GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has plugged a hole in the Newspoll and Nielsen schedules with a federal poll conducted from 1015 respondents on Wednesday and Thursday (UPDATE: Make that Thursday and Friday – The Management). The result is at the low end of Labor’s recent form, with the Coalition leading 48% to 34% on the primary vote and 54-46 on two-party preferred, compared with 47% to 35% and 53-47 in the Galaxy poll of a month ago. The Greens vote is steady on 11%.
Galaxy also grapples with the AWU matter, with what to my mind are problematic results. Poll questions are most effective when gauging basic affective responses, namely positive or negative feelings towards a person or thing, and mutually exclusive choices, such as preferences out of political parties or election candidates. On this score, the best question to emerge so far has been Morgan’s effort on approval or disapproval of the Prime Minister’s handling of the controversy. Difficulties emerge where the range of potential opinions is open-ended, as too much depends on the choices offered by the pollster.
A case in point is Galaxy’s question on whether Gillard had “lied” (31%), been “open and honest” (21%) or, as a middle course, been “economical with the truth” (31%). Particularly where complex or half-understood issues are involved, choices like this are known to activate the strategy of “satisficing” (“choosing the easiest response because it requires less thinking”, according one of the pithier definitions available). This results in a bias towards intermediate responses, in this case the “economical with the truth” option.
I have similar doubts about Galaxy’s question as to whether respondents believed Gillard “should provide a full account of her involvement through a statement in parliament”, an over-elaborate proposition that feels tailored towards eliciting a positive response. Sixty per cent of respondents duly gave it one, although it is clear the thought would have occurred to few of them before being put to them by the interviewer. Only 26% offered that such a statement was unnecessary, with 14% undecided.
Then there is the finding that 26% of respondents said the issue had made them less likely to vote Labor. Like any such question, this would have attracted many positive responses from those whose pre-existing chance of voting Labor was zero. However, the question at least allows us to compare the results to those of similarly framed questions in the past. In July, a Galaxy poll found that 33% were less likely to vote Labor because of the budget. In January, 39% of respondents to a Westpoll survey said power price hikes had made them less likely to vote for the Barnett government. In July of last year, The Australian reported polling by UMR Research (commissioned, it must be noted, by Clubs Australia) had 23% of voters less likely to vote Labor due to mandatory pre-commitment for poker machines. And a month after Kevin Rudd was deposed as Prime Minister in June 2010, Nielsen found the proportion saying they were less likely to vote Labor as a result was similar to today’s finding: 25%.
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes reports News Limited has published a further result from the Galaxy poll, a four-way preferred prime minister question which has Kevin Rudd on 27%, Malcolm Turnbull on 23%, Julia Gillard on 18% and Tony Abbott on 17%.
[1489
Diogenes
Posted Monday, December 3, 2012 at 1:18 pm | PERMALINK
Our unemployment rate was 4.2% early in Rudd’s time. Has the “definition” of full employment changed since then?]
A lot of definitions have changed under Gillard.
Just a few of the top of my head.
1. Misogyny
2. Surplus
3. Successfull refugee policy
4. And now full time employment.
zoomster@1484
Oh, sorry. I got a word wrong. 😀
guytaur@1457,
No one wants to live on welfare. Not even disabled people.
Yes I do! I end up in too much pain to cope with if I work at my profession anymore. Not much good for anything else either. 🙁 Except caring for and loving my kids. 🙂
Dio from memory unemployment bottomed-out at 3.9% just before the GFC hit. At the time while inflation was a touch hight it wasn’t serious. However we aren’t going to achieve 2% without some real structural changes in our economy and it is likely not achievable.
Mehe Baba
Some sense amongst all the nostalgia.
The only thing I can add is you said that people on sit down money could be upskilled – this implies both a motivation and abilityon their part. Many don’t have the ability but some got into this situation because they lacked the motivation or example.
[Toolman doing 7.30 over summer (I only consider watching it if Tracy Bowden does it) – you can bet he will be focusing on AS or Labor “scandals” for the next 2 months, or maybe engage in a few pornographic acts with Abbott and Pell live on air. Definitely to be avoided.]
