Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research opens its account for 2013 much as it finished in 2012.

The first Essential Research poll for the year – indeed, the first poll full stop – has the Coalition leading Labor 54-46, a marginally better result for Labor than the 55-45 on which they closed their account in 2012. However, the primary votes are all unchanged on last time: 48% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor and 8% for the Greens. This survey also features Essential’s monthly measures of personal ratings, which have Julia Gillard up four points on approval to 41% and down four on disapproval to 49%; Tony Abbott steady on 33% and up one to 57%; and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister nudging from 43-34 to 42-33. Whereas Essential surveys are normally a two-week rolling average of about 1000 respondents for each week, this poll is just from the 1014 respondents in the January 9-13 survey period.

Entertainingly, the poll also takes the opportunity of the Queensland government recent effort to liven up the silly season by gauging opinion on electoral reform, with results well in line with other such polling in the past. Support for voluntary voting is at 40% with 49% opposed. Fifty-eight per cent say they would definitely vote if it were not compulsory against 25% for probably, 9% for probably not and 4% for definitely not. Only 13% support the lowering of the voting age to 16, with 78% opposed. The poll also finds first-past-the-post is the favoured electoral system, but only if opposition is allowed to split two ways, in classic first-past-the-post style. Preferential systems are favoured to first-past-the-post 48% to 44%, but that includes 22% support for the existing full preferential system and 26% for optional preferential, such as operates at New South Wales and Queensland state elections and was advocated by Bronwyn Bishop last week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

375 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  4. davidwh

    Nah the Morgan today or tomorrow should be more exciting I reckon.

    “@goldenglobes: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical – Hugh Jackman (@RealHughJackman) – Les Miserables – #GoldenGlobes”

  5. Really depends on how big the pool is and whether they add some fresh water from time to time. However agree it does have its shortcomings.

  7. So here we go.
    2013.
    The year Malcolm Turnbull becomes Prime minister.
    When will he make his move…..my money is on late May.

  8. at least Morgan is going out and talking to real people.

    Essential is just polling online coalition bots, it would appear. eg Abbott’s disapproval of only 57% is 10-15% below all other published polls.

  9. Just repeating my post in the old thread.
    From Essential
    Approval of Gillard has lifted four points to 41% in the last month — her best result in almost two years — while disapproval of her has fallen to 49%. She’s still in net disapproval territory, but in contemporary Australian politics those numbers aren’t bad.

    Where’s Mod Lib? He claimed Gillard had never been closer than -16 in Positive/negative ratios. I said I was pretty sure a recent poll had shown over 40 plus and high 40s minus, which this one is, for a net negative of 8. It’s getting closer to equal.

    If she turns it around to net positive in the next few months, the coalition is gone. Their whole campaign for the last two years has been aimed at discrediting Gillard, aided somewhat by the Rudd comeback moves.

    If they can’t take her out they’re gone. She’s already got it all over them in policy and legislative achievement.

    If they’re silly enough now to try to run with a ‘test of character’ meme, and it’s Gillard vs Abbott, as Latham has said it’s no contest. Labor wins hands down.

  11. sprocket 57% is not too far out from recent Newspoll result for TA disapproval (59/61/63/58). I don’t think he has ever been 70% or over?

  12. guytaur not the FTF results, or recent FTF results which had Labor leading 52.5/47.5. Morgan FTF generally has a significant Labor bias as compared to other polling.

  13. So, 87% of ALP voters approve of Gillard. 🙂

    Abbott’s approval stagnant, and disapproval steadily climbing.

    Room for improvement in the primary vote though. 🙂

  14. William
    [This survey also features Essential’s monthly measures of personal ratings, which have Julia Gillard up four points on approval to 41% and down four on approval to 49%]
    Is there a “dis” missing there? Disapproval to 49%?

  16. davidwh

    57 + 10% = 62
    57 + 15% = 65

    last Neilsen Poll – read the Abbott disapprobval line accros demographics

    60 thru 66

  19. The Essential poll has 15 “Leader Attributes”. On only 5 is the difference between Gillard and Abbott more than 10% points, namely (Gillard – Abbott);
    [Arrogant -14%
    Good in a crisis +11%
    Narrow minded -11%
    Intolerant -12%
    Erratic -11%]
    (Intelligent was next at +8%)

    Good frame.

  20. davidwh

    haha

    Perhaps William does not wish to disturb the ghosts in the machine, and risk a repeat of yesterday’s outage!

  21. Figures for Abbott are basically the same as the last two months of last year: Nov 33-58, Dec 33-56, now 33-57.

    Gillard polled exactly the same (41-49) as now in November but 37-53 in Dec.

