Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Steady as she goes from Newspoll, barring a very slight improvement in Tony Abbott’s personal ratings.

After a period of complaints about Newspoll’s volatility, the latest result (related as usual by James J) is all but unchanged on the last: Labor and the Coalition steady on 36% and 43%, with the Greens up one to 11%, and two-party preferred steady on 51-49. Julia Gillard’s personal ratings are likewise perfectly unchanged at 37% approval and 52% disapproval, although Tony Abbott is up three points on approval from a dire result last time to 30%, and down two on disapproval to 61%. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed marginally from 46-32 to 46-33. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1156.

UPDATE: The Courier-Mail today publishes federal voting intention results from the same Galaxy poll that produced yesterday’s state numbers. It shows Labor making a handy three point gain since the last poll in September at the direct expense of the Coalition, with the two parties at 33% and 46%. However, the Greens are down two points to 8%, which means there is only a one-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred, to 56-44.

The Herald Sun also has a JWS Research automated phone poll survey of 1391 Victorian voters conducted last Wednesday, with better results for the Baillieu government than Newspoll: the Coalition leads 48% to 38% on the primary vote and 52.1-47.9 on two-party preferred.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research has the Coalition gaining a point on the primary vote for the second successive week, now at 47%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 36% and 10%. Two-party preferred is unchanged at 53-47. Essential has also gauged support for the National Broadband Network and the Mineral Resources Rent Tax, which was very strong in each case, as well as for “the carbon pricing scheme – a tax on industries based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit”. It appears the extra detail in the question elicited stronger than usual support, which was at 46% against 44% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe a Coalition government should appeal it against 37% opposed, and 44% expect they would do so against 32% who don’t. On the question of its impact, “worse than expected” and “not as bad as expected” are both on 26%, with as expected on 36%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,264 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. [Peter Garrett AM MP ‏@PGarrettMP

    Chris Pyne has now gone two whole years without asking me a single question in #qt. Shows how much he cares about schools. PG ]

  2. “@PGarrettMP: Chris Pyne has now gone two whole years without asking me a single question in #qt. Shows how much he cares about schools. PG

  3. Blewitt – Nowicki connection

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/11/16/gillard-and-the-awu-slush-fund-sorting-the-smoke-from-the-fire/
    [Gillard and the AWU slush fund: sorting the smoke from the fire
    Matthew Knott | Nov 16, 2012 12:57PM

    ………

    August 3: The Oz runs three pieces by Thomas totalling around 3500 words. On page one Thomas reveals that Ralph Blewitt, a former close associate of Bruce Wilson, is willing to provide a statement to police on the AWU affair in exchange for immunity from prosecution. This is the first time Blewitt, the former legal owner of a Fitzroy home allegedly bought with misappropriated AWU funds, has spoken publicly on the matter. A lengthy feature and news story provide background, including a piece explaining Thomas came to speak to Blewitt through lawyer and amateur union historian Harry Nowicki.]

  7. The one person in recent Australian political history who undoubtedly committed criminal acts was Godwin Grech, who leaked confidential information gained in the course of his employment in Treasury, over a long period of time, to the Liberals. (Even before the change of government he leaked against Costello to the NSW Libs.) Yet he has never been prosecuted. Neither has Turnbull, who received that information knowing that it been illegally leaked to him. That’s why he trusted Grech’s fabricated leak on Ozcar, because his stuff had always been good before. I think Albanese could have made of this during the week. Maybe they’re saving for when (if) Turnbull makes a bid to regain the leadership.

  9. [Status quo = landslide win.]

    Mod Lib,

    You mean its ok by you that the Libs are currently in front, not because they are good at “attack”. I mean you really do think that’s “ok”, do you?

    In all the time you’ve been here I’ve yet to see you arguing why anyone should vote for the Libs because of something actually good the Libs might do. Go ahead, make my day.

  17. Augustus,

    A fundamental tenet of our system of Government is the separation of powers.

    Governmen’t don’t decide who will or will not be prosecuted.

  18. [Didn’t the ALP decide not to prosicute Grech]

    The ALP doesn’t decide who gets prosecuted. (More’s the pity.) Do you perhaps mean the AFP? Yes, I suppose his mental illness routine must have convinced someone.

  19. [Mod Lib,

    You mean its ok by you that the Libs are currently in front, not because they are good at “attack”. I mean you really do think that’s “ok”, do you?

    In all the time you’ve been here I’ve yet to see you arguing why anyone should vote for the Libs because of something actually good the Libs might do. Go ahead, make my day.]

    Haven’t done that much because the Libs have very sensibly made Gillard the topic of political debate for the last 2 years, not themselves. 2013 would be the policy year.

    I did support the Mental Health spending and the PPL scheme by the way.

