Essential Research: NSW, Victoria and Queensland state polls

Essential Research has aggregated its data from November and December to produce state polling results of 60-40 to the Coalition in New South Wales, 53-47 to the LNP in Queensland, and 50-50 in Victoria.

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Essential Research has rolled together its polling for November and December to produce results on state voting intention from New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, with respective sample sizes of 1386, 1170 and 719, and respective margins of error of 2.7%, 2.9% and 3.7%. The results are readily in line with the general impression of polling elsewhere, to wit:

• The Coalition continues to look strong in New South Wales, with a primary vote essential unchanged on the election result at 51%, Labor up from 25.6% to 31% and the Greens down from 10.3% to 8%. The Coalition’s two-party lead is 60-40, compared with an election result of 64.2-35.8.

• The going is considerably rougher for the Baillieu government, who are at 50-50 after snatching the narrowest of victories at the November 2010 election from a result of 51.6-48.4. The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition, 39% for Labor and 11% for the Greens, compared with election results of 44.8%, 36.2% and 11.2%.

• The result in Queensland is at the strong end of the polling trend for Labor, who trail by just 53-47 on two-party preferred after the 62.8-37.2 demolition inflicted at the election. The LNP primary vote is at 41% compared with 49.7% at the election, with Labor up from 26.7% to 35% and the Greens up from 7.5% to 8%. Pollsters seem to be struggling at getting a believably high figure for Katter’s Australian Party, although Essential has done better than Newspoll in having it at 7%, compared with 11.5% at the election.

All three governments score net negative ratings on “heading in right/wrong direction”, health, education, economic management, “managing the economy in the interests of ordinary working people”, industrial relations, unemployment, planning, public transport, the environment and water. The strongest results across the board are for police/public safety, with the only net positive rating in the entire survey being the score on this measure in Victoria. The Newman government does particularly badly on health, ordinary working people, industrial relations and unemployment, while the Baillieu government does poorly on education and gets savaged on public transport.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2 comments on “Essential Research: NSW, Victoria and Queensland state polls”

  1. The situation may be less certain for the Newman govt in Qld. This story over the break illustates that they are capable of cutting private sector jobs as well as public sector ones, with Virgin airlines under threat.
    [Virgin Australia has denied reports it is planning to move its national headquarters out of Brisbane.

    The airline says it is frustrated over negotiations with the Queensland Government to fly to more regional centres.

    Many regional routes are controlled and in some cases subsidised by the State Government.

    Virgin Australia is currently locked out of those routes but contracts with existing carriers expire in March.

    The threatened pullout comes as Virgin tries to tender for several routes, either regulated or subsidised by the government, including to Roma, Longreach, Cloncurry, and Charleville.

    Qantaslink’s contracts for these routes are due to expire in March, and Virgin has been seeking to have the market deregulated to give it a chance to fly them.]

    Regional flights in Qld are quite expensive – you may more to fly from Brisbane to Cloncurry than to Perth – and include lucrative air freight services with them.

    Note there are really two decisions here. One is to subsidise regional air fares and restrict competitors. The second is to give the contract to Qantas Link without tender. It is the second part I question.

    It is touching to see that the Newman government’s commitment to the efficiency of the private sector does not stop it protecting a private monopoly.

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