Seat of the week: Bruce

The eastern Melbourne seat held by Rudd numbers man Alan Griffin is theoretically loseable for Labor, although it stayed with them throughout the Howard years.

Bruce covers suburbs in eastern Melbourne from Glen Waverley and Wheelers Hill south to Springvale (home to substantial Vietnamese and Chinese communities) and Dandenong. The Monash Freeway bisects the electorate from north-west to south-east, serving as a rough divider between a strongly Labor-voting south and a broadly marginal north with pockets of strong Liberal support around Wheelers Hill. The redistribution has added around 7500 voters from those parts of Glen Waverley who were previously in Chisholm, which has garnished Labor’s margin from 8.1% to 7.7%.

Bruce was created in 1955 but has been substantially altered over time by redistribution, its original boundaries extending far beyond the city limits to Cranbourne in the east and Berwick in the south. Suburban expansion soon caused it to be drawn into its long-term base of Glen Waverley, and it assumed roughly its current dimensions when it acquired Labor-voting Noble Park and Dandenong North in 1996. This proved a watershed moment electorally, as the Liberals had previously held the seat without interruption and Labor has done so since.

The inaugural member for the seat was Billy Snedden, who went on to lead the Coalition in opposition from the wake of the 1972 election defeat until he was deposed by Malcolm Fraser in March 1975, and then to serve as Speaker throughout the period of the Fraser government. Snedden retired following the 1983 election defeat and was succeeded at the ensuing by-election by Kenneth Aldred, who had held the since-abolished eastern suburbs seat of Henty for the Liberals from 1975 until his defeat in 1980. In 1990 Aldred was defeated for Liberal preselection by Julian Beale, whose seat of Deakin had been made notionally Labor by a redistribution. Aldred then ran for Deakin himself, and managed to retain the seat on the back of a statewide backlash against Labor.

The 1996 redistribution gave Bruce a notional Labor margin of 1.6%, which Beale had to overcome if he was to retain his seat. In the event he could manage only 0.8%, a rare disappointment for the Liberals in the context of that election. The winning Labor candidate was Alan Griffin, who had previously held the abolished seat of Corinella. Bruce has since swung substantially according to the prevailing political winds, but has nonetheless remained fairly secure for Labor, the narrowest margin after 1996 being 3.5% in 2004.

A noted figure of influence in the Socialist Left faction, Griffin served as Veterans Affairs Minister in the first term of the Rudd-Gillard government before standing aside after the 2010 election. Griffin cited personal reasons for this decision, but he would soon emerge as a numbers man for Kevin Rudd’s leadership aspirations. Griffin announced he would not seek re-election in August 2011, before changing his mind in July 2012. He had earlier been fortunate to survive a preselection challenge for the 2007 election by Matt Carrick of the Right, who was reportedly thwarted by a single Transport Workers Union delegate who split from his faction’s line out of animus towards Carrick’s backers in the National Union of Workers.

The Liberals have endorsed Emanuele Cicchiello, Knox councillor and deputy principal of Lighthouse Christian College.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,010 thoughts on “Seat of the week: Bruce”

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  3. “@Simon_Cullen: Abbott re Tim Mathieson’s joke: “After everything the PM has said on these sorts of subjects… she does have to deal with this personally””

    “@Simon_Cullen: *correction of earlier tweet, Abbott said “…personally”, not “…person””

    “@Simon_Cullen: Lib Senator Brandis says the joke was in poor taste, but “I don’t think we want to have… a culture of finger-wagging & confected outrage””

  4. “@Simon_Cullen: Brandis:(This) just goes to show how stupid the culture of political correctness, which this Govt has deliberately fostered, has become””

  5. confessions
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 10:50 am | PERMALINK
    mari:

    Of course. An important distinction.

