Seat of the week: Petrie

Petrie covers a narrow strip of Brisbane’s northern suburbs from Carseldine north to Burpengary. This includes three distinct areas: at the centre, the Redcliffe Peninsula; further north along the coast, Deception Bay and the developing suburb of North Lakes; and, on the southern side of Pine River which separates the Moreton Bay local government area from Brisbane, the suburbs of Bracken Ridge, Fitzgibbon and Carseldine. The redistribution before the 2010 election added the Deception Bay area (previously in Longman) and transferred coastal suburbs at the southern end to Lilley, which boosted the Labor margin by 2.1%.

The electorate was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1949 and held consistently by the Liberals until 1983, barring a surprise defeat in 1961. It again changed hands from Labor to Liberal in 1984 and back again in 1987. Gary Johns held the seat for Labor for the next three terms, until the Queensland Labor wipeout of 1996 powered a 9.8% swing to Liberal candidate Teresa Gambaro. Gambaro’s margin was reduced to 0.8% when the elastic snapped back to Labor by 7.5% in 1998, but she was strengthened by successive swings of 2.7% in 2001 and 4.4% in 2004. Gambaro had a 7.9% buffer going into the 2007 election, but it was not enough to save her from a 9.5% swing to Labor’s Yvette D’Ath, who had previously been an official with the Right faction Australian Workers Union. Gambaro was back at the 2010 election, when she unseated Labor’s Arch Bevis in Brisbane.

A Liberal National Party preselection last weekend was won by Luke Howarth, managing director of Sandgate Pest Control and a past candidate for the state seat of Sandgate (which is actually located over the boundary in Lilley). Howarth prevailed out of a preselection field of 10, of whom the presumed front-runner had been John Connolly, former Wallabies coach and unsuccessful state candidate for Nicklin, who had the endorsement of John Howard.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,470 comments on “Seat of the week: Petrie”

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  1. Confessions:

    [Either the survey is dodgy, or the Greens in the US are immeasurably more sensible {conservative} than their Australian counterparts.]

    The whole “Overton Window” is several notches to the right of us in America.

    People called “extreme communist” are really socialists or even plain old radical liberals, slightly left-of-centre liberals are called socialists, centre right people are called liberals (or if they are Repugs, then RINOs*), conservatives are called moderates and hard core reactionaries are called conservatives. The Tea Party types are called patriots. I’m not surprised that the “Green” was a rather indeterminate colour in parts. Imagine having no view on Affirmative Action? Backing the midwest farming boondoggle? Backing NATO intervention in Sudan? Backing spending cuts to get a budget surplus when activity is weak? Not supporting a decent welfare system or single payer health care? Unbelievable.

    *Republicans in name only; One suspects that William F Buckley, Eisenhower and Teddy Roosevelt would all be RINOs today.

  2. CTar1
    Posted Saturday, July 28, 2012 at 2:10 pm | Permalink

    The trick is to extract from the states the actual amount they already spend on the same services and only impose any needed Federal tax to provide the additional service.

    This is what the argy bargy was all about this week at COAG.

    The tory States particularly want the Feds to take full financial responsibility for NDIS while they quietly withdraw and retain the funding they already provide in this area.

  3. gianni
    Posted Saturday, July 28, 2012 at 2:33 pm | Permalink

    Spending $16.35 a week on the disabled certainly beats throwing away $1,100,000,000 of taxpayers’ funds like we did when the Super Seaprite replacement helicopter project was abandoned.

    So does this other example of howard & costello using taxpayers money without much thought –

    Former treasurer Mr Costello told Hartcher: ”It was 1999. Neither Howard nor I had much of an idea of what a greenhouse gas was, let alone how to abate it … Trying to co-operate without blowing the financial position, I whispered to Howard, ‘Offer her four hundred.’

    ”’Okay,’ he said. ‘$400 million.’

    ”She accepted. I tapped him on the shoulder and whispered in his ear, ‘That’s not what I meant. I meant we should offer her $400,000′.”

    There was no way to retract the offer.

    ”It was how $400 million got expended by mistake.”

  4. William

    [Do you know the answer to that, BW, or are you hoping I might? Because I don’t. Area of electorate info is easy to come by – length of boundary, not so much.]

    No I don’t. It was idle speculation. I was thinking that it might be an objective criterion to apply against suspected gerrymandering.

  5. It’s always nice when you can tell the good guys from the bad guys in a conflict, but most of the time, it’s pretty murky and in Syria, as the Assad regimes tanks close on Aleepo, it’s impossible to tell. I’m hoping death and injury is minimal. I daresay I’ll be disappointed.

