Newspoll quarterly aggregate

Newspoll’s final quarterly aggregate for 2012 covers a period of Labor recovery, but finds softer support for Labor in Queensland than Nielsen over the same period.

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GhostWhoVotes brings us Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates for October-December, a period which saw the Coalition’s lead narrow from 54-46 in the previous quarter to 52-48. Listed below are Labor’s state-level two-party results for both this Newspoll release and the three Nielsen results published in the same period. Whereas the samples from Newspoll are pretty sturdy all the way through, Nielsen’s combined samples for the two smallest states would be below 400, while Nielsen’s Queensland sample would be significantly smaller than Newspoll’s (perhaps 750 compared with 1300).

It is Queensland that provides the biggest disparity between the two, and while the sample size differential lends greater weight to Newspoll’s result, a Galaxy survey of 800 respondents conducted in mid-November came in between at 56-44. However, it’s worth noting that Newspoll’s respondents are the same ones that produced the 56-44 state result published earlier this week, a result in perfect accord with both Galaxy and ReachTEL.

			Election	Newspoll	Nielsen
National		50.1		48		48
New South Wales		49.5		48		47
Victoria		55.3		54		51
Queensland		44.9		42		47
Western Australia	43.6		45		47
South Australia		53.2		50		53

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

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