Seat of the week: Brisbane

With the change in the state’s political breeze recently, Labor is hungrily eyeing Queensland as a potential source of seats to counterbalance anticipated losses in Sydney. An inner-city seat with the LNP’s lowest margin represents an obvious target.

The electorate of Brisbane has existed without interruption since federation, and presently covers the north shore of the Brisbane River from Milton through the CBD to Eagle Farm, extending northwards to Stafford at its western end and Hendra in the east. It was the most surprising of the Liberal National Party’s eight gains in Queensland at the 2010 election, as Labor had held the seat since 1931 outside of the interruption of 1975 to 1980, holding on even in the face of the 1996 disaster which reduced Labor to two Queensland seats. The defeated Labor member was Arch Bevis, who had held the seat since 1990 when he succeeded Manfred Cross, whose tenure went back to 1961. Peter Johnson held the seat for the Liberals from 1975 until 1980, when Cross recovered his old seat on the second attempt.

Brisbane’s complexion was changed somewhat by redistributions in 2004 and 2010, the more recent of which cut the margin from 6.8% to 3.8% by adding 26,500 voters at the eastern end of the electorate at the expense of territory out to Ferny Grove and Upper Kedron in the west and Stafford in the north. The former area included Clayfield and its highly affluent surrounds, which have contributed to the electorate’s current status as the highest-income electorate in Queensland. This proved doubly damaging for Labor as the swings around Clayfield were especially strong, in keeping with a national trend in which the air went out of the Howard-era “doctors’ wives” balloon. The effect was to counterbalance a relatively static result in the inner city, contributing to a decisive 5.7% swing to the LNP. The result was also notable for the 21.3% vote for the Greens (compared with a Labor primary vote of 30.4%), whose candidate was former Democrats Senator and party leader Andrew Bartlett.

The LNP victory facilitated a return to parliament for Teresa Gambaro, who had held the northern Brisbane seat of Petrie from 1996 until her defeat in 2007. Gambaro is a member of a family famous in Brisbane for its seafood business, its restaurant being located in the electorate at Petrie Terrace. Nonetheless, Brisbane did not seem an especially strong prospect for her at the time of preselection, which occurred at the peak of the Rudd government’s fortunes in the opinion polls. Gambaro held parliamentary secretary and assistant minister positions in the final term of the Howard government, and has served as shadow parliamentary secretary for international development assistance and citizenship and settlement throughout the current term. She made headlines in January 2012 when she called for migrants to be given hygiene lessons, for which she subsequently apologised.

Labor has preselected Fiona McNamara, an organiser with the Queensland Teachers Union, of which Arch Bevis was also an official before entering parliament. The union is not affiliated with the ALP, but is said to wield influence in the Labor Unity faction. McNamara has been twice unsuccessful as candidate for Peter Dutton’s northern Brisbane seat of Dickson, falling short by 0.1% in 2007 and 5.1% in 2010.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,333 comments on “Seat of the week: Brisbane”

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  1. Toorak Toff
    [Dee (1951) wonders how to counter Coalition smear campaigns. I guess choosing squeaky clean candidates would be a start.]

    Since when has being squeaky clean been an obstacle for Coalition smears?

  2. OC

    I once asked my doctor a question about my husband’s health – on an issue which directly affected me.

    He said he couldn’t divulge it without my husband’s permission.

  3. david
    when you look at morgan on line

    is it different , regarding the way william
    then does the preferences , am i saying this correctly
    as have little knowledge just memory of what is said from time to time

  4. [Wouldn’t a celebrity be given a “stable name” in the hospital, like Julie Roberts at her hotel in Notting Hill?
    Then only people who ask about the condition of “squishy tampons” would be given information.

    This incident also ignores the question of patient consent for information to be given to relatives – which can not be assumed. I once worked at a hospital where a nurse gave information to a patient’s husband but was they were estranged and the nurse was formally warned for not obtaining consent]
    This post isn’t funny.

    Write things that are funny.

  5. [OC

    I once asked my doctor a question about my husband’s health – on an issue which directly affected me.

    He said he couldn’t divulge it without my husband’s permission.]
    Your husband is actually a woman?

  6. ‘Proof positive that Lib smear with OM fully behind it, actually works

    Yes, it does!
    What do you suggest the ALP do?’

