Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

Newspoll ends the year with a three-point blowout in the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead, matching the latest Essential Research result which is a point higher for the Coalition than last week’s.

The final Newspoll for 2012 has the Coalition opening up a 54-46 lead, up from 51-49 last time, from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down four), 46% for the Coalition (up three) and 11% for the Greens (steady). However, personal ratings are little changed, with Julia Gillard on 36% approval (down one) and 52% disapproval (steady), Tony Abbott on 28% approval (down two) and 59% disapproval (down two), and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 46-33 to 43-34. Hat tip as always to James J, whom the Poll Bludger wishes a very happy new year.

Essential Research also has the Coalition leading 54-46, which is up a point on last week, from primary votes of 36% for Labor (down one), 48% for the Coalition (up one), 8% for the Greens (down one). The monthly personal approval ratings show a sharp fall for Julia Gillard, down four on approval to 37% and up four on disapproval to 53%, with Tony Abbott respectively steady on 33% and down two to 56%. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 45-32 to 43-34. Also featured are questions on gas and electricity prices, which find 27% blaming the federal government, 16% state government and 45% power companies, and 56% believing power generation and distribution should be operated by government against 24% for private companies. A question on media regulation has 44% believing the Press Council should deal with complaints against 28% for a new government-appointed organisation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,623 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 109 of 113
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  1. The simplest thing to do would be to require Ashby to appear before the Privileges Committee. This is about the least and the most that can be expected.

  2. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/15/us/politics/redistricting-helped-republicans-hold-onto-congress.html
    [How Maps Helped Republicans Keep Edge in the House
    By GRIFF PALMER and MICHAEL COOPER
    Published: December 14, 2012

    Wisconsinites leaned Democratic when they went to the polls last month, voting to re-elect President Obama, choosing Tammy Baldwin to be their new United States senator and casting more total votes for Democrats than Republicans in races for Congress and the State Legislature.

    But thanks in part to the way that Republicans drew the new Congressional and legislative districts for this year’s elections, Republicans will still outnumber Democrats in Wisconsin’s new Congressional delegation five to three — and control both houses of the Legislature. ]

  3. @sjjohn77: @JoeHockey @tonyabbottmhr @juliebishopmp Just heard a Journo is almost ready to reveal 4 front bench Liberals who were involved #Ashbygate.

    And then this in reply ….

    @viewsofpoint: @sjjohn77 @joehockey @tonyabbottmhr @juliebishopmp C Pyne will be feeling a little nervous right now, hope the beer + cock was worth it.

    Hmmmm

  4. My maternal grandmama used to declare that it was better to be born lucky than good-looking (she, of course, was both).

    Well, TLBD, CTar1, and Boerwar can attest to the fact that moi is not good-looking.

    Moi can now assert, however, that moi is the luckiest woman in the world.

    So, I was driving out of Holbrook a bit after 10 this morning, crawling behind a truck doing 50kph in an 80kph zone. I knew that there was a divided road ahead, so crawled patiently until the divided road started. I pulled into the right-hand lane, accelerated gently, found a patch of wet road combined with loose gravel and …

    … one not-quite-controlled skid and two complete rolls of the car later I was on the far side of the table drain (I controlled the skid just enough to pass four or five very solid eucalypts).

    The car is a write-off, but apart from a few seatbelt and steering wheel bruises, I am unscathed – not even shaky.

    People flocked from near and far: the ambos, the workmen, the police, and the tow-truck guys all told me I was lucky to be alive.

    Thumbed a ride back to Albury with the tow-truck, and OH drove up to collect me. I even drove the last 50km into Melbourne so my nerves are still fine!

    The towing business was family-owned, and the founding father of it was deputed to look after me until OH turned up – seriously fascinating conversations mostly about trucking but also touching on the nefarious deeds of insurance companies, wharfies, lawyers, and other assorted miscreants.

    People are so kind – and I do know that I am the luckiest woman in the world

    🙂

  5. People, do try and get real, just for once. None of this is going to happen. The Coalition and the Murdoch press will drop Ashby, Labor has already dropped Slipper, like a pair of rather mouldy hot potatoes. Neither side has any interest in this matter dragging on next year. Both sides will settle for the draw and let it die over the summer.

  7. Psephos … I have been banging on about ‘no specificknowledgegate’ since this started …. And still think there is mileage in this for the ALP. The authorizes think they can get away with it … I don’t think so….

  8. briefly@5394


    5388
    Puff, the Magic Dragon…. a zonked dragon…don’t see that often either.

    Yes, well I might pour myself a glass or two of Muscat I forgot to give someone for their birthday. No point wasting it.

