Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research has the Greens up a point at the expense of Labor, while a JWS Research automated phone poll suggests the swing against Labor is biting where it can least afford it.

The latest Essential Research poll has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 35% and the Greens up one to 10% with the Coalition steady on 48%, and two-party preferred unchanged on 54-46. The poll also finds diminishing enthusiasm for an “election now” (down seven since last April to 35%) with 51% (up three) supporting a full term. Questions on the economy find 70% ready to allow it has performed better over the last few years than in other countries against 12% who aren’t, but 40% rate the Liberal Party better to handle “another global financial crisis” against 26% for Labor. However, optimism is substantially higher than since last August, with 29% expecting the economy to get better over the next 12 months (up seven) against 37% expecting it to worsen (down eight).

Perhaps surprisingly, the poll finds little change in convictions about climate change since the question was last gauged in August. Fifty-one per cent agreed human activity was causing climate change against 40% favouring “a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”, respectively up three and up one on August. Support for carbon pricing was likewise little changed at 37% against 50% opposed, up one and down two. The poll also finds 37% supporting lower pay rates for 18 to 20 year old workers against 52% opposed.

We also had published overnight an automated phone poll by JWS Research targeting 3350 respondents in the 54 seats which are held by either side on margins of 6% or less. This pointed to swings to the Coalition of 12.2% in the NSW seats, 4.1% in Victoria and 3.2% in Western Australia, with the Queensland seats swinging 2.8% to Labor. Swings against Labor were 4.8% in aggregate, 6.5% in Labor seats (10.0% in seats with margins below 3%), 3.3% in Coalition seats, 5.7% in metropolitan seats and 1.7% in country seats. As well as being at the high end for the Coalition generally, it also produced relatively good personal ratings for Tony Abbott, on minus 16% net approval against minus 14% for Julia Gillard and trailing only 33-32 as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,221 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. [You were Ok with the “big Blow” no damage?]

    Mari, just lots of shredded foliage.

    Seems like the background briefers are getting the royal order of the boot. No more election campaign leaks?

  2. [ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:36 pm | PERMALINK
    You were Ok with the “big Blow” no damage?

    Mari, just lots of shredded foliage.

    Seems like the background briefers are getting the royal order of the boot. No more election campaign leaks?]

    Good re the storm

    Who is left now of the leakers Kim Carr is that right???

  3. “@BrigadierSlog: .@CUhlmann I’ve read McClelland’s statement, no (zero, nada, zilch) mention of going over a cliff. #CaughtMakingUpBullshit #TheirABC”

  4. I would want Paul Howes or Morris Iemma in Barton. Both have too much baggage for this elelction.

    Don’t like Paul Howes, at one stage he seemed to saying something pig headed (by accident) once a fortnight.

  5. NSW is poison for the Govt’s re-election chances. Those few rotten apples up there will ensure Abbott and his tea party supporters get the keys to the Lodge.

  6. Trish Crossin and Robert McClelland should get together and start their own breakway Labor party.

    Their campaign slogan could be “Vote 1 to keep us in Parliament, we’re no good for anything else.”

  7. Bloody ABC!

    I was just on hold for a long time on 774 Melbourne wanting to tear strips off them for having Anne Henderson (wife of Gerard) on without disclosure of who she was and her connections, commenting on the Tim Mathieson flat joke as if she was some sort of an independent, unbiased commentator. She got in about 15 minutes of rubbishing the PM and her marital status as well as the joke.

    I was all fired up to let rip at them.

  8. guytaur

    if the government plays it smart, if abbott and co trys to link them with nsw, then Gillard and co should do the same

    in press conference remind people the nsw government is invovled

  9. [Labor looks better in qld than abbott in nsw]

    The reason for slipping the JWS ‘research’ into Stuchbury’s in-tray.

    Hey Newman you are losing us seats, you better not ignore the final Costello Audit Report which will be released real soon.

  10. Windsor camp would have notice , that Torbay reputation is questionable and the liberals/ coalition facing icac wont help torbay much

  11. Well there is the epitah for McLelland as a politician

    “@JoeHockey: Rob McClelland – a very decent guy treated poorly by Julia Gillard. I genuinely wish him and his wonderful family all the very best.”

  12. [Greens leader Christine Milne is urging the Government to establish a permanent disaster recovery fund…]

    It established a whole friggin’ Department Milne. 😛

    It was The Log’s last front bench gig.

  13. Meguire Bob@177


    Windsor camp would have notice , that Torbay reputation is questionable and the liberals/ coalition facing icac wont help torbay much

    I had never heard of Torbay prior to seeing him interviewed on TV and my reaction was that he was a rather peculiar little man.

