The latest Essential Research survey has the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred, their lead now at 57-43, with both major parties steady on the primary vote (49% for the Coalition and 31% for Labor) and the Greens down one to 10%. The poll also includes Essential’s monthly leader approval ratings, which have Tony Abbott gaining three points on approval to 35% and down one on disapproval to 53%, with Julia Gillard steady on approval at 32% and up two on disapproval to 58%. Abbott has also nudged ahead on preferred prime minister, gaining from 37-37 to 38-37.
Further questions find broad hostility to the Greens, whose “performance in federal parliament” is rated as good by 17% and poor by 47%, with 53% rating their policies “too extreme” and 26% “representing the views of many voters”. There are two questions on Julian Assange which seem to suggest sympathy for him has declined since March: 28% now believe the support he has received from the government has been appropriate, compared with 22% in March, while those who think otherwise (though this could potentially include those who think it has provided too much support) is down from 36% to 33%.
Preselection stuff:
• The WA Liberals have confirmed the preselection of Christian Porter in Pearce, ahead of 24-year-old trademark lawyer Alex Butterworth and local party members Rod Henderson and Bill Crabtree. Gary Adshead of The West Australian reports the winning margin was 39 to 15, which I take to refer to Porter’s and Butterworth’s totals in the first and final round. UPDATE: The Australian reports Porter and Butterworth were the only two candidates, another two who had been mentioned having withdrawn.
• The Sunshine Coast Daily reports a field of nine candidates has nominated for the LNP preselection for Fisher on July 29: “Stephen Ainscough, Mr Brough, Richard Bruinsma, James McGrath, Graeme Mickelberg, Alan Nielsen, Daniel Purdie, Peta Simpson and Andrew Wallace”.
• The Nationals have preselected Matthew Fraser, owner of two Hungry Jacks stores in the Tweed Heads are, as their candidate for the north coast NSW seat of Richmond. Fraser won a preselection vote over Alan Hunter, a Myocum beef farmer and the candidate in 2010, Scott Cooper, a university lecturer, and John McMahon, a Tweed Heads newsagency owner.
• The Cessnock Advertiser reports the Nationals have preselected Michael Johnsen, Scone businessman and former mayor of Upper Hunter, to run against Joel Fitzgibbon in Hunter (margin 12.5%). Johnsen also ran in the seat in 1996 and 2010.
• Bevan Shields of the Illawarra Mercury reports five union leaders have publicly endorsed Stephen Jones, Labor’s member for Throsby, as Right forces led by state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay marshall forces for a preselection challenge. The unions concerned include the Right faction Australian Workers Union, together with the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, Australian Services Union, Maritime Union of Australia and United Services Union.
BW:
[Australia has two narcissist/sociopaths: Rudd and Abbott.]
I suspect we have quite a few more than that. It’s just that only a tiny minority of them have managed to become directly or indirectly enabled by the major stakeholders informing the political class.
I’d be surprised if the vast majority of our MPs and CEOs and those with realistic prospects of becoming CEOs weren’t narcissistic sociopaths. Some are more skilled than others at hiding it when it would be counter-productive, but our systems of power greatly privilege it.
[The nation is at the mercy of a couple of nutters. The normal rules of reason, sense, judgement, emotion, values and principles do not apply.]
The nation is now at the mercy of those pulling the strings of those formally deciding which narcissitic sociopath will sit in the big chair, or manipulate the non-narcisisstic sociopath who for a time may get to sit in it.
That is as it always has been, and for the foreseeable future, almost certainly will be.
[Before Parliament resumes next month, members of the Labor caucus have in essence to choose between two loyalties: to the Prime Minister, or to their party and their country. ]
I think the reality is…..members of Labor caucus have in essense to choose between two loyalties” to factional mafia power brokers, or to their party and their country.
Since 2010 it has been the vicious, spiteful mafia like right wing that has been throwing Labor around like a rag doll. Gilllard has simply been their stopper in the bottle
Ian so am i . i am simpleton to, we believe in good thing and good people, not gossip not intend, trust of those we love and give trust.
the world for us is seen through different glasses not power .
only wanting the best.
But i take it further i actully beleive in life after death guardian angels and all that crap
. life a journey when you reach a certain time you look back and see the road that led you there.
