Seat of the week: Blair

Blair has covered a highly variable area around Ipswich since its creation in 1998, having been substantially redrawn at three redistributions since. Originally covering areas inland of Ipswich and the Sunshine Coast, the redistributions of 2004 and 2007 saw it progressively take over central Ipswich from Oxley. Prior to the 2010 election it lost 28,000 voters in territory south of Ipswich to the new seat of Wright, in exchange for 13,200 voters in rural areas around Lake Wivenhoe to the north (previously in Dickson and Fisher) and 5500 in the eastern Ipswich suburbs of Collingwood Park and Springfield Central (from Oxley). As the areas lost were rural and conservative, Labor’s margin was boosted from 4.5% to 7.0%. The seat further recorded what by Queensland standards was a mild swing of 2.7%, the resulting Labor margin of 4.2% making it their fourth safest seat in the state.

Ipswich had been an area of strength for Labor since the early days of the party’s history owing to its now defunct coal mining industry, but it has more recently been prone to rebellion against the party’s efforts to appeal to new middle-class constituencies. The most famous such occasion occurred when Pauline Hanson won Oxley in 1996, scoring 48.6% of the primary vote as an independent after the Liberals disendorsed her for advocating the abolition of government assistance for Aborigines. The creation of Blair in the next redistribution did Hanson a poor turn, dividing her home turf between two electorates. Rather than recontest Oxley or (more sensibly) run for the Senate, Hanson chanced her arm at the new seat, but the major parties’ decision to direct preferences to each other may have sealed her doom. Hanson led the primary vote count with 36.0% against 25.3% for Labor and 21.7% for Liberal, but Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson pulled ahead of Labor on minor party preferences and defeated Hanson by 3.3% on Labor preferences.

Thompson went on to absorb most of the disappearing One Nation vote in 2001, more than doubling his primary vote without improving his two-party margin over Labor. A redistribution ahead of the 2004 election clipped this by 1.8%, but he went on to handsomely consolidate his position with a 4.5% swing. In 2007 the Liberals targeted Blair as part of its “firewall” strategy, a key element of which was a risky decision to fund a $2.3 billion Ipswich Motorway bypass at Goodna in the neighbouring electorate of Ryan. This proved of little use, with Labor picking up a decisive swing of 10.2% which typified the shift of blue-collar voters back to Labor on the back of WorkChoices.

Labor’s winning candidate was Shayne Neumann, a family lawyer and partner in the Brisbane firm Neumann & Turnour and member of the state party’s Labor Unity/Old Guard faction. His LNP opponent at the coming election will be Teresa Harding, who is “director of the F-111 Disposal and Aerial Targets Office” at the RAAF Base Amberley.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,255 comments on “Seat of the week: Blair”

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  4. victoria

    Grylls deserves an A+ for saying to the IPA “I’ve suggested they get stuffed.”. If only the ABC would learn how to say that 😉

  9. [Latika Bourke ‏@latikambourke
    But Opposition says if the Government ‘waters down’ any of the measures the coalition proposes they should expect ‘watered down’ results. ]

    Could this be a weakening of the NO campaign?

  11. [David Manne @david_manne 7m
    About to be briefed by the Australian Govt’s #ExpertPanel on #asylumseekers re their report]

  12. I just noticed the title of the Rowe cartoon ‘Political Line Honours” ? A very nice point by Mr Rowe.Just because you get over the line first does not mean you win the race. The minister is neck and neck with Tones despite having a smaller boat with smaller budgie smuggler sails. This makes him a fave to be declared the race winner 🙂
    Now what is that billowing around Scoots neck ? I am sure it means something…what ever it is. A white flag ready to be run up ?

  18. [My Daily News @my_daily_news 5m
    QANTAS CEO Alan Joyce will be at the Gold Coast Airport this afternoon for a “major announcement”. More details to come.]

  19. http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/i-rejected-barnetts-advances-quigley-20120813-243tf.html

    [‘I rejected Barnett’s advances’: Quigley
    Date August 13, 2012 – 9:30AM
    Courtney Trenwith

    Labor MP John Quigley has made an extraordinary claim that Premier Colin Barnett recently offered him a ministerial position if he switched to the Liberal Party.

    Mr Quigley said the “serious” offer was made about eight weeks ago in the MPs meeting room at Parliament House and he firmly rejected it.

    “He spoke to me one-on-one,” Mr Quigley told ABC Radio.