    That said this is an interesting development

    The regime is apparently winking at a Kurdish state on the north. That has annoyed the hell out of Turkey, which suppresses its own Kurds and even the use of the Kurdish language — describing them as terrorists.

  6. [Schnappi
    Posted Saturday, July 28, 2012 at 4:34 pm | Permalink
    Nick is abbott, nick is of course nutty]
    You took the words right out of my mouth.

    Am trying to think of the niece’s name.
    That’d be Michaela Cash!

    And the smart kid on the block?
    Michael?

  7. [Doane and Ashby have pretty much sealed their fate, stacking safeway shelves.]

    [Or picking strawberries]

    That is pf course if anyone wants to give them a fresh start after they get out of Boggo Road Wacol Prison.

  8. fb

    [No prizes for guessing what I’d be cutting … but that aside … the net impact on revenue would probably be a good deal smaller than that because in many cases, the support would facilitate greater workforce participation either by the disabled themselves or their carers. Of course, to the extent that new services are offered and these are taxable, there is revenue clawback.]

    I hope that whoever costed it at $6 billion a year looked at both the offset and revenue implications.

  9. My results:

    Jill Stein 83%
    Obama 79%
    Stewart Alexander 68%
    Ron Paul 37%
    Mitt Romney 6%

    Greens 83%
    Obama 79%
    Libertarian 55%
    Repugs 6%

  10. [That is pf course if anyone wants to give them a fresh start after they get out of Boggo Road Wacol Prison.]

    I seriously doubt whether they would go to prison.

    Where they’re going could be a lot worse.

  11. Boerwar
    Posted Saturday, July 28, 2012 at 2:57 pm | Permalink

    Mr Abbott is being cagey about the NDIS. He has already said that the Coalition will only pay for the NDIS if they can afford it. They have some sort of monster budget black hole, so they will not be able to afford it. There is no way the Coalition would support an increase in either the company tax or income tax to cover the NDIS. They will already have cut programs massively, so it is unlikely they would find the extra program cuts to fund the $6 billion per annum.

    So, forget the states, forget the Coalition.

    The last thing abbott wants is for NDIS to become an election issue in 2013 or to be placed in a position where he is cornered into promising full implementation.

    He knows that he is being wedged, hence his so called *appeal* for a bi-partisan committee etc in order to defuse the ticking threat. This weeks kerfuffle with ted and BOF has shown that in spades.

    This is a great and worthy labor party reform and more power to its implementation pretty darn quick.

    Causing discomfort to abbott etc to boot is icing on the cake.

    Just when has abbott been prepared to deal with issues on a bi-partisan basis?

    Its all been the other way.

  12. I take it that everyone supports the NDIS as long as someone else pays for it. I am all for it on that basis as well.

    After all, we increasingly decrepit boomers are going to be disproportionate beneficiaries of it.

  13. [I can no longer watch My Family.

    Ben Harper reminds me of Brough.

    Urrgh.]

    Apparently Ben Harper is a Labour Party supporter in My Family. I thought that was interesting.

  14. Schnappi

    Seriously, they ran out of plot big time.

    Waste of space, like the last episode of Silent Witness

    Phewiiii. Dreadful.

  15. dave

    Labor wants to cut company tax, is actively reducting income tax, and has said it will not raise the GST.

    So, what would be the plan to find the $6 billion a year to fund the NDIS?

  16. My results:

    92% Democratic

    77% Green

    46% Libertarian

    30% Republican

    Which results I found apt. Especially as, from a Libertarian perspective, I have incorporated elements of Libertarian philosophy into social democratic mores to come up with a personal political compass which sees me sailing in waters where all boats should rise equally. Some boats may be bigger than others if one has exerted themselves as an entrepeneur and job creator and done well for themselves out of it. However, they must respect the environment and treat their employees as part of a co-operative which sees their business thrive and prosper, which also tends to maximise productivity and job satisfaction. A fair day’s pay for a fair day’s work is a must. No race to the bottom.

    A Libertarian perspective informs my tax take, such that I do not think that the State should give more than a basic amount for the Education of children, irrespective of whether they go to a Public or Private School. Though that amount should be generous, but targeted to provide for a well-rounded education. Not for swimming pools or rifle ranges. Parents can stump up for that out of their own pockets.

    I do not think that Private Health should get any government money at all. You want it, you pay for it. The government can use our taxes to provide a well-funded Public system.

    The electorate should always be polled in a referendum, quickly, before we commit national treasure and bodies to any war. I do believe some overseas commitment of our armed forces is a nett positive, eg Solomon Islands/Ramsi. Much as I hate to give Howard a tick for anything.

