Petrie covers a narrow strip of Brisbane’s northern suburbs from Carseldine north to Burpengary. This includes three distinct areas: at the centre, the Redcliffe Peninsula; further north along the coast, Deception Bay and the developing suburb of North Lakes; and, on the southern side of Pine River which separates the Moreton Bay local government area from Brisbane, the suburbs of Bracken Ridge, Fitzgibbon and Carseldine. The redistribution before the 2010 election added the Deception Bay area (previously in Longman) and transferred coastal suburbs at the southern end to Lilley, which boosted the Labor margin by 2.1%.
The electorate was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1949 and held consistently by the Liberals until 1983, barring a surprise defeat in 1961. It again changed hands from Labor to Liberal in 1984 and back again in 1987. Gary Johns held the seat for Labor for the next three terms, until the Queensland Labor wipeout of 1996 powered a 9.8% swing to Liberal candidate Teresa Gambaro. Gambaro’s margin was reduced to 0.8% when the elastic snapped back to Labor by 7.5% in 1998, but she was strengthened by successive swings of 2.7% in 2001 and 4.4% in 2004. Gambaro had a 7.9% buffer going into the 2007 election, but it was not enough to save her from a 9.5% swing to Labor’s Yvette D’Ath, who had previously been an official with the Right faction Australian Workers Union. Gambaro was back at the 2010 election, when she unseated Labor’s Arch Bevis in Brisbane.
A Liberal National Party preselection last weekend was won by Luke Howarth, managing director of Sandgate Pest Control and a past candidate for the state seat of Sandgate (which is actually located over the boundary in Lilley). Howarth prevailed out of a preselection field of 10, of whom the presumed front-runner had been John Connolly, former Wallabies coach and unsuccessful state candidate for Nicklin, who had the endorsement of John Howard.
MTBW
Probably the two main reasons for are the ability to (1) choose your specialists and (2) the timing. The main argument against is that it costs you three times: you pay by way of tax, you pay by way of premiums, and you pay the gap which can be fairly large.
[When the NDIS matures (say in 2050), the net cost is estimated to be $4.4 billion.]
I most sincerely hope that, long before 2050, stem-cell research will have redressed the genetic defects, illnesses and injuries which create the need for the NDIS.
The biggest savings our nation could make in the long term would be to pour federal and state money into appropriate stem-cell research.
MTBW
Private health insurance only covers you for hospital admissions. In general, it’s good if you need elective surgery or have a chronic illness which requires fairly frequent hospital admissions.
For lots of healthy people, it’s more cost-effective to have no health insurance, or have a fairly high excess (so lower premiums) or self-insure (ie save up the money you would have paid in insurance and spent if if you need your gall bladder taken out).
There is a site called iselect which lets you compare options for cover. My PA often recommends it to patients who have insurance which doesn’t fit their needs.
Couldn’t resist
Barack Obama 91%
Jill Stein 80%
Stewart Alexander 78%
Ron Paul 19%
Mitt Romney 8%
Democratic 91%
Green 80%
Libertarian 27%
Republican 8%
Pretty well fits my self-image, so I’m happy!
Thanks bemused and rua
I saw a specialist yesterday and on my way out stopped at the desk to ask what I owed for the consultation. The lady behind the desk said “nothing you are on a pension”.
I see another specialist on Wednesday and will see what happens there.
Bemused I understand exactly what you mean by the “fear factor”. It just seem to me a waste of close to a thousand dollars a year.
[Hospitals should stop doing this and simply get you to sign over any benefits from your private insurance. That would get more funds into the public system.]
Agree!
The Olympic opening ceremony; a tiny little island off the west of Europe subtly reminding us all that they are the architects of the modern world.
Boer
My excess is $500.
bemused
When my OH was in hospital before Christmas he was taken to a public hospital as that had the best treatment for suspected stroke. Before he was discharged, the staff asked if he would allow the hospital to claim his accommodation as that is covered by his med insurance.
