.

Essential has also performed one of its occasional experiments where it divides its sample in two and asks each differently worded questions, in this case relating to immigration. The money finding here is that 38% deem boat arrivals most important from a list of issues against 20% who nominate 457 visa, but this changes to 33% and 31% if the numbers involved (15,000 boat arrivals and 150,000 457 visas) are provided. Further questions find 22% broadly in favour of privatisation and 58% broadly against, with respondents also given a list of services and asked which should be run by the government and which privately. The evenly divided “Telecommunications (including broadband services)” was the only one for which being run by the government wasn’t heavily favoured.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,472 comments on “Galaxy: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. @lefty e /2149

    All this talk of Rudd and Gillard is just making the Coalition sit back and relax and the fallout from there.

    The old star wars quote comes to mind “It’s a Trap”.

  2. [zoidlord
    Posted Monday, March 11, 2013 at 7:51 pm | Permalink

    @frednk/2136

    Ok so if Labor gets chucked out of power (hint they are Minority goverment), Coalition comes in, who do they represent ? Big Guys at top.]

    It is a serious problem, who represents the educated middle class, the growing demographic? I would have thought the opportunity in politics.

    Labors of chasing red necks in rooty hill. Abbotts chasing rednecks everywhere. The educated middle class is either voting fopr Abbott because the can’t stand Gillard or voting for Gillard because they can’t stand Abbott.

  3. [Who told you this? The media? Someone who was out to get him? Maybe it was the journalists you all despise but agree with when they criticise Rudd to validate your version of events.]

    mytbw It’s reported in Hansard that it was Kev. Abbott made a direct statement in the House. Nobody asked for a retraction nor was there a ‘Speaker I have been grievously misrepresented’ from Kev.

  4. Lots more lunacy here on PB tonight.

    For those discussing (why?) fibre vs copper vs radio, the important thing is not speed (the differences in the speed of light are so small as to be immaterial) – it is bandwidth – i.e. the total information carrying capacity.

    A quick google will get you numbers like these (over a 50km link):

    4G technologies (e.g. WiMax) : 100 Megabit/s
    Microwave (Radio) : 1 Gigabit/s
    Copper : 10 Gigabit/s
    Fibre : 1 Petabit/s

    For those who don’t understand giga- vs peta-, this means that Fibre is capable of carrying 1,000,000 times more information than Microwave technologies (which have the largest capacity of the radio spectrum), and 10,000,000 times more capacity than current 4G technoologies.

    Also, we have nearly reached the theoretical carrying capacity of both Copper and Radio. No-one has yet even come close to the theoretical limit for Fibre.

    Also, power consumption of Fibre is trivial compared to both copper and radio, since most of the energy is wasted in the latter two cases (nearly ALL of it in the case of radio!).

    Also, transmission via Fibre is virtually noise-free, whereas the others are prone to environmental noise which (in some cases) reduces the effective bandwidth to pretty close to zero.

    There are other advantages as well (no need to share or manage spectrum, maintenance costs almost nil).

    In summary: No comparison at all.

  5. Hope this isn’t too O/T and too much of an effortpost, but it’s something that gets on my nerves.

    The speed of light argument is irrelevant anyway. When we say data travels at the speed of light in fibre, we’re talking about the latency.. the lag. Think of it like a hosepipe – when you turn the tap on it takes a little while for the water to start coming out of the other end.

    Over short hops – like the few kilometers from you to the fibre access node, that’s measured in microseconds, and is unimportant for most people’s applications (and in fact, is slightly quicker in copper).

    What we’re more interested is the bandwidth – the inside diameter of the hosepipe. That controls how much data (or water) per second we can deliver to the other end – and therefore what your actual download speed is.

    The amount of bandwidth you have available on a medium (whether copper or fibre) depends on the frequency response of the medium – that is, what range of frequencies can be usefully transferred over it. Copper has a significantly worse frequency response – that is, as the length of the line gets longer, its ability to reliably carry high frequency information gets worse (the attenuation gets higher).