    Sure is Michelle G as I put on Twitter can’t have her boy having challenges can we :devil:

    BTW Just walked down to the beach(stopped raining sun trying to break through and the humidity is rising sharply, looks horrible out to sea) Anyway over the top of little dune I walk over all there is, is foam in the dead trees and bushes, no beach at all just foam and the waves,more trees have fallen in further down where the sea will eventually break through I think

  6. “@Simon_Cullen: Lib Senator Brandis says the joke was in poor taste, but “I don’t think we want to have… a culture of finger-wagging & confected outrage””

    Says the MP who was full of finger-wagging and confected outrage over Slipper texts and Thomson.

  7. Gottliebsen making lots of assumptions and not even considering what the position in the Senate might be even if abbott wins the election.

    Lots of counting chickens before their hatched in an attempt to talk their way into government.

    Business Spectator now run by murdoch and doesn’t it show – barely a word of critical analysis of abbott of any type in the article.

    Labor have to unite across the board to make sure abbott doesn’t get there.

    Abbott’s controversial new foundation for Australia

    If Tony Abbott and the Coalition win office at the next election Australia will be fundamentally changed.

    Whether Tony Abbott as prime minister can achieve his vision is another subject.

    But what is not in any doubt is that we are looking at a totally different society under Abbott, and that Labor’s fury of the next election campaign will be aimed at preventing this happening.

    …The first and biggest change is that he will immediately re-introduce the building industry rules for Commonwealth government tenders on large building projects in Australia, which can be expected cut the costs by 20 to 25 per cent.

    This is exactly what Victorian Premier Ted Baillieu is doing and New South Wales and later Queensland will follow – all three governments are appalled at current practices.

    In essence control of building sites and who can be sub-contractors will be taken away from the cartel of unions and companies.

    …Lend Lease has already been banned from Victoria because it would not or could not adhere to the Abbott-style Victorian building contract rules.

    …This is a vital lynch pin in the Abbott plan because the lower costs of infrastructure building would allow him to proceed with a dramatic set of big infrastructure projects in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland and proceed quickly. Longer term the infrastructure list includes dams in northern Australia to make Australia the food bowl of Asia.

    …He will need private capital …but does not yet set out how this will be done – a significant gap.

    …Tony Abbott has also said that he would not make fundamental changes to the superannuation system.

    …There is a second pillar that he has not often discussed – a different way of developing business.

    “With abundant coal and iron ore, Australia should have a natural advantage in making steel. With abundant bauxite and cheap power, Australia should have a natural advantage in making aluminium. With greater export orientation to drive higher production volumes, there is no reason why Australia cannot sustain a viable motor industry.

    …The threat to the Australian manufacturing industry doesn’t come from lack of subsidy but from ideologically driven taxes, union-brokered labour market changes and governments fixated on scoring political points ahead of good long-term policy.”

    The unions will see this is a concealed industrial relations attack.

    …The third area of fundamental change comes in the administration of schools, hospitals and large areas of the public service. The cost reductions Tony Abbott would achieve in these areas will be monumental and he believes they will fund his lower taxation policies and expenditure commitments.

    …For example, he aims to rationalise hospital and education expenditure between state and federal governments. His idea is to empower local school and hospital bodies and that will be done via much less bureaucratic involvement. Similarly, in the environment area the Commonwealth will set rules but will exit administration and give a lot more authority to states.

    …Enormous savings will be involved and many pubic servants will lose their jobs.

    …Of course, as we know, the carbon tax will be quickly eliminated

    Tomorrow, I will look at another Abbott change. It will mean that almost all of our larger companies will have to look again at the way they operate.

    Full article –

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/How-Abbott-would-lay-a-new-foundation-for-Australi-pd20130129-4DSH5?OpenDocument&src=sph&src=rot

  9. confessions

    Yeah after all talking about mussels in private texts is so much worse. Cannot be a speaker doing that.

    Hypocrisy is certainly a Coalition art form.

