Before I proceed, a plug for the Westpoll WA state poll post, which this post is bumping from the top of the page.
Moreton extends from the southern Brisbane riverside suburbs of Oxley, Sherwood and Yeronga out to Runcorn and Acacia Ridge in the south, the latter area being the more favourable for Labor. It was one of nine Queensland seats gained by Labor at the 2007 election, of which it and two others stayed with the party in 2010. The seat has existed in name since federation, but was based on the Gold Coast and Brisbane’s southern outskirts until the creation of McPherson in 1949. It then began a long drift north into the inner suburbs, making marginal a seat that had once been safely conservative. The first near-miss came with Jim Killen’s famous 130-vote win in 1961, achieved with help from Communist Party preference leakage, which allowed the Menzies government to survive with a one-seat majority. Labor would not get over the line until 1990, when Liberal veteran Don Cameron was unseated by Garrie Gibson.
Gibson suffered a small adverse swing in 1993 before succumbing to a further 4.9% swing amid the Queensland tidal wave of 1996. The new Liberal member was Gary Hardgrave, a former children’s television host and media adviser to Senator David MacGibbon. Hardgrave held junior ministry positions from 2001 to 2005 while maintaining a tenuous grip on his seat, surviving a 4.2% swing in 1998 and an unfavourable redistribution in 2004. Redistribution further chipped away at his margin before the 2007 election, and he was unseated by a 7.5% swing to Labor in 2007. He has since kept in the public eye as the drive presenter on Fairfax Radio’s Brisbane station 4BC.
The seat has since been held for Labor by Graham Perrett, previously an adviser to the Queensland Resources Council and earlier a state ministerial staffer and official with the Queensland Independent Education Union. Perrett enjoyed what proved to be a decisive 1.4% boost at the redistribution before the 2010 election, at which a 4.9% swing cut his margin to 1.1%. He made the news in his first term with the publication of his “erotic novel”, The Twelfth Fish, and in his second when he threatened to quit parliament if Labor changed leaders again, a position he backed away from when Kevin Rudd was marshalling his unsuccessful leadership challenge in February 2012.
The Liberal National Party has gain preselected its candidate from 2010, Malcolm Cole, a former Courier-Mail journalist and late Howard-era staffer to Alexander Downer and Santo Santoro. For the 2010 election the LNP initially preselected Michael Palmer, the 20-year-old son of Clive, which was seen as a measure of the Coalition’s bleak electoral prospects at the time. This together with the preselection of Wyatt Roy in Longman drew considerable derision, and some skepticism was expressed when Palmer withdrew on health grounds.
SK
Apologies. But bemused has made assertions, and I want him to back them up. Evidence based and all that.
http://m.perthnow.com.au/news/breaking-news/labor-greens-alliance-working-tas-premier/story-e6frg13c-1226421385024?from=public_rss
TASMANIAN premier Lara Giddings says her alliance with the Greens is working, but she’ll fight hard for a Labor majority government at the next state election. Ms Giddings’ comments came as Labor powerbrokers launched an attack on the Greens, describing them as “extremist” and “loopy”. The parties share power in Tasmania, where two members of cabinet are Greens. Labor and the Liberals each hold 10 seats in Tasmania’s Legislative Assembly, while the Greens hold five. “That’s the government that we were provided (with), that’s the government that we’re delivering,” the premier told reporters on Monday. “And I believe that when you look at what’s happening around Tasmania you’d have to say that we are delivering.” Ms Giddings pointed to growth in agriculture and mining, including a new $70 million venture at Beaconsfield, as proof the alliance could yield results.
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The last sentance is for boeware
bemused
Personally, the reason I respond negatively to posters such as dtt and peg is that much of what they say is simply incorrect.
That’s not bullying.
They’re free to defend their position.
If other posters respond to them in the same way, it’s probably because they too think they’re incorrect.
That’s not bullying.
Greens Party Marine Measures
For the Greens Party, a ‘measure’ is a statement of intent of action. It is where the rubber hits the road. They are the actual things a Milne government would seek to implement.