    Such policies would thus enable the government to be smaller and more flexible and able to respond better to changing circumstances and to the prevailing zeitgeist abroad in the country now which wants there to be less government intervention in our lives, not more. And lower taxes. Which I think my ideas would lead to. Certainly no need for increased taxes. Such that, for example, the federal government would more easily be able to fund an NDIS out of ‘general revenue’ (and maybe this goes to my 30% conservative stance 🙂 ), as it would no longer be funding people to buy Private Health Insurance or run Private Hospitals. Less money would be going to Private Schools. Less money would be committed to follies such as the Iraq War, as the people would never agree to it.

    However, as I know that I would never be able to convince the ‘Entitled Electorate’ to vote for this scenario, let alone get up in a pre-selection for any of our political parties, it shall just have to remain my little pipe dream of a lean, mean government machine with a big heart for the little guy, though not forgetting entirely to reward the successful with lower taxes than we have now. 🙂

  17. VK

    [Apparently Ben Harper is a Labour Party supporter in My Family. I thought that was interesting.]
    Didn’t know that. Is that where Labour/Labor has got the “never to be seen working” tag from?

  18. kezza2

    yeah Michael had a gay relationship, now think he is Bi, depends what season showing,have not watched for yonks

  19. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/there-are-no-votes-in-playing-politics-with-the-ndis/

    Follow this link if you want to be depressed by van Onselen’s interpretations.
    [No wonder some Labor members of federal caucus contacted me yesterday to express absolute shock that Gillard could turn down the chance to introduce a fully funded NDIS via a levy supported by the states.

    Some of them noted that Kevin Rudd would have done the deal. And Coalition MPs were quick to point out that John Howard would have done a deal too under these circumstances.]

  20. Abbott, what media does not show

    Gone Troppo Geek‏@geeksrulz

    Tony Abbott reacts to Victoria and NSW signing up to the #NDIS#auspol

  21. Here are the Productivity Commission stats. There is quite an interesting evolution of the costs and benefits. The $6.5 billion figures is net of current spending.

    [The Commission estimates that, after gradual implementation of the scheme, its net
    cost would be around $6.5 billion in 2018-19.
    – The annual gross cost of the NDIS in 2018-19 is estimated at $13.6 billion,
    comprising $11.8 billion in care and support (accommodation support, attendant
    care, day programs, respite, therapy and other supports), $580 million in aids
    and appliances, $120 million in home modifications, $80 million in transport and
    other costs (including tier 1 and tier 2 functions, disability support organisations,
    assessors and local area co-ordinators).
    – The direct offset to this gross cost in 2018-19 is estimated at $7.1 billion. This
    takes into account the current spending on people aged less than 65 years
    (comprising spending from the National Disability Agreement, Home and
    Community Care, residential and community aged care, aids and appliance
    schemes, transport taxi subsidy schemes and psychiatric disability community
    supports).
    • The annual cost of the scheme in 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 is estimated to be
    $10 million, $50 million and 550 million respectively, with service delivery
    commencing in 2014-15 at a net cost of $890 million. The net costs then increase
    over time to $6.5 billion in 2018-19.
    • When the NDIS matures (say in 2050), the net cost is estimated to be $4.4 billion.
    There will be savings in care and support through early interventions and
    community capacity building (for example, more people with a disability able to live
    in the community with intensive supports rather than in supported accommodation).
    A further offset is when the National Injury Insurance Scheme matures.]

  22. Boerwar@72,

    So, what would be the plan to find the $6 billion a year to fund the NDIS?

    Correct me if I’m wrong, however I thought the PM was asked that question at her press conference in Geelong the other day, and she replied wtte, that if, like the Coalition and Tony Abbott says repeatedly, we should take what the Productivity Commission recommended as our guide, then the funding would come by way of the States agreeing to give up State-based taxes such as Stamp Duty to the Commonwealth, and the Commonwealth would give them their NDIS funding.

  23. I think so, I haven’t watched all of the seasons yet, it might be more obvious when I do.

    According to wikipedia, Michael is a Conservative supporter. I suppose the Tories in the UK are more tolerant of LGBT issues than they are in Australia. Kenny Everett was a famous example of a gay Conservative supporter.

    The UK Comedy with political statements that stands out the most for me has to be the Goodies. Tim was the Conservative one, Graeme was the Liberal and Bill was the Labourite. Their stereotypes always made me laugh.

  24. [lizzie
    Posted Saturday, July 28, 2012 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/there-are-no-votes-in-playing-politics-with-the-ndis/

    Follow this link if you want to be depressed by van Onselen’s interpretations.

    No wonder some Labor members of federal caucus contacted me yesterday to express absolute shock that Gillard could turn down the chance to introduce a fully funded NDIS via a levy supported by the states.

    Some of them noted that Kevin Rudd would have done the deal. And Coalition MPs were quick to point out that John Howard would have done a deal too under these circumstances.]