“Pornographic”… I hadn’t considered Slatergate as a “sex scandal” until Elder put it that way.
Of course, he’s right.
So now we have Thomson, Slipper and Slatergate as “sex scandals”.
Significant, I think.
BB
[5. (There is no (5))]
Five is that it would give the Coalition a face saving way to drop the issue.
Gillard was heckled at the launch of the National Disability Services
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/disabled-woman-interrupts-pm-20121203-2apwc.html
Hecklers points are
1. vision impaired get un-means tested Disability pension since 1948
2. disability pension is too low to provide for her needs, appliances and aids cost money
3. heckler can’t work full-time [too sick]
4. a person on Disability pension would need to work for 27 hours a week to match minimum wage
5. Aged pensioners can earn more before pension cuts apply
Gillard allocated “Robyn” to talk to heckler
Good on heckler for her protest
The DT article cites a small group of refugees saying (literally) pro-Abbott things on cue.
I can’t see why Psephos would spend so much time defending a useless rag like that, but it does say a lot about the moral decay that’s seeped into some parts of the Labor party, if they are prepared to defend that Murdoch rag, on any matter.
BB
[Our house insurance has gone from $750 three years ago to $1700 this year ]
How can they justify that rise? Have all other insurers also increased by that amount?
c@tmomma
[You could start the ‘kinder, gentler policy Poll Bludger polity’ Fran by junking the sneering and snide put-downs of those with a different point of view to yours.]
I’ve been here long enough to evaluate your posting pattern. You are amongst the chief offenders in the sneering and snide put down of those with whom you disagree category.
[the oft-made,slimily suggestive sentiment, that some people are only using particular empathetic arguments, wrt asylum seekers in particular, as an artifice to simply embroider their point of view with a seeming concern for these people, when actually it is simply to disguise their heartlessness.]
What if the implication turns out to be true? “Heartlessness” comes in many forms. Sometiems there’s express malice, but often it is just avertaing the eyes when something inconvenient moves into view. Your concern (and that of amny others here) lies principally with the vicissitudes attending ALP rule. Right now, asylum seekers as an issue plays badly for the ALP and so those who think that ALP rule is about as good as it can get are willing to make any claim that in their view seems to predispose that result.
It might well be that privately, you feel troubled by what you and your tribe are doing, but right now that’s the cost of doing business, and so you have little alternative but to embrace the dark side and whatver resources it offers. Whether that’s heartless or simply ethically bankrupt seems a moot point.
[Then, engage in debate based upon the facts of the argument, from all perspectives.]
I have given the argument from a number of perspectives, but you haven’t chosen to listen.
[Give an expansive, thoughtful and considered reply. Not a virtual verbal bird. That convinces no one. Does your cause no good. And just gets their virtual backs up.]
Since you don’t respect The Greens or social justice more generally, I can’t imagine why you would propose things that in your view would do “my cause” good. This is simply disingenous, like most else you say to those you despise.
You are an ALP tribalist. You don’t respect those outside the tribe, so there’s simply nothing I could do to earn your respect. As it goes, I’m not seeking it, don’t need it and would be somewhat troubled if I got it accidentally. I am not supposed to be respected by those on the right of social policy.
[BB
5. (There is no (5))
Five is that it would give the Coalition a face saving way to drop the issue.]
I wouldn’t think Gillard is particularly enamoured of keeping Slatergate running.
Fran Barlow,
After posting for over 3 years on PB, I have gone back to lurking on and off but thought I would make this post.
You really are getting the ‘full treatment’ from the more tribal Laborites. Nothing upsets its members more than if you remain calm, rational and dispassionate in the face of their personal attacks.
Your rational and civil posts are in stark contrast to the increasingly hysterical and strident tone of those who seek to silence your views with over the top emotive rhetoric.
You have shown that you are more than capable of ‘pushing back’ and I hope that you continue to contribute to PB 🙂
bemused
right. So the article was unfair on Shorten and the present government. Entirely my point.
Diog
no, the definition of full employment hasn’t changed, as Gittins made clear – it’s been the same since the ’70s.
Oakeshott Country@1487
OC, modern manufacturing is very high tech with a quite low labour content. Germany for example, competes well with high wages. How do they do it? Why can’t we?
