GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has plugged a hole in the Newspoll and Nielsen schedules with a federal poll conducted from 1015 respondents on Wednesday and Thursday (UPDATE: Make that Thursday and Friday – The Management). The result is at the low end of Labor’s recent form, with the Coalition leading 48% to 34% on the primary vote and 54-46 on two-party preferred, compared with 47% to 35% and 53-47 in the Galaxy poll of a month ago. The Greens vote is steady on 11%.
Galaxy also grapples with the AWU matter, with what to my mind are problematic results. Poll questions are most effective when gauging basic affective responses, namely positive or negative feelings towards a person or thing, and mutually exclusive choices, such as preferences out of political parties or election candidates. On this score, the best question to emerge so far has been Morgan’s effort on approval or disapproval of the Prime Minister’s handling of the controversy. Difficulties emerge where the range of potential opinions is open-ended, as too much depends on the choices offered by the pollster.
A case in point is Galaxy’s question on whether Gillard had “lied” (31%), been “open and honest” (21%) or, as a middle course, been “economical with the truth” (31%). Particularly where complex or half-understood issues are involved, choices like this are known to activate the strategy of “satisficing” (“choosing the easiest response because it requires less thinking”, according one of the pithier definitions available). This results in a bias towards intermediate responses, in this case the “economical with the truth” option.
I have similar doubts about Galaxy’s question as to whether respondents believed Gillard “should provide a full account of her involvement through a statement in parliament”, an over-elaborate proposition that feels tailored towards eliciting a positive response. Sixty per cent of respondents duly gave it one, although it is clear the thought would have occurred to few of them before being put to them by the interviewer. Only 26% offered that such a statement was unnecessary, with 14% undecided.
Then there is the finding that 26% of respondents said the issue had made them less likely to vote Labor. Like any such question, this would have attracted many positive responses from those whose pre-existing chance of voting Labor was zero. However, the question at least allows us to compare the results to those of similarly framed questions in the past. In July, a Galaxy poll found that 33% were less likely to vote Labor because of the budget. In January, 39% of respondents to a Westpoll survey said power price hikes had made them less likely to vote for the Barnett government. In July of last year, The Australian reported polling by UMR Research (commissioned, it must be noted, by Clubs Australia) had 23% of voters less likely to vote Labor due to mandatory pre-commitment for poker machines. And a month after Kevin Rudd was deposed as Prime Minister in June 2010, Nielsen found the proportion saying they were less likely to vote Labor as a result was similar to today’s finding: 25%.
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes reports News Limited has published a further result from the Galaxy poll, a four-way preferred prime minister question which has Kevin Rudd on 27%, Malcolm Turnbull on 23%, Julia Gillard on 18% and Tony Abbott on 17%.
zoomster@1373
What rubbish!
Who is suggesting people paint rocks apart from you?
The problem is that Labor has not been brave enough to confront the Liberal neo-CON crap that has become seen as conventional wisdom.
As billie shows, there are plenty of useful and productive jobs for the low skilled that have just been abolished.
Fran Barlow@1386,
ROFLMAO 🙂
Oh, and if you think that Poll Bludger simply exists to catch what drops from the orifices of the ALP, why soil yourself with it?
lizzie
[I thought the GST discussion also referred to the idea of making GST relate to all the existing eliminated items such as raw food. Someone said that the GST-exempt items had risen in cost more than those affected by GST.]
One of the major problems is that more of the economy has moved into the education and health care sectors which are effectively outside the GST. It’s a bit ironic, because one of the major reasons for implementing the GST was to address the movement in the economy away from goods (which were caught by the Sales Tax) and into services.
32% of people think the PM is too soft on UA’s 🙁
My God perhaps we should just shoot them. No, we should just hang our heads in shame.
“@andrewcdodd: @Wendy_Bacon says the dichotomy in coverage in post Finkelstein debate between ‘state regulators’ and ‘free speech’ is misleading #jeaa2012”
davidwh
That 32% is the Abbott/Morrison base
David, I suspect there is an element of our population who would happily have all asylum seekers shot.
ajm
Put GST on goods? We’ll buy overseas.
Funny how people always come up with their own solutions which negate the economic manipulations of govt. 😀
Jackol@1398
Nice to know we have so much in common. Probably more than you think!
guytaur’s helpful link to the upcoming High Court case of Maloney v Queen (11 December 2012) is fleshed out here with a summary of the issue and the contributions of various interested parties.
http://www.hcourt.gov.au/cases/case_b57-2012
At issue is the validity of a Qld law controlling alcohol use on Palm Island. Mr Maloney was convicted under that law but says it offends the Racial Discrimination Act – a Cth law.
The Cth, SA and WA have all put in submissions saying the law is valid.
