Seat of the week: Brisbane

With the change in the state’s political breeze recently, Labor is hungrily eyeing Queensland as a potential source of seats to counterbalance anticipated losses in Sydney. An inner-city seat with the LNP’s lowest margin represents an obvious target.

The electorate of Brisbane has existed without interruption since federation, and presently covers the north shore of the Brisbane River from Milton through the CBD to Eagle Farm, extending northwards to Stafford at its western end and Hendra in the east. It was the most surprising of the Liberal National Party’s eight gains in Queensland at the 2010 election, as Labor had held the seat since 1931 outside of the interruption of 1975 to 1980, holding on even in the face of the 1996 disaster which reduced Labor to two Queensland seats. The defeated Labor member was Arch Bevis, who had held the seat since 1990 when he succeeded Manfred Cross, whose tenure went back to 1961. Peter Johnson held the seat for the Liberals from 1975 until 1980, when Cross recovered his old seat on the second attempt.

Brisbane’s complexion was changed somewhat by redistributions in 2004 and 2010, the more recent of which cut the margin from 6.8% to 3.8% by adding 26,500 voters at the eastern end of the electorate at the expense of territory out to Ferny Grove and Upper Kedron in the west and Stafford in the north. The former area included Clayfield and its highly affluent surrounds, which have contributed to the electorate’s current status as the highest-income electorate in Queensland. This proved doubly damaging for Labor as the swings around Clayfield were especially strong, in keeping with a national trend in which the air went out of the Howard-era “doctors’ wives” balloon. The effect was to counterbalance a relatively static result in the inner city, contributing to a decisive 5.7% swing to the LNP. The result was also notable for the 21.3% vote for the Greens (compared with a Labor primary vote of 30.4%), whose candidate was former Democrats Senator and party leader Andrew Bartlett.

The LNP victory facilitated a return to parliament for Teresa Gambaro, who had held the northern Brisbane seat of Petrie from 1996 until her defeat in 2007. Gambaro is a member of a family famous in Brisbane for its seafood business, its restaurant being located in the electorate at Petrie Terrace. Nonetheless, Brisbane did not seem an especially strong prospect for her at the time of preselection, which occurred at the peak of the Rudd government’s fortunes in the opinion polls. Gambaro held parliamentary secretary and assistant minister positions in the final term of the Howard government, and has served as shadow parliamentary secretary for international development assistance and citizenship and settlement throughout the current term. She made headlines in January 2012 when she called for migrants to be given hygiene lessons, for which she subsequently apologised.

Labor has preselected Fiona McNamara, an organiser with the Queensland Teachers Union, of which Arch Bevis was also an official before entering parliament. The union is not affiliated with the ALP, but is said to wield influence in the Labor Unity faction. McNamara has been twice unsuccessful as candidate for Peter Dutton’s northern Brisbane seat of Dickson, falling short by 0.1% in 2007 and 5.1% in 2010.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,333 comments on “Seat of the week: Brisbane”

Comments Page 42 of 47
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  2. [The number of new home loans increased modestly in October, due to a rise in finance for buying newly built dwellings.]

    Well der ABC aren’t New Home loans for New Homes? If not they would be called Home Loans.

  4. Dee, it was hard for the Coalition to smear Kim Beazley, for example, though they did of course accuse him of lacking ticker.

    Julia has her own set of unique problems, which began when she backflipped on the carbon tax while having to rely on Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper (one of theirs, to be sure!)against a background of Obeid and co. Dredging up what looks like a fairly minor incident from her past confirms in the minds of many that where there’s smoke there must be fire.

  6. TT

    JG is the current PM and she together with the govt has been governing for over two years. The electorate are living the experience if this govt. what issues do they have with its governance?

  7. [Julia has her own set of unique problems, which began when she backflipped on the carbon tax ]

    Except she didn’t backflip on the carbon tax and only fools and liars say she did.

  8. lol poroti @ 2053

    i would like that to happen next year , where the news ltd hacks are frothing at the mouths claiming Abbott will win the election

    at the end of the night Gillard and labor gets re-elected

  10. Toorak Toff

    Craig Thomson did nothing wrong – all charges will be dropped.

    Peter Slipper did nothing wrong – the Liberal web of lies will be revealed.

    ICAC will find Ministers were corrupted by business leaders, some with Liberal links – nothing new.

    If the Libs think smear will win them office, they are dead wrong, it means they are unfit for office and the sensible electorate will punish them for it.

  12. Meguire Bob

    [i would like that to happen next year , where the news ltd hacks are frothing at the mouths claiming Abbott will win the election]

    If Labor manage to win next year I will take a week off work and listen to 2GB 24/7 . 🙂

  13. Poroti in July 2012 Labor’s primary vote was stuck around 30%, The Coalition in the high 40’s, Abbott was preferred PM and the 2PP was around 56/44 on all the polling. Careful what you wish for 🙂

  14. [ICAC will find Ministers were corrupted by business leaders, some with Liberal links – nothing new.]

    The building in which ICAC is conducted will fall down as a result of the seismic event caused by the uncontrollable laughter that emerges if Eddie, Moses, Ian or others say wtte:

    “I am the victim in all this”.

