Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Newspoll has opened its account for 2013 with an encouraging result for Labor, recording a primary vote six points higher than the previous poll of December 7-9.

The result of the first Newspoll for 2013 has been reported by AAP (your guess as to how that’s come about is as good as mine) and almost simultaneously by the ever-reliable James J, and it’s a relatively encouraging one for Labor who trail just 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 in the final poll of 2012. The primary votes are 38% for Labor, up six on last time, with the Coalition and the Greens both down two, to 44% and 9% respectively. Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 49% while Tony Abbott is up one to 29% and down one to 58%. Gillard leads as preferred prime minister by 45-33, up from 43-34.

UPDATE (16/1/13): A Morgan face-to-face result covering both the previous two weekends (and presumably warranting more than the usual degree of caution on account of the holiday period) has the Coalition leading 51-49 when preferences are distributed as per the 2010 election result, and by 52-48 according to respondent allocation. The primary votes are 36.5% for Labor, 41.5% for the Coalition and 10.5% for the Greens. This follows what now looks an aberrant result in the final poll of last year, when Labor led 53.5-46.5 on previous election preferences and 52.5-47.5 on respondent-allocated.

UPDATE (19/1/13): AAP reports a ReachTEL poll of 511 respondents conducted for the United Voice union in Wayne Swan’s Brisbane seat of Lilley suggests he is heading for defeat, trailing LNP candidate Rod McGarvie 45% to 38% on the primary vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,565 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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    Where does the OO find these idiots? And are the editors on permanent lunch break?

    [There are plenty of examples of how environmental laws are threatening investment (Woodside’s gas refinery at James Price Point is one $40 billion case among many).]

    Wrong! Its the actual companies involved wanting to do processing offshore, and Colin being unhappy about that.

    And the premise? Somehow the Noalition are the hard headed realists and the ALP has no policy but spin and sentimentalism?? In OO land their respective records mean nothing.

    [Niki Savva has an unusual depth of political experience and nous. She has grasped, better than anyone, the nuances of the political shadow play that is now going on in Canberra with the leitmotif of sentimentality.]

    Oh FFS. Sava??

  2. I calculate that Lilley poll as merely lineball rather than a clear loss for Swan, on the available margin. It’s a 3.5% swing against a 3.2 point margin.

  3. OK, who is it who is posing as JM?

    I, like others, have come to the conclusion, after reading through this mornings posts in particualr, that he/she is a troll.

    Someone Last night said it was shows on. Any others spring to mind?

  4. This is certainly the best fisking of they faked the moonlandings I’ve ever seen.

    It is also an excellent response to “truthers” in general — well maybe not to them, but certainly to those of us who have to endure their ranting about all manner of stupidity. It’s quiet and understated yet compelling.

    A special shout-out here to Bushfire Bill, who I feel sure, will especially love this one.

  5. Kevin

    Even if a swing didn’t deliver Wayne Swan’s scalp. A swing against the ALP of this size (or even less) would still them do damage – take out Moreton and Petrie (I think on the latter, couldn’t find a pendulum fast).

  6. Laocoon
    I am truly impressed.
    I have not had any similar success in antiquarian bookshops – only picking up a few neglected signed first editions by the now long forgotten – in particular a few venemous efforts by Jack Lang and some soviet realist poetry by Yevtushenko.

    There is an episode in the Adrian Mole series where he is pricing books in an antiquarian shop and marks down an old copy of 1984 because “some idiot called Eric Blair” had written on the title page.

  7. Lilley ReachTEL commissioned by:

    “United Voice, which represents childcare workers, said the results prove Labor must adopt policies for working people to win seats such as Lilley.”

  8. […it seems to me this leaked Morgan result …]

    What leaked Morgan result??!

    Meanwhile Ashbygate hasn’t roused any journos from their slumber it seems. Mo biggie, just a potential criminal conspiracy to bring down a govt – BORING!.

    Whats the latest on the 20 year old AWU saga, thats what the punters want to know, ay Scoop?

