Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research opens its account for 2013 much as it finished in 2012.

The first Essential Research poll for the year – indeed, the first poll full stop – has the Coalition leading Labor 54-46, a marginally better result for Labor than the 55-45 on which they closed their account in 2012. However, the primary votes are all unchanged on last time: 48% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor and 8% for the Greens. This survey also features Essential’s monthly measures of personal ratings, which have Julia Gillard up four points on approval to 41% and down four on disapproval to 49%; Tony Abbott steady on 33% and up one to 57%; and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister nudging from 43-34 to 42-33. Whereas Essential surveys are normally a two-week rolling average of about 1000 respondents for each week, this poll is just from the 1014 respondents in the January 9-13 survey period.

Entertainingly, the poll also takes the opportunity of the Queensland government recent effort to liven up the silly season by gauging opinion on electoral reform, with results well in line with other such polling in the past. Support for voluntary voting is at 40% with 49% opposed. Fifty-eight per cent say they would definitely vote if it were not compulsory against 25% for probably, 9% for probably not and 4% for definitely not. Only 13% support the lowering of the voting age to 16, with 78% opposed. The poll also finds first-past-the-post is the favoured electoral system, but only if opposition is allowed to split two ways, in classic first-past-the-post style. Preferential systems are favoured to first-past-the-post 48% to 44%, but that includes 22% support for the existing full preferential system and 26% for optional preferential, such as operates at New South Wales and Queensland state elections and was advocated by Bronwyn Bishop last week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

375 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  2. [… I can go on and on.]

    Yes, you forgot to compare Gillard to Goebbels. That always gets a great response from Alan Jones.

  4. 54-46? As a lifelong National voter, I will take that, great way to start the way. Meanwhile, all of you pathetic Laborites can grasp to approval ratings, which at the end of the day mean nothing.

  7. Stephen T
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 3:51 pm | Permalink

    Meguire Bob

    Just admit Gillard is the worst PM ever and makes Gough Whitlam look like Winston Churchill. How can you possibly believe Australians will re-elect this rabble. Debt, waste, Border security debacle (Timor Solution/ Malaysia), carbon tax lie, surplus promise down the toilet, live cattle debacle, Peter Slipper, Craig Thompson, AWU, Australia Day fiasco I can go on and on. My 3 yr old son can do a better job than Gillard!!!!

    Before you return to Menzies House, Steohen, a couple of useful bookmarks which might improve your comprehension

    http://thefinnigans.blogspot.com.au/

    On yer bike.

  12. Just admit Abbott is the worst LOTO ever and makes Alexander Downer look like John Curtin. How can you possibly believe Australians will elect this rabble. Debt, waste, Border security debacle (Timor Solution/ Malaysia), carbon pricing lie, surplus promises down the toilet, Sophie Mirabella, Peter Slipper, Australia Day fiasco, I can go on and on. My 3 yr old son can do a better job than Abbott!!!!

    (Fixed; needed remarkably few changes).

  14. [zoomster
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:18 pm | PERMALINK
    Just admit Abbott is the worst LOTO ever and makes Alexander Downer look like John Curtin. How can you possibly believe Australians will elect this rabble. Debt, waste, Border security debacle (Timor Solution/ Malaysia), carbon pricing lie, surplus promises down the toilet, Sophie Mirabella, Peter Slipper, Australia Day fiasco, I can go on and on. My 3 yr old son can do a better job than Abbott!!!!

    (Fixed; needed remarkably few changes).]

    Very impressed with your editing and so few changes needed to make the original statement accurate! Pleased I logged back on to see that 😉

  15. Honestly, Essential is just a nonsense.

    The majority clearly favour Gillard over Abbott and support most of the Govts major policies/programs, yet the PV and 2PP favor the Coalition??
    Nonsense!!

  18. @54

    Another has escaped the 2GB box. Must be a quiet day over there.

    I often wondered what it was like to be part of a minority group (Nationals) who get somewhere between 3 and 6% of the vote.

    Also out of their league here.

  21. [Stephan T sounds like Desert Fox or the ex-tank WA guy but can spell.]

    Often I wonder if William just does these to keep the Blog moving along.

  22. [CTar1
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:32 pm | PERMALINK
    Stephan T sounds like Desert Fox or the ex-tank WA guy but can spell.

    Often I wonder if William just does these to keep the Blog moving along.]

    Cheeky 😉

  23. “@ABCNews24: Kevin Rudd (@KRuddMP) joins #TheDrum tonight, discussing the current situation in #Syria + #auspol. 6pm AEDT on #abcnews24”

  24. Tricot – how many seats do the Nats contest? Unlike Labor and Liberal, hardly any. Abbott will be a great PM, and I can’t wait until that happens in August/September.

  25. Tricot

    The sad fact is you support a PM who is totally out of her league in doing her job. In 8-10 months time Gillard will join Kirner, Bligh, Keneally & Lawrence as failed ALP female leaders. What a great club to join.

  26. Actually Gillard is a long way from being the worst PM.

    To qualifier surely you need to cause a recession or been brought down by a major corruption scandal or lose seat at election and Gillard has done non of those three things.

  27. JM if you are correct on the second point we can only pray you are at least half right on the first point. One is possible and the other a real challenge.

  29. [” I used to vote ALP, but never again …”]

    Ah, yes, the golden oldies. They don’t write ’em like they used to!

    I remember when every online comment from Menzies House and the IPA used to start with that classic – until it was pointed out to them that they might come across as slightlyl more believable if every single comment didn’t contain exactly the same phrases.

    Halcyon days in many ways.

  30. Stephen – also, just to add to your post, the only one elected out of the lot is Bligh. All of the others were put there, and/or did so through betrayal.

  33. Anna Bight was an okay premier and her performance during the floods was outstanding.

    Her defeat was due to a number of factors such as its time and the broken promise not to sell assets such as QR National.

  35. I met a girl at the dump on friday , and she has moved in already. Her name is Zena.

    How can I load a photo on here ??????

  36. [What a great club to join.]

    Yep. The ‘PMs who have lost their seat’ club, that’s a bit more exclusive, albeit the sort of club one wouldn’t join if one were admitted. (Literature, mate. I know you’re a tory boy with no knowledge of the valuable things in life, so just google it.)

  38. I smell a rat.

    Stephen T can spell correctly and doesn’t fill his posts with capital letters. Even though there is a bit of exclamation mark overkill and he spelt ‘Thomson’ wrong I’m still not convinced. Stephen T will have to dumb it down a bit if he wants me to believe he’s a genuine Abbott supporter.

  43. Do you think this bunch of trolls might be orchestrated by none other than Johnny “Golom” Howard? There is something Howardesque about their language.

  46. [J M
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 4:38 pm | Permalink
    Tricot – how many seats do the Nats contest? Unlike Labor and Liberal, hardly any. Abbott will be a great PM, and I can’t wait until that happens in August/September    ]

    Actually if Abbott manages to lie his way into the Lodge later this year he will an absolute embarrassment and will be gone well before the time of the 2016 poll.

  47. [ In 8-10 months time Gillard will join Kirner, Bligh, Keneally & Lawrence as failed ALP female leaders. What a great club to join.]

    What’s interesting about this comment is the focus on failed FEMALE leaders.

    What have you rabid Tories got against women? It’s getting kinda creepy. I can see why you’re a huge fan of Abbott’s.

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