Newspoll: 50-50

Newspoll has maintained its jumpy record of late, the latest result reverting back to 50-50 after blowing out to 54-46 to the Coalition in the last poll three weeks ago. The two 50-50 results Newspoll has recorded have been the best results Labor has received in phone polls since early last year.

James J reports Newspoll is back to 50-50 after inflating to 54-46 to the Coalition in the last poll three weeks ago. The primary votes are 36% for Labor (up three), 41% for the Coalition (down four) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Gillard’s lead as prime minister is up slightly, from 43-33 to 45-34, but her personal ratings are rather less good than in Nielsen: approval 35% (down one) and disapproval 51% (up one). Tony Abbott has again gone backwards, his approval down three to 30% and disapproval up three to 58%. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1176 with a margin of error of about 3%.

UPDATE: Essential Research puts a dampener on things for Labor by finding the Coalition up a point on two-party preferred to now lead 54-46. The primary votes are 48% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (steady) and 9% for the Greens (9%). Also featured: 45% expect the UN Security Council seat to be of benefit to Australia against 36% of little or no benefit; 28% support the export of uranium to India against 40% opposed; 39% support nuclear power for electricity generation (up four since the wake of Fukushima) against 41% opposed (down 12); 35% rate the economy in good shape against 29% poor; 37% approve of spending cuts to keep the budget in surplus against 43% disapproval.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll also brings us a finding that only 26% expect the government to succeed in bringing the budget into surplus, against 59% who think it will not succeed (38-47 against among Labor voters, 14-78 amongst Coalition). On the question of how high a priority it should be, 35% said high, 35% said low and 21% said “not a priority”. Thirty-nine per cent agreed that Tony Abbott has been sexist towards Julia Gillard against 45% who disagreed. This breaks down, not too surprisingly, to 35-48 among men against 43-41 among women, and 66-21 among Labor supporters against 13-76 among Coalition supporters. Less expected is the concentration of support for the proposition among the 35-49 age cohort: 44-39 compared with 33-45 with younger and 40-49 with older voters. Those who agreed were further asked about the appropriateness of Gillard’s response, the upshot of which is that 2% of the overall sample felt she underreacted to Abbott’s sexism, 30% thought she got the reaction to Abbott’s sexism about right, 6% thought she overreacted to Abbott’s sexism, 45% thought there was no sexism to react to, and 16% were undecided, indifferent or ignorant of the matter.

Federal preselection news:

• The South Australian ALP has made a poorly received decision to maintain the order at the top of its Senate ticket from 2007, with parliamentary secretary and Right powerbroker Don Farrell having seniority over Finance Minister Penny Wong, a member of the minority Left faction. Farrell won the ballot by 112 votes to 83 for Wong. Anthony Albanese, a powerbroker in the NSW Left, described the result as a “joke” and an “act of self-indulgence”, offering that Wong was “obviously our most talented senator from South Australia”. Third on the ticket is Simon Pisoni, an official for the Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union and the brother of a state Liberal MP, David Pisoni.

• Andrew Crook at Crikey reports that Labor will hold a preselection for Dobell in February or March next year. Craig Thomson is suspended from the party, and is thus likely to be ineligible to nominate. Mentioned as possible contenders are David Mehan, described by Crook as the “popular local LUCRF super fund manager”, who was the party’s unsuccessful candidate in 2004 and challenged Thomson for preselection in 2010, and David Harris, Point Clare Public School principal and former state member for Wyong who lost his seat at last year’s election. Emma McBride, daughter of former The Entrance MP Grant McBride, was previously mentioned, but is now said to be “out of the race”.

• Mat Nott of the Fraser Coast Chronicle reports the candidates for Liberal National Party preselection to succeed retiring Paul Neville in the Bundaberg-based seat of Hinkler are believed to include Maryborough school principal Len Fehlhaber, Hervey Bay accountant Geoff Redpath, parole and probation officer Greg McMahon, Australian Safety and Training Alliance managing director Keith Pitt, and two political staffers – Chris McLoughlin, who works for state Bundaberg MP Jack Dempsey, and Cathy Heidrich, a former newspaper proprietor who works for Paul Neville and is “widely expected to receive at least his unofficial backing”. Michael McKenna of The Australian also mentioned former Isis mayor Bill Trevor.