  11. guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 11:04 am | Permalink

    “@Simon_Cullen:

    ——————–

    Notice he didnt ask Abbott or Brandis about Abbott’s Australia day speech

  14. Does Gottliebson explain how discouraging competition by restricting who and who may not tender for projects leads to slashing prices?

    I haven’t been watching it closely, but my impression is that the Victorian government has created real problems for itself in the building industry, effectively playing favourites and creating workplace conflicts.

  15. “@Simon_Cullen: Jon Faine said his doctor wouldn’t perform a prostate check on him cause she said her fingers were too short.”

  16. “@PollyDunning: @profsarahj @tudorgrrrl @denysegibbs hmm yes, but I don’t really think saying 1 has small hands is offensive, like saying dark hair!”

  17. Hartcher is an alarmist cherry-picker with a clear agenda that has nothing to do with balance. Apparently war in our region is imminent and our defence force serves only to impress children. For goodness sake… does he actually get paid for this tripe?

  18. guytaur:

    Mathieson apologised for his comments. Did Laming apologise for his tweets? Did Abbott apologise for his insensitive Aus Day speech?

  20. “@sortius: #NBN progress stats released: one final negative onslaught http://t.co/GR6PNXdX via @ABCtech”

    “@sortius: @smh/@theage have shown they are in “Abbott for PM” camp, distorting #NBN figures & repeating Turnbull platitudes. ZDNet refuting this”

  21. For example, he aims to rationalise hospital and education expenditure between state and federal governments. His idea is to empower local school and hospital bodies and that will be done via much less bureaucratic involvement.

    I’ve dealt with this one before. Victoria has this system in place and has had it since Kennett.

    It doesn’t result in less bureaucracy; it ends up with more.

    In the case of hospitals, having local boards means having a local administration – a CEO, who has to be paid at comparitive rates to CEOs for local councils, and under them a range of middle managers, who have very little to do with delivering beds to patients and whose roles (in a more centralised model) could be covered at regional or state level (in some cases by far less well renumerated public servants).

    Of course, the proof in the pudding is that the system’s already operating in Victoria. I’m not aware that health and education have been dramatically improved in any way by it.

    (And if it has been, surely that should be the selling point of the policy? “Look at what’s happened in Victoria, where a Liberal government introduced these changes, resulting in X efficiencies compared to other states…’)

    We apparently not only have a Federal Opposition which is totally unaware of what’s happening outside of NSW but we have a media which is similarly clueless.

  23. zoomster

    A few in the media seem to have forgot Kevin Rudd’s campaign on health. A Labor campaign.

    Labor did not throw away the Rudd ideas. Just modified them.

    Media today is appalling

  24. 1820
    lizzie

    Well, I for one don’t mind if the Libs get a bit overconfident. Their true natures and future plans are more likely to shine through.

    Abbott is already finding it hard to avoid “when we’re in government”.

    May well be a deliberate campaign tactic, to portray themselves as the de facto government elect, just waiting for the administrative procedures to actually hand over the keys to them.

  26. Wyatt Roy and Natasha Griggs on Nova Peris’ preselection, with breath-taking hypocrisy given the way their party has handled preselections:

    Both of us took our chances with grassroots preselections. We stood before local gatherings of party members and argued our cases. Nerves jangled, but participating in a time-honoured and profoundly democratic procedure conferred a sense of occasion. It was emboldening, and strangely comforting. Winners and losers departed the proceedings with their heads held high.

    That’s the great story of democracy: that anyone from any background can achieve elected office through the democratic process.

    And concludes:

    To conclude: if you don’t want to participate in democratic processes, become a part of the Labor Party. Or join the Liberal Party and have every opportunity to be in federal parliament . . . regardless of your background.

    Rolled gold hypocrisy. Tell that to preselectors in Tangney who twice now have rejected Dennis Jensen only to have their wishes over-ruled by the federal leader’s ‘captain’s pick’ of reinstating Jensen.