So they did get some money – everybody happy.
MTBW
When I had pneumonia last year I was taken to Emergency, where they were no beds available for two days. My private insurance gave me a week in private hospital. I had been just about to cancel it as I’d never used it, but suddenly realised its usefulness.
My US candidate quiz results:
Green 94%; Dem 86%; Libertarian 56% ; and WTF??? Repugs 16%
Some of this obviously because Green policy in US aspires towards what the ALP has achieved and defended in Australia – universal health care in particular.
In the US I’d actually be voting Obama unhesitatingly – in a first past the post system, support for a Green candidate instead of Obama might as well be a vote for Romney, just as Nader’s stupid vanity in running against Gore helped give us GW Bush and thus the illegal Iraq war, undermining of global effort on climate change, little things like that.
[Boerwar
Posted Saturday, July 28, 2012 at 5:49 pm | Permalink
…
The Greens will promise full support for the NDIS but this promise lacks funding integrity.]
Do you really think that anyone is taken in by this sort of bullshit.
WHY ARE YOU FASCISTS ALL GETTING OBAMA HIGHER THAN STEIN? WHAT IS THIS I DON’T EVEN
@152
I hope so. I have Strabismus (6th Nerve palsy type), which has no known cure at the moment. I was told by my optometrist that an operation using stem cells might be able to cure it in the future.
I would be delighted to undergo a test operation to cure it if I could.
Marrickville Mauler, I am pretty much the same. I do ask though: If you were a voter in a deep blue state like Vermont or Rhode Island, or a deep red state like Alabama or Oklahoma, would you still give your (imaginary) vote to Obama or, knowing it wouldn’t be a spoiler, would you give Stein or Alexander a go, as support?
MTBW @ 155
I think this story about choice of specialist has little validity.
Do you know many specialists and could you make an informed choice?
You usually go to whoever your GP refers you to.
Try getting 3 quotes 😉
When I had my kidney stone removed I was a public patient. Got in straight away and fairly prompt surgery after Plan A (letting it pass) didn’t work. Operation was done by Urology Registrars in a major teaching hospital and went just fine.
If they have the discipline to do it, young people might well be better off put money away on a fortnightly basis into a sinking fund and then just go with Medicare.
Thanks Dio
[or self-insure (ie save up the money you would have paid in insurance and spent if if you need your gall bladder taken out).]
That’s what I was thinking and I will look at the iselect site.
lizzie
I was taken in through emergency as well and could not complain at all about the treatment and care I received.
[I had been just about to cancel it as I’d never used it, but suddenly realised its usefulness.]
There is the quandry!
CM # 163, I’d need to be very sure it would only be symbolic! A safe State (or seat ) that everyone thinks is safe can become unsafe because of that. I’m sure there are people in my own area who vote Green as a symbolic thing without realising it could actually deprive us of Albo
What happens if you do not have a major teaching hospital near? Health depends on where you live.
America is a weird place. If you are poor and can’t afford a health fund you can go and die in a ditch. If you can afford a health fund then that fund can decide they won’t fund your health care and they too can tell you to go and die in a ditch. Even the Christians think that health care should only be for those blessed with a good income and the ability to pay. Those who are not so blessed can also go and find that ditch.
Finally they get a government and a president who want to fix that huge problem and the country goes wild with hate.
When the Obamacare debate was going on there was news footage of so-called Christians kneeling in the street, kissing Bibles and praying in an effort to get God to stop the legislation. He didn’t listen. Apparently God wanted Obamacare but that didn’t stop his earthly representatives. Even the Catholic Bishops were against it. The misguided fools thought it was going to destroy their religious freedom as outlined here
http://www.christianpost.com/news/new-yorkers-join-religious-freedom-rally-to-protest-obamacare-76344/
Where did Christ say that health care was to be only for those who could afford to pay for it?