Yesterday I looked at the first of 10 sustainable agriculture measures on the Greens Policy document. My particular interest was whether the policies met various tests for policy integrity. Bottom line: if you are a farmer you would not know from the measures what a Milne government would cost you.
The Greens Party has 20 policy measures on marine issues. Today I look at the a different way of examining the policies: costs and revenues:
(1) Do they add to, or reduce the regulatory burden?
(2) Do they add to, or reduce, current economic values or practices?
(3) Do they add to, or reduce, the bureaucratic burden?
(4) Do they add to, or reduce, government costs?
(5) Do they increase government planning and review costs?
(6) Do they add to government revenue?
(7) Do they reduce costs to government?
In a number of cases it is not possible to answer these basic aspects of policy because either the measure is unclear or the measure is unclear, or the impact of the measure is unclear. As usual with the Greens Party measures, it is not possible to state whether the measures will increase private sector costs. Given the additional regulatory burden this would be inevitable. Once again, many current ‘clients’ in the marine space would not know what a Milne Government would do to them.
The following are my best estimates. Often it is difficult to sort out what the measures really mean or what they might look like in reality. (This is just as well, since the Greens Party appears to have no current intention of actually implementing them.)
4 of the 20 measures are either neutral in impact or there is insufficient information to even guess at what is intended.
6 of the 20 measures require additional regulations.
0 of the 20 measures reduce regulations.
13 of the 20 require additional costs to government.
0 of the 20 measures reduce costs to government.
0 of the 20 raise additional revenue.
4 of the 20 require additional planning or review activities.
0 out the 20 identify savings.
5 out of the 20 require a reduction or elimination of current economic practice/values.
13 out of 20 require additional bureaucracy. (This is a best guess. Some of the coordination might reduce bureaucracy).
A Milne government would increase costs, increase regulation, increase review, planning and monitoring costs, increase bureaucracy, reduce economic activity, seek no additional revenue and make no savings.
victoria @ 2051
The evidence is in this blog.
Do your own research.
I am not interested in keeping this going for the rest of the day. That you appear to be is evidence in itself of your extreme sensitivity.
Bemused, Victoria,
I know you’ve both got your Irish up today, but can we please not have a pissing contest over who has bullied whom?
It’s bloody tiresome.
zoomster @ 2053
I agree. I have often disagreed with both of those posters. I have also agreed at times.
I haven’t ever perceived you as bullying.
What kind of look would that be? One of the richest countries in the world turning it’s back on the poor and dispossessed.
We’d be right up there with Apartheid Sth Africa.
smithe – that’s what I thought so why is Morrison bringing it up now. Howard’s awful stance on apartheid in Sth Africa is one of the reasons I disliked his inner person so much. He was more worried about protecting is beloved rugby and cricket than he was about persecuted human beings.
o examine my conscience sounds awfully like a bullying tactic that Abbott uses. Sick
BEMUSED POSTED,,
Bemused i have met some rather nasty , clergy in my life
Tne nasty ones say the above,
The others just chat
smithe @ 2056
I am not Irish. 😉
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke
FWA Official Terry Nassios is giving evidence to the Parliament’s Electoral Committee about his investigation into HSU and MP Craig ]
I’m orf to have a look for awhile.
bemused
How predictable.
Leoni mentioned yesterday that howard wanted to reduce payments to down syndrome parents,
Even alan jones critsised that one, the things u forget that liberals want is mind boggling
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 2m
Terry Nassios is giving evidence via telephone and not in person in Canberra. Anything he says is covered by privilege. #Thomson
View details]
Bemused
Step One.
Want to acheive something
Step Two
Use stories and rhetoric to make sure people:
a. hear what you say
b. pay attention
c. understand what you say
d. agree with what you say
e. do something about what you say (ie vote ALP)
ALP is failing at all of these.
Well at least williams not getting involved
Once he told me id be more suited to franks’ as frank is really a decent person
That really upset me, made me feel depressed
No one stuck up for me at the timed except vic, and finns
BH,
Just revisiting the Refugee Convention, we are not the only country presently cutting up rough about it. Other AS destinations like Italy and Spain are also grumbling.