Julia road is a hard road, but a wonder road of giving and caring.
rudd had his chance he blew it by is actions, His road may have been mean to keep going but he let his actions get in the way of the road;.
he lost his chance to shine., now want its it back.
Instead of learning to shine, by being supportive of the PM no he wants to be boss.
He was given his chance by the universe and fate but stuffed it.
Bemused is typical of the cynics in this world my oh was once but i have a friend who is clairvoyant and she told him many things about past things she could never have known about..
now he not so cynical
things happen for a reason its never just a coincidence
now rudd find himself on the outside looking in, he could of been FM but no thats not the top job,he is a driven person, if i had his heart complaint it be happy to settle for a peacful life.
bemused
If you have to ask what adult behaviour is, then I’m afraid no one can help you.
Beautiful day in Melbourne today and I hope that augurs well for a Labor victory in the Melbourne By-election.
It was even a joy to be out in the sunshine listening to the birds while hanging out the washing – my chore so the wife can have a good sleep in, something I am incapable of.
I guess it’s hard to refute circular logic. It always has been. And that is what we are battling here.
It goes a little something like this:
The polls are bad. Therefore something needs to be done to improve the polls.
I know what that is.
I guarantee that the polls will improve if the party does what I think is correct, because you can’t disprove it.
Therefore, because you cannot disprove what I assert unless we change the leader,
We must change the leader.
Rinse and repeat ad nauseum.
With the aid of a media hell bent on mischief-making to satisfy, not the valid position that the ‘new’ leader is a superior choice, but to back in their master’s choice. Tony Abbott.
Have fun getting smashed around the park by that conniving media guys. Enjoy your 5 minutes of political sunshine with Sunrise Kevin. What the media makes, the media will unmake.
I’ll be directing my efforts to joining the underground to fight against the Abbott/Rudd duelling Christian Theocracies.
how do we listen is it on tv
bemused enjoy the day no ones listening to you.
you sad man
zoomster @ 5404
No, I don’t have to ask, but thanks for your advice even though I did not find it useful.
my say @ 5408
I have obviously captured your attention. 😀
And I am not a bit sad. See my post 5405 for example.
my say
click on this link
http://www.youtube.com/deakinuniversity
not sure how much longer it will go for
it’s been interesting so far.
JG’s great!
[5364
zoomster
briefly
She is just not up to the office and every time she ventures into public this is obvious to every observer.
Er, what? Someone who can swing 20% of an audience around in a couple of hours is clearly ‘up to the office’.
Someone who clearly is held in respect by world leaders is clearly ‘up to the office’.
Someone who keeps fighting when the chips are down is clearly ‘up to the office’.
Someone who not only forms a minority government but holds it together so well that it’s still standing two years later and has passed some hugely controversial bills in that time is clearly ‘up to the office’.]
JG has many qualities, zoomster. Clearly, she can be persuasive in the right settings, is determined and is good at getting people to collaborate. Maybe she is good at the interpersonal mechanics of small gatherings.
But this does not conceal the fact that she has neither the respect nor the affection of the vast majority of the electorate. This is merely to (under)state the obvious. In my opinion, this reflects on her personal judgment, political reflexes, the style-and-content of her speeches and the errors she has made, especially in her compromises with the Greens and Independents. Simply put, these define her as weak, self-serving and limited. These traits are the very antithesis of what is expected in a PM. She has had nearly two years to build a new leadership persona and has failed. On the contrary, her leadership continues to decay and she is held in far lower esteem now than at the time of the last election.
(By the way, though I have not noticed the leaders of G20 states falling over themselves to praise Gillard, surely were this to happen it would rank as a pure counter-cyclical indicator – for the most part they comprise the high water mark in ineffectual mediocrity.)
my say,
don’t worry about bemused, really, don’t. Think TLM a lot older, gleeful snark and petty snipes. Not worth bothering about.
I’m with C@tmomma in joining the underground fight and I concur with both her and BB’s sentiments.
Some people give up too easily.
Oh and bemused reply to this with your usual smugness, I just laugh at you now.
No respect.
*glad you are OK Kezza.
kezza2 @ 5411
Thanks for that link. I had been struggling for a while trying to get into that unsuccessfully.
[5366
muttleymcgee
The source of Labor’s unpopularity is the PM. if she won’t resign, she should be removed.
Apart from the obvious nonsense, she should be removed by whom?