  12. briefly@5391,
    …btw, I left a post for you on page 92 (4558,I think). Did you see it?

    Yes, I saw it. I was too embarrassed to reply, actually. Though, a big thank you. 😳

  14. Fiona:

    From personal experience, Holbrook is surrounded by dirt roads that, when wet, can be very nasty indeed.

    Thank heavens you had a lucky escape. I’ve seen others not quite so lucky…..

  15. fiona

    when some bloggers where saying becareful this
    morning re driving, i shivered

    thought she will be fine we all say to each other when we leave home especially our chidren

    well u see one never knows,, glad you ok
    but i bet reaction sets in tomorrow rest up

  16. Fiona.
    Wow. I am so glad you are alright. Lucky indeed. And a bit of skill in controlling that skid. Buy a lottery ticket.

  17. [ briefly
    Posted Saturday, December 15, 2012 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

    but Ashby’s attack has not been construed as an attack on The Speaker and The House, but as a personal matter ]

    Its political and really only of moment because he was Speaker. How many backbenchers etc have had ‘involvements’ or whatever that have never come to light.

    How many current other ‘senior or important people’ within the current or past parliaments have stuff that would embarrass them and others if it came to light?

    Rares found –

    [
    Mr Ashby acted in combination with Ms Doane and Mr Brough when commencing the proceedings in order to advance the interests of the LNP and Mr Brough.
    …
    They used their positions on his staff surreptitiously to copy and provide extracts from Mr Slipper’s diaries for periods in 2009 and 2010 at the requests of both Mr Brough and Mr Lewis.
    …
    I am also satisfied that Mr Ashby and Ms Doane by about 29 March 2012 were in a combination with Mr Brough to cause Mr Slipper as much political and public damage as they could inflict on him.
    …
    That is why each of Mr Ashby, Ms Doane and Mr Brough were anxious to provide Mr Lewis with the diary entries he sought.]

    No way would they have wasted their time on a backbencher from wopwop.

  18. Could have been worse Puff =- yes, like the dog on the tucker box.

    Yes, it was a pretty sunset in Sydney. After a day of thick overcast, the Sun chose to grace us with its presence right on sunset, with a beautiful double rainbow on the other side of the sky.

    Back to topic, isn’t it amazing how right-wingers are so strong on respect for the majesty of the law unless they encounter a ruling that they don’t like. For them, ‘right thinking people’ are ‘right wing thinking people’. It’s not just judges, Alan Jones insists that the CSIRO is corrupt because it accepts that the Earth is warming because of human-induced changes to the atmosphere.

  19. C@tmomma @5364
    When I read Tony Abbott’s speech on his website I thought you were wrong. When I read it a second time I realised you are right.

    He will talk to the experts and consult with those affected, but work out for himself the pros and cons of a decision. But his last sentence is meaningless, where he says he will take those affected “into his confidence” (ie tell them secretly) before he makes a decision.

    I presume this means he will half make a decision, tell those affected secretly, then make the decision again and announce it. The mind boggles. And this is stuff he has written down, goodness knows what he actually said.

    Tony Abbott:
    The next Coalition government won’t shirk hard decisions but will talk to the experts before decisions are made rather than just argue with them afterwards. As those who worked with me as a minister can attest, my style is to consult with the people that a government decision could impact and to work out for myself what are its real pros and cons. The next Coalition government won’t take an “officials know best” approach to the problems of the nation and won’t make decisions that impact on people’s lives without, as far as is possible, taking them into our confidence first.

    http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/News/tabid/94/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/9016/Address-to-The-Queens-College-Oxford-UK.aspx

  22. fiona@5404


    My maternal grandmama used to declare that it was better to be born lucky than good-looking (she, of course, was both).

    Well, TLBD, CTar1, and Boerwar can attest to the fact that moi is not good-looking.

    Moi can now assert, however, that moi is the luckiest woman in the world.

    So, I was driving out of Holbrook a bit after 10 this morning, crawling behind a truck doing 50kph in an 80kph zone. I knew that there was a divided road ahead, so crawled patiently until the divided road started. I pulled into the right-hand lane, accelerated gently, found a patch of wet road combined with loose gravel and …

    … one not-quite-controlled skid and two complete rolls of the car later I was on the far side of the table drain (I controlled the skid just enough to pass four or five very solid eucalypts).

    The car is a write-off, but apart from a few seatbelt and steering wheel bruises, I am unscathed – not even shaky.

    People flocked from near and far: the ambos, the workmen, the police, and the tow-truck guys all told me I was lucky to be alive.

    Thumbed a ride back to Albury with the tow-truck, and OH drove up to collect me. I even drove the last 50km into Melbourne so my nerves are still fine!