    Essential has rather lenient approval ratings compared to some others. All of Nielsen, Newspoll and Morgan have Abbott’s worst ever disapproval rating at 63.

  23. Another pathetic primary/2PP vote for Gillard & the ALP. Baseball bats are ready for you Julia and your abysmal government.

  25. Kevin Bonham

    Does essential do a similar method as Newspoll. Remembering Newspoll discovered that 1.5% they were not counting on the rolls for Non LNP voters?

  26. I’m not too sure that Essential’s rankings should be taken at face value. But they do suggest one thing that I think is probably correct – voter perceptions are quite firmly anchored, and move only slowly. Isn’t this exactly what we would expect in mid-cycle? Voters are not yet exercising choice, simply exhibiting their reflex responses. What this does show is that the LNP are failing to crack JG’s persona. This is in spite of intense and prolonged attacks using the AWU story. This must be a worry to them. Their weeks of assault only made JG stronger.

  27. guytaur@25


    Kevin Bonham

    Does essential do a similar method as Newspoll. Remembering Newspoll discovered that 1.5% they were not counting on the rolls for Non LNP voters?

    Essential uses a pool recruited from the internet and then, as I understand it, weights the results to adjust to demographic data.

  28. [23
    Stephen T
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 3:03 pm | Permalink

    Another pathetic primary/2PP vote for Gillard & the ALP. Baseball bats are ready for you Julia and your abysmal government.]

    You are in the wrong century Stephen T. Voters will shower JG with songs and flowers, while your LNP will hurl stones at each other.

  30. That persistent 48% PV to the Coalition is ringing methodological alarm bells for me.

    Difficult to believe that a properly randomised population sample could be that stable on an issue as soft and volatile as political opinion.

  32. Kevin Bonham
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 2:58 pm | Permalink

    Figures for Abbott are basically the same as the last two months of last year: Nov 33-58, Dec 33-56, now 33-57.

    Gillard polled exactly the same (41-49) as now in November but 37-53 in Dec.

    Thanks for that, Kevin. It rather confirms my position vs Mod Lib that if there had been a fall in Gillard’s approval, it could be attributed to the AWU/S&G smear which created a lot of media noise at the time. That’s already dead as a media news item – so it’s understandable her support returned to the norm before all the stunts with Blewett.

  33. Kevin

    Thanks. That means its pretty clear where the difference comes from. The pool and weighted demographics.

    So no worries like Newspoll has about who was not on the roll last time and is now.

  34. @greencate: Wow, in response to tragic death of Aaron Swartz #pdftribute has academics the world over sharing their research. Powerful stuff.

  35. davidwh – The National mood is changing and ‘not necessarily to the advantage of the LNP’.

    We will see this in action in the months ahead.

  37. Abbott and his cronies ranted ad nauseum that the carbon price would be a disaster for the punters. This is despite a generous compensation package for most working people. BoF goes ahead and announces that they are considering $300 levy per annum per working person for fire service. Talk about hypocrisy writ large. How can we talk the tories seriously!

  38. Stephen T
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 3:03 pm | Permalink

    Another pathetic primary/2PP vote for Gillard & the ALP. Baseball bats are ready for you Julia and your abysmal government.

    ————————————

    What would you say if morgan poll was more closer to the truth

    labor 52.5% – coalition 47.5

  45. [Andrew Hedge ‏@andrew_hedge
    @roymorganonline Can you please tell me if there is a federal poll due to be released today? If not, what date is first for 2013?
    11:51 AM – 14 Jan 13

    Roy Morgan ‏@roymorganonline
    @andrew_hedge hi Andrew, our next federal poll will be out tomorrow. Stay tuned.
    3:30 PM – 14 Jan 13]
    Looks like they are still collating the face to face, fellow that told me it could be out today was a bit ambitious, given they would have only finished on Sunday.

  46. Meguire Bob

    Just admit Gillard is the worst PM ever and makes Gough Whitlam look like Winston Churchill. How can you possibly believe Australians will re-elect this rabble. Debt, waste, Border security debacle (Timor Solution/ Malaysia), carbon tax lie, surplus promise down the toilet, live cattle debacle, Peter Slipper, Craig Thompson, AWU, Australia Day fiasco I can go on and on. My 3 yr old son can do a better job than Gillard!!!!

  47. Stephen T

    Must be great living in that Jones, Abbott inspired fantasy world. Try facts sometime.

    Ignoring reality worked out so well for Romney.

  50. Stephen T

    Your preaching to the converted here, mate. I suggest you ring 2GB on 131873 and say:

    ” I used to vote ALP, but never again …” and then list out your talking points. Might be able to convert some waverers there.

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