I think we can, but it takes the will to do so.
Some people are only capable of quite menial work and are happy doing it for the social environment of work. They should not be demeaned.
rummel
[Just a few of the top of my head.]
It’s the head that tried to restart the truck.
Other features:
•Five layered insulated curtains with radiant barrier and layers of fabric used in snow jackets
•Double glazed windows featuring built in double compressive gaskets to minimise air infiltration
•Sky lights and LED lighting throughout
•Solar hot water and heating system
•A “vegepod” for growing herbs and vegetables
•Grey water system
•Separate off peak meter and power point for charging an electric car
Exactly the sort of house my OH and I had plans to construct out of the house in Highgate, Perth we were renovating in the late 70s/early 80s.
Except for the Electric Car. Which we would no doubt have added later. 😉
That is, until ‘The Recession We had to Have’ took it away from us when I couldn’t afford the 23% Interest Rate repayments on my Business Loan in a stalled economy. 😡
catmomma
That is not wanting to be on welfare. That is accepting you must be on welfare as that is best for you individually.
We were early AMOLED adopters too. 🙂
Hi Pegasus
I used to enjoy following some of your links. Now I tend to find similar ones on Twitter.
No, bemused, you didn’t get ‘a word’ wrong. You said I hadn’t done something which I clearly had.
What’s more, you said it having just cut and paste the post where I made it clear I had.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/12/03/essential-gillard-comes-out-ahead-on-awu/
[Essential: Gillard comes out ahead on AWU
BERNARD KEANE | DEC 03, 2012 1:00PM
Voters are indifferent to the AWU scandal, but still think the Prime Minister is too soft on asylum seekers.]
Dee & Victoria,
Margo went on to say in the same comment that I posted earlier, and in the following one:
[I left journalism because the Sydney Morning Herald would not support Webdiary in a phase of its rapid expansion, and I was overwhelmed with work. You would have to ask them why they withdrew their support. It was a stupid decision, logically. I went independent with help from Webdiarists to try to save the site, but my back (and bank balance) went and I had to retire.
Re the mainstream media, its been corroding for years and years. i didn’t see it clearly because i had the honour of writing for and editing Webdiary, thus genuinely collaborating with and publishing the work of readers.I felt the SMH should bring the readers in to our space, and that this would preserve the old business as well as embracing the new one. I didn’t see Webdiary as ‘a blog’ but as part of the paper. My approach was right, as it turned out, but even by the time I retired, in 2005, my colleagues thought I’d marginalised myself online.
]
From all that Margo has told me, and others, over the years, her “negotiated” departure from Fairfax had to do with her desire – patron saints of deadwood media forbid – to encourage her readers to become citizen journalists. So the management gave her only minimal support with respect to technology and, as I understand it, zero support moderating Webdiary.
So no, not her temerity in pursuing “Australians for Honest Politics”.
Lizzie @ 1465
Fredex @ 1430
Andrew Elder is referring to the Mark Baker front page headline in The Age or SMH on Thursday that contained 3 factual errors, things like
1. Gillard set up slush fund
2. Gillard operated bank account
3. Gillard profited from slush fund
The paper was forced to correct these errors in the online edition.
Outside Parliament Tony Abbott said that the Prime Minister engaged in illegal activity and ought to resign, hence the Prime Minister moved to suspend standing orders so that Abbott could present material to support his allegations, ie speak up or shut up
Psephos
Not opinion. The things I have said are the opinions of experts. Precisely why Mr Bowen has followed their advice.
Thus I do not believe the Daily Telegraph flying in the facts of knowledge known from everywhere else.
Zoomster.
On welfare or off welfare AS want to come to Australia.
The deterrence factor I do not believe. However my point remains about this DT article. I who support AS policy as outlined by the Greens think the DT is full of it.
Peace deal in Tasmania Forests a major step closer.
Fantastic. 🙂
On some ‘border protection’ programme I saw originating in the UK, apparently there are over 1 million illegal immigrants somewhere in the UK at any one time.
The figure for Oz is 50,000. It is highly likely that most have come via air, with visas, and over-stayed.
