Galaxy: 57-43 to federal Coalition in Queensland; Seat of the week: Lingiari

GhostWhoVotes tweets that a Galaxy poll on federal voting intention in Queensland gives the Coalition a two-party lead of 57-43 – a seven-point turn-around in Labor’s favour since the last such poll three months ago, suggesting a swing to the Coalition/LNP of only 2% since the 2010 election. Leaving aside the Labor-skewed Morgan face-to-face series, the last time a published poll of federal voting intention showed a swing that low was the Newspoll of May 27-29, 2011, which had the Coalition leading 52-48 nationally. The only Queensland seat Labor would lose on a uniform swing of that size would be Moreton, held by Graham Perrett on a margin of 1.1% (the present numbers in Queensland are 21 seats for the LNP, eight for Labor and one for Bob Katter). The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up seven on the previous poll) and 49% for the Coalition (down seven). The poll also finds 52% detecting little or no impact of the carbon tax on their household budget, against 15% for “major impact” and 27% for “minor impact”. New asylum seeker laws are rated “strong” by 26% of respondents, “inhumane” by 18% and “too little too late” by 51%. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800, and has a margin of error of about 3.5%.

UPDATE: The Sunday Mail today has further results from the poll which show “two out of three people believe the Premier is going too far with his proposal to cut 20,000 public sector jobs”, together with figures showing widespared feelings of job insecurity, particularly among government employees.

Further evidence of the Queensland elastic snapping back was provided earlier this week by ReachTEL, which conducted automated phone polls of three seats out of the many which the LNP won from Labor at the state election. These showed Labor leading in two of the seats and lineball in the third. My own calculation of two-party preferred results based on preferences from the previous election had Labor leading 60-40 in Sandgate, a swing to the of 13%, and 51-49 in Brisbane Central, a swing to them of 6%. I had the LNP 51-49 ahead in Towsville, but Possum has it at 51-49 in Labor’s favour – no doubt having used a formula that took better account of the decline of the Katter’s Australian Party vote. The poll also found Campbell Newman’s personal ratings in Sandgate and Townsville in Tony Abbott if not Julia Gillard territory, though he scored better in Brisbane Central. There was similarly a strong view he had not kept his promises in Sandgate and Townville, but an even divide of opinion in Brisbane Central. The samples on each poll were around 400, for margins of error approaching 5%.

And not forgetting …

Seat of the week: Lingiari

I’ve previously been limited my Seat of the Week choices to seats where both parties have preselected candidates, but am making an exception today in a spirit of keeping things topical. The federal seat of Lingiari covers the entirety of the Northern Territory outside of Darwin, which for the most part will play second fiddle during tomorrow night’s election count: whereas Darwin’s suburbs teem with marginal seats, the remainder is largely divided between Country Liberal Party strongholds in Alice Springs and Labor strongholds elsewhere. However, the tea-leaves of the regional and remote results will be read carefully for federal implications given Labor member Warren Snowdon’s narrow margin in Lingiari, and recent rumours of Labor internal polling showing him headed for defeat.

The Northern Territory was first granted its own seat in the federal parliament in 1922, but its member did not attain full voting rights until 1968. Perhaps not coincidentally, the seat had recently fallen to Sam Calder of the Country Party after a long period of Labor control. The Country Liberal Party was established in 1978 as a local alliance between coalition parties to contest elections in the the newly established Northern Territory parliament, and Grant Tambling succeeded Calder as its members upon the latter’s retirement at the 1980 election. Tambling was unseated by Labor’s John Reeves in 1983, and returned as a Senator four years later. The seat thereafter changed hands with some regularity: future Chief Minister Paul Everingham recovered it for the CLP in 1984, Warren Snowdon won it back for Labor in 1987, Nick Dondas held it for the CLP for one term from 1996, and Snowdon recovered it in 1998.

The population of the Northern Territory is such that it consistently hovers between an entitlement of one or two seats according to the formula used to allocate seats to the states and territories. It first rose above the line prior to the 2001 election, resulting in the territory’s division between Solomon, covering Darwin, and Lingiari, which in accommodating the entire remainder of the territory is the second largest electorate in geographical terms after Durack in Western Australia. However, when the Australian Electoral Commission next conducted its mid-term determination of seat entitlements the Northern Territory had fallen 295 residents short of the number required to its second seat. With Labor and the Coalition both convinced they could win both seats at the 2004 election, the parliament proved amenable to arguments that the determination left the territory under-represented, and passed legislation to reinstate the second seat. Solomon and Lingiari accordingly have the lowest enrolments of any seats in Australia at around 62,000, compared with a national average of about 95,000 (which together with the extensive use of mobile booths explains the scarcity of numbers on the 2010 results map at the bottom of the post).