Jackol,
Good Luck with getting bemused to go away! 🙂
BB cited c@tmomma:
[As it has been said elsewhere, I hope Fran Barlow doesn’t destroy Poll Bludger the way she did Larvatus Prodeo.
then continued
]
I recall you asserting this (or perhaps you were affirming someone else saying it) a while back. It’s a bizarre claim. I wasn’t part of the LP Collective, and maintained good relations with pretty much everyone there, including even with most of those there on the right. They set the rules and I followed them. People from LP follow me on twitter and none of them has ever taken a swing.
Running blogs with significant traffic is a demanding thing if you participate actively and generate new content. It is not well remunerated and all of us have lives to run. It was sad that LP fell by the wayside, but nothing whatever to do with my presence there. The LP folks could have asked me to leave, and I would have. They could have rewritten the rules and I’d have observed them or left. They didn’t. If William thinks I risk wrecking this blog, he can do either of these things and I will comply.
I mean nobody here any harm. I’m interested in public policy and occasionally, cricket. If I can come here and banter about these things in a relatively civil atmosphere, it works for me.
Once we accepted that labour was a product bought and sold in a market, we accepted there had to be stock on the shelf unused and unlikely to be sold. The buyer demands it. Business insists. That is one reason for the dole.
OC
[I really can’t see the problem with the DT story. The reporter found some people happy to game the system – who didn’t know that was happening?]
The messaging!
PM Gillard is weak on border security and will allow exploitation of welfare, Aussie taxpayers and our goodwill.
LOTO Rabbott is strong, is feared by AS ‘cheats’ and will stop the exploitation of Aussie taxpayers, welfare and our goodwill.
bemused and billie
I’m not arguing that these jobs can’t be restored.
What I’m talking about is the definition of ‘full employment’.
The experts say, in our current economy, that that’s 5%.
I get back to the article I was critiquing: to argue that the current Labor government is betraying its values because it’s not accepting a definition of full employment used in 1970 (in which case, why isn’t the article also criticising Hawke and Keating?) and is, instead, using a definition of full employment which is currently accepted by all the major economists (none of you have disputed this; even Gittins fails to identify anyone who disagrees) is unfair and unwarranted.
That’s a separate argument from whether you or I personally think that 5% is too high a figure.
It’s interesting that I have continually referred to the role of State governments in this, and that billie’s one example of employment creation comes from a state governemnt field (I can add to that list; Parks and Gardens is woefully understaffed compared to the 1970s), but neither of you wants to apportion any blame to them.
Singling out the present Federal government for criticism, ignoring that all governments back to the ’70s have run exactly the same policy – regardless of their political persuasion – seems a little hypocritical to me.
[hris murphy @chrismurphys
Supreme Court: Matter of Ramjan v Kroger has been adjourned for Hearing on Wednesday at 9.30am at the request of the defence. #auspol
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite
1h Authentic Observer @BarossaObserver
@chrismurphys stalling tactic?
Expand
1h chris murphy @chrismurphys
@BarossaObserver Mmm, i’d settle.]
Wednesday now What is the bet it will be settled so not to cause TA any problems
c@tmomma:
[Oh, and if you think that Poll Bludger simply exists to catch what drops from the orifices of the ALP, why soil yourself with it?]
Ah, so you do understand the concept of strawman?
😉
Newsflash ! ! !
Poll Bludgers lurking here on a Monday morning are not in full time paid employment – for what ever reason. Probably like me because they really have no choice.
So why don’t we be kind to each other respectful of each others egos. That means you especially Bemused!
C@tmomma@1410
Relax, I am not going. I know how much you would miss me. 😛
I have seen a few good blogs implode and it was always caused by a failure of proper and unbiased moderation. Can’t see that happening to PB, William is very quick to clamp down when things get out of hand and he isn’t biased in applying his standards.
Australia has today joined Mexico and Russia on the G20 “troika”
Mexico – Russia – Australia
That sounds like an ‘Axis’. Not an axis of evil of course. But an axis of what?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axis_of_evil#Other_axes
By sheer coincidence, I saw this on Twitter recently:
[“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.” – Mark Twain]
Some here might consider that.
C@tmomma
Wow, what stunning hypocrisy and projection.
I’m sorry, but when did William’s blog become an ALP ideas clearing house?
The problem with your “conversation” with Fran is that she is entirely logical and accurate, to the point of pedantry (sometimes) in her statements, whereas your inputs are most often illogical, unsupported and / or contradictory fluff and bluster. And she calls you out for it … every time.
So you attack not what she expresses, but how she expresses it.
DR
zoomster
[It’s interesting that I have continually referred to the role of State governments in this, and that billie’s one example of employment creation comes from a state governemnt field]
Good point re state governments. They used to play a huge part in training apprentices in a wide range of areas.
1402
I think that domestic private primary and secondary education as well as cosmetic surgery and private medical treatment for which there is a Medicare option, should not be GST exempt.
(Just practising with my new tablet thing.) Gittins wrote in 1995 that demographic change alone would bring unemployment down to 5prcent by2005 so what we now is no real progress over the situation in 1995. We can argue over methods and means but 5percent cannot be accepted as normal unemployment. If the Govt accepts 5 pc then there ins no point having a government.
