GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Nielsen poll has the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 53-47 last time – Labor’s best result from Nielsen since November 2010. The primary votes show Labor steady on 34%, the Coalition down two to 43% and the Greens up one to 11%. Julia Gillard has made substantial gains personally, to the extent that she has very nearly broken even on her net rating for the first time since March 2011: her approval is up five points to 47%, and disapproval down five to 48%. Tony Abbott is up one on both approval and disapproval, to 37% and a new high of 60% respectively. On preferred prime minister, Gillard’s lead has widened from 47-44 to 50-40, her best result since February 2011.
Also, James J reports The Australian has published results of Galaxy Research poll commissioned by unspecified unions targeting two marginals in Queensland (Blair and Moreton), one in New South Wales (Greenway) and one in Victoria (Deakin), which finds Labor doing much better when respondents were asked how they would vote if Kevin Rudd was leading the party. The results for a Gillard leadership are 37% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens, with the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-pary preferred. With a Rudd leadership, this becomes 48% for Labor, 37% for the Coalition and 9% for the Greens, with Labor leading 57-43. However, I personally find little value in this kind of exercise, which gives partisan respondents from the other side an opportunity to create mischief. The combined results in these seats at the 2010 election was 52.2-47.8 to Labor, with primary votes of 40.1% for Labor, 41.0% for the Coalition and 11.5% for the Greens. However, redistribution has since weakened Deakin for Labor by 1.8%.
UPDATE: Full tables from Nielsen here, and leaders attribute ratings here. There’s nothing too sensational in the gender breakdowns in terms of changes on the last poll – indeed, the big shift is on preferred prime minister among men, from 48-43 in Abbott’s favour to 48-42 in Gillard’s. However, there’s no reflection of this in the personal ratings, with Gillard improving in the same proportions among men and women.
The headline finding of the attribute figures is that 43% consider Tony Abbott “sexist”, although another 53% think Gillard “easily influenced by minority groups”. Gillard is well favoured on foreign policy, social policy and openness to ideas, Abbott on “has the confidence of her/his party”. Abbott also has slightly leads on “trustworthy” and “firm grasp of economic policy”. The poll also finds a clear majority of 57% to 42% now in favour of the parliament running its full term. The Coalition is still clearly favoured to win the election, on 56% to 32% for Labor.
UPDATE: Essential Research is unchanged on last week, with the Coalition on 47%, Labor on 36%, the Greens on 9% and the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. Also featured are their six-monthly question on “trust in organisations and institutions”, which interestingly has everything up a few points after an across-the-board drop last time. Questions on “sexism and discrimination against women” find 62-67% of women and 49-55% of men believing it present in workplaces, media, politics, advertising and sport (politics scoring highest), but smaller numbers in schools (39% of men and 48% of women).
UPDATE 2: The Roy Morgan face-to-face polling conducted over the previous two weekends has Labor in front on the headline respondent-allocated preference measure for the first time since January, and opening a 52.5-47.5 lead on the previous election preference measure – remembering as always the consistent bias in this series to Labor. The previous poll had the Coalition with respective leads of 52-48 and 51-49. This is off the back of the weakest primary vote for the Coalition since the election, down 4.5% on the previous poll to 38.5%. Labor has gained only half a point on the primary vote to 37.5%, with both Greens and others up two, to 12.5% and 11.5%.
Cormann Yebbut.
[guytaur
Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 at 10:57 pm | PERMALINK
Good Lateline.]
Not sure where you get that idea from????
Shouting and attacking each other without saying much from my viewpoint!
So there’s this bloke at the Olympics.
An athelete walks past him holding a 20 foot long fibreglass pole.
The bloke asks, “Are you a pole vaulter?”
The athlete says, “Why, yes I am. But how did you know my name was Walter?”
tlbd
:kiss:
5544 Puff, the Magic Dragon. Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 at 10:11 pm | PERMALINK
Tressure the letter you sent and the reply hope you kept a copy of both
For your children and theirs,
I wonder has any one, ever gone to that trouble,
That’s just so so kind
I’ve got a joke for you, fiona.
The Coalition think Matthias Cormann is their Arnold Schwarzenegger doppelganger. 🙂
Mod Lib,
Prety sure that’s exactly what I said last week.
Do try and and keep up.
Three people of different cultural identities enter a bar and agree to do something. One of them does it foolishly, thereby unfortunately stereotyping everybody in his culture as foolish.
Yeah, I went meta.
Mod Lib
Yes Corman is a rude bastard
Talking of ducks, Puff… There’s this story that Peter Reith got on a tram carrying a duck one night.
A drunk shouted out, “You can’t bring that animal on here!”
Reith replied, “Oh yes I can. I’ve looked up the tramways regulations and there’s nothing against taking a duck on board.”
The drunk yelled back, “I wasn’t talking to you! I was talking to the duck!”
If Poroti is around, that was adapted from an old Piggy Muldoon story.
U wonder sometimes
Abbott costelo and all their mates got free
Uni, annoys the hellout of me
That they. Take tbeir
Free uni education for granted,
Hippolyta: “Yeah we need you now but in 3,000 years …”
dio /gg pick a horse lets have a trifecta
BB,
I tried to do a parody, but decided that some things are beyond…
During the Iraq War, President was solemnly advised that 9 Brazilians had been lost.
President Bush looked up quizically and said that was terrible and then asked, “How much is a Brazillion”
Matthius really is a motormouth. What a dribbler…
Bradbury showed some balls there to stand up to him and interrupt him as much as Cormann did. Good to see.