    The towing business was family-owned, and the founding father of it was deputed to look after me until OH turned up – seriously fascinating conversations mostly about trucking but also touching on the nefarious deeds of insurance companies, wharfies, lawyers, and other assorted miscreants.

    People are so kind – and I do know that I am the luckiest woman in the world

    Must confess I was thinking earlier that the Canberra to Melbourne drive was an easy one with no dramas expected. 😯

    I have driven Sydney to Melbourne many times, including when the road was nowhere near as good as it is now.

    Glad to hear you are OK.

  25. Fiona – Glad you and yours are all safe and well.

    Bloody thing – you never know when these things are going to come at you.

    Lottery ticket first thing!

    Best wishes, even though you are all shaken up.

  27. fiona

    dreadful experience for you, so glad you’re ‘shaken not stirred’ (or is that ‘alert but not alarmed’)

    Thankfully that stretch of road is being duplicated fairly soon…thanks be to Albo!

  29. john ‏@sjjohn77
    @JoeHockey @tonyabbottmhr @juliebishopmp don’t know how true that is but seems like this Journo has inside contact. 2/2
    Details
    6h john ‏@sjjohn77
    @JoeHockey @tonyabbottmhr @juliebishopmp if I hear anymore, I will let you know. Heard Joe met Ashby & JB helped more than she says. 1/2
    Details
    6h john ‏@sjjohn77
    @JoeHockey @tonyabbottmhr @juliebishopmp apparently this Journo has let u all hang yourselves through interviews. Journo has good contacts.
    Details
    6h john ‏@sjjohn77
    @JoeHockey @tonyabbottmhr @juliebishopmp Just heard a Journo is almost ready to reveal 4 front bench Liberals who were involved #Ashbygate

  31. c@tmomma……I’m glad you read it. I had admired both of you. Excellent fellow, your man. Please say hello to him from me. Superlatively happy, he was, each morning when we would meet, and very keen to return too, each afternoon. Small wonder, I am bound to declare.

    I hope things have gone well for you. You seem to be in good form around here and, by your reports, putting in your share elsewhere too. That is great to see.

  32. Good point

    [Got to wonder why the MSM went so hard on poor Malcolm on #Utegate & giving Tony a free pass on #Ashbygate. They really hated MT #auspol]

  36. Fiona,
    Wow! Almost as lucky as moi, who had a microsleep accident one day in Mid-Winter driving home from work, after having tacked the shopping on the end of the day, in a warm car with the heater on, then before I knew it I ‘woke up’ driving on the wrong side of the road, over-corrected the car, and went off the other side of the road down into a creek! Wrote the car off, sliced my knee open on the dashboard, and my groceries went to the Smash Repairers with my car, while I went to the hospital. 😀

    I must say though that I am glad you survived the ordeal. The hitching back to Albury that is!

  37. [5408
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    briefly@5394

    5388
    Puff, the Magic Dragon…. a zonked dragon…don’t see that often either.

    Yes, well I might pour myself a glass or two of Muscat I forgot to give someone for their birthday. No point wasting it.]

    Sante, Puff, Sante 🙂

  40. [Good point]

    Tim Dunlop had some interesting insights on this point. He sees OM as creating a positive feedback loop for itself through Abbott’s slogans and comments.

    It has to end.

  44. [5436
    C@tmomma
    Posted Saturday, December 15, 2012 at 10:03 pm | Permalink

    Fiona,
    Wow! Almost as lucky as moi, who had a microsleep accident one day in Mid-Winter driving home from work……]

    If there is such a thing as road-a-phobia, I have it.

  46. Well this may not mean much at all but one person I know who has always voted Liberal is going to sack Abbott and switch to Labor for the next election.

    What has caused the change?
    The person is aware that the Liberals under Abbott have been involved in some form of conspiracy in the Slipper affair.

  49. Everyone,

    Thank you for your kind comments.

    Given the state of Ozlotto, Tuesday 18th has to be mine!

    My Say and Victoria,

    I refuse to be shaken tomorrow – will be too sore!

    C@tmomma,

    Wow – the only item in the car that may be lost is my new map of Canberra (acquired for the purpose of yesterday’s luncheon) – which flipped out of the window and into the damp grass of the table drain, whence it was rescued and returned to the car by the kind tow-truck driver. But I think it can be repaired once dry.

    And the drive back to Albury, and the subsequent “baby-sitting” by his dad, were highly entertaining.

    Anyway, my friends, time for a hot shower, a couple of panadol, and bed. À demain.

  50. We want the truth!

    People CAN handle the truth!

    We want to know the involvement of Pyne, Brandis, Hockey and Abbott in the Ashby v Slipper affair 😡

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