Never forget that John Howard was a great admire of the American ‘pay up or die’ system. Abbott will do all he can to bring about Howard’s unfulfilled agenda to take us all back to those Golden Years before we had Medicare. That Twitter rumour the other day about Abbott abolishing Medicare may have sounded daft but it does have some truth to it.
[Shorten might have to live to a ripe old age to be PM.]
Shorten is not Prime Minister material.
Nothing against the guy at all. He’s likeable, super-smart, extremely competent, even brilliant.
But there’s something missing from him whenever I see him on the telly or hear him on radio. A lack of fire.
bemused
[I think this story about choice of specialist has little validity.
Do you know many specialists and could you make an informed choice?
You usually go to whoever your GP refers you to.]
Agree it was all arranged around me and I am more than pleased with the specialist I saw yesterday. We are so lucky to have the system that we have.
As with all insurance.
BB,
“Shorten is not Prime Minister material”.
Cache that one under famous last lines.
BB
You and I do not agree on much but:
[Shorten is not Prime Minister material]
I so agree with you on the above.
The likes of Howe are even further back in the queue.
row row aus
rua
[As with all insurance.]
True!
bemused
[
I think this story about choice of specialist has little validity.]
I agree.
ru
[What happens if you do not have a major teaching hospital near? Health depends on where you live.]
That’s true. It’s very tough for people in rural areas who need quite a bit of health care. The services just aren’t there.
[Shorten is not Prime Minister material.]
Possibly. But I certainly think he is electable.
Schnappi
The girls are looking good early in the heat.
ruawake @ 168
A good point, but anyone in a capital city is in much the same position as I am. I was transferred from the hospital where I was first admitted to another with a Urology Department.
If you were in the country and the nearest hospital couldn’t do the operation I expect you would be transferred to where it could be done.
Dear ABC.
Fraser Island is off The Fraser Coast, it is a couple of hours drive away from The Sunshine Coast, it is like saying Batemans Bay is part of Wollongong. Idiots.
BK
yeah, working together well
BK
yeah, working together well
No Olympics for the Bushfire household tonight.
We’re watching a pristine hi-def copy of Casablanca tonight on the Big Screen.
Haven’t seen it for a year and need another fix.
BB
have that video , watch anytime, cheering on as a national emergancy
[I’m disappointed I scored so high as Repug!]
Ditto! Though I can’t work out the rating system. I had no idea who Jill Stein was & woudn’t vote for Ron Paul in a fit.
BB,
“Here’s looking at you, kid”.
Just can’t see it.
fredn
[Boerwar
Posted Saturday, July 28, 2012 at 5:49 pm | Permalink
…
The Greens will promise full support for the NDIS but this promise lacks funding integrity.
Do you really think that anyone is taken in by this sort of bullshit.]
Unlike the Greens I have been doing some back of the envelope costings of Greens policy measures. A policy measure is that part of the Greens’ policy statement that is meant to be implemented. I have been explicit with my assumptions. I have acknowledged that I am an amateur. That said:
Greens policy measures routinely add to bureaucracy, regulation, centralization and business costs. Program spending is increased across the board. The policy measures sometimes stop existing economic activity altogether. Other policy measures halt all growth in activity. The policy measures have no timing attached to them. Many, if not most, policy measures lack parameters which would enable those affected to make sound judgements about Green’s intentions or the impact of Greens policy measures on themselves.
My running tally demonstrated that the Greens budget is at least $80 billion in deficit over forward estimates. I did not do all the policy measures because it was utterly predictable what the rest would contain.
The fact is that the PBO would have to make numerous guess about what the Greens intend.
You appear to have a good nose for bullshit. My recommendation for you would be to go to the Greens policies and ask yourself five questions that would indicate whether the Greens policy measures have policy integrity:
(1) How much would this cost?
(2) When?
(3) Are revenues identified to cover the cost?
(4) Are savings identified to offset the cost?