  9. Interesting that the Lilley poll shows Abbott (-22.3) with a better netsat than Gillard (-24.5) although presumably its 2PP is no worse than the national average and perhaps slightly better.

  10. Everyone has been making a huge fuss over Julia Gillard having a chat with that bloke from the Australian Christian Lobby, screaming that because she did so she must be in agreement with his entire religious philosopy. As if..

    But no-one seemed to have noticed that Tony Abbott’s Pollie Pedal was sponsored, among others, by the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints, aka the Mormons. It’s there, loud and proud on his own website. Surely that’s an opening for a bit of a favour being asked later on, should Action Man ever (God forbid) become PM. You scratch my back….

  11. DisplayName:

    [Ah, the old days when the sun was brighter, the grass greener and the tomatoes tasted better.]

    O’ course, we ‘ad it toof … i’ thorz days, it were that ‘ot if yer stook yer ‘ed out the window it’d fair explode … but you tell the yoong people o’ today thart ‘n they wornt believe ya …


  12. Here in SA all the talk is about Lord Downer, who apparently is going to do a Campbell Newman – lead the Libs from outside parliament and sweep to victory (with his business partner’s wife, Natasha Stott Despoja, as his edcuationh minister).

  13. That Lilley poll is sobering. Labor has to WIN seats in Queensland to be competitiver.

    They do, and it’s hard to see them doing so. Lilley will most likely go because of Swan’s low personal rating. As I said yesterday, Labor will probably lose about 7 seats in NSW, and I would expect 2 to go in Tas, 1 (at least) in WA, and 1 in the NT. LaTrobe and Corrangamite are also attainable in Vic.

  14. I’m far from being an expert at identifying each poster’s personal style, but I seem to remember that Shows On had a sense of humour.

  15. O’ course, we ‘ad it toof … i’ thorz days, it were that ‘ot if yer stook yer ‘ed out the window it’d fair explode … but you tell the yoong people o’ today thart ‘n they wornt believe ya …

    Yup yup, the mountains of yesteryear had deep valleys and high peaks incomparable to the pitiful eroded stumps and choked dustbowls we trudge today.

  16. GG
    1953 pfft
    If i could raise the effort I would post the speech NSWs first labor premier (James McGowen) gave when he was expelled in 1917
    All about careerists robbing the party of its soul and how tough it was during the 1890s strikes.

  17. OC

    I did say “at least”.

    It seems the make up of the Labor Party hasn’t changed much despite the faulty memories of those who were there.

  18. Yes, the Libs would just love it if Labor was still the party exclusively of blue-collar male trade-unionists, who must be about 5% of the electorate by now, so everyone else would vote Liberal. But Labor has always had a base in the middle class and in the professions, and as those classes have grown as a proportion of the workforce, so their representation in Labor caucuses has increased. The Liberals, on the other hand, were founded as the party of bankers, lawyers, real-estate agents and used-car dealers, and that’s what they still are.

  19. david – yes. Lyne, New England, Robertson, Dobell, Lindsay, Greenway and Banks. Page should also be attainable.

    Georgie – where am I wrong? Brand WA, Lingiari NT, Braddon/Bass Tas, Lilley Qld, and LaTrobe/Corrangamite Vic, are not attainable for the Coalition.

    I expect no change in SA and the ACT.

  20. davidwh@3464

    It’s QLD Kevin. The PM has less approval up here.

    Yes but I didn’t think it was to that extent. Well ahead of Abbott in most recent Nielsen breakdown for example.

    Also everyone should remember this Lilley poll is a commissioned poll by a group that has desires supported by the poll outcome. All such polls need to be treated cautiously – not questioning the pollster’s methods, just pointing out that there could be any number of these things commissioned by groups with agendas, many of them never seeing the light of day because the results weren’t convincing enough.

    Hopefully ReachTEL will put the full data up on their website soon.

  21. Psephos – your snide remarks about the Liberal party aside, despite their respective original target markets, everybody knows that the Liberals have a solid working class base, just as Labor has a solid middle class base.

