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GhostWhoVotes brings us Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates for October-December, a period which saw the Coalition’s lead narrow from 54-46 in the previous quarter to 52-48. Listed below are Labor’s state-level two-party results for both this Newspoll release and the three Nielsen results published in the same period. Whereas the samples from Newspoll are pretty sturdy all the way through, Nielsen’s combined samples for the two smallest states would be below 400, while Nielsen’s Queensland sample would be significantly smaller than Newspoll’s (perhaps 750 compared with 1300).
It is Queensland that provides the biggest disparity between the two, and while the sample size differential lends greater weight to Newspoll’s result, a Galaxy survey of 800 respondents conducted in mid-November came in between at 56-44. However, it’s worth noting that Newspoll’s respondents are the same ones that produced the 56-44 state result published earlier this week, a result in perfect accord with both Galaxy and ReachTEL.
Election Newspoll Nielsen National 50.1 48 48 New South Wales 49.5 48 47 Victoria 55.3 54 51 Queensland 44.9 42 47 Western Australia 43.6 45 47 South Australia 53.2 50 53