  20. You know, Mod Lib, that in about June this year the Coalition didn’t have to do anything, just carry on with their tried-and-true approach, and they really would have had a landslide victory, 57-43.

    And they did carry on with their tried-and-true approach. They didn’t change it one bit. They’ve done Thomson (again), Slipper (again), electricity bills, carbon tax in general, NBN, mining tax, boats, leadership ‘tension’, and a direct assault on Gillard’s character. So, business as usual.

    The polls are now around 52-48. Shouldn’t they still be at 57-43?

  22. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/newman-govt-ends-year-in-turmoil/story-e6frf7kf-1226527634132

    He’s ending it in the state’s top job but plagued by accusations he’s running a dictatorial government with no regard for democracy.

    And in one of its final acts of the year, the government passed new laws that Katter’s Australian Party says are an attack on democracy itself.

    Late on Thursday, it amended legislation that only hours earlier had given the fledgling group minor party status.

    It says under the new rules, even if 15 LNP members defected to its ranks, the Katter party still wouldn’t qualify for party status and the taxpayer funding it attracts.

    But Mr Seeney said the changes were safeguarding, not crushing, democracy, by ensuring Labor is adequately resourced to be an effective opposition in parliament.

  25. @Mod Lib/7219

    Actually if you search for Tony Abbott it’s all about attacks.
    If you search for Gillard it’s both the blewitt debate and policies.

  28. [The polls are now around 52-48. Shouldn’t they still be at 57-43?]

    No. 5 or 6 points is fine at this time (Gillard basking in the I-am-woman-hear-me-roar glory with female voters). I suspect she is having a Bligh-esque bounce which will be followed by a Bligh-esque fall when the floodwaters dry and folk remember their previous dislike.

  31. Psephos

    Fair call, Grech wasn’t persuded, I do accept he was seriously deluded about his own self importance and that in itself can be seen as mental illness. At the end of the day was there any real benefit in persuing him, he had already destroyed his career and life, maybe it was considered punishment enough.

    Howard made no bones about getting the AFP involved.

  34. I wonder how drinkies went tonight? Didn’t the PM host Christmas drinks for the press gallery? I wonder what JG may have discussed with certain members of the Fourth Estate, at the punchbowl?

    I wonder too what Tim might have put in the hors d’oeuvres’?
    “Don’t eat the canapes, Jools.”

  37. http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/katter-accuses-lnp-and-labor-of-cash-grab-20121129-2aj0n.html

    Updated article (not sure what part is updated):

    Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) was granted official party status by the Queensland parliament at 5pm (AEST) on Thursday, after Liberal National Party (LNP) MP Ray Hopper defected to its ranks on the weekend.

    But at 7pm, the LNP government rushed legislation through parliament to deny KAP party status because not all its MPs had been elected as members of that party.The legislation was backed by the Labor Party.

    Not sure why ALP are involved, when QLD LNP are one who is doing the legislation.

  39. psephos,

    They are losing it because they have the same demographic saying the same crap to their demographic.

    Life has changed in the real world.

  40. [Julie Bishop’s life just got a whole lot more difficult.]

    Please tell me that isn’t true.

    Who is this cretin JBishop and the Libs shacked up with? 🙁

  41. [Rudd – not likely. Gillard is popular among her own MPs, and gaining ground with the electorate at large. Her sexism speech was a game changer, and she’s now seen as a legitimate PM. That kills off Rudd challenges full stop.]

    Not to mention that she already handled the Rudd challenge quite well back in February. 😉

  44. The Vexnews piece mentions another aspect of the AWU story which needs to be remembered. Wilson and Blewitt were part of a Left faction in the AWU which was plotting to challenge the Right, which has always run the union. Gillard was then a member of the Left, so she was peripherally involved through Wilson in preparing for that challenge – which failed, of course. Now that Gillard has gone over to the Right, and is closely allied with the current and immediate past AWU leaders (Howse and Shorten), the disgruntled old lefties are leaking whatever dirt they can find to the Libs and the media so as to undermine her.

  45. Augustus@7238


    “Julie Bishop’s life just got a whole lot more difficult”

    I think the ALP should leave this one alone.

    Agreed. The PM has already given her opinion of Blewitt on the public record. Nuff said by the ALP.

    However, this will get run by the press any time Blewitt is mentioned and Bishop may at some point have to speak to it.

  47. [The current situation is a bit of a Carr crash.]

    The are several factions of the Victorian Left, and Kim Il-Carr only heads one of them. He supported the removal of Rudd in 2010, then changed his mind and supported Rudd’s challenge in February. As a result he now has no credibility with anyone and is largely washed up as a faction boss. So I don’t know if he is involved in the attempt to undermine Gillard or not.

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