Seat of the week: Blair

Blair has covered a highly variable area around Ipswich since its creation in 1998, having been substantially redrawn at three redistributions since. Originally covering areas inland of Ipswich and the Sunshine Coast, the redistributions of 2004 and 2007 saw it progressively take over central Ipswich from Oxley. Prior to the 2010 election it lost 28,000 voters in territory south of Ipswich to the new seat of Wright, in exchange for 13,200 voters in rural areas around Lake Wivenhoe to the north (previously in Dickson and Fisher) and 5500 in the eastern Ipswich suburbs of Collingwood Park and Springfield Central (from Oxley). As the areas lost were rural and conservative, Labor’s margin was boosted from 4.5% to 7.0%. The seat further recorded what by Queensland standards was a mild swing of 2.7%, the resulting Labor margin of 4.2% making it their fourth safest seat in the state.

Ipswich had been an area of strength for Labor since the early days of the party’s history owing to its now defunct coal mining industry, but it has more recently been prone to rebellion against the party’s efforts to appeal to new middle-class constituencies. The most famous such occasion occurred when Pauline Hanson won Oxley in 1996, scoring 48.6% of the primary vote as an independent after the Liberals disendorsed her for advocating the abolition of government assistance for Aborigines. The creation of Blair in the next redistribution did Hanson a poor turn, dividing her home turf between two electorates. Rather than recontest Oxley or (more sensibly) run for the Senate, Hanson chanced her arm at the new seat, but the major parties’ decision to direct preferences to each other may have sealed her doom. Hanson led the primary vote count with 36.0% against 25.3% for Labor and 21.7% for Liberal, but Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson pulled ahead of Labor on minor party preferences and defeated Hanson by 3.3% on Labor preferences.

Thompson went on to absorb most of the disappearing One Nation vote in 2001, more than doubling his primary vote without improving his two-party margin over Labor. A redistribution ahead of the 2004 election clipped this by 1.8%, but he went on to handsomely consolidate his position with a 4.5% swing. In 2007 the Liberals targeted Blair as part of its “firewall” strategy, a key element of which was a risky decision to fund a $2.3 billion Ipswich Motorway bypass at Goodna in the neighbouring electorate of Ryan. This proved of little use, with Labor picking up a decisive swing of 10.2% which typified the shift of blue-collar voters back to Labor on the back of WorkChoices.

Labor’s winning candidate was Shayne Neumann, a family lawyer and partner in the Brisbane firm Neumann & Turnour and member of the state party’s Labor Unity/Old Guard faction. His LNP opponent at the coming election will be Teresa Harding, who is “director of the F-111 Disposal and Aerial Targets Office” at the RAAF Base Amberley.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,255 comments on “Seat of the week: Blair”

Comments Page 39 of 46
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  2. Woohoo!!
    http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/qld-war-breaks-out-between-newman-palmer-20120813-243uw.html
    [Mr Newman’s comments came after Mr Palmer said the government’s program of public sector job cuts wouldn’t put a dent in the state’s debt, and the premier needed to focus on growth.

    “We’ve got a whole government policy which relies on cutting and putting people out of work,” Mr Palmer told ABC Radio on Monday.

    A clearly angry Mr Newman quickly fired back.]

  6. victoriua@1861,

    David Manne @david_manne 7m
    About to be briefed by the Australian Govt’s #ExpertPanel on #asylumseekers re their report

    David bleedin’ Manne gets his own private briefing by the Expert Panel on Asylum seekers? Why? So he can start preparing for his next High Court challenge? I don’t get it?

  7. Geez, political novice Newman is sunk. Political lightweight Baillieu is missing asleep, feared drowned. And the one with real political experience, O’Farrell has taken a few hits from waves but is still cruising.

  8. Well, regardless of what Houston comes up with, I think we know the Coalition response. Might be a smart move for Gillard to just deal them out of the negotiations. A simple, “The Coalition refuse to negotiate on the issue, so we see no point talking with them on it,” might suffice. There will be questions from the press over that of course, to which the simple response would be, “Scott Morrison has stated that even if our policy was identical to theirs they wouldn’t vote for it. They’re not approaching the issue in good faith. Until they do, there’s no point talking to them about it.”