(5) How would this policy measure affect those most affected?
The Greens are going to have to massage their policy measures significantly to meet at least one of them: ‘A balanced budget over the business cycle’.
citizens, citizens,
dave @ 175
Howes is not in Parliament and I hope he never is.
BB #170
I’m not a Shorten man either.
The next leader may not even be in the Parliament at the moment. 😉
Those girls rowed well within themselves
[“Here’s looking at you, kid”.]
I’m shocked, SHOCKED to discover that other Bludgers find Casablanca a great movie.
Whilst youse may be there at six, I’ll be there at ten.
After all, I have to round up the usual suspects.
Almost screen time: 7 watch.
[Howes is not in Parliament and I hope he never is.]
Ditto for me!
[Howes is not in Parliament and I hope he never is.]
He is obnoxious and thin-skinned. The Libs would eat him alive.
BW:
[Apart from leaving Australia defenceless against, for example, the Indonesians who are to receive delivery of 120 Su30s,]
Lol … It’s not as if anything Australia would be buying and maintaining would match that anyway. Unless they are invafing and occupying, what would be the point of attacking us. And what are they going to move troops with and how will they supply them & etc …
[the Greens have already spent all their savings and extra revenues by many tens of billions over forward estimates. ]
Nonsense. The policies you’ve been looking at are aspirational. Yes we’d like to get there, but if we ever got close to government we’d have to work out timelines and priorities and scope of program based on the actual resources available. That imposes its own constraints. The reality is that we have one member of the HoR and if we do well, may get a few more next time around, but we aren’t going to be writing state policy for some years yet. What we are discussing is a policy that migtht conceivably be implemented by one of the major parties, with the support of The Greens.
[The era of mining super profits and the best terms of trade we ever had, are gone, IMHO]
So you say and for all I know, you may be right. If you are certain though there is some beautiful money on offer in the commodity markets. Who wouldn’t go long on developing copper, iron ore, LPG in 2020 with money available as cheaply as it has ever been. Please advise your exposure so I can verify the inegrity of your long term commodity prediction. In the meantime, it is said that MRRT gave away about $70bn over the second decade of this century.
[The only question for us is whether it comes out of the GST, company tax, an additional mining tax, or income tax.]
or all of the above and one or two other measures.
Von Kirsdarke:
Your mention of presidential candidate for the Libertarian Party, Gary Johnson reminds me that Australia’s “War On Drugs” is said to be costing the country about $4bn per annum. Locking people up turns out to be very expensive. Waiving tax revenue and the proceeds of contraband drug sales is also costly.
Apart from Mr Johnson’s rather defiantly oppositional stance on climate change, and of course his broader opposition to public spending, support for education vouchers, his preference for inequality … oh dear …
Let’s just say that in some areas, he says some worthwhile things. Cutting the US military budget by 43% in the first year, giving Israel the flick, supporting gay marriage, ending the war on drugs and releasing its prisoners — all good stuff.
MTBW,
True story. My parents are staunch Liberals, so wanted to send me to Private School(I refused 🙂 ), have had Private Health Insurance all their lives.
My mother needed Urological surgery to fix a prolapsed womb and bladder problems. Of course she booked into the local Private Hospital. Asked her GP for a recommendation for a good Urologist to perform the surgery. Name duly provided.
Off she went to the Private Hospital for the surgery.
Surgery performed.
Mother did not seem to be recovering well. Blew up like a balloon.
Investigations hurriedly performed.
‘Good’ Urologist had sewn her Ureter to her back, blocking it and causing her to be unable to pass urine. Which then found it’s way around her body.
Mother needed to be rushed off to the local Public Hospital for emergency surgery.
Emergency surgery at Public Hospital saved mother’s life.
Goodness knows why but she still has Private Health Insurance!
Maybe it’s for the Aromatherapy. 😀
BW,
With the Greens, “It’s the Vibe”, mate.