• Queensland’s Liberal National Party will hold a preselection on November 24 to choose its Senate ticket, with incumbent Ian McDonald set to retain top spot and two vacancies created by the retirements of Ron Boswell and Sue Boyce. Most prominent among the 16 mooted nominees is James McGrath, the party’s campaign director for the state election this year who unsuccessfully ran against Mal Brough for the Fisher preselection after appearing to have the numbers sewn up in neighbouring Fairfax. Also mentioned are LNP vice-president Gary Spence, Toowoomba doctor and university lecturer David Van Gend, Senator Barnaby Joyce’s chief of staff Matthew Canavan, former Queensland Chamber of Commerce and Industry president David Goodwin, barrister Amanda Stoker and animal nutritionist Theresa Craig.

• A legal action that was delaying federal Liberal preselections in New South Wales has been resolved, with the state executive reluctantly agreeing to a allow a motion for rank-and-file preselections and a less interventionist state executive to be brought before the state council. The challenge in the Supreme Court arose from the David Clarke right faction, which was angered that factional rivals on the state executive, which is controlled by an alliance of moderates and the rival Alex Hawke right, had imposed candidates in the marginal Labor central coast seats of Dobell and Robertson. However, Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that “any change would require the support of 60 per cent of state council members, which many doubt it would receive”. Among the seats affected by the preselection delay was the crucial western Sydney seat of Greenway.

• Former GetUp! director Simon Sheikh has announced he will seek preselection to run as the Greens Senate candidate for the Australian Capital Territory. The Greens have been hopeful of winning the second ACT Senate seat from Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries at the past few elections, but have consistently fallen short.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,266 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. [What’s the sequence and timing of the next few polls?]
    cud

    According to La Grattan.

    [Abbott doesn’t need to push the panic button, but unless the final polls for the year bring some good news for him, there will be pressure for serious stocktaking over Christmas.]

  3. LBB
    [l

    Meh. All that means is that there will be empty half hectares doing nothing.

    Its called proper Land management and not rape and pillage for profit. Better eggs and better happy hens.]

    Whatever you call it, I have yet to meet a hen who told me she was happy.

    As for ‘better’ eggs, I enjoy the choices available.

    We have a little arrangement with a true free hen ranger: their eggs (yolks almost orange!) for our vegies (no pesticides, no artificial fertilizer). Works swimmingly.

    For the rest of us, the wealthy can afford free range eggs. The poorer folk can only afford the cheaper eggs, if they can afford eggs at all.

    Guess who lectures whom about happy chooks?

  4. Poroti

    Now, let’s see, we have “Drive out fear” and then”Institute leadership” before we get to “Eliminate slogans”.

    Pick the odd one out…

  5. ruawake,

    I would be surprised (happily surprised) if the polls before the end of the year continued on the current trend. If they did, the trend would go past 50/50 and we’d be seeing the odd poll come out as 52 for Labor.

    Half expect the trend line to flatten out around 51 or 51.5 for the Liberals. If so, expect the Murdoch media to go all out with beat ups.

  6. cc

    [If so, expect the Murdoch media to go all out with beat ups.]

    It will not matter what the polls do, they will go all out with the beat ups.

  7. Jaeger@4872


    Just saw Abbott on the news. Whoever applied his fake tan missed around his eyes, adding to his simian appearance.

    They also missed his neck and under his chin. Is it a North shore thing ? Could not afford a holiday with a $700,000 mortgage.

  8. Lord Barry Bonkton@4994


    Dave , thanks have had a look and changed some over to Bonds.What sort of warning signs do you for , before bailing out of the bonds ? Higher interest rates ? Lucky I bought 1000 Coles shares at $6.50 when Bernie Fraser was starting the options of buying shares and now rolled over to wesfarmers. Just had a look at my Rimfire shares, had them for about 2-3 years, i bought about $1000.00 at .04 cents and went down to about .02 cents after that and have just gone up to .06 cents ! Small aussie miner in Fifield nsw.Had a offer before to buy more , but needed to buy about $10k ? These are not in my super, so missed out.They mine Gold , silver, Platinum and copper , but still in the drilling stage.Hoping they hit the mother load one day.

    Barry just be careful mate. I don’t have accreditation and would not give advice even if I did.

    Bonds generally work the opposite of stocks and see capital gain when stocks go down and vice versa.

    eg some are saying if Romney wins stocks will rally and go down if Obama gets back (ie better for bonds). Lets see what happens ?

    Regarding the various inter market relationships (the markets are – stocks, bonds, commodities and exchange rates ) –

    – World growth great for commodity prices and australian economy and stockmarket but not always clear when it is happening.