In the UK they come in by all ways, including ‘boats’ in that these souls are in trucks being ferried across the channel. They are waiting in places like Calais for the opportunity.
Now, given there has been a conservative government in the UK for two years or so now, you would think the problem would be “solved” by now – just as Abbott is pretending the problem of unwanted arrivals can be solved by him.
The 30% or so who think the PM is not “hard enough” are indeed those who will not vote for her or Labor in any event.
These are the one in three people I am loath to admit are my mainly, racist, fellow citizens.
And as far as being struck with amazement that someone would suggest “shooting on the beach” would be a way to ‘fix’ the problem, I have heard this suggested more than once on feral red neck radio with barely any kind of placing response from the so-called host.
Interestingly, however, is that fact that a boat arrival barely gets a mention in any press these days. The OM have figured this, in itself, is no longer news.
[How can they justify that rise? Have all other insurers also increased by that amount?]
They don’t have to justify it.
The price is the price.
However, several old hands in the call centres have told me it’s mostly due to Queensland.
I demanded a re-work of our policy. We went through the tick boxes, and it came out that we SHOULD be paying $2200, not $1700. The lady (very kindly) agreed not to hit the “SUBMIT” button, so the new estimate remained “unofficial”.
If it had been recorded, they’d have had to charge me the higher amount.
I was outraged at this so went to that company who charges special rates for “over 50s”.
Their quote was $2400.
So I stayed with AAMI, even managed a slight discount in exchange for an increased excess limit (on theft, from $0 to $500), then spread it over 12 months (automatic debit), to get it down to $133 per month, which is much more comfortable for us.
In November/December we have:
* Car insurance and registration
* Car Repairs/tyres, if required.
* Electricity
* Gas
* Water
* Council Rates
* Credit card renewals
* Mortgage fees
as well as the “usual suspects” like phone and internet. Last year we added $3,000 in vet bills and a $2000 medical procedure for my wife.
It came to over $12,000 in bills for just one month, plus mortgage and Christmas presents, plus lack of business due to the season (in my case) and work (for my wife who was “temping” at the time).
Last year was terrible. It scarred me deeply and financially. I’m trying to manage this year more sensibly.
Thanks Fiona. Appreciate the feedback. It seems that Margo was ahead of her time. 🙂
[I can’t see why Psephos would spend so much time defending a useless rag like that, but it does say a lot about the moral decay that’s seeped into some parts of the Labor party, if they are prepared to defend that Murdoch rag, on any matter.]
I’m not defending the DT, I’m asking for EVIDENCE (remember evidence?) that the DT fabricated this story. Do you seriously doubt that people in Indonesia waiting to pay their $10k to be taken to Australian waters are pleased to learn that they will after all get to the Australian mainland and be given various benefits, rather than parked indefinitely on Nauru, as previously announced? Of course they’re pleased, as are the boat operators. Besides which, any minister stupid enough to have made this decision deserves all the monsterings he gets in the DT.
Fran Barlow I am not sure if your comments are good or not as the comments are just too long and I usually end up scrolling through, perhaps become more concise???
zoomster@1520
You seem to think there is a hard and fast number of 5% that economists agree on is full employment.
There isn’t.
BB@1508
[ I can’t see why Psephos would spend so much time defending a useless rag like that, but it does say a lot about the moral decay that’s seeped into some parts of the Labor party, if they are prepared to defend that Murdoch rag, on any matter. ]
Can’t comment on the DT story, since that would require reading the DT – which I simply can’t bring myself to do. However you seem to be implying that Psephos is a member of the Labor party. Dawkins save us all if this is true! – between Psephos and Bemused, no wonder so many posters here still confidently predict a Noalition victory 🙂
Hi lizzie,
Thanks 🙂
PB is a hostile environment for anyone who dares to persist in sharing dissenting views, facts and information.
I am ‘over it’ and prefer to expend my time and energy in the real world campaigning for a better world.
But then again, 2013 is an election year and I might change my mind 😀
From Andrew Elder’s piece linked earlier. Climate change anyone ?
[The Australian media frames political debates as though the government and opposition were equally valid and perfectly balanced, with the mainstream media holding the fulcrum and weighing the balance.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-12-03/rough-passage-ahead-for-forest-peace-bill/4403770?section=tas
[Last forestry peace deal party signs on
Updated 10 minutes ago
Timber Communities Australia has backed the historic Tasmanian forest peace agreement.