Noone has the cojones or the nous to do it, least of all the Ruddster. JG removed his with the 71 – 31 and by his own admission, he won’t be challenging.]
I am not calling for the re-appointment of Rudd. Far from it. But I am saying that if the governing party don’t change the PM, the public will change the governing party at the first opportunity.
After reading the world news, I can see that the Syrian civil war is looking like it’s in the endgame.
There’s fighting in Damascus, Assad’s cabinet is getting assassinated, and it all feels like the last days of Gaddafi’s regime.
If Syria plays out like Libya, I expect Assad to attempt to flee in the next few weeks.
It’s been a terrible year in the middle east. I hope that it finally settles down after the war in Syria is over.
grey @ 5413
Can’t say I can recall anything you have written but I will take notice now and see if you command respect.
The only zinger in the PM’s Hangout was the thoughtfully worded same sex marriage question which pretty much nailed all her contradictions on the issue.
The rest has mostly been progressive people asking questions about education, health, housing affordability, technology etc
Easy stuff
Von Kirsdarke @ 5416
What happened to your old avatar? It was so distinctive and colourful.
briefly
Three days ago, JG finally had some good press from News Ltd.
In an editorial – that no one reads
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/julia-gillard-engaged-and-credible-at-lIn the past few weeks since Parliament rose for the winter recess, Ms Gillard has been able to present a much more positive and credible face to the public. In stark contrast to the gridlocked and often nasty debates in the last weeks of the Budget sittings, this has struck a chord with the publicast/story-fndo45r1-1226428659763
[In the past few weeks since Parliament rose for the winter recess, Ms Gillard has been able to present a much more positive and credible face to the public. In stark contrast to the gridlocked and often nasty debates in the last weeks of the Budget sittings, this has struck a chord with the public]
But what have we had since that one, one, bit of positivity. Column after column after column of high-profile opinion pieces drowning it out.
And out come the pavlovian doggies drooling over leadershit.
I’m surprised you’re falling for it.
oops, the link should be
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/julia-gillard-engaged-and-credible-at-last/story-fndo45r1-1226428659763
sorry bout that.
kezza2 @ 5420
Your link didn’t work.
I replaced my avatar. I tend to get bored of them after about a year.
kezza2 @ 5420
A really charming way to speak of those holding a different opinion. Of course it could be turned around by references to pavlovian doggies slavering over the failed Gillard leadership.
But those who recognise reality are generally too polite to do so.
Von Kirsdarke @ 5423
I thought at first glance it was the old one after going through a bushfire and getting scorched. 😀
I have been watching the PM on YouTube, rather than following the Ruddstoration crap on here.
She has been doing pretty well too, IMHO. There have been a mix of questions covering everything from suicide prevention policies to service pensions. She has fielded ever one of them with a minimum of boilerplate.
This is the sort of thing that will cut through. No Tony Abbott style walking away, no shirking, just the PM engaging with concerned constituents.
Way to go, Juila.
BTW, on the service pension issue, the retired soldier seeking the same indexation deal on service pensions as that applied to civvie pensions and super was answered in full too. He mightn’t have liked the answer, which was to the effect that service pensions were in a somewhat different category to civvie ones because service people can receive them and cash out their super after a mere 20 years of work, whereas the rest of us have to wait to we’re sixty five.
Well, SWMBO has arisen and grocery shopping is next on the agenda.
Have fun and catch you all later. 😉
my say @ 5358
Don’t worry “these stupid members” won’t have careers if your pin-up girl Julia remains leader.
With Rudd they have some chance.
Face facts, will you?
smithe @ 5426
I only got onto that near the end. Is it available to view offline?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-21/union-bosses-play-down-rudd-comeback-talk/4145464
Just dropping in to throw this link up. Any further leadershit discussion clogging up this board should take this clear message into account.
JG needs all progressive voters on board and fully backing her, irrespective of personal views, or we will have an anarchist right wing government wrecking our country. You either believe in fighting for the cause or you dont. it is not about marketing, or brands or cherrypicking policies. It is about fundamental deeply held views that are under massive attack globally.
Make no mistake, the Libs are in the thrall of the same forces that are attempting to destroy democracy in the US. They are using EXACTLY the same tactics. If we fall for it we are utter fools.
*steps off soap box*
Kezza2, great to see you again! With you, BB, C@tmomma, and Grey 1000%.
