Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

The latest Nielsen poll gives Julia Gillard her best preferred prime minister rating since February 2011, best net approval rating since March 2011, and Labor its best two-party preferred result since November 2010.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Nielsen poll has the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 53-47 last time – Labor’s best result from Nielsen since November 2010. The primary votes show Labor steady on 34%, the Coalition down two to 43% and the Greens up one to 11%. Julia Gillard has made substantial gains personally, to the extent that she has very nearly broken even on her net rating for the first time since March 2011: her approval is up five points to 47%, and disapproval down five to 48%. Tony Abbott is up one on both approval and disapproval, to 37% and a new high of 60% respectively. On preferred prime minister, Gillard’s lead has widened from 47-44 to 50-40, her best result since February 2011.

Also, James J reports The Australian has published results of Galaxy Research poll commissioned by unspecified unions targeting two marginals in Queensland (Blair and Moreton), one in New South Wales (Greenway) and one in Victoria (Deakin), which finds Labor doing much better when respondents were asked how they would vote if Kevin Rudd was leading the party. The results for a Gillard leadership are 37% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens, with the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-pary preferred. With a Rudd leadership, this becomes 48% for Labor, 37% for the Coalition and 9% for the Greens, with Labor leading 57-43. However, I personally find little value in this kind of exercise, which gives partisan respondents from the other side an opportunity to create mischief. The combined results in these seats at the 2010 election was 52.2-47.8 to Labor, with primary votes of 40.1% for Labor, 41.0% for the Coalition and 11.5% for the Greens. However, redistribution has since weakened Deakin for Labor by 1.8%.

UPDATE: Full tables from Nielsen here, and leaders attribute ratings here. There’s nothing too sensational in the gender breakdowns in terms of changes on the last poll – indeed, the big shift is on preferred prime minister among men, from 48-43 in Abbott’s favour to 48-42 in Gillard’s. However, there’s no reflection of this in the personal ratings, with Gillard improving in the same proportions among men and women.

The headline finding of the attribute figures is that 43% consider Tony Abbott “sexist”, although another 53% think Gillard “easily influenced by minority groups”. Gillard is well favoured on foreign policy, social policy and openness to ideas, Abbott on “has the confidence of her/his party”. Abbott also has slightly leads on “trustworthy” and “firm grasp of economic policy”. The poll also finds a clear majority of 57% to 42% now in favour of the parliament running its full term. The Coalition is still clearly favoured to win the election, on 56% to 32% for Labor.

UPDATE: Essential Research is unchanged on last week, with the Coalition on 47%, Labor on 36%, the Greens on 9% and the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. Also featured are their six-monthly question on “trust in organisations and institutions”, which interestingly has everything up a few points after an across-the-board drop last time. Questions on “sexism and discrimination against women” find 62-67% of women and 49-55% of men believing it present in workplaces, media, politics, advertising and sport (politics scoring highest), but smaller numbers in schools (39% of men and 48% of women).

UPDATE 2: The Roy Morgan face-to-face polling conducted over the previous two weekends has Labor in front on the headline respondent-allocated preference measure for the first time since January, and opening a 52.5-47.5 lead on the previous election preference measure – remembering as always the consistent bias in this series to Labor. The previous poll had the Coalition with respective leads of 52-48 and 51-49. This is off the back of the weakest primary vote for the Coalition since the election, down 4.5% on the previous poll to 38.5%. Labor has gained only half a point on the primary vote to 37.5%, with both Greens and others up two, to 12.5% and 11.5%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,727 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  2. zoidlord

    Lots of those polls are PPP which tends to lean Obama. Up by 5 in VA, level in NC and ahead by 2 in FL look a bit generous.

  3. Diog @ 5535

    Not a squawk of laughter here buddy.

    Guess you really didn’t think about it that much because you were too self-indulged with imagination of a blow job.

    How sad.

    And it doesn’t make rape any better because the bloke was ugly and the women couldn’t consent.

  7. kezza

    I’m a utilitarian.

    I’m interested in the greatest amount of good for the greatest number of people.

    If the net happiness quotient for my joke was positive, I’m in the pink.

  13. Diogenes,

    This might be a good time to apologise – genuinely.

    This is also a good time for me to explain that my 😉 was with respect to my reference to South Australia, and its “interesting” history.

  15. Diog
    [If the net happiness quotient for my joke was positive, I’m in the pink.]
    Not looking too good for pink, diogs

    And not looking too good for your intellect either.

    Let’s face it, your joke wasn’t funny.

    And no amount of appealing to the ranks of those who declare that so-and-so can’t take a joke because of PC is going to make it any funnier.

  17. GG

    Perhaps even purple. Or black.

    I like Mt Athos for the Melbourne Cup, mainly because I read a thriller set on Mt Athos which I learnt is the Greek Orthodox equivalent the Vatican City.