    To put some numbers on this, DSL2+ over copper uses frequencies up to a bit over 2MHz, which if copper had great frequency response, should deliver about 25Mbits/sec on a short run. As you know, over a couple of k’s it can’t deliver anything like that.
    VDSL increases the frequency range to 30MHz – but if your copper couldn’t send data at 2MHz, just having the gear able to use extra frequencies isn’t going to help your speed over the length of the run.

    Fibre on the other hand, at least single-mode fibre like is being run for the NBN, has a practical bandwidth limitation in the terahertz range, and its losses as it becomes longer is Yes, you can do encoding tweaks to squeeze more data down the limited copper pipe, but when the actual physical capacities are so different, it’s akin to ricing your vespa and expecting to outperform a ferrari. Not happening.

  6. Psephos@2123

    Sometimes you hit the nail right on the head! Brilliant.

    The only thing you got wrong was “Labor loses 60 seats and “Other” is declared the Opposition Party in the HoR. And…………..

    Labor’s one Senator decides to become and independent.

    It is decided that in Queensland, under Mr Rudd’s leadership where the party was founded, that the ALP should be officially disbanded for lack of support from the community.”

    Australia becomes a Tory Paradise.

  7. Player One
    Player One
    [4G technologies (e.g. WiMax) : 100 Megabit/s
    Microwave (Radio) : 1 Gigabit/s
    Copper : 10 Gigabit/s
    Fibre : 1 Petabit/s]
    In Coalition NBN policy lalaland there is an even faster technology measured in petacredlinbit/s .

  8. alias:

    The only federal Labor issues that arose during the WA campaign were:

    1. the MRRT and the perception that Canberra is putting an envy tax on WA – a change of leadership wouldn’t negate this as the MRRT is legislated
    2. McGowan distancing WA Labor from carbon pricing (stupidly as it’s turned out)
    3. WA Labor insisting federal Labor stay away during the campaign (again, stupidly as Barnett has revealled)

    That’s it.

    As I said yesterday, I suspect Smith (and MacTiernan) were allowing their disappointment to cloud their better thoughts. In the case of MacTiernan I think it’s difficult for her to attack the WA Labor campaign, but much easier to go after the feds. So an easy decision on her part.

  9. Lets cue a resurrection of Rudd slagging in hyper-drive by interested parties…since it was the only rationale they based the backstabbing of a first term PM after more than a decade in opposition.

    There is a direct relationship between the degree of slagging of Rudd and the degree of factional self interest in knifing him.

    This is why they hate him so.

    And so those who leaked against Rudd, including Gillard/Swan for a year to try and get his polls down so they could knife him, that isn’t relevant is it.

    Labor is factionally corrupt and the little roaches need to be squished…either by a Rudd reinstalled…or a thrashing at election. Don’t care which really….as the important thing is fixing up Labor, not the effing election….(apart from the Senate).

  10. Svensky

    [
    Hope this isn’t too O/T and too much of an effortpost, but it’s something that gets on my nerves.]
    Not over the top and a welcome post.

  11. [All this talk of Rudd and Gillard is just making the Coalition sit back and relax and the fallout from there]

    Have to remind some that if Gillard wasn’t such an abject failure at being leader the leadership issue wouldn’t be an issue.

    If Rudd had retired before we would now be going on about Shorten/Combet challenging Gillard and the same people here slagging them instead of Rudd.

    The problem is simply Gillard, fix her up and there would be no issue.

  12. [And Albo’s support of Rudd was one of the most half hearted performances I’ve ever seen.]

    Actually, that was one of the most genuine and ‘unwooden’ moments on the ALP side of politics for many a year.

    Even the cynical MSM seemed (briefly) moved by it, and treated it with uncommon respect.

  13. poroti@2157

    Player One
    Player One

    4G technologies (e.g. WiMax) : 100 Megabit/s
    Microwave (Radio) : 1 Gigabit/s
    Copper : 10 Gigabit/s
    Fibre : 1 Petabit/s


    In Coalition NBN policy lalaland there is an even faster technology measured in petacredlinbit/s .

    😀

  14. poroti @2157 ….and we all need 1 Petabit/s capability at home.

    And I like to drive my twin turbocharged V8 Range Rover with nitrous oxide injection down to the corner to post a letter – no over investment there!