The TCA’s chairman Trevor Richardson says a majority of the board voted to support the deal to cut the native forestry industry and to protect another half a million hectares of trees from logging.]
Psephos
What you just said is NOT what the Tele reported.
That is AS wanting to come to Australia.
The welfare part is irrelevant to that except it is not working as a deterrent.
That is not wanting to be on welfare as reported.
Jackol if you are around.
I apologise if I upset you, but as you observed, I had no idea of your circumstances. I don’t enjoy ideal circumstances myself.
[Dr Trevor Crook @margokingston1 @AusElectoralCom Margo I think it would be good to collate a list of qs Abbott must answer and a list the AEC must answer]
Pegasus
[But then again, 2013 is an election year and I might change my mind 😆 ]
That being so perhaps you should be doing a few warm ups and training runs now ? 🙂
Player One@1532
Psephos and I are both ALP members.
We sometimes agree and sometimes disagree.
That’s the Labor way. 😀
Bemused
Might just have something to do with the size of the domestic market and quality of product.
Germany’s automobile industry in particular -a high quality product produced in bulk by well trained technicians. As far ad I know guiestarbiter are not allowed anywhere near the German car manufacturers
Cars made in Australia, with few exceptions, don’t attract the interest of foreign markets and the industry just hangs on producing a small number of cars with tarrifs and government support. The result is that cars in Australia are grossly overpriced.
We can go back to that but I think the vast majority of Australian workers would be disappointed.
[rummel
Posted Monday, December 3, 2012 at 1:22 pm | PERMALINK
1489
Diogenes
Posted Monday, December 3, 2012 at 1:18 pm | PERMALINK
Our unemployment rate was 4.2% early in Rudd’s time. Has the “definition” of full employment changed since then?
A lot of definitions have changed under Gillard.
Just a few of the top of my head.
1. Misogyny
2. Surplus
3. Successfull refugee policy
4. And now full time employment]
Glad to see you back today, guess you have been to see Mike Kelly, offering your services to help him like you offered to do last night, to stop the”father” of Workchoices getting in as MP for your electorate :devil:
Pegasus@1533
Stick around Pegasus.
You are at least a relief from that infantile idiot finigans. 👿
Canberra Summer:
The very prolific brown butterflies are chasing each other around.
And some chasers are being successful it appears.
Interesting perspective from Andrew Elder. He reckons the key is to get Pauline Hanson fired up
[@zackster @geeksrulz @margokingston1 That’s the key to this issue: get PH fired up and it will get a lot more legs than if just more JG-TA]
CTar1
Translation?
http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/12/03/kroger-defo-case-revives-stories-of-abbotts-uni-past/
[Kroger defo case revives stories of Abbott’s uni past
MARGOT SAVILLE | DEC 03, 2012 1:00PM
Back when Barbara Ramjan told the media that Tony Abbott punched the wall next to her head in 1977, key Liberal figure Michael Kroger accused her of lying. Ramjan’s now suing Kroger for defamation.
………..
Ramjan has assembled a stellar legal team to run the case, instructing Patrick George from Kennedys solicitors, who has briefed Matthew Richardson and the leading defamation silk in the country, Bruce McClintock.
There are two separate actions against Kroger and The Oz, although it was indicated in court this morning the matters will be run concurrently.
………….
The case, of course, does not involve deciding whether or not the alleged incident took place, but whether Kroger has defamed Ramjan by describing her as a serial liar. The case could run into next year, prompting another round of headlines in an election year about what Abbott did or didn’t do to a woman in 1977.]
Victoria @ 1546,
Birds, bees – and, it would seem, butterflies 😉
Oakeshott Country@1541
You partly nailed it.
They go for quality and compete even in footware. I watched a good doco on TV which went into it a bit.
Australia can produce good cars. I have a Holden Vectra that is an excellent example. It is light years ahead of earlier Holdens I have owned. Yes, designed in Germany, but built here and the build quality is excellent.
The GMH engine plant exports all over the world.
We can do it.