  21. Diogenes,

    Please don’t do a Tone on us. It was a gross “joke”. Trying to redefine it in terms of colour isn’t good enough.

    Set Mr Abbott an example. Say “I apologise” – and mean it.

  22. [This little black duck
    Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 at 10:15 pm | PERMALINK
    The nearest thing the Noalition gets to AAA is a battery.]
    😆

    Now that’s bluddy funny.

    Do they test with the tongue, but.

  29. Emma has Matthias and David Bradbury on LL. I only wish it were Andrew Leigh. Leigh really know his onions; David is a bit more populist.

  33. guytaur Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 at 10:35 pm | PERMALINK

    @mishaschubert: Unaccompanied kids have been fleeing the borders of Syria – some of them under fire, says @bobjcarr. http://t.co/98PPAMmb

    Guytuar, where is their presedent ‘ still in syria

  34. An American, an Irishman and an Englishman are standing on the cliffs of Dover.

    “You know,” says the American. “There’s a funny thing about this particular spot.”

    “What is it?” asks the Irishman.

    “Well, if you jump off just here, there’s an updraft which lifts you back up.”

    “Oh, nonsense,” says the Irishman. “What do you think i am, stupid?”

    “OK,” says the American. “I’ll show you.”

    So he steps off the cliff. Sure enough, just as it seems inevitable he’ll be crushed on the rocks below, he suddenly rockets upwards.

    “Wow!” says the Irishman, and jumps off.

    As they watch him fall, the Englishman turns to the American and says, “Sometimes, Superman, you can be a real b#stard.”

  37. Interesting that kezza said to Diogs ‘your joke wasn’t funny’. There was a discussion on RN tonight with 3 female comedians, and the consensus seemed to be that humour was a very individual thing. Its also interesting that we tend to allow our cartoonists and comedians much more latitude than our politicians and commentators. I think with good reason. It helps us deal with difficult subjects. We do draw lines even with jokes, but its much further out than with normal conversation.

  42. Diogs,

    You know my 8 hosse tip last week for trifecta and first four?

    Well one of them, Southern Speed was scratched. So I selected another horse to fill the gap.

    Guess which horse I selcted.

    That’s right Niwot

  43. A duck walks into a pub one lunchtime, sits on a barstool and orders a beer and a toasted sandwich. The incredulous barman serves him. The duck pays, then eats the sandwich, downs the beer and walks out the door.

    The same thing happens for the next four days. Lunchtime, duck, toasted sandwich, beer. The excited barman tells his friend about it.

    “This duck is amazing, every day he comes in and he sits on a stool, talks, pays with a credit card, eats a sandwich and drinks a beer.”

    The next day, the barman gets chatting to the duck.

    “Are you here for long?”

    The duck says, “No, I am working at that new farmhouse getting built just down the road. It’s my last day today.”

    The barman tells him, “Look, I have a friend and I told him about you. He reckons he can get you a great job.”
    “Yeah? Where? I need another contract.”
    “He owns a circus, and he said you could make a bundle. He really wants to meet you.”
    “Okay, sounds great. Give me his number.”

    The duck orders another beer and thinks for a minute.

    “Hey barman. A circus is that show they do in big tent thing isn’t it? You know, poles, wires, canvas?”
    “Yeah, that’s a circus.”
    “Hmmm, Look, I hope you don’t mind me asking but there is just one detail I can’t work out.”
    “Yes?”
    “WTF do they want a plasterer for?”

  44. Diogenes,

    I will give your “joke” this rating:

    Black/sick.

    Not funny.

    Perhaps you should reflect upon the possibility that sometime we poor silly wifeys laugh at our hubbies’ “jokes” from mere “politeness” i.e., not wanting to get embroiled in an argument about “There you go again…”.

    I mostly never “laughed”. For several years now, I don’t but immediately attack. Result? OH rarely risks his neck these days.

  46. Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 at 10:49 pm | Permalink
    [
    Joe6pack@5582

    do females ever tell sexist jokes about males?

    You bet they do.
    So what? It doesn’t bother me or any other bloke I know and I bet it doesn’t bother you.]

    no dosen,t bother me at all . i have heard every bit of racist/sexist abuse you can imagine,just saying that women can be sometimes be just as sexist as males,and have their sexist jokes

  49. [Diogenes
    Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 at 10:17 pm | PERMALINK
    zoidlord

    Lots of those polls are PPP which tends to lean Obama. Up by 5 in VA, level in NC and ahead by 2 in FL look a bit generous.]

    PPP is pretty good actually, only about a 0.5% lean to Democrats.

    Rasmussen is about a 2% lean to Repubs so that pollster is much worse.

    Gallup is under-representing non-Caucasian voters apparently.

    Every pollster is estimating who is going to vote (Obama is usually better in actual responses from respondents but this is then adjusted for likelihood of voting)……so at the end of the day, just like every election, it is going to all come down to whether each side’s voters actually vote.

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