  15. I am with you Confessions

    The ‘stay away Julia’ thing was stupid as McGowan was not going to win, regardless.

    The CT thing was a sad cop out by McGowan. It has long since passed as being an issue.

    He could have said wtte that so many changes have been made that the CT has had and will have little or no impact in WA. Not even Barnett invoked the CT to hit Labor with.

    As far as the MRRT over 60% of the electorate think this is a good idea and McGowan could have talk about tinkering with Royalties to get around this one.

    I wish the PM had come.

  16. [If Rudd had retired before we would now be going on about Shorten/Combet challenging Gillard and the same people here slagging them instead of Rudd.]

    If Rudd had retired, or at least had been a team player, the govt wouldn’t have everything it says reported within a leadershit framework as a result of his whiteanting.

  17. [confessions
    Posted Monday, March 11, 2013 at 7:12 pm | Permalink
    JV:

    Even if I was in the habit of simpering, it certainly wouldn’t be at Kevin Rudd.]

    fess

    You do seem to go a little weak at the knees whenever Andrew Probyn appears. If that’s not simpering it’s the next best thing 😆

  18. TP = took someone to issue earlier today for a comment regarding “abject failure” of JG.

    Where is your proof?

    Come 5, 50 or 100 years from now, JG will be noted as Australia’s first female PM.

    History alone will show her to have been a leader and you and I will be unknown dust.

    You are a total negative misery guts most of the time.

  19. TP

    [And so those who leaked against Rudd, including Gillard/Swan for a year to try and get his polls down so they could knife him, that isn’t relevant is it.]

    There is no evidence to suggest that Gillard leaked against Rudd; she gave journalists permission to reveal if she had.

    Not only has no journalist ever come forward to accuse her of it, there hasn’t even been snide remarks to that effect (whereas there’ve been plenty of snide remarks and innuendo about other matters to do with JG).

    The consensus of opinion has always been – even amongst the press gallery – that she was totally loyal to him until the day she was asked to take over.

  20. lefty e

    yes, Albo’s speech was very heartfelt and moving – but as a demonstration of faith in Rudd’s leadership, it was a limp lettuce.

  21. So, all this Rudd v Gillard stuff is rivetting.

    While that is all happening is anyone actually going to do anything about fixing the underlying problem of the ALP itself?

    How do you fix the fact that the Unions represent less than 20% of employees and a significantly smaller fraction of private sector employees yet wants to win public support?

    How do you get past the fact that the Unions pay the bills and therefore expect a return on investment – decision making on preselection and policy?

  22. Compact Crank

    [
    poroti @2157 ….and we all need 1 Petabit/s capability at home.]
    Who knows ? I remember not so long aago when 256 kb/s was “broadband” .Full on 3D holograms will probably need that sort of speed.

  23. Tricot..

    Come 5, 50 or 100 years from now, JG will indeed be noted as Australia’s first female PM. It will also be noticed, in a 3 paragraph summary that she presided over a messy minority government and suffered the worst defeat in a generation, heralding the longest and most radical period of conservative government since Federation.

    Is that what you want?

  24. zoomster

    [And Albo’s support of Rudd was one of the most half hearted performances I’ve ever seen.]

    How on earth do you know what he feels? For goodness sake you have to justify your own position by decrying the validity of another.

    Do you know Albo if not don’t speak for him.

  25. [Not even Barnett invoked the CT to hit Labor with.]

    All McGowan had to say was that was federal legislation, and as WA Premier he would work with the federal govt to ensure that WAers received their fair share of compensation etc etc.

    I never saw one Labor advert attacking the Barnett govt over its utilities rises. Not one. If McGowan had any backbone he could’ve owned the carbon price by going after Barnett on the scandalous electricity price rises that have occurred under this leadership.

    Agree re the PM visiting. Barnett was so right on that front.

  26. The NBN does three things and deos them well.

    1) Provides bandwidth to the home as the information revolution takes hold.

    2)Fixes up the mess the Liberals left behind when they privatised telstra. Something worth doing, but should have been done properly.
    .
    3)Gets rid of the aging copper netwrok.

    There is a reason why France is following us and GB wish they had doen what we are doing. It it is the right thing to do.

    As to the speed of light thing, what absolute codswollop.