Lingiari is notable for having by far the highest proportion of indigenous persons of any seat in the country, at 41.8% against 15.7% for second-placed Durack. Relatedly, and depressingly, it also has the lowest median age of any electorate. The support of Aboriginal voters has given Labor enough of a base to have kept the seat in their hands, despite CLP strength in pastoral areas and the urban centres of Alice Springs, Katherine and Tennant Creek. Labor’s margins have progressed over four elections from 5.3% to 7.7% to 11.2% to 3.7%. The diversity of the electorate’s components can make for enormously complicated election results, as demonstrated by local swings over the last three elections. In the wake of the Howard government’s intervention into Aboriginal communities before the 2007 election, mobile polling booths swung 8.4% to Warren Snowdon off an already very high base of 78.7%. However, it was a very different story in 2010, when these booths swung to the CLP by no less than 28.1% – a result variously put down to the troubled Strategic Indigenous Housing and Infrastructure Program, the actions of newly merged regional councils, and the ongoing suspension of the Racial Discrimination Act by the new Labor government. Remarkably, the swings in Alice Springs were in the opposite direction, with Snowdon down 2.6% in 2007 and up 8.4% in 2010. In Tennant Creek the Labor vote fell from 58.7% to 34.2% while the Greens rocketed from 4.6% to 33.7%, a result credited to the Muckaty Station nuclear waste dump proposal.

Snowdon is a figure in Labor’s Left faction, and has held junior ministry positions since the Rudd government came to power in 2007. He had earlier been a parliamentary secretary during his first stint as a member from 1990 to 1996, again reaching the position in opposition after the 2001 election. After the 2007 election win he received a substantial promotion to the junior defence science and personnel ministry, which Glenn Milne in The Australian credited to his close association with Julia Gillard. Snowdon was demoted to indigenous health, rural and regional services after Joel Fitzgibbon resigned as Defence Minister in June 2009, which Philip Dorling of the Canberra Times put down to incoming Defence Minister John Faulkner’s “longstanding lack of enthusiasm” for him, “and perhaps more specific concerns about the contribution Mr Snowdon’s office may have made in the past week to Fitzgibbon’s downfall”. He recovered defence science after the 2010 election and further gained veterans affairs, while dropping rural and regional services.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,858 comments on “Galaxy: 57-43 to federal Coalition in Queensland; Seat of the week: Lingiari”

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  5. Spur212: It’s been a shocker of a week for Abbott, and a great one for Gillard – yep, even I acknowledge that.

  8. Doyley,

    For the voter: “Sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me.”

    It’s when the words translate into spears and rocks that they take notice.

  10. I wonder if personal approval figures for both the PM and Abbott will be released ?

    I would like to see what, if any. changes have happened for Abbott especially.

  11. Julia’s safe until the next election, in the Labor leadership – that’s my honest take on the situation.
    Abbott won’t be Coalition leader at the next election – another gut instinct of mine.

  13. Its about to get better for Labor too. The unions are about to run an TV ad campaign over the sacking of health support staff and ambos. Its going to get ugly soon.

  15. Psephos,

    Norwegian law does not allow that.

    I would guess that “redemption is always possible” is behind that.

    If it is a case of that versus the USA, paint me a blue cross and put it on a red background.

  17. Guys – what’s on the agenda over the next 12 months that comes to mind? Any more legislation that either gives the Noalition something to hang their hat on… alternatively, is there anything progressive and impressive this parliament is planning on addressing before the election comes (eg same sex marriage)?

    for the past year or so, figured that let the ALP at least deal with a prospective drubbing by passing a bunch of enduring genuinely good stuff that at least they can look back on with some pride. Now that perhaps some narrowing is possibly on the cards, hope there is no let up on this… despair of some Arbib/Bitar consultants advising Julia to play it safe or some such intellectual nonsense that got them into the whole mess to begin with.

    What’s the strategy from here to next July?

  18. While it is only a couple of seats, I suspect Abbott and the Libs overreached in SA, re: the BHP announcement the other day. The vibe I am getting is people here are seeing his “I weep for you” rhetoric as nothing more than political opportunism. Obviously I cannot truly gauge that without poll data but the opinion pieces have actually been pretty damning against Abbott and sympathetic towards the state Labor govt.

  19. Psephos,

    Breivik is unlikely to ever be released. The Norwegian criminal justice system provides for the indefinite extension of imprisonment where a convicted offender is deemed to pose a serious threat to public safety.

    The following article explains the Norwegian reaction to the sentence, and to Breivik and the far-right generally. It’s very interesting.