    Tell that to preselectors in Robertson, who wanted someone else, only to have Lucy Wicks parachuted in by Abbott. Tell that to preselectors in Dobell who were reportedly furious at losing the opportunity to preselect their candidate!

    Tell that to preselectors in Cook who comprehensively rejected Morrison only to be over-ridden by HQ.

    And Abbott, who reportedly had this to say about preselections in NSW:

    Candidates must be chosen without local pre-selections, he decreed.
    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/liberal-dose-of-damage/story-e6frezz0-1226367837759

    Seriously, these two should be comprehensively canned for writing such untrue rubbish!

  27. More on the LIberal way of giving opportunity to all regardless of their background:

    So on the Central Coast, Abbott decreed, there would be no more shed men. In fact, there would be no men at all; instead, two “strong women”. In Dobell, it was Karen McNamara, who is backed by Hartcher, while in Robertson, it was Lucy Wicks…

  28. fess

    more importantly, how are Liberal Senators preselected?

    Local Labor branches have NEVER had a say in Senate preselections. It’s always been decided by a committee voted in by State Conference.

    Lower House preselections in the Labor party go through exactly the same process Roy and Griggs describe.

  29. BH

    Re Harmer’s article. This is from a link in the comments section.A most excellent speech by Shane Maloney given to Scotch College students in Melbourne.Here’s a sample

    “For these reasons, I was initially reluctant to come here.

    “On the other hand, I thought, ‘Well, all this is hardly the fault of the current crop of students.’ It is not your fault, after all, that your families decided to institutionalise you. It is not your fault that your mothers and fathers elected to place you in the emotionally distorting and educationally deficient environment of an all-boys school.

    “It is not your fault that your parents lacked sufficient confidence in your personal maturity and ability to respond to the opportunities offered by government school education – and Australia has one of the best systems in the world, by the way, despite the relentless propaganda to the contrary by the vested interest of the private-school lobby.

    “Right now, you are the victims. Later, of course, society will be your victim, and will suffer from the attitudes with which you are indoctrinated here.

    http://shanemaloney.com/articles-and-speeches/post/an-invitation-to-scotch-college/

  30. Zoomster – I’m old enough to remember old Hospital Boards where they were loaded up with ‘mates’ making decisions on people’s health.

    I’m concerned about what Abbott will do to public education. What happens to schools which decide not to sell. Will they get more funding from the Feds or less? Abbott will need to explain that one carefully. How silly of me, Abbott won’t need to explain. The MSM probably won’t question his policies.

  31. 1840
    Rex Douglas

    The NBN rollout will grind to a halt and likely be broken up and sold off – the MRRT/Super profits tax will be gone and with it funding for social programs – attacks on workers conditions will commence.

    And that will just be the start of it.

    The NBN in particular is a one-off opportunity. If we don’t get it done now it will never be finished properly.

  32. zoomster:

    It is stretching credulity for coalition MPs to declare outright that the LIberal party is the only party which gives everyone an opportunity to get into federal parliament regardless of background, when there are so many recent examples of this NOT being the case!

  33. Hi Bludgers all

    I fear that Tim Mathieson’s idiotic comments will have a bit of a slow burn effect: reinforcing the image pushed by KRudd and others (and reinforced by JG’s grating accent) of JG and TM as low-rent “bogans”.

    I believe public opinion is in a bit of a transitional stage at the moment: having swung fairly dramatically away from Abbott during the second half of 2012, I suspect it might drift back to him a bit simply because of continuing unease among many voters about Labor under Gillard: be it because they don’t like the idea of a woman PM, socially conservative, pro-Palestinian, anti-Green (a growing factor in Tassie, I’m afraid to say), or some combination of all of these factors (and, I might mention that I quite frequently encounter people who don’t like the idea of a female PM, and the overwhelming majority of these are themselves female).