    Now if you start talking about the freguency than you are onto something. Light has a much shorter wavelength, therefor more information can be tranported by what ever modulation method you decide to use.

  27. [You do seem to go a little weak at the knees whenever Andrew Probyn appears.]

    Darn:

    It’s true. I don’t just simper for anyone, but keep my best for those most deserving of my affections. 😀

  28. Tabloid Crank@2164

    poroti @2157 ….and we all need 1 Petabit/s capability at home.

    And I like to drive my twin turbocharged V8 Range Rover with nitrous oxide injection down to the corner to post a letter – no over investment there!

    Lame.

    10 years ago you probably thought a 56 kbit/s modem was pretty cool. Then you ran out of bandwidth.

    5 years ago you probably thought a 10Mbit/s cable modem was pretty cool. Then you ran out of bandwidth.

    Today you probably think your 100Mbit/s 4G connection is pretty cool. Tomoorrow you will run out of bandwidth.

    5 years from now you will run out of the theoretical capacity of radio.

    10 years from now you will run out of the theoretical capacity of copper.

    15 years from now your children will curse your short-sightedness and build a Fibre network.

    If they can afford one in their ruined economy.

  29. poroti @2172 And you were perfectly happy to upgrade your modem and computer out of your own pocket as technology and demand changed – paying private sector companies to provide the necessary hardware and software – you didnt rely on the public sector or balance sheet.

  30. [ alias
    Posted Monday, March 11, 2013 at 8:22 pm | Permalink
    ..
    worst defeat in a generation, heralding the longest and most radical period of conservative government since Federation.

    Is that what you want?
    ]
    Seems your pretty confident your crystal ball works can I give it a spin?

  31. MTBW

    I have made no claims to know what Albo feels – I am talking about what he said in his speech, which is on the record.

    As a statement of support for Rudd, it isn’t a ringing endorsement.

  32. [ Compact Crank
    Posted Monday, March 11, 2013 at 8:26 pm | Permalink
    ….
    poroti @2172 And you were perfectly happy to upgrade your . – you didnt rely on the public sector or balance sheet.]

    Last time I looked most of telstra’s infustructure was installed when it was a public utility.

  33. Patrick Bateman #1463, #1534, #1581, #1592 (and probably others).

    Thanks, all I can add is that those are many of the reasons I cannot – in all conscience – vote ALP. Yes, yes, I know several here will lecture me about how my vote will allegedly help install an unconscionably right-wing government, but all that wailing, accusatory polemic fails to acknowledge that the principal reason the ALP is losing support is its kow-towing to the less immoderate elements of the LNP/ CLP/ DLP vote. I also agree with your assertion that the 12% or so vote for the Greens in 2010 was probably at least partly due to disgruntled moderate lefties dserting ALP ranks in an attempt to wake the ALP up (and thus the typical Greens support base is ~10%). Regrettably, it seems to have failed and the ALP seems to have committed itself to becoming “the LNP you like when you don’t want the LNP”.

    OTOH a year or two back someone I know who is much more active in politics than I am told me that I should contemplate the view that the best thing at the next federal election would be for the LNP to win handsomely. In their words “give the reactionary *&)kwits and neoliberal market stooges hiding under the cover of Menzies’ shadows full rein. After 3 or 4 years of being shafted up the ar$e without Vaseline maybe then enough of those with sore ar$eholes will have had enough, and maybe by then the Labor party will have remembered why it was invented in the first place”

  34. [And I like to drive my twin turbocharged V8 Range Rover with nitrous oxide injection down to the corner to post a letter – no over investment there!]

    “Post”? “A letter”? What do these words mean? Did I read something about this in a Jane Austen novel?

  35. alias

    Who reads the detail?

    At any quiz night the question would be ‘Who was Australia’s first female PM?”

    Nothing else would come into it.

    Let’s try this one. “Who, in modern time was the UK’s greatest PM?”

    Next question:

    “Which English political leader’s poor strategy led to the death of thousands of allied troops in a failed attempt to open the Dardenelles by a landings in Turkey?”

    Next Question:

    “Which English politician after successfully leading his nation to victory over the Germans was thrown out of office at the fist election after the war?”