    Talk to the Greens again. Attempt to find some common ground. Make it clear that, despite any bleating from the opposition, the way processing works now is acceptable (though not ideal) as a stop-gap measure, and that it’s in the hands of the Greens to work with the ALP to find a way to prevent boats coming.

    We’re about a month or so away, I’d say, from the the ALP being able to say, “We’ll find a way to pass good and proper legislation on asylum seekers the way we have with carbon pricing, the NBN and the mining tax.” Can’t say it quite yet, but it’s getting closer.

  11. [Paul Bongiorno ‏@PaulBongiorno
    Tony Abbott flying back from Cape York will be briefed around midday. He could be in for a big win.]

    I can’t see how, unless the committee recommends onshore processing.

    If it opts for a trial of Nauru, it will be a BIG win for the government ultimately IMHO.

  13. [I can’t see how, unless the committee recommends onshore processing.]
    WTF? How would that be a win for Abbott?

    [If it opts for a trial of Nauru, it will be a BIG win for the government ultimately IMHO.]
    WTF? How would that be any sort of win for the government when the government has opposed Nauru?

  15. If Nauru comes into play then surely David Manne will launch an action in the High Court as one of the rulings was the AS should be able to find work. Where on Nauru could they do that?

  16. Catmomma,
    Just joined Twitter (properly) and put you and a couple of others here as being followed. I got a message from you that I can’t read or respond to (something about Tweet Twit). Do you know anything about this?
    I’m pretty computer literate but I’m having real trouble getting my head around some of this…

  17. The Greens Science and Technology policy measures:

    The Australian Greens will:

    (1) institute a funding program for scientific research that specifically addresses community needs and national goals.
    Additional costs. Additional bureaucracy. Say, $50 million a year times four for forward estimates of $200 million.
    (2) protect the right of academics to develop and maintain a research career.
    What ‘right’ would that be? How would it be ‘protected? Additional regulation. Additional protection for incompetent academics.
    (3) increase funding to expand the research capacity of Australian universities.
    Additional costs. Say, $50 million a year times four for forward estimates of $200 million.
    (4) increase the proportion of research funding allocated to pure research and research for the public good.
    Extra bureaucracy. Decreased applied research such as that on cures for cancer.
    (5) prioritise funding for research into alternative energy technologies with the aim of developing competitive energy techniques with zero carbon emissions.
    This is applied research and therefore contradicts (4) above.
    (6) require the role of Chief Scientist to be a full time position and any applicant to be subject to a stringent conflict of interest test.
    Fine.
    (7) increase funding to the Australian Research Council and abolish the capacity for the Minister to veto board decisions.
    Additional funding, say $50 million a year times four over forward estimates of $200 million. I do hope that the ARC does not disobey either of (4) or the contradictory (5). Because the minister will not be able to stop them either way.
    (8) create a Sustainability Commission to develop and implement sustainable industry strategies across all industry sectors, including a review of the Environmental Industry Action Agenda program.
    Implement with what, exactly? Say $50 million times four gives forward estimates of $200 million.
    (9) refocus the CSIRO and CRCs back to public interest research and restore sufficient public funding to the CSIRO to allow it to conduct world-class research.
    Partial rehash of (4) above but partially contradictory of (5) above. Additional funding for CSIRO, say $50 million a year times four gives forward estimates of $200 million.
    (10) regulate to ensure that chemicals which are manufactured in nanoparticle form are treated as new chemicals for the purpose of checking environmental and health safety.
    Additional regulations. Additional bureaucracy. Additional costs to industry. Additional costs to consumers.
    (11) require organisations producing or importing more than 0.1kg of manufactured nanoparticles in a year to disclose information on the physical and chemical properties, toxicological data and methods of manufacture and use.
    Additional regulations. Additional bureaucracy. Additional costs to industry. Additional costs to consumers.
    (12) introduce mandatory labelling of consumer and industrial products that contain free manufactured nanoparticles.
    Additional regulations. Additional bureaucracy. Additional costs to industry. Additional costs to consumers. ensure mandatory notification to all workers who may face occupational exposure to manufactured nanoparticles.
    (13) fund research into nanotechnology and its environmental and health impacts.
    Say $5 million a year times four gives forward estimates of $20 million.