  15. Andrew
    [Dee, I would say if you look at journalists like Grattan, there is something personal about the PM. Grattan was not so anti Labor when Labor was in opposition, nor when Rudd was PM.]
    Well of course Grattan wasn’t so anti-Labor when they were in opposition.
    It may well be personal for Grattan but don’t ever delude yourself that the media supported or liked Rudd.

  16. Every now and then I get a letter in the local paper pointing out the BISONS. There’s invariably a flood of responses saying my figures are spin, unemployment’s going up, the national debt’s soaring and we’ll all be rooned by this corrupt government.

    Most defenders of the government are deterred by this crap and have gone under a rock to hide.

    A bit of support – perhaps organised by vulnerable MPs – might be a good idea.

  17. david
    my comprehension, is not always good

    so in a nut shell,
    your saying

    what things have improved,,or what

    i know this time last year we where dismal

    but this time this year i am dismal, fear
    id say

  20. my say now Labor is around 36%, the Coalition probably around their level at the last election, JG holds a comfortable PPM lead and the 2PP is around 51 or 52/49 or 48 so a lot can happen in less than 6 months. Labor are in the fight and Poroti may have to suffer his punishment.

  21. shellbell

    I guess ICAC bugged the phones of Leading NSW Business type who have donated to the Liberal Party as a jolly jape in the lets charge Nick Greiner kind?

  23. davidwh

    A week of 2GB after a 2013 Labor win would mean the privilege of witnessing a new Australian unhingement record being set.As long as the pocorn doesn’t run out what’s not to like ? 🙂

  24. [2052
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, December 10, 2012 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

    The number of new home loans increased modestly in October, due to a rise in finance for buying newly built dwellings.

    Well der ABC aren’t New Home loans for New Homes? If not they would be called Home Loans.]

    I think the distinction is between new loans (for homes) and refinancing of existing loans (for homes)….

  26. ruawake

    If I was NSW ALP, I would make the point that there is a bit of cross-party fertlisation going on.

    I think NSW worst living AG, Peter Collins, is still lobbying for some Obeid interest.

  28. Letters to the editor can frame the debate. You would think that MPs, rather than making airy speeches and warming the back benches until being ejected at the next election, would do everything possible to improve their chances by organising letter writers, talkback callers and bloggers at every oppostunity.

  29. DavidWH
    [ Labor are in the fight]
    And as I said to fess last night.
    It’s going to be a fight to the political death.
    Rabbott will do absolutely anything and everything to win.
    No gutter will be too low.
    IMO, It’s going to be a blood bath. I hope it’s Rabbott being mopped off the floor.

  30. [I think the distinction is between new loans (for homes) and refinancing of existing loans (for homes)….]

    Except New Home loans for investors increased at a healthy 5.55% so “…increased modestly in October” is then wrong. Its a dumb headline from a dumber online news service.

  32. You guys are clinging to Newspoll, like it’s your last branch in the flooded stream.
    Funny that there’s zero mention here today of Essential Media(Coalition 54, ALP 46) – doesn’t fit the propoganda mantra of the great warrior against sexism surging to victory in 2013. 😀

  35. TT
    Bob Carr said that MP’s will have to get out and about ‘NOW’ on street corners, door knocking etc to sell the governments achievements.
    He was talking about western Sydney but I think this should be done right across the country.

  38. Thornleigh Labor Man
    Posted Monday, December 10, 2012 at 6:03 pm | Permalink

    Funny that there’s zero mention here today of Essential Media(Coalition 54, ALP 46) –

    —————

    i made a comment you and thomas paine will likely be on here , with that result

  40. If Newspoll tonight is similar to Essential Media – Gillard supporters will resort to the line that Rupert’s rigged the poll to disadvantage Julia. 😉

  44. [Evan Parsons ‏@Butterfield6
    @vanOnselenP: Despite supposed recent Labor resurgence, I still favour Abbott to win next year……and I’m a Labor voter.]

    Evan, how does it feel being a scumbag?

  45. Fran

    [And by way of comparison, I have friends who regularly have neighbours/friends pick up their kids from school. Their policy is to give their kids a security question (via SMS if you please!) to ask anyone who says they are there to pick them up that day.]

    Quite a few have a password that the person picking the kid up has to say.

    The date of birth or middle name check wouldn’t have worked in this case as I assume that Kate Middletons details are all on wiki.

  46. every night recently there has been news item, to do with global warming, surley the penny must drop soon with
    the public that the carbon price is necessary.
    i know the polls say they are ok with it.
    but has it twigged why it was done and the benifits.

  47. [The Australian Labor Party needs to cleanse itself of the evil influence of #JohnMcTernan]

    No it need to wash the vile Parsons away.

  48. my say

    i know not many will agree with me here, but the pressure must still go on the news ltd and other pro coalition media hacks

    i think they deserved to be under more pressure then abbott they are the only ones who is keeping abbott and the coalition in the race

  49. Bruce Wilson, Ralph Blewitt, John McTernan: note the similarities, and Julia Gillard has been associated with all 3 at one time or another in her career.
    What does that say about her ethics & morality?
    And it’s got nothing to do with gender or sexism, which I’ll no doubt be accused of by the likes of Confessions.

  50. Shell bel

    do you think its becauce they maintain a similar
    group of people and go around in circles,

    i know when i got ess, now its in spam,, i was polled
    rather often having never been polled by any one
    except morgan face to face in 2009

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