    – Poor world growth is generally good for bond prices (capital gain) linked to US bond prices which are rigged by the various QE programs of the Fed, ie to keep interest rates down on the massive US debts. Once again – bond prices go up when their yield goes down. And vise versa.

    – AUD is seen as a barometer of world growth but this is being clouded by the AUD being seen as a safe haven.

    I think, (but obviously don’t know), things are still going to be difficuly for stocks for a while.

    I keep track of the results posted by Australian Super which can be downloaded into Excel etc and put into charts and the like.

    Australian Super will provide some limited advice if you need it.

    But if you start to lose money, get out to something you feel safer in.

    I no longer pick individual shares. If I think shares are going up I’m happy to let Australian Super do the picking etc and get out if I think the market is going to rollover. But that’s just a personal choice.

  9. [I would be surprised (happily surprised) if the polls before the end of the year continued on the current trend.]

    Is there any reason for the trend the stop? Abbott desperately needs a circuit breaker, he has tried with Slipper, hoped with Thomson and wished with S&G.

    Today he has come out and said his election message will be “vote for me so I can do nothing” 48-52 will be looked back on as the good old days of the Libs.

  12. Boerwar@5000


    Fran

    Um, you were the one who put yourself in charge. If I accept that, I am allowed to discuss the issues on your terms. But if I don’t, I am ‘disingenuous’. Cute. I am sure you have some fallacy term to cover it: damned if I do and damned if I don’t?

    How about sticking to one set of rules? Your goalpost shifting is dizzying.


    BW, Fran is a scroll through.

    Don’t waste your considerable talents on a lightweight schoolmarm with a predilection for 50 cent words which she barely understands, and nothing else going for her.

    Or use stfu.

  13. cud chewer@5001


    Hey Possum,

    Question for you.. Do economists have a separate measure that expresses the notion of productivity-through-technological-improvement ?

    Yes. It is recognised that the bulk of productivity gains come from technological improvement.

    No shadow of doubt.

  14. Boerwar

    [poroti
    …just teasing…]
    S’oright. I missed the wink when you posted it 🙂 Now on to Dutch matters. I just discovered today that rather than being of Aboriginal origin the name of ground zero for asbestos in Oz, Wittenoom is actually Dutch. Lang Hancock’s station partner.

  16. [Is there any reason for the trend the stop?]

    Is there any reason for the trend to continue?

    The sad fact here is that there’s nothing here on PB that would count as a theory of the minds of voters that has proven predictive ability. If someone has one, please let me know 🙂

  17. Cud Chewer went:

    [Hey Possum,

    Question for you.. Do economists have a separate measure that expresses the notion of productivity-through-technological-improvement ?]

    Sort of – it’s folded into what’s called “technical efficiency”. Technological improvement is a component of the way technical efficiency pushes out the productivity and efficiency frontiers (which are the best practice horizons for firms producing X from Y)

  18. Boer,

    Yes, true the Murdoch media are going to go into burn the furniture mode regardless of the polls. I thought about that as soon as I hit Post. Still, whilst it might take a 51 for Labor to worry some of the Liberal backbenchers, its going to take a steady trend above 50 for a few months for them to finally realise its Abbott at fault.

  19. Is there any reason for the trend the stop? Abbott desperately needs a circuit breaker, he has tried with Slipper, hoped with Thomson and wished with S&G.

    As Shellbell has been warning us, NSW could well go a bit pear-shaped for the ALP because of the ICAC hearings that have just started.

    Ian Mcdonald and Eddie Obeid to come. Oh dear.

  20. Thanks Possum.

    It bothers me that the core of our improved standards of living over the past century are fundamentally technological but the economic debate hardly notices it.

    (Yes, I got schooled in Science/Engineering.. grumble.. grumble..)

  21. Don, comments like #5013 don’t accomplish much. If you want to ignore someone, ignore someone. Repeatedly announcing you’re ignoring them is not actually ignoring them, and it lowers the tone besides.

  22. Don,
    Those wounds are deep! We’ll need to put out a blood donor alert to save the patient.

    But you’re spot on. I see Fran as a typical Green who spends all day saying very little. Nothing against Fran in particular but it is simply a Green trait. Still waiting for one of them – any of them – to put a few numbers around their endless supply of human kindness viz a viz:
    1) What is the upper limit of asylum seekers they will allow entry to
    2) What happens when they reach that number
    3) If the number is reached, will additional asylum seekers be offset against the regular migration program
    4) What punitive measures they will take should their generosity be abused

    As usual, these will be unanswered because they don’t have answers, just words. Big ones and lots of them.