[I’ll be directing my efforts to joining the underground to fight against the Abbott/Rudd duelling Christian Theocracies.]
C@tmomma, bring it on – and looking forward to your reportage on Monday 😉
Seemed like a live feed only bemused.
It might be available on YouTube afterwards butbI don’t have the web address. N
Smithe,
[She has been doing pretty well too, IMHO. There have been a mix of questions covering everything from suicide prevention policies to service pensions. She has fielded ever one of them with a minimum of boilerplate.
This is the sort of thing that will cut through. No Tony Abbott style walking away, no shirking, just the PM engaging with concerned constituents.]
YES!
Gweneth,
[Make no mistake, the Libs are in the thrall of the same forces that are attempting to destroy democracy in the US. They are using EXACTLY the same tactics. If we fall for it we are utter fools.]
MOAR YES!
And I hope that you are both doing okay.
Doing fine Fiona, thanks for asking.
Cancer is, after all, just a diagnosis. Not a sentence.
fiona,
Once a Punk always a punk! 😀
Yes, that’s right. The unions putting their foot down stops Rudd.
No it doesn’t. It just makes things much worse for Gillard.
It just reenforces the view that Rudd is with the people and the unions are for themselves
Gweneth & smithe,
Stay well! 🙂
[5385
castle
Posted Saturday, July 21, 2012 at 11:23 am | Permalink
They’re dancing to News Ltd’s tune and plugging it’s Get Gillard agenda with nary a second thought.
Yeah and no-one gives a second thought to Tone being relaxed and comfortable about a young girl being bullied into suicide in the work place.]
Now this is the sort of thing Labor can use to flog the Tories.
Abbott has form on this. Bernie Banton, anyone?
Just goes to show what a truly miserable human being the bloke is. Yet no-one in our precious MSM will call him on it.
spur212,
As a Labor person born and bred I’d rather stand with the Unions than the capitalist christian lackeys any day.
Even though I do believe that the Labor/Union BOP needs to be modified and the party base expanded to accommodate Small Business, Micro Businesses, Entrepeneurs and Contractors.
smithe
With a group of progressive voters who are probably going to vote Labor anyway?
I saw it. She did okay, but it was more of a preaching to the choir thing than a cut through with swing voters thing
C@tmomma
One of the major problems the ALP has as an organisation is that it’s seen as closed off to people in the private sector and business community.
As Paul Keating says, too many people in the Labor Party don’t like the society we created
Nice to see Smithe & Gweneth firing away, I hope you are both doing fine. BB’s post earlier was brilliant
spur212 @ 5436
Absolutely correct!!
It just reinforces the widely held view that the “faceless men” and “union bosses” decide who should be leader of the Labor Party, by threatening MPs with disendorsement if they don’t toe the line.
Cripes, they’re hopeless.
blah di blah blah bola
outside left
Posted Saturday
agreed.. when somthing happens to your health you see the world
through optimism positive thoughts.
thank you both for being the wonderful people you are.
i think the union has more clout than people on here wouldnt you say.
after all thats our rootes, not rich people
in fact i would like to take to the streets and support julia and the Unions any one here close to unions could they ask if thats possible.
Powerful union bosses say former prime minister Kevin Rudd does not have enough support inside and outside the party room to launch a successful challenge for the Labor leadership.
After a week of intensified leadership speculation, Prime Minister Julia Gillard last night called a number of union bosses to the Lodge for talks.
Both the Prime Minister’s office and union leaders say the meetings were not called to deal with leadership speculation.
After the meeting a number of union heads publically supported Ms Gillard’s leadership.
The head of the Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees’ Association, Joe de Bruyn, told reporters that the Prime Minister’s union support base is strong.
“I think they are fully supportive,” he said outside the meeting.
Tony Sheldon from the Transport Workers Union disputed rumblings about a possible union defection from Ms Gillard’s camp.
“Julia Gillard will definitely be leading Labor to the next election, everyone knows it,” he said.
Mr Sheldon also launched an attack on those within the Labor movement who want to reinstate Mr Rudd as leader.
“It is such a small group of people who have counter views, it’s like the Malcolm Turnbull fan club. It’s the Malcolm Turnbull fan club within the ALP,” he said.
Audio: Union heavyweights converge on Lodge for leadership talks (AM)
But Mr Sheldon has not denied media reports he threatened to withdraw $200,000 in political donations if Labor dumped Ms Gillard from the top job.