    (14) involve the community in decisions about the safe development of new technologies.
    What does ‘involve’ mean? Consultation? Actual Civil Society-type decision making? Tyranny of the interested? Additional costs. Additional delays. Additional COL impacts.
    (15) encourage government use of open-source software and require the use of open and publicly documented file format
    Fine
    (16) regulate to ensure that network neutrality is maintained on the internet.
    Fine. Additional regulations. Additional bureaucracy.
    (17) investigate opportunities to limit the growing concentration of nanotechnology intellectual property rights, especially in applications where knowledge is utilised for food production, or in humanitarian purposes (eg healthcare, water treatment).
    (18) Say, $1 million a year times four gives forward estimates of $4 million.
    Summary: In most ways this is the usual melange of Greens policy measures. Typically, prioritisation is confused. There is the usual focus on campaign-style hobby horses, in this case, nanotechnology gets quite a run. There is the usual resistance to research being applied to industry, resource or agricultural outcomes and the usual active support for research being applied to nothing much or to renewable energy. There is the usual numerous additional spending. I have put some figures in. If the Greens wish to put some other figures in, they are welcome. My suggested come to $1,000,024,000 over forward estimates. There is the usual utter lack of revenue identified to offset the spending. As usual, there is plethora of additional regulations, bureaucrats, and community ‘involvement’ in decision making.

    The Sky Fair spending number generator and the magic pudding get the usual hiding.

  18. [WTF? How would that be any sort of win for the government when the government has opposed Nauru?]

    Haven’t you worked it out yet Showson. Nauru is NOT goung to work. Once that is demonstrated Abbott loses his trump card and his AS policy is in tatters.

  19. Poroti and Leroy – the posts re supposed Newman vs Palmer “war” is in my view just a smokescreen. Newman is trying to look independent of his benefactor. I don’t believe it for a minute.

  21. [Geez, political novice Newman is sunk. Political lightweight Baillieu is missing asleep, feared drowned. And the one with real political experience, O’Farrell has taken a few hits from waves but is still cruising.]

    I have said recently that of all the current Liberal premiers, BOF stands the best chance of lasting beyond two terms. Barnett will most likely retire at the end of his govt’s second term. Baillieu will be lucky to stay in office next time, and Newman continues to show what a lightweight he is.

  22. [Latika Bourke ‏@latikambourke
    The Malaysian High Commissioner to Australia is fed up with the way his country’s record on Human Rights and refugees is being discussed. ]

  23. [ the posts re supposed Newman vs Palmer “war” is in my view just a smokescreen. Newman is trying to look independent of his benefactor. I don’t believe it for a minute.]

    Lynchpin – I reckon you’re on the money there. It is all so confected. Newman is looking to get some traction as a good guy against big money. Bit late for that tho.

  24. Apologies for the long post

    Latika Bourke @latikambourke 11s
    Malaysian High Commissioner stresses the asylum seeker swap was decided after close consultation with the UNHCR and IOM. #asylum
    View details ·
    Latika Bourke @latikambourke 50s
    Malaysian High Commissioner says the tarnishing of his country’s record by Politicans and the media is ‘uncalled for.’ #asylum
    View details ·
    Latika Bourke @latikambourke 2m
    Salman Ahmad ‘I am very concerned with the sustained negative portrayal of my country in the [Australian] Parliament.’ #asylum
    View details ·
    Latika Bourke @latikambourke 3m
    In a letter obtained by the ABC, Malaysia’s High Commissioner to Aust.says there’s been ‘widespread characterisation’ of Malaysia’s record.
    View details ·
    Latika Bourke @latikambourke 4m
    The Malaysian High Commissioner to Australia is fed up with the way his country’s record on Human Rights and refugees is being discussed.
    View details ·
    Latika Bourke @latikambourke 24m
    @alsotheabyss $149 is not that expensive is it?
    View conversation ·
    Latika Bourke @latikambourke 25m
    Federal Government says today is a test for Tony Abbott to demonstrate his respect for the Independent ctte’s report on #asylum.
    View details ·
    Latika Bourke @latikambourke 26m
    Anthony Albanese ‘but it’s very clear that we do need a policy that works. It’s clear that we need to listen to the experts.’
    View details ·
    Latika Bourke @latikambourke 27m
    Anthony Albanese ‘That’s something that I’ve done. It’s been a difficult issue.I come very much from a humanitarian position…’ #asylum
    View details ·
    Latika Bourke @latikambourke 27m
    Anthony Albanese ‘You’ve got a responsibility to deal with the world as it is rather than as you would like it to be.’ #asylum
    View details ·
    Latika Bourke @latikambourke 28m
    Anthony Albanese ‘we’ve all had to compromise in the face of what is occurring.’ #asylum
    View details ·
    Latika Bourke @latikambourke 28m
    Cabinet Minister Anthony Albanese ‘It is time for [the Greens] to put aside their ideological blinkers.’ #asylum