    Well the ruined that play by refusing to put up a few million to run the test program.

  25. C@tmomma

    […then the funding would come by way of the States agreeing to give up State-based taxes such as Stamp Duty to the Commonwealth, and the Commonwealth would give them their NDIS funding.]

    Well, that means there would be less revenue being raised by the states and the territories, but I don’t spot any increased revenues to offset that on the part of the Commonwealth, nor do I see where the extra billions would be raised either.

    To get it from current arrangements to the full Monty NDIS, the full cost will be around $13 billion a year.

    IMHO, if GST and income tax stay the same, and company tax goes down, it is difficult to spot where the additional revenue is going to come from.

  26. Boerwar
    Posted Saturday, July 28, 2012 at 4:50 pm | Permalink

    dave

    Labor wants to cut company tax, is actively reducting income tax, and has said it will not raise the GST.

    So, what would be the plan to find the $6 billion a year to fund the NDIS?

    No matter what any Government does in the area of taxation, the corporate sector and the wealthy will always want more. Its a given.

    Swan and Gillard have responded to them exactly the right way by telling them they are going to have to give up something to get something and call for suggestions what existing concessions ought to be cut in order to fund any cuts.

    Comparatively Australia is not a high taxation country. Not including HK Singapore etc. What has to be taken into account is how much people, mainly family’s with young kids get back. This lowers to around mid K40k before families pay any tax.

    Also the vast bulk of tax is raised from people not corporates.

    Personally if there has to be a levy to pay for NDIS, I will pay it without whining etc.

    I think its probably within capacity over the economic cycle to funded NDIS from not giving back the extra money Governments make automatically from bracket creep.

    In any case it is arguable the last couple of general tax cuts should not have proceeded on an economic basis. They were political but then they always are.

    But I would be prepared to pay some more tax to get NDIS implemented.

  27. [Boerwar
    Posted Saturday, July 28, 2012 at 5:05 pm | Permalink

    IMHO, if GST and income tax stay the same, and company tax goes down, it is difficult to spot where the additional revenue is going to come from.]

    As some point in the politcal cycle you have to actually have a idea to campain on.

    My own view is it is an insurance scheme therefor it should be funded the same way as medicare, but we will have to wait and see won’t we.

  28. There’s still about 10 billion in fossil fuel subsidies each year – scrap them and you’ve virtually got NDIS and Gonski covered…and as a bonus you fast track switch to greener energies.

  29. C@tmomma @ 74

    My results:

    92% Democratic

    77% Green

    46% Libertarian

    30% Republican

    Quite an interesting mixture there.
    I was more polarised.

    89% Democratic

    81% Green

    20% Libertarian

    1% Republican

  30. fredn,

    What Gillard has demonstrated again is that she’s a better negotiator than everyone else in the room.

    She out negotiated the Premiers. She proven the whine of the MSM press through their useful idiots like PVO know sweet fa and that her colleagues allegedly phoning journos about how they would have done the deal are exposed as fools.

    Gillard knows when to hold them, knows when to fold em!

  31. GG

    Absolutely agree, and at times you have to hold your cards close to your chest, and this is when the journos makes absolute fools of themselves. As for Rudd, he has been doing so since he lost the top gig. Managed to get himself busted to back bencher and he still hasn’t worked it out.

  32. GGrowler

    Ah, but PvO says that she only did it to catch votes, not really because she ‘believes’ in it. And he’s grumbling that Shorten should get more credit.

    Can’t ever please PvO and his little elves!!

  33. Personally, I’ve no political objection to increasing taxes or their scope in a non regressive way to fund things such as the NDIS. I daresay that the government would have no problem getting Greens support for reconfiguring the MRRT to take more out of mining super profits.

    Of course, there are all sorts of places where funding could be cut — elite sport (which could also be taxed appropriately) — defence, private health insurance, private schools.

    And why was the indexation of petrol prices abandoned? Why are we handing out subsidies for fossil fuel use? Indeed, why is fossil fuel cost even fully deductible as a business expense?

    Why are we processing irregular maritime arrivals at great expense on Christmas Island? Wouldn’t it make more sense to process them in the cities and get them ASAP out into the workforce?

  34. [Coalition MPs were quick to point out that John Howard would have done a deal too under these circumstances.]

    Yes of course he would have.

    If only Howard had had the numbers in parliament and a favourable budget position and economic climate like labor. Howard would have done so much, brought in a NDIS, a NBN, more funding for health and education, more restrictions on smoking and alcohol.

    Howward never had an easy time of it like gillard

  35. I’m probably surprised at my earlier result because I consider myself more a liberal than a leftist. I am willing to bet it was my answers on healthcare which tipped me over to Stein.

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