Meanwhile, the national secretary of the Australian Workers Union, Paul Howes, has been in the US with Mr Rudd.
He has dismissed speculation that Mr Rudd is planning to mount a leadership revival campaign.
“I’m not convinced that the current media fury back home in Australia is representing something that’s real,” he said.
“I don’t think there is a challenge on, I don’t believe Kevin is running. I believe him when he has said numerous times that he won’t challenge the Prime Minister.”
Greens MP Adam Bandt says actions to undermine Ms Gillard by the ALP’s right wing powerbrokers are unsettling.
He has told Sky News that Labor powerbrokers such as Sam Dastyari and Joel Fitzgibbon do not understand the damage the constant leadership speculation is doing to Parliament.
“I think that the ALP right powerbrokers are white-anting the Prime Minister and undermining the stability of the Parliament and the stability of the Government,” he said.
“And we want to get on with the job of having a parliament that runs a full term, effective stable and progressive government and delivering some real reforms to the community.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-21/union-bosses-play-down-rudd-comeback-talk/4145464
i will post that again so we know where its linked
Powerful union bosses say former prime minister Kevin Rudd does not have enough support inside and outside the party room to launch a successful challenge for the Labor leadership.
After a week of intensified leadership speculation, Prime Minister Julia Gillard last night called a number of union bosses to the Lodge for talks.
Both the Prime Minister’s office and union leaders say the meetings were not called to deal with leadership speculation.
After the meeting a number of union heads publically supported Ms Gillard’s leadership.
The head of the Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees’ Association, Joe de Bruyn, told reporters that the Prime Minister’s union support base is strong.
“I think they are fully supportive,” he said outside the meeting.
Tony Sheldon from the Transport Workers Union disputed rumblings about a possible union defection from Ms Gillard’s camp.
“Julia Gillard will definitely be leading Labor to the next election, everyone knows it,” he said.
Mr Sheldon also launched an attack on those within the Labor movement who want to reinstate Mr Rudd as leader.
“It is such a small group of people who have counter views, it’s like the Malcolm Turnbull fan club. It’s the Malcolm Turnbull fan club within the ALP,” he said.
Audio: Union heavyweights converge on Lodge for leadership talks (AM)
But Mr Sheldon has not denied media reports he threatened to withdraw $200,000 in political donations if Labor dumped Ms Gillard from the top job.
Meanwhile, the national secretary of the Australian Workers Union, Paul Howes, has been in the US with Mr Rudd.
He has dismissed speculation that Mr Rudd is planning to mount a leadership revival campaign.
“I’m not convinced that the current media fury back home in Australia is representing something that’s real,” he said.
“I don’t think there is a challenge on, I don’t believe Kevin is running. I believe him when he has said numerous times that he won’t challenge the Prime Minister.”
Greens MP Adam Bandt says actions to undermine Ms Gillard by the ALP’s right wing powerbrokers are unsettling.
He has told Sky News that Labor powerbrokers such as Sam Dastyari and Joel Fitzgibbon do not understand the damage the constant leadership speculation is doing to Parliament.
“I think that the ALP right powerbrokers are white-anting the Prime Minister and undermining the stability of the Parliament and the stability of the Government,” he said.
“And we want to get on with the job of having a parliament that runs a full term, effective stable and progressive government and delivering some real reforms to the community.”
[Meanwhile, the national secretary of the Australian Workers Union, Paul Howes, has been in the US with Mr Rudd]
from the link
mmm this is one union man i wouldnt stand next to
[spur212
Posted Saturday, July 21, 2012 at 12:25 pm | Permalink
Yes, that’s right. The unions putting their foot down stops Rudd.
No it doesn’t. It just makes things much worse for Gillard.
It just reenforces the view that Rudd is with the people and the unions are for themselves]
Rudd is finished, he wont be back as leader, you have to deal with it, go have a cry.
[Von Kirsdarke
Posted Saturday, July 21, 2012 at 11:57 am | Permalink
After reading the world news, I can see that the Syrian civil war is looking like it’s in the endgame.
There’s fighting in Damas]
Von i feel there is more to come, the bombing of the bus with the israeli,s
on board. iran seems a problem, i think we will see some thing happen on that front.
all to calm for my liking.
i hope there is no problems at the london olympics.