    During this critical phase, the Labor Government needs desperately to avoid doing anything to tarnish its image. Kevin Rudd is enough of a problem, without Tim doing his best to emulate Prince Phillip.

    Oh dear………….

  34. 1870
    guytaur

    “@sortius: @smh/@theage have shown they are in “Abbott for PM” camp, distorting #NBN figures & repeating Turnbull platitudes. ZDNet refuting this”

    They are not so much in the ‘Abbott for PM’ camp, as the anti-NBN camp, in a desperate attempt to stave off the inevitable consequences for the OM and their jobs.

  35. zoomster – its all magic pudding stuff as usual.

    But the concern is its all being cheered on as the second coming by old media, as usual and there are voters who will fall for it.

  36. @lyndalcurtis: The PM says the joke by Tim Mathieson was in poor taste & he’s apologised. She says he’s very passionate about men’s health causes.

  38. 1876
    confessions

    Wyatt Roy and Natasha Griggs on Nova Peris’ preselection, with breath-taking hypocrisy given the way their party has handled preselections:

    Don’t know about Wyatt Roy, but the utterly beige Natasha Griggs winning pre-selection must surely be a good argument against such a process.

  39. Jo ‏@jot_au
    http://db.tt/USn57xN9 @randlight @nancycato1 @giddeygirl oh yes…and practice my daily voodoo routine …
    Hide photo Reply Retweet Favorite More

    who knew the voodoo that you’d do.jpg
    Dropbox @Dropbox · Follow

    Love this hope it comes through OK we were talking about the election of course

  40. MB

    You’re jumping at shadows a bit here. Labor are constantly being told to watch what they say with avoid this, avoid that advice. It’s all counterproductive in my view. My advice would be to get out there… speak loud and strong and to hell with the carping. The moment you tread carefully you fall off. Labor are the government… they have the best policies… the best team… and need to have the loudest voice whether it offends or not. Make mistakes… but get the message across.

  42. Oh please. A non-PC joke but the PMs partner isn’t going to decide the next election.

    Abbott’s comment only reinforce just how badly the PM got at him with her misogyny speech.

  43. “@Thefinnigans: Have u seen this headline on #MSM #TheirABC @ABCNews24 @ABCthedrum @abc730 “ABC MD makes an apology to PM for calling her JULIAR””

  44. During this critical phase, the Labor Government needs desperately to avoid doing anything to tarnish its image. Kevin Rudd is enough of a problem, without Tim doing his best to emulate Prince Phillip.

    Oh dear………….

    O what fatuous bullshit!

  45. How I wish there was an edit function:

    “Oh please. A non-PC joke by the PM’s partner isn’t going to decide the next election.

    Abbott’s comment only reinforces just how badly the PM got at him with her misogyny speech.”

  48. I have just read the JWS polling detailed in the AFR. Has anyone commented on the likely MOE?

    If it is accurate it does confirm my gut feel that the ALP is in trouble in NSW because of the ICAC stuff, Robertson’s inability to gain traction and NSW’s still seeing ALP as on the nose. In addition O’Farrell has been careful not to frighten the horses.

    The NSW position will make it very difficult for ALP to retain office federally this year.

  49. Queen Beatrix of the Netherlands has announced she will abdicate in favour of her son, Crown Prince Willem-Alexander, at the end of April after 33 years in power.

    “It is with the greatest of confidence that I will hand over the throne on April 30 to my son, Willem-Alexander, Prince of Orange,” she told national television, using the official title of the heir apparent.

    The queen, who turns 75 on Thursday, said her birthday and the 200th anniversary of the monarchy “were the reason for me to step down”.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-29/dutch-queen-to-hand-over-throne-to-son/4488054

  50. Lynchpin

    MOE is doubtful. How was poll conducted. That is how many mobile only phone users contacted?

    I know a few and they are Labor or Green voters. One a Liberal voter.

    Anecdotal. However the point remains how skewed are polls excluding mobile users?

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