    What they should’ve done in the first place but were to awe struck by the born to rulers audacity or just plain gutless to go after Bishop with a counter bucket of smear and Abbott with a big old 44 gallon drum of the stuff.

    The Libs must laugh themselves to sleep at night thinking about how dumb the Labor machine brainiacs are.

  7. my say

    Going on the published polls the trend is clear. A narrowing for a competitive election.

    Advantage team Coalition with nose in front with a year to go.

    That is all that can be said with certainty

  8. [What they should’ve done in the first place but were to awe struck by the born to rulers audacity or just plain gutless to go after Bishop with a counter bucket of smear and Abbott with a big old 44 gallon drum of the stuff.

    The Libs must laugh themselves to sleep at night thinking about how dumb the Labor machine brainiacs are.]
    In order to win Labor must balance attacking Abbott with explaining all its good policies.

    Voters LIKE Labor’s plans on the NBN, the NDIS, and reforming education. Abbott is running the risk of relying way too much on just saying how bad the government is without putting forward his own agenda for what he would actually do in government.

    The Government should talk less about Abbott and more about all the important things that need to be done to ensure future prosperity.

  9. ‘As I said last week, I cannot see a way through to victory for the PM with OM so steadfastly against her.’

    And ALP strategists so f#cking useless they couldn’t even steal a few low tricks from the tories to save themselves.

  10. [What they should’ve done in the first place but were to awe struck by the born to rulers audacity or just plain gutless to go after Bishop with a counter bucket of smear and Abbott with a big old 44 gallon drum of the stuff.]

    Why bother now? They threw everything they had at the PM and it caused a poll ripple. Revenge is a dish best served cold.

  11. yes guytuar

    that true read me like a book you can,

    it would be so nice to be in fron for christmas

    though

    but gee this time last year, we where saying
    or some where, we can never come back from this

    so should not be worried

    one just gets soso frustrated that any one could vote for abbott and his crew

    considering the things they say they will do
    take away the things labor have in place
    and actully have no polices themselves

    are people really for real

    i think thats what we can not work out

  12. [And ALP strategists so f#cking useless they couldn’t even steal a few low tricks from the tories to save themselves.]
    Labor has done a good job at making Abbott a questionable figure, but it won’t win an election by simply saying how bad Abbott is or would be as PM.

    Labor will win the election by pointing out that it has good policies that should be supported on their own merits, and that Abbott doesn’t have any credible policies.

  13. my say yes Morgan’s does their 2PP on responded allocated preferences rather than those from the last election. I think William shows up what the result would be using the prior election preferences. That’s another reason that makes it hard to use their polling and I am not going to try and trawl through all Williams threads trying to find the results.

    In any case we are only trying to pick up trends so as long as the method is consistent it shouldn’t matter what method for allocation preferences is used.

  14. gee SHOWS ON

    YOU can say great things when you want to

    is that your first ever real dinkum post lot

    well done, makes so much sence and spot on

  15. my say

    Exactly right. Look how admired Bob Brown became by just focussing on his issues and not the smear of which there was plenty, being thrown at him.

    In that way I do see a similarity in strength from PMJG and thus improving numbers on likable PM.

  16. SO

    [Labor has done a good job at making Abbott a questionable figure, but it won’t win an election by simply saying how bad Abbott is or would be as PM.

    Labor will win the election by pointing out that it has good policies that should be supported on their own merits, and that Abbott doesn’t have any credible policies.]

    Agreed.

  17. yes i always like the way bob handled himself
    and the situations at hand never abused any one
    just calm and reflective.
    and often went in to bad for others,
    miss him actually, wish he had stayed till the end of this year.

  18. Labor has done a good job at making Abbott a questionable figure, but it won’t win an election by simply saying how bad Abbott is or would be as PM.

    Labor will win the election by pointing out that it has good policies that should be supported on their own merits, and that Abbott doesn’t have any credible policies.

    S.O.

    If you maintain this quality of posting, you never know, one day you may be quoted in Hansard…

  19. do you know that is the first time i have seen
    shows on post a post that was not meant to be funny

    the court jester is really some one with depth
    thank you shows on

  20. well i still wonder about the
    fact they every one polled has to ring up ask for a form and say i want to be polled

    i did that remember, but after many polls and many
    quetions that where not political just about stuff
    then a polical quesion here and there

    i have decided to delete them cannot be bothered
    takes to long

  21. Diogenes

    [Perhaps Dons idea of the caller knowing the patients date of birth might be a good compromise.]