  14. [Is Heffron anywhere near Barton ?]
    Not hugely. No overlap. Adjacent courtesy of the airport, but that is more a barrier than common “community” feature.

  15. [Well there is the epitah for McLelland as a politician

    “@JoeHockey: Rob McClelland – a very decent guy treated poorly by Julia Gillard. I genuinely wish him and his wonderful family all the very best.” ]

    And you still can’t spell his name right even when it’s written there for you in your own post! Something even Joe Hockey can manage can’t be all that hard.

  16. Kevin Bonham
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 2:55 pm

    [Just repeating from previous thread that the JWS was commissioned by a group with very strong Liberal Party links and should be treated with lots of caution on that basis and others.]

    Yes, I was a little suspicious of the poll as the last JWS poll in Victoria was at complete odds to every other poll, but I wasn’t sure if it was a consistent thing with that pollster or just something unique to that poll, like that ACT poll was (by another pollster though). Not that I pay much heed to polls 😛

  17. ShowsOn@18


    The SMH “poll” wording re Matheson is silly as these things always are. If someone thinks the joke was not in bad taste but doesn’t think political correctness has gone too far in general, how are they supposed to vote?


    IT”S A BLOODY WEB POLL!

    THEY ARE COMPLETELY MEANINGLESS!

    YOU ARE ON A POLLING BLOG! STOP EMBARRASSING US!

    How about you stop trolling long enough to find your caps lock key? Should only take you a few weeks if you try hard enough.

    Obviously I am well aware the results of online opt-ins are useless because of the unrepresentative sampling method; I was just pointing out this one was additionally so because of bad question design.

    *sigh*

  18. The less ethical bar

    McClelland has been hanging around Phillip St for yonks with the NSW ALP MLC whose name I have forgotten who was Jeff Shaw QC’s closest friend.

  19. Another bit of information about JWS

    Bridget O’Flynn ‏@BridgetOFlynn
    @mrumens @randlight And John Scales runs the company. Ex Crosby Textor.
    Hide conversation

  20. [Mr Newman urged Brisbane residents to haul in their water usage for the next 24 to 48 hours, saying the city could not sustain its usual level of water consumption – around 450 megalitres a day.

    He said Brisbane was currently drawing water from Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast reserves and that people needed to limit their water consumption to around 150 litres a day.]

    Oh would those be the Bligh pipelines that the LNP opposed? Funny how it gets ignored when they do what they were designed to do.

  21. Have been down the beach the foam is still around well and truly even though now pretty low tide. But the sun is shining and the humidity is really climbing not good

  22. guytaur@156


    “@BrigadierSlog: .@CUhlmann I’ve read McClelland’s statement, no (zero, nada, zilch) mention of going over a cliff. #CaughtMakingUpBullshit #TheirABC”

    Well, to be fair to Uhlmann it was never presented as a quote from McClelland. He threw it in as a comment from a supporter of McClelland. It’s a bit sneaky, but it’s not putting words in the man’s mouth.

  23. Ruawake Happy New Year. Thanks for reminding me re Eddie Groves. We should list the dramas Labor has faced since 24 Nov 07.

    Groves and having to bail out childcare centres has been forgotten by so many .

    GFC was next cab off the rank and what a cab, followed by Vic bushfires, floods, dismantling workchoices, enormous loss of tax revenue and much more, Grechgate.
    Labor has done incredibly well in the face of all that.

  24. bemused
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

    Meguire Bob@177

    Windsor camp would have notice , that Torbay reputation is questionable and the liberals/ coalition facing icac wont help torbay much

    I had never heard of Torbay prior to seeing him interviewed on TV and my reaction was that he was a rather peculiar little man.

    ———————————————-

    I have known and met Torbay for about 10 or so years

    Like i have told him a few time , i jsut dont trust him

  25. It was Robert McClelland who warned Attorney General Phillip Ruddock that the legislation for the Australian Military Court was most likely unconstitutional.

    Less than 2 years later the High Court ruled that this was the case.

  26. [Well, to be fair to Uhlmann it was never presented as a quote from McClelland. He threw it in as a comment from a supporter of McClelland. It’s a bit sneaky, but it’s not putting words in the man’s mouth.]

    It’s a way of putting a mthical someone else’s words into Uhlmann’s mouth.

    It sure ain’t journalism, and I’m not sure exactly what it is.

    He could have made that quote up himself. Probably did.

  27. guytaur@178


    “@JoeHockey: Rob McClelland – a very decent guy treated poorly by Julia Gillard. I genuinely wish him and his wonderful family all the very best.”

    This is what a Liberal would classify as ‘being positive’.

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