I adhere to the view that walking away from the Convention itself is not a viable option (for the reasons mentioned earlier) but it may be possible to seek and obtain some revision of it’s provisions so that they more accurately relate to present international circumstances.
This is probably the best we can hope for, if some revision of our obligations under the Convention is the aim.
Thanks, bemused.
My point is that both of them seem to!
[We’d be right up there with Apartheid Sth Africa.]
I suspect that when the first developed country that’s a signatory breaks ranks they’ll be a stampede.
Danny Lewis
[Poroti: I read an article that said Abbott was departing on July 17th, which is actually tomorrow.]
Thanks. The SMH (?) said Friday so that would explain the zero lack of fanfare over the last couple of days. They may still keep it low key to keep expectations low.
Question for the day!!!!
Fifty Poll Bludger points* for whoever guesses the right answer:
Who wrote the Odyssey?
NB: This is a trick question.
* Poll bludger points allow you to use excessive swearing, name-call gratuituously and for you to get out to temporary bans by William.
I’m really enjoying reading PB at the moment.
smithe
the UNHCR statement about Malaysia is interesting in this regard.
You don’t have to do much reading between the lines to see that they themselves recognise the Convention has limitations and is too broad to be applicable to every country.
bg @ 2065
Sounds right to me.
I appreciate your intelligent posts which add much to this blog. Much more than the paeans to a failed leader and moaning and groaning about the awfulness of Abbott.
Back later folks. Chores to do.
[Who wrote the Odyssey]
HOMER Simpson
Arthur C Clark.
Hey but I know I am wrong and besides I could never use those points. I would be tarred and feathered if I try. I would gift them to Showy as he would know how to use them.
[Abbott was departing on July 17th]
Is Mrs Abbott in the touring party?
rummel
Enjoy it while you can. Elections focus the mind. There will be no leadershit, watermelon wars et al. Instead it will be a ocus on staying progressive or oing regressive with you Tories.
Abbott, if still there will have to justify the costs of his policies. He will have to tell penioners he is taking money off them. Just like the experience of Public Housing Tenants
losing half in State Liberal Governments money grab through rents.
Then there is the spectre of Industrial Relations.
So enjoy while you can.
Abbott Save His Blood
Leroy@Leroy_Lynch
Voters believe the #carbontax will not be scrapped by a LNP government despite “pledge” http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/coalition-stands-by-carbon-tax-pledge/story-e6frfku9-1226426944194 & http://www.afr.com/p/national/voters_doubt_abbott_will_repeal_yivB7r3SVEMtg2VFAFXLiN #auspol
[2069
CTar1
Posted Monday, July 16, 2012 at 12:41 pm | Permalink
We’d be right up there with Apartheid Sth Africa.
I suspect that when the first developed country that’s a signatory breaks ranks they’ll be a stampede.]
Probably. But that won’t solve the problem. In fact, it would exacerbate it.
Once first point of refuge countries like Malaysia figure out they’ve been dudded and left holding the baby, just watch those boats start ramping up. Hell, They’ll be piling them onto container ships by the thousand and grounding those same ships on the WA coastline just off Freo.
I wouldn’t blame them, either. What are we going to do about it? Sink the ships?
We ignore the issue at our peril.
Well, the Coalition are real good things to win the next election aren’t they?
POPPYCOCK!
I have it on good authority that one agency refused to accept a bet of a measley $1000 at odds of 6.50 on the Labor Party to win the next election.
There is no interest and no demand on Australian federal politics betting at the moment.
Just like the betting, the polls re REAL soft, albeit consistently, but soft.
The worm will turn, you wait and see 😎
Re Nassios
Nothing like evidence over a crappy phoneline. Maybe Mr Nassios is looking after a sick relative or is unwell himself.
Victoria – Rudd and Slipper are apparently friends so I’d be surprised if (and I’m guessing this is what you were hinting at earlier) Julia moves to shut Kevin up for good if Slipper is back in the chair.
Based on what she said on the Insiders interview, don’t be surprised if he doesn’t even get back there in the first place 🙁
Kicking Rudd out of the party would rely, in part, on Slipper’s support and I doubt that would be very reliable.