    Guess which one most of the punters will remember?

    See what I mean? The stamp of the woman, just as in Churchill’s case, will be what is remembered.

    Question for a Labor supporter:

    Who was the worst PM in the last 30 years.

    Answer: Too hard as most were tossers.

  36. zoomster

    [As a statement of support for Rudd, it isn’t a ringing endorsement.]

    As far as you are concerned! Get over yourself and don’t presume you can speak for others.

  37. Jackol@2120

    BB –

    Wi-fi has a TOP speed of the speed of light, with many, many speed humps and interferences along the way.


    Seriously this is just nonsense.

    Wireless uses RF broadcast technology – speed of light.

    Lasers with fibre – speed of light (though it’s in glass not air/vacuum)

    ADSL – electrical signals propagated in copper at something on the same order as the speed of light.

    Analog voice on POTS – electrical signals propagated in copper at something on the same order as the speed of light.

    Guy waving semaphore flags – visual signals transmitted as light at the speed of light in air.

    The speed of propagation is irrelevant.

    There are vast technical differences between all of these, but the speed of light has nothing to do with any of them being superior or inferior.

    Excellent explanation Tricot!

    Puts a good perspective on things.

    One other point is that fibre is a bounded media unlike wireless. Fibre gives a dedicated connection between the premises and the Exchange or whatever they call it.

    Wireless, being an unbounded media, is shared by all within a ‘cell’ in a 3G or 4G system.

    Just no comparison in potential speed and capacity.

  38. BH

    [mytbw It’s reported in Hansard that it was Kev. Abbott made a direct statement in the House. Nobody asked for a retraction nor was there a ‘Speaker I have been grievously misrepresented’ from Kev.]

    Then it must be true if it wasn’t retracted.

    Off for a while to watch Four Corners.

  39. zoomster

    Gillard – or rather the new right axis putting her up – was planning the knifing way out. It wasn’t about her, it was about the new factional control once Rudd had won them the 2007 election. She was the best option by 2009 due to her relative popularity as minister and DPM. ‘Quiet American’ Arbib has informed us the preparations for the coup via the US Embassy cables as a protected source, revealed by Wikileaks.

  40. [Tricot
    Posted Monday, March 11, 2013 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

    ..

    Question for a Labor supporter:

    Who was the worst PM in the last 30 years.]

    As Labor was reposibe for the complete restucturing of our economy and as a result the standard of living we are enjoying today, it’s a pretty stupid answer.

    Answer: Too hard as most were tossers.

  41. Oh crap another Green doing piddley Pow and socking the ALP right between the eyes.

    The Labor party is the party of the working class. Its problem is people feel they are in a class they are not.

    Just because you run a small business does not mean you are a business tycoon, you are a plumber etc you are working class.

  42. Confessions @2176 – “I never saw one Labor advert attacking the Barnett govt over its utilities rises. ”

    Because the rises had to happen – the ALP froze energy prices for 11 Years – if the ALP had not frozen prices for 11 years there would not have been so much pent up pain.

    ALP never had an answer for how to do the required price rises without pain – impossible.

  43. Fer f**k’s sake Jackol,

    [Wireless uses RF broadcast technology – speed of light.]

    The AVERAGE speed of wi-fi is a lot less than 186,000 kps.

    Just as the AVERAGE speed of the “300kph” Ferrari is severely limited by driving conditions.

    In a traffic jam on the Gore Hill freeway it’s 5kph.

    Stop being abso-bloody-lutely stupid.

  44. Dedalus 2148

    “you expect parties to be too pure. It doesn’t work like that.”

    I made it clear at 2107:
    “No political party is perfect”

    Besides, I’m too long in the tooth to even entertain the notion that it could be otherwise.

    If it comes to it and people I know cannot bring themselves to vote Green, then I would naturally suggest they vote Labor (in the absence of independents who might be more closely aligned). But I would rather a Labor party that stood for something better than second best.

  45. Troy Bramston @TroyBramston

    I’ll be discussing the latest #Newspoll on @thetodayshow tomorrow morning just after 7.00 am. It will certainly cause a stir in Canberra!

    ——————————————

    That’s pretty ambiguous there!

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