  28. I’d be surprised if the pollies were there at all. The report needs to be seen to be impartial for it to work to Labor’s benefit.

  34. Thanks for the link to the letter Vic. Fairly forthright language. Do you know the context of why it was sent to that particular Senator?? Was he particularly obnoxious towards the Malaysians??

  36. [Recommendation 2 cont. – that the Humanitarian intake be increased to 27 000 over 5 years and focussed on flows from SE Asia. (oppn policy.)]

  37. […O’Farrell has taken a few hits from waves but is still cruising]

    Ask him how his choo-choos are going. Last I heard they were still a black line on a map and were going to make the punters change at Epping. One day, that is. Also, he is doing the sensible (not) thing in making the tunnel suitable for single deckers only – to save money, the only thing Libs understand – and therefore incompatible with the rest of the network.

    Of course, he wants the feds to pay for the whole thing, just as he wants the feds to pay for 80% of the remaining Pacific Hwy upgrade. Remember this one? He was going to bring it all forward for his cocky mates. But he doesn’t want to pay for it.

    It’s one thing being loyal to your constituency, ie the Hills District Devil Dodgers, but he is being utterly stupid about it. The whole idea of completing the Parramatta – Epping link was to allow two routes from the west into the city, meaning that:
    1) More capacity for other western lines (Liverpool/Campbelltown via Granville)
    2) Less trains required to double back from North Sydney and beyond (as about half would be coming from that direction via the new link)

    Labor made the mistake of promising the NW link but sensibly backed off when it became clear that it could not be done without a second harbour crossing. Big bucks. They tried a half arsed metro solution that also fell over, benefitting no one but Back Door Benny Elias. But at least they identified the problem. Fat Bazza is just ploughing ahead with an unsuitable solution. The only saving grace is that he can’t get anyone to pay for it. Media involvement? As usual, nil.

  40. [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 40s
    Recommendation 3 – support regional cooperation framework. 4. Bilateral cooperation on asylum seekers issues with Indonesia urgently.]
    View details ·

  41. Amazing. Guess what the Oz-WA medicos dealing with diabetes Type I have “just” worked out?

    [The researchers reviewed every new case of type 1 diabetes in Western Australia over 25 years, finding that while the illness was on the rise, it was doing so with an even flow of peaks and troughs…

    “We don’t really know what the triggers are. There are probably multiple triggers, including environmental factors such as viruses and toxins,” he said. “There have been increases in allergies at the same time (as type 1 diabetes has increased), so it may reflect similar underlying causes.

    When his team compared the pattern in West Australia with similar research done overseas, they found it to be “almost identical” to a pattern found in northern England …

    “There is not a common understanding that there are clearly environmental factors at play,” he said…

    “It’s complex. Viruses could be implicated but there might be factors such as chemicals and environmental pollutants or who knows what else,” he said.]

    Viruses, like bad influenza, glandular fever & others which cause high fevers (inc those leading to raised C Protein-reactive levels), perhaps?

    Environmental pollutants like organo-chloride insecticides, inc residual levels thereof, eh?

    So where have you read that before?

    Perhaps on PB (& other blogs & boards) where I’ve been posting the original research, 1st stage replication & 2nd stage replication studies of European (mainly German) research for at least 5 years?

    In fact, findings of both sets of replication studies were published in Oz papers (inc/ only Fairfax), because they, being in English, are among the studies I’ve cited (with links). So why were NES Continental studies not considered – given they were available in English? Are we still intrinsically that anglophone-centric?

    BTW, there’s also a link to synthetic perfumes – still used endemically in everything from Channel No5 (the original synthetic) to scented toilet paper rolls – although the most significant link has been to Europe’s very worrying decline in male sperm production.

    Jesus wept – for very good reasons!

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