    “(He said) ‘if you leave the Labor Party and join the Liberal Party I’ll give you a seat in Cabinet’.]
    more in the article

  22. [ABC News 24 @ABCNews24 40s
    An expert panel has spent 6 weeks reviewing asylum seeker policy. At 12:30pm EST we will have live coverage of the panel’s findings #auspol]

  24. v

    [My Daily News @my_daily_news 5m
    QANTAS CEO Alan Joyce will be at the Gold Coast Airport this afternoon for a “major announcement”. More details to come.]

    I didn’t realize that QANTAS had enough staff left for a major announcement.

  27. [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 18s
    Nationals Darren Cheeseman and Labor’s Richard Marles both re-preselected]
    View details ·

  28. QANTAS CEO Alan Joyce will be at the Gold Coast Airport this afternoon for a “major announcement”

    Taken over by Virgin?

  33. I just want to know….

    [BLAMING state governments for electricity price increases is the second step in Julia Gillard’s new political strategy. On the back of this week’s Newspoll, which saw Labor’s primary vote increase from 28 to 33 per cent, it is part of the Prime Minister’s plan to spend more time fighting state premiers and less time focusing on Tony Abbott.
    “She needs to show the public that she cares about their problems and cost of living issues are a major problem for people,” one well-placed Labor source says.

    The aim is to cast Abbott aside, instead using conservative premiers as the benchmark for the type of uncaring regime Abbott might lead if handed the reins of power.

    It is a strategy that has been hatched by the PM’s communications director John McTernan — a Scot with an old-fashioned view that painting Tories as cold-blooded is Labor’s best chance of gaining traction with voters.]

    …. when and where I can claim my royalties from this seeing as I copywrited this strategy several months ago.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/gillards-new-shock-tactics/story-e6frg6z6-1226447873547

  34. BW

    Qantas has the knack of hiding behind a political shtfight for its major announcments.

    I am surprised that this time they didnt wait for a boat to be sinking off the coast of Xmas Island.

  37. I’m betting the general consensus on here is that when Abbott and the Greens Party say “no” to the Angus Houston panel recommendations, public opinion will judge him and the Greens Party for maintaining the impasse and not Gillard …

    (sigh)

  38. Vic

    Indeed. Bash the Premiers. Make Abbott defend everything they do. Indicate that Abbott will cut the life force out of government services etc etc.

  39. [Qantas has the knack of hiding behind a political shtfight for its major announcments.]

    Or, in the case of the lockout, starting one.

    They don’t realise that “Qantas never crashed” is their greatest sales asset, and now they’re sacking maintenance workers and God knows who else.

    They’ll just become “another airline”. That’ll work. Not.

  40. [Labor MP John Quigley has made an extraordinary claim]

    This would be the most recent one on a long list of extraordinary claims.

  42. [Indeed. Bash the Premiers. Make Abbott defend everything they do. Indicate that Abbott will cut the life force out of government services etc etc.]

    And that he’ll do it in concert with crazies like Can-Do and Fatty.

  43. Before advocating we first trial the Coalition’s AS “solution” keep in mind The Wet/Cyclone Season will soon be upon us. Boat numbers will naturally fall and despite it being seasonal the Libs saying “Look at the arrivals number” would be almost impossible to counter by Labor.

  44. victoria – thanks re timing of presser. I’m trying to do 60 household things at once here so will make sure I’m finished by 12.30pm.

    Was so cheesed off listening to SHY and Morrison this morning that I turned everything off and got on with those ‘put it off til tomorrow’ jobs .

  46. Spur,

    Not often I agree with you, but on this one I think we’re as one. Abbott will say NO because he’s confident that Gillard will wear the blame. Haven’t seen any evidence yet to discredit that idea. It’s high stakes, but unless the Greens move it’s probably the only move she has. To capitulate would be worse than trying to at least muddy the waters on who’s at fault.

  49. The thing is Abbott sill surely say no. But this time he will lose some skin and some credibility. Houston is nobodies fool.

  50. http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/qld-war-breaks-out-between-newman-palmer-20120813-243uw.html

    [Qld war breaks out between Newman, Palmer
    Date August 13, 2012 – 11:26AM

    AAP

    The Queensland premier has accused billionaire Clive Palmer of trying to use his mates in the Liberal National Party to stitch up political favours.

    Campbell Newman has accused the LNP supporter and wannabe federal candidate of trying to pressure his government on a range of issues.

    He said Mr Palmer wasn’t going to get any special treatment, and if he didn’t like it he should consider abandoning his membership of the party.

    Mr Newman’s comments came after Mr Palmer said the government’s program of public sector job cuts wouldn’t put a dent in the state’s debt, and the premier needed to focus on growth.]
    more in the report

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