    I think so, or perhaps on admission, a security question might be recorded for the patient.

  22. Galaxy and Essential are now in accord with each other. I admit I was out by a week in anticipating a LNP PV of 48.
    Looking forward to August 2013!

  23. rosemore@2014
    Agree with you but the problem is ‘the bucket of smear’ from Labor will always be reported as Labor bullying poor sensitive tone and the LNP. who only want to talk policy, in the same way that none of the Labor positive stuff is reported without the negative opinion added.
    Someone has already pointed out that the Om is steadfastly against PMJG . Therin lies the problem not messaging etc.
    The message is not getting through because it is not being reported except for social media , but unfortuneately not enough on its own.

  24. the way both my girls have arrived at a hospital in the

    last year a password or a security question

    would be the last thing on their mind.

  25. [Does anyone really think Essential’s Green vote at 8% is credible?]

    No!

    Essential has obviously rounded up to the nearest whole number. The Greens would be closer to 7% than 8%.

    By the time of the election, they’ll be around 6% and will record closer to 5% on polling day. 🙂

  26. stanny i dont usually respond

    but well if that happens

    enjoy less pension,,may be no medicare

    no HECS. may be even NO PBS

    enjoy

    i would love to see lib voters denied all the stuff
    labor have bought in over the years

    then you may have a realisation of what life would be like
    re abbott

  27. And by way of comparison, I have friends who regularly have neighbours/friends pick up their kids from school. Their policy is to give their kids a security question (via SMS if you please!) to ask anyone who says they are there to pick them up that day.

  28. Arunta
    [Someone has already pointed out that the Om is steadfastly against PMJG . Therin lies the problem not messaging etc.]
    They are steadfastly against the ALP.

  29. Stanny should look at the Latham experiment.

    COALITION LABOR

    Newspoll 16-18 January 2004 50 50
    Newspoll 6-8 February 2004 47 53
    Newspoll 20-22 February 2004 50 50
    Newspoll 5-7 March 2004 45 55
    Newspoll 19-21 March 2004 45 55
    Newspoll 2-4 April 2004 47 53
    Newspoll 16-18 April 2004 47 53
    Newspoll 30 Apr – 2 May 2004 48 52
    Newspoll 14-16 May 2004 46 54
    Newspoll 28-30 May 2004 53 47
    Newspoll 18-20 June 2004 48 52
    Newspoll 2-4 July 2004 49 51
    Newspoll 16-18 July 2004 49 51
    Newspoll 30 Jul – 1 Aug 2004 50 50
    Newspoll 13-15 August 2004 46 54
    Newspoll 27-29 August 2004 48 52
    Newspoll 3-5 September 2004 50 50
    Newspoll 10-12 September 2004 50 50
    Newspoll 17-19 September 2004 47.5 52.5
    Newspoll 24-26 September 2004 48 52
    Newspoll 1-3 October 2004 50.5 49.5
    Newspoll 6-7 October 2004 50 50
    Election 9 October 2004 52.8 47.2

    Howard was in front in the years newspolls twice. Once after the budget the other 6 days before the election.

  30. Shows On, Labor has been pointing out their achievements for years, just watch any interview or presser. It simply does not get reported.

  31. ruawake

    [Why would you want a Liberal Govt? ]

    Stanny rouly believes that interest rates will always be lower … or some bullshit like ‘look, just…

  32. Dee, I would say if you look at journalists like Grattan, there is something personal about the PM. Grattan was not so anti Labor when Labor was in opposition, nor when Rudd was PM.

  33. Unfortunately for stanny , there will be no election in august 2013

    so he has to rely on the hypothetical opinion polling again

    who have the dismissal record of picking a winner once in every 12 years

  34. [Stanny rouly believes that interest rates will always be lower … or some bullshit like ‘look, just…]

    Yep this is why the Libs will lose, they have nothing to offer.

    The slogans make sense if people feel them in the services they get from Govt.

    The Libs will be trying to run an election campaign based on two opposite messages, cutting spending and increasing services. Something has to burst.

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