[Deb @harrypusspuss
Listening to a convo with retirees discussing how to scam Centrelink. Saying why shouldn’t they! If Refugees get welfare why can’t they?WTF? ]
zoomster@1414
zoomster, you will improve your understanding if you read the previously linked article by Ross Gittins. http://www.theage.com.au/business/few-good-reasons-why-5-unemployment-is-considered-full-employment-20100709-1047v.html
Then you will see that your reliance on experts is just being simplistic and misleading.
So, coming back after a couple of hours in the RW. Where were we?
Guytaur wrote:
[On today’s Daily Telegraph. An article that if Alan Jones tried to broadcast it would be stopped by his fact checker. Media Regulation now!]
I asked Guytaur what factual errors there were in the DT story. He was unable to identify any. And as far as I can see, having read the SMH’s account of Bowen’s announcement, the DT story is factually accurate, although of course written in a way that maximises its impact on DT readers. The government, having finally bitten the bullet on offshore detention at the time of Houston, is now backtracking, and thus losing any political advantage it may have gained. But more important is Guytuar’s call for “media regulation” because he doesn’t like the DT’s tone. This kind of reflexive attack on the press is of course the reason why, no matter how bad the press gets, calls for “media regulation” are so strongly resisted, and so they should be.
DR
[then why do you keep responding to her?]
It’s the amount of scrolling effort to p$ss off her silly dreams that makes me respond very infrequently.
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/
Today’s offering from Andrew Elder at “Politically Homeless” is a must read.
[I’m sorry, but when did William’s blog become an ALP ideas clearing house?]
I think it was about three years ago from memory.
Psephos
Go back and read I did identify.
rishane @ 1387
[He said that this year, his annual charity bike ride, Pollie Pedal, was in support of Carers Australia – and that he would ride for the organisation again in 2013.]
Odd that Abbott did not mention that the taxpayer footed his accommodation bill when on that bike ride
Was he asked whether he will repeat the taxpayer funding in 2013 as well?
Dio 🙂 cheeky but funny.
Diogenes@1431
OK.
And when did it become a “Julia uncritical adulation” site? 😉
You get the feeling this isn’t going to end well.
[Former lawyer for the Obeids, Sevag Chalabian, told the ICAC on Monday that an investor in Cascade Coal, Richard Poole, told him to disguise the Obeid’s involvement in coal mining in the Bylong Valley.
Mr Chalabian agreed with counsel assisting the Commissioner, Geoffrey Watson, SC, that Mr Poole knew the Obeids were involved.
“He was the one who was telling you that the Obeid’s interests had to be carefully disguised?” Mr Watson asked.
“Yes,” Mr Chalabian said.
Mr Watson suggested that the Obeid involvement had to be carefully disguised because otherwise the state government might set aside the exploration licence.]
Started work the same day with Mr Chalabian
bemused:
[And when did it become a “Julia uncritical adulation” site?]
Apparently never, if you accept c@tmomma’s claim that I’ve ‘colonised’ the place. Self-evidently, I’m not a fan of Julia.
Er, bemused, my post made it obvious I had read Gittins.
I pointed out that he can’t cite a single expert who proposes another figure.
It’s unreasonable, therefore, to expect the government to support a figure if it isn’t backed by expert opinion (and I’m sure their experts understand the issue better than you or I).
If all the experts say 5%, and the government says 5%, that seems like a reasonable call.
bemused
[OK.
And when did it become a “Julia uncritical adulation” site? 😉 ]
25th June 2010 ?
[OK.
And when did it become a “Julia uncritical adulation” site? 😉 ]
We have a board meeting next week.
It’s on the agenda. 😉
Some people may need to pack their socks and undies.
Oh, and if we’re not to rely on experts, bemused, what are you recommending? Tea leaf reading?
You’re beginning to sound like a climate change denialist.
zoomster@1439
Sorry, I assumed you hadn’t as you clearly did not get his point.
We are still allowed to criticise the PM but we just need to be prepared to cop the flack that will follow.
Interesting tweet from Margo Kingston
[@OzEquitist @BowlerBarrister
Indeed! And why did the AEC blank out the names of the witnesses to the slush find deed?]
davidwh:
[Dio: cheeky but funny {that PB is an ALP ideas clearing house}].
If PB were an ALP ideas clearing house, having all those who were critical of the ideas ready to jump would be a good thing, surely.
Within an hour or two you get the arguments from the right, the left and the reservations, if they exist, of your most loyal supporters. You can refine your responses, seek better data and so on.
If you are going to fly a kite, having a stiff breeze is no bad thing.
zoomster@1443
You seem to think that there is agreement among experts.
There isn’t.
“@BobBrownFndn: Indian billionaire Adani, Qld Premier Newman & Labor Minister Ferguson announce plans to burn 10 billion tons of coal. Utterly deplorable!”