Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Steady as she goes from Newspoll, barring a very slight improvement in Tony Abbott’s personal ratings.

After a period of complaints about Newspoll’s volatility, the latest result (related as usual by James J) is all but unchanged on the last: Labor and the Coalition steady on 36% and 43%, with the Greens up one to 11%, and two-party preferred steady on 51-49. Julia Gillard’s personal ratings are likewise perfectly unchanged at 37% approval and 52% disapproval, although Tony Abbott is up three points on approval from a dire result last time to 30%, and down two on disapproval to 61%. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed marginally from 46-32 to 46-33. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1156.

UPDATE: The Courier-Mail today publishes federal voting intention results from the same Galaxy poll that produced yesterday’s state numbers. It shows Labor making a handy three point gain since the last poll in September at the direct expense of the Coalition, with the two parties at 33% and 46%. However, the Greens are down two points to 8%, which means there is only a one-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred, to 56-44.

The Herald Sun also has a JWS Research automated phone poll survey of 1391 Victorian voters conducted last Wednesday, with better results for the Baillieu government than Newspoll: the Coalition leads 48% to 38% on the primary vote and 52.1-47.9 on two-party preferred.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research has the Coalition gaining a point on the primary vote for the second successive week, now at 47%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 36% and 10%. Two-party preferred is unchanged at 53-47. Essential has also gauged support for the National Broadband Network and the Mineral Resources Rent Tax, which was very strong in each case, as well as for “the carbon pricing scheme – a tax on industries based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit”. It appears the extra detail in the question elicited stronger than usual support, which was at 46% against 44% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe a Coalition government should appeal it against 37% opposed, and 44% expect they would do so against 32% who don’t. On the question of its impact, “worse than expected” and “not as bad as expected” are both on 26%, with as expected on 36%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,264 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. [the disgruntled old lefties are leaking whatever dirt they can find to the Libs and the media so as to undermine her.]

    Old lefties can do bitterness big time. 🙁

    One thing i wonder about. Did this current round actually all start when McClelland did and interview after being annoyed that Ruddstoration had failed?? Or is that urban myth?

  2. It seems the Liberals know how to pick them. Kathy Jackson, Ralph Blewitt, Godwin Voldamort Gretch. Every time they decide to throw the sh*t they stand down wind in a gale.
    Labor should not even mention this other than to point out that the man that Bishop is using as her star witness has no credibility and is a grub of the lowest order, as is anyone prepared to fund this mans travel and defence can only be a lawyer of the lowest order, ie someone who would defend a company like CSR. Kathy Jackson will soon face the music for her actions and the while slipper/Ashby affair will run its time next year.

  3. I’ve really got to stop blogging using a mobile phone with predictive text. It does wierd things to my words and sentences. Hopefully you can understand my previous Post.

  4. [7228
    Mod Lib

    The polls are now around 52-48. Shouldn’t they still be at 57-43?

    No. 5 or 6 points is fine at this time (Gillard basking in the I-am-woman-hear-me-roar glory with female voters). I suspect she is having a Bligh-esque bounce which will be followed by a Bligh-esque fall when the floodwaters dry and folk remember their previous dislike.]

    Dream on, ML. The story follows a different course. JG has established herself as a distinctive, authoritative and increasingly-popular leader, while Abbott has been been shown – partly by his own acts and partly as a result of JG’s denunciations – to be completely unfit for office.

    In the last few days the LNP have unwittingly provided a priceless platform for JG – one she has been able to use to assert her truthfulness and her frankness. She has been able to employ this episode to repeatedly and publicly compare her own character with that of both Abbott and Bishop. The polls are already showing the public not only believe JG, they dismiss her attackers as at once dishonest and preposterous.

    Most amazing of all, Abbott used his concluding sentence in Parliament to focus on the character of the PM. While he (predictably) condemned the PM, voters inevitably will have been drawing conclusions about HIS character. It is too late for Abbott now. Voters watching him will have made their judgments based on their own standards of decency, and will implicitly compare his conduct with that of the PM.

    Not only does she now tower above her antagonists, any future attacks will most likely be construed by the public as a continuation of the defamatory allegations the LNP have been juggling over recent weeks. Such new attacks will most likely only summon deeper admiration for the PM as well as renewed resentment of her detractors. This will inevitably impact both PPM and 2PPV support.

    The LNP and their allies in the media have quite possibly succeeded in doing for JG that which she may not have been able to do alone – quickly regaining public regard and trust. At the same time, they have helped dispel any lingering idea that Rudd might yet topple the PM. Thinking she was vulnerable, and seeking to exploit that, they have revealed her strength.

    Since leadership will now be a factor that tolls against the LNP, they will go on the forage, hoping to find some policies with which to campaign. But, it almost goes without saying, policies demand effort, creativity, sound analytical skills and credible consultative processes. These qualities are entirely missing from the LNP. They have so few policy-making skills that Hockey has in fact declared a permanent freeze in relation to tax and fiscal policy. This is extraordinary: having no new policies is now an officially declared goal of the LNP.

    The LNP have completely underestimated JG. My guess is they will continue to do so and they will get a thorough hiding in 2013.

  5. We are all pleased with Kate McClymont’s Walkley Award for “McClymont won best print news report for a story on the Craig Thomson credit card claims that also appeared in The Age,” which was is a total fabrication of evidence according Peter Wicks at Independent Australia and Vex News


    discussion of credit cards evidence here

    all the Independent Australia reports about HSU by Peter Wicks can be found here

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