So this guy goes to the doctor and says doctor you gotta help me…
[my say
Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 at 11:03 pm | PERMALINK
U wonder sometimes
Abbott costelo and all their mates got free
Uni, annoys the hellout of me
That they. Take tbeir
Free uni education for granted,]
I agree. All those ALP States swimming in GST gold without thanking Howard….
fiona
[Perhaps you should reflect upon the possibility that sometime we poor silly wifeys laugh at our hubbies’ “jokes” from mere “politeness” i.e., not wanting to get embroiled in an argument about “There you go again…”.]
You clearly haven’t met Mrs D.
Friday night news on a different “Electoral College” ;)… there will be 6 cardinals created on 24 November. This was not unexpected. It may be a sign of keeping up the voting numbers (120) in the event of a conclave.
This consistory is highly unusual for a number of reasons:
– at 6, it is the lowest number of new creations since 1977 (which itself was just before the death of Paul VI)
– there are no Europeans being created, rebalancing a bit from the last few conclaves (but query if a reaction to the current scandal in the Roman Curia??)
– this is the first time there have been no Europeans created cardinals since 1924 (when there were 2 American cardinals)
– it is the first calendar year in which there are 2 consistories, since 1929
– it is the shortest interval (280 days) since the consistory of 1960
– only one creation is from the Roman Curia (HQ); rest are diocesan, again balancing out the last few conclaves
http://popes-and-papacy.com/wordpress/
Joe,
I’ll take Green Moo(n) in honour of the recently departed Vera.
If the states didnt have the GST ML they would have the old sales tax, or something similar.
Nothing to thank Howard for. He botched it anyway by excluding food.
Mod lib.
Tro.ling again
I ll bite
What the heck has. Pre h e c s got to do
With gst
Lol
C@tmomma,
[I’ve got a joke for you, fiona.
The Coalition think Matthias Cormann is their Arnold Schwarzenegger doppelganger.]
Clearly it was an excellent mothers’ lunch 😀
As for the Coalition’s attempted analogy, in all seriousness I’m glad that I’m not eating/drinking what they are ingesting.
They are stark staring, and with any luck are beyond excuse. Not even the Cardinal’s.
I. Bet none of your mates. Wrote to pm whitlam and thamked him
Did u modern liberal
Henry,
Don’t be harsh on Mod Lib. Afterall, the GST got rid of the cash economy.
ocean park for me then
Dio your turn
Is this a correct assumption?
$12 Billion Monster Tax for Abbott’s PPL.
Of course, IF Abbott gets over the election line first, it won’t last longer than 24 hours after Costello’s Commission of Audit release. A magic $12 Billion hole will open up and swallow it methinks.
Yes that’s what i heard too
But did it.
1 brazillion = 186,112,794
http://qntm.org/brazillion
GG,
Nice, very nice.
fiona,
I only had half a glass of white wine, but it was enough to unlock the hinge in my brain that normally constrains my reservations about letting it all hang out verbally, in a funny way. 🙂
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Friday, October 26, 2012 at 11:07 pm | PERMALINK
During the Iraq War, President was solemnly advised that 9 Brazilians had been lost.
President Bush looked up quizically and said that was terrible and then asked, “How much is a Brazillion”]
That punch-line turned out better than I was expecting!
Even the people of the electorate she was reported to have represented didn’t know who she was, they didn’t see hide nor hair of her for most of the time she was their member.
I thought a Brazillian was when you had nothing around 0.
Diogenes,
[You clearly haven’t met Mrs D.]
As far as I understand it, you live in Adelaide. I live in Melbourne. I have complete respect for Mrs Diogenes (as I sure you have for Mr Fiona).
However, from the slight hints that I have had from you, I suspect that you might be subject to a degree of chastisement regarding your “joke”. So you should be. It was inappropriate. Completely.
I would be somewhat concerned if Mrs Diogenes differs from the general assessment.
‘sHonour, Brian Leveson, is due to report by the end of November.
Seems he is coming to Oz in January (?). I hope JGPM has a word in his shell-like.
C@tmomma,
The first is the worst. Settle back.
fiona,
In days of yore, Mrs D has been known to take over from Diogs when she wasn’t pleased with his posts.
So, you’re on the money.
Any word from Chris Murphy who the SA pollieis whose career is about to end?
Gawd I hope its you know who.
TLBD
Is there any word on Mr Jay accompanying him? The PB Mr Jay Groupie Club will organise a bus trip.
C@tmomma,
My carefully considered response is:
BINGO!!!
C@tmomma
If you can feb17/2013 should be another pb meeting with bb/etc when I fly in. more than welcome
[Seems he is coming to Oz in January (?)]
Excellent.
Puff,
I’m selling tickets. Want one?
lynchpin,
If it is YNW I will buy the most expensive bottle of SA sparkling champers-like I can lay my hands on, open the popcorn, turn on the TV and then I will roll around on the carpet laughing until I pass out from failed breathing.
BTW, that is Robert Jay QC.
Suffer in your jocks, George Brandis SC,/B>.
If Carine is coming I’m buying up all the tickets.
Duckie,
Put me down for one, and any word on Corrine? (spelling?) That would be the trifecta.
Puffy,
So, just another Friday night in paradise.
[Any word from Chris Murphy who the SA pollieis whose career is about to end?]
If true, probably a Senator, which means quiet resignation and unceremonious replacement by another Lib…
This little black duck@5646
I am guessing what the B stands for.