    I am working class and hate Labor, but country working class are obviously different to urban middle class. I’ll vote National until I die.

  22. Gigi I really have no idea. I’ll leave it up to William to sort out any pretenders.

    There are some similarities but he/she may just be a National supporter who likes Abbott, Jones ets. There are many around.

  23. Psephos 3481:

    Stott Despoja is married to Ian Smith, former Kennett aide and current business partner of Alexander Downer (and Nick Bolkus). Given her pedigree you wouldn’t expect her to go to the Libs (she kicked around with Laborites at uni) but she is no longer a member of the Australian Democrats she once led.

    Bob Ellis once confronted her with “Why did you marry that Nazi?”

  24. [ Psephos
    … But Labor has always had a base in the middle class and in the professions, and as those classes have grown as a proportion of the workforce… ]

    A very sane and obvious post. So why your desire for labor to have an immigration policy that panders to the worst that can be found in western sydney?

  25. [J M
    Posted Saturday, January 19, 2013 at 2:46 pm | Permalink

    I am working class and hate Labor, but country working class are obviously different to urban middle class. I’ll vote National until I die.]

    Next time your go to the doctor you really should give a little thought into who introduced medicare, and next time you walk past the school you should give some thought to who initiated a stimulus program that result in that new hall being built, and who opposed it’s construction. And perhaps you should ask the question, what in the hell has the national party done for me? I’d be interested in the answer to the question.

  26. [A very sane and obvious post. So why your desire for labor to have an immigration policy that panders to the worst that can be found in western sydney?]

    Because I don’t think the professionals should have everything their own way. Labor is a class coalition, and the working class is still a necessary component of it. Most Labor-voting professionals live in seats we don’t usually win. And if they’re alienated, it’s not fatal for us, since their votes mostly come back as Greens preferences. But the loss of working class votes is fatal, as was shown under Howard, particularly in 2001, which was fought on this very issue. (How soon we forget.) Anyway, on this issue I happen to think the workers of western Sydney are right and the professionals in Paddington are wrong.

  27. frednk – I opposed medicare myself, I don’t like handouts. My electorate has been eternally National, and schools and hospitals and everything else here are in fine state, and every time I’ve had a problem, I’ve found my member (current and former) to be very helpful.

    Next time you see an overpriced school hall, thousands of Muslim illegal immigrants, and hear the word pink batts, just remember one word – ‘Labor’.

  28. JM We’re you’re off the mark (and I suspect you very well know it ’cause you appear to give the odd blogger here a rev up!) is that it’s always been and will always be about the trend – in individual seats and nationally.

    If the pace of the trend back to Labor that started from around the end of July last year was maintained right through to October this year when the election will probably be, Labor would win in a landslide. That, of course, whilst highly desirable is also unlikely. However, what should become apparent throughout February and March is that a trend towards Labor continues (albeit at a slower pace) unless something happens to stop it.

    Personally, all things being equal, I’m expecting Labor to be in the lead across most polls by the end of March, beginning of April. Then, JM, I’ll look forward to your re-assessment!

  29. The argument for the defeat of Oakeshott and Windsor goes along these lines.
    “These seats were always Country Party and the actions of O and W are a betrayal. The voters are therefore waiting with baseball bats (God I hate that cliche)”
    This is a Nats meme and if repeated long enough the true blues will believe it.
    However other points that this argument neglects are:
    Before O and W these seats were 60:40 2PP
    Both O and W were Nats who left in disgust
    After they deserted their abilities as independents resulted in 2PPs in the high 60s/70s
    Not everyone is a PBer – a surprising number of voters vote on results rather than labels

    Therefore my opinion, for what it is worth,:
    O’s fate is now tied to Labor – if the government gets a healthy lead, his personal support and effectiveness as an independent will get him across the line. If Labor is on the nose he is Gone.
    Factors that may effect the above are: how much the Nats through into the campaign – O has survived enormous efforts in the past but may not this time
    How effective Gillespie is as a campaigner. The rumour was that he went into melt down last time because people said rude things about him.

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