Mind you, that’s purely a guess at what you were suggesting 🙂
Guytaur
You are putting a lot of faith in Labor getting there shit together. Looking at Labor and there leader I’m very happy with the state of play. Gillard will thankfully lead labor to the next election and a loss and then the real blood letting will begin.
The Labor Party will not be kicking Rudd out of anywhere.
Rudd knows he will never lead federal Labor again and has accepted it!
The only ones Labor will be kicking out of the way are the Greens.
Avoiding as I try to the Rudd is better than Gillard, no Gillard is better than Rudd, Rudd is better than Gillard, no Gillard is better than Rudd, Rudd is better than Gillard, no Gillard is better than Rudd, Rudd is better than Gillard, no Gillard is better than Rudd “debate” one thing does keep reoccurring.
This is a claim by the supporters of one side that they are outnumbered, ganged up on, surrounded, besieged, swamped by, bullied, (delete as appropriate) by the other.
On casual observation the opposing numbers of those who constantly indulge in Rudd is better than Gillard, no Gillard is better than Rudd seem about balanced to me. Maybe four or five regulars on each side.
I suppose creating the perception even to one’s self that you are heroic defenders of the minority position is understandable, but I am not sure it bears scrutiny.
It is also interesting that when we do get those sporadic days when the bickering ceases and other subjects of debate emerge then one or other of the protagonists (from either side) quite deliberately throws in a gratuitous comment to get it all started again.
Reminds me of watching kids wind each other up over who has the most Lego.
http://mobile.news.com.au/national/beaconsfield-set-for-new-70-million-nickel-and-iron-ore-mine/story-fncynjr2-1226420113101
For boerwar-,,,
BEACONSFIELD, the town made famous by the Todd Russell and Brant Webb rescue, has struck gold with a new $70 million mine. Just a week after the Beaconsfield gold mine closed, with the loss of 150 jobs, a new company has revealed it will start work on a new mine in the town next year. Proto Resources and Investments says its nickel and iron ore mine will employ 100 people and about 150 during construction. Tasmanian executive officer Andrew Heap said the company’s $70 million Barnes Hill nickel and iron ore mine was all but certain to go ahead by the end of next year, The Mercury reports. A final feasibility report was completed last week and confirmed the mine would be highly profitable at existing prices. It would have a life of at least 25 years.
O and a mine opening not closing poor tone
roaldan I really do think Gillard is better than Rudd except for when Rudd is better than Gillard.
rummel
The Treasurer was launching an NBN hub at Adelaide Library today. Showing Labor gets it with IT. They get that people are reluctant to change. They get that the average non IT person appreciates help adapting to change.
When Labor does something right they really do it right.
These are things that count at election times.
[PM Presser coming up usual live outlets.]
davidwh
Who is better Abbott or Turnbull?
Well my observation is i have never , ever read a person who comes
Here re the pm is better,
That would be childish nonsence,
Can PBers please meet on the lawn at 4pm for High Tea and viewing of the Inaugural Ruddista V Gillardian Tug-of-War contest.
The PM will be speaking from a desal/wave power electricity plant in Freemantle
[PM on now]
Well to the extent that an opinion can be formed listening to Nassios down a shite phone line into the c’ee room relayed onto my antiquated technology and the fact that he is answering a fair % of dixers from Bronnie (and the fact that I am not paying complete attention), Nassios sounds credible.
Witnesses who give evidence without prevarication and in a tone which is neither volatile nor monotonous go alright generally.
News 24 cuts due to audio problem
guytaur
[The PM will be speaking from a desal/wave power electricity plant in Freemantle]
ONE E 😉 . Boerwar will be pleased to see this going ahead.
ABCnews24 audio of PM presser is dreadful. I can barely understand it. No they have cut it off because they could not get the audio working. 😡
Centre as a politician of substance then Turnbull by a good margin. As a politician likely to lead the Coalition to government then Abbott seems to have the wood over Turnbull. Personally I believe substance is more important than winning and I have never feared a Labor government the way many here seem to fear Coalition governments. So I can, and have, lived comfortably with governments of both political persuasion.
I don’t particularly want Abbott to be our next PM but suspect it is a real likelyhood.