  25. [As Shellbell has been warning us, NSW could well go a bit pear-shaped for the ALP because of the ICAC hearings that have just started.]

    Except a link to Federal Labor is needed. I think corrupt NSW Labor brand is already factored in. Plus it will take more than a dodgy Honda to cause outrage, most people would take a cheap motor if they could get away with it.

  27. Cud,

    Shits me to tears too. One of the most highly researched areas in the productivity and efficiency field , and the one where the most econometric consensus exists, is about technological deployment and adaptation being the driving factor for improved living standards in post-developed economies.

    Outside of mainstream commentary, it’s a slam dunk. It’s a pity mainstream commentary doesn’t say a bit more about it – even if it’s stating the obvious.

    Sometimes the obvious needs to be pointed out a bit more regularly 😛

  29. ru – I kind of agree the Roozendaal stuff is a bit ho-hum sideshow, but that’s just the teaser for the Mcdonald/Obeid stuff.

    However while you’re right that “corrupt NSW Labor brand” is well established, it won’t help to have the ALP brand publicly dragged through the mud again … if the ALP was recovering in NSW it will take a hit with these reminders of the worst of the state branch antics.

  30. [Ian Mcdonald and Eddie Obeid to come. Oh dear.]

    If it’s an honest inquiry then it’s a good thing.

    Lances the boil.

    Anyone who’s guilty should go to jail.

  31. cud chewer
    [poor cow 🙁 ]
    Poor cow but ……

    [shattered windscreen to within centimetres of Rachel’s face before the animal got up and ran off]

  32. Evening all.

    Apparently when state Cabinet were in town earlier this week, the federal Liberal candidate tried to get some photo ops with ministers and the Premier – the state Liberal candidate was photographed all over the local paper with JBishop and state ministers at a community BBQ, and got some pics with Barnett.

    The federal candidate however was ignored. No star-dust offerings for him (his name escapes me). He’ll just have to settle for photo ops with Scott Morrison next week.

  33. The Finnigans

    [
    There was something before the BIG BANG? who would have thunk that. Nobangbang yudhoyono, definitely not Tony Abbott #auspol]
    Is that the Big Bangbang Yudhoyono or the Big Bunga Bunga ?

  34. Jackol #5030, as a NSW ALP member I welcome all of this being exposed. Bring out all the poisons that lurk in the mud. Bring out the firehoses. Carmel for leader and lets rebuild from there.

  35. So Abbott’s big announcement today was to promise to deliver a policy before the next election?

    Why is OM still reporting this shit with a straight face? He should be laughed at openly instead of being taken seriously.

  39. Toorak Toff@5038


    Witty speeches at Gordon Bilney’s wake. Wordsmith Bilney gloried in the anagrammatic name Drongo Byline.

    TT – I meant to say to you the other night how highly Gordon was regarded at senior level in PNG by Public servants and Politicians he had contact with in his “Minister for the South Pacific” role.

    I’ve been back in Australia a long time now but Senior PNG Nationals just loved his lack of bullshit and genuineness.

  40. victoria:

    I WISH it was Christian Porter. No, this man is a bland non-entity with no apparent personality. The day I met him he sat in virtual silence letting Mattias Cormann speak rubbish about this region. When he did eventually venture some words, Dean Smith’s staffer talked over the top of him.

    If the Liberals are hoping to win the seat back, you wouldn’t know it from the candidate who’s been preselected.

  44. Did Abbott seriously make a speech today when he said that he wouldn’t spent any extra money in a first term?

    What kind of a tosser is this guy? Clearly he is totally spooked by the polls and is now looking for distractions.

  46. I almost feel sorry for Abbott at this point. He has shown he is utterly incapable of changing or even pretending to change ie. be nicer or do some policy. Today was a chance to set out a clearer policy agenda and he was seriously lacking.

    How exactly he is going to win over voters at this point?

  49. Dave,

    [TT – I meant to say to you the other night how highly Gordon was regarded at senior level in PNG by Public servants and Politicians he had contact with in his “Minister for the South Pacific” role.

    I’ve been back in Australia a long time now but Senior PNG Nationals just loved his lack of bullshit and genuineness.]

    I only heard that as a rumour around the traps – I’m sure it was quite right, and thank you for the reminder. So,

    [… gently rise and … softly call, “Goodnight and joy be with you all!”]

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