    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2012/08/24/cold-clinical-and-sane-the-only-thing-anders-breiviks-terrorist-attack-must-change-is-far-right-racism/

  20. TLM
    I think you are right on that one. Newman is the most rotten viscous piece of cat’s vomit ever to grace one of our parliaments.

  21. Doyley,

    The PM‘s put down there is a classic:

    JOURNALIST: Prime Minister, you have said in the past that you were young and naïve when you got involved with Mr Wilson. But, I mean, you were 30 at the time. You were establishing your legal career. It might seem a bit odd to people on that defence; it wasn’t like you were off the first train from Adelaide, for instance.

    PM: Well, how old are you? How old are you?

    JOURNALIST: Thirty-two.

    PM: Right. Let me assure you, you will know a lot more by the time you’re 50 than you do now.

  22. And hey, I’m still a huge Ruddite, but I know the wind has changed direction, Gillard’s position in the partyroom will have been reinforced after this week.
    Abbott’s the enemy – K Rudd & his supporters can contribute greatly to the reelection of this government, as I’m sure he’ll do so.

  23. Is Jessica the first Jurno to admit to reading PB

    Not surprised by this poll, Can Do has gone over board with his remedy to Queensland economic ills.

    I think one seat that will be worth watching is Longman, I recall when Mal Brough lost the seat, many said it was due to the seat having a very large pensioner population, particularly single parents.

  25. Wonder if Newman is looking to push unions into striking. Then he turns all blame on them for what is really impact of cuts.

  26. Ducky @121,

    I saw that and had a great laugh at the time.

    I have had the pleasure and misfortune of being both ages and know exactly what she means.

  27. For comparisons with Newman I think you have to look to US Tea Party types.
    That governor in Wisconsin slashing police, fire and teachers salary for example.

    I do not like Clive Palmer. However he has proved in the last few days that he recognises limits. This from a Joh Bjelke fan.

  30. [Dennis Atkins]

    Why is it that Abbott’s admission that you can’t trust what he says unless it’s in writing is never thrown back at him in an interview or even in an article about honesty? Labor have rarely used that admission and gave up on it as the journalists refused to take it up as a talking point. Maybe now is the time for Labor to raise it again as the climate might be just about right for another journo to have a go at him.

  32. Hi I posted a comment over at newspoll blog before I realized things have moved to here, I am sitting at heathrow waiting to come home to Oz, 4 hours here and another 24 hours and will be home. I am hoping and think the Nielsen Poll (this weekend will continue with the better polls in the last week) Also heartened by some of the journos comments about TA, like LO DA and JW as reported above, maybe things are changing, conversions on road to Damascus??????
    Going to go and have a shower soon to help me prepare for the big flights

  33. Doyley,

    The even funnier thing is that the other journalists laughed. After all, HE was not one of THEM!

    They are just so much up themselves.

  34. Just so we are totally clear about the leadership: I really don’t care, just so long as they keep Tony Abbott out of the lodge.

    There are certain Liberals who I could tolerate as PM. Abbott by contrast is dangerous

  35. Been reading Greg Jericho’s book The rise of the Fifth Estate.

    Highly recommended for its summation of the Australian political online landscape.

  37. I don’t think the Unions will have to campaign that hard against Can Do for his cuts are so very aggressive and will be clearly felt by everyone.

  39. I wonder if senior figures in the Federal Coalition will have a few words with Newman about him potentially costing them the next election, because the way things are going……….the Gillard Govt are set to not only retain all of their existing federal seats in the state, but have a chance of picking up a couple more.
    This argument that Newman, O’Farrell and Bailieu are templates for how an Abbott Government would operate is an effective one for Labor.

  42. Is there any polling on Windsor and Oakeshott? They in particular, I suspect, can look back on 2010-13 as an incredibly proud legacy – in governance terms, this parliament has been one of the best ever. Just wish the likes of these two could hold the BoP in the senate going forwards

  43. Thanks Spur for both references.

    The hitherto sheep seem to be trying out some wolves clothing. Might form a decent pack out of them yet.

  44. TLM – The Queensland Government has basically said it will be following though with the cuts, I am sure I saw Costello urging them to stay the course.

    But then he isn’t a fan of Tone

  45. [There are certain Liberals who I could tolerate as PM. Abbott by contrast is dangerous]

    Only Turnball, and he’s got zero chance of winning any leadership vote.

  49. The Coalition were slaughtered in QT yesterday.
    Most confident I’ve seen Labor in ages!
    Gillard better get the response to Gonski right, that’s the next big test for her.

  50. TLM

    I agree with your assessment regarding Turnbull. He suffers the whole utegate debacle. All the reason the right needs to block him.

    I think the new Liberal leader will be someone keeping relatively quiet. Like Hunt returning to his uni essay day beliefs.

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