GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.
It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.
Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.
UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.
Yup, i can see the Taliban Right of the Fiberals like Cory Bernardi thinking that is just a peachy keen idea!! 🙂
Gus,
Nope. William is mod of this blog.
Just enjoy Fibs swimming in hot sauce. Particularly if there is MOAR.
See my 80.
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 4m
#Newspoll Abbott: Approve 32 (+1) Disapprove 59 (-1) #auspol]
Good to see Abbott’s high disapproval rating is confirmed and is now higher than Gillard’s.
In fact, mauled from both sides.
Politically speaking, ‘Retiring in 1975, Fred Daly liked to tell the story of the new Member who sat next to him in the House. Turning to Fred, he said, ‘I like to sit here and look across at the enemy.’
‘Son,’ said Fred, ‘you are looking at the Opposition. The enemy is behind you.’ ’
imacca
I would love to be a fly on the wall of that leadership discussion.
” A WOMAN. WHAT DO YOU MEAN? A HUMAN BEING WITH AN UTERUS? ARE YOU FECKING CRAZY? WHO IS GOING TO MAKE THE COFFEE?”
Push to extend dental care to give 1.5 million free treatment has replaced the newspoll result as the first story.
And Shanahan has re-spun his newspoll story’s original headling Prime Minister Julia Gillard, Labor mired in Newspoll trough to more negatively antiLabour, Murdoch-approved Giveaway fails to give ALP a Bounce& the article is now paywalled.
Shanners must be feeling very sh*tty.
Turnbull supporters and Rudd supporters share the same misconceptions about their preferred leaders. They both confuse being popular with the electorate with effectively running a political party or even a government.
Rudd micromanaged the entire government and the party. A major example of this was the Labor party conference in 2007, which even by modern political party conference standards, was a gigantic pantomime. It was basically Rudd holding court over the party like an medieval monarch over his peasants.
The reports that in government, he literally ignored public servants if they told him something he didn’t want to hear is simply incredible.
I see very similar traits with Malcolm Turnbull. There is a reason why he is despised within his own party.
Unfortunately for both of them, electoral popularity is fickle, while political organisational skill is lasting.
CrikeyW
😀
I suspect that if either Rudd or Turnbull were returned, their popularity wouldn’t last.
[I suspect that if either Rudd or Turnbull were returned, their popularity wouldn’t last.]
I tend to agree.
CrikeyW
I always assume that by the time a Labor politician has made it all the way to the ALP leadership, running a country would be a breeze.
ABC TV doing its late evening as usual no reception..every other channel works.
Clue, anyone?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-11/wa-treasurer-to-quit/4064974?section=wa
[WA Treasurer to quit for tilt at federal seat
Updated June 12, 2012 00:18:08
Western Australia Treasurer Christian Porter is expected to quit the ministry later today in preparation for a tilt at federal politics.
Mr Porter, who also holds the Attorney-General’s profile, has been one of the Barnett Government’s strongest performers and was touted as a future premier.
The ABC understands he will announce the news to his party room today.
The decision is said to have left senior liberals gob-smacked and unimpressed.
The seat of Pearce, for which he is expected to run, is currently held by the retiring MP Judi Moylan.
The former senior state prosecutor entered politics in a by-election in 2008 and became a minister within months.
Mr Porter’s office says he has no comment tonight but will make a statement tomorrow.]
Yeah, Puff
But it ain’t the case for Julia.
Hate to mention
Gender
Shamaham is not a happy person. I mean, all this time, all these assertions that JG, leadership is in trouble, AND SHE IS STILL THERE??
Sit and Spin Shama’s Baby!! 🙂
End of a beginning,or beginning of the end.
Josh Jerga@josh_jerga
Many WA Liberals say they are stunned at news tonight WA Treasurer Christian Porter will resign & run for a federal seat
Bobalot 107
Mostly agree, with the exception of the Turnbull comparison, to a degree.
They are both megalomaniacs, but..
Think Turnbull much more prone to a certain reasoned pragmatism, probably based on fiscal instincts.
Which is more likely to lead to a reasoned conclusion, perhaps.
[Turnbull supporters and Rudd supporters share the same misconceptions about their preferred leaders. They both confuse being popular with the electorate with effectively running a political party or even a government.]
I couldn’t care less how well run Gillard would be as Opposition leader, I want a Labor leader who has a chance of winning the next election and isn’t stuck with a primary vote of 31%.
Love this guy on twitter
https://twitter.com/Antibolt/status/212190101042757632/photo/1
Good line that. Defines a reasonable and defensible position to hold as an MP going into a conscience vote, and pretty much tosses a challenge right back at em in the gay marriage lobby to consider the “new traditions and norms” possibilities. Well done that woman!
Well, Leroy.
I have no knowledge of Christian Porter.
Why would he do that?
William???
crikeyW
Yes I know, but gender is legitimate discussion when comparing the two major parties. Labor set out to encourage females, JG is a product of it as I understand it. For the LP nix that I know of for the same sort of programs.
Peter Hartcher now seems to think he’s Oswald Spengler. It’s bollocks.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/spoilt-west-invites-its-own-decline-20120611-2060u.html
[Spoilt West invites its own decline
June 12, 2012
Peter Hartcher
Opinion
It is easy and natural to think of the woes of the West’s main powers as an economic problem. Because that’s the way it is presented to us. And it is economic – at least, superficially. But if you take a step back, what we’re really living through is the decline of the West.]
If you were a Fiberal who had ANY ambition to get into Federal politics, might not you be looking at the current polling and think if ever a year is it, 2013 will be your year?? Might be a few Fibs burning their bridges a little for a chance at joining :monkey: happy wabble??
[Turnbull supporters and Rudd supporters share the same misconceptions about their preferred leaders. They both confuse being popular with the electorate with effectively running a political party or even a government.
Rudd micromanaged the entire government and the party.]
Honestly this is just so much crap. There must be a book of Rudd memes handbook for the gillard crowd, now. Simply repeating this shit where everything is just simply in absolutes. Rudd drank a cup of coffee therefore he is a caffeine addict pretty much describe how some these memes have been worked up.
[They both confuse being popular with the electorate with effectively running a political party or even a government.]
They are there to be PM of the country and not kowtow and be arse lickers of the factional bosses aka his replacement.
AND Rudd was in no way a bad PM for christ sake, this is another meme created After the event, and again like all these memes, for the purpose of justifying gillard knifing him and/or as to create a reason why he shouldn’t come back.
Rudd was doing pretty OK for a first term PM for party that had spent a lifetime in exile because of internal factional bs.
And again – it was Rudd who had the foresight to be ready for the GFC according to Henry, and it was Henry and he that bought about the saving stimulus package that kept a lot of your friends out of the unemployment line.
It can in no way be said that Rudd was a less than adequate PM, there is no way it can be said that he would not have won a majority in 2010, and in no way can it be said that he would provide a far better result for labor if he now replaced gillard.
But the invented memes will continune I know.
[Good line that. Defines a reasonable and defensible position to hold as an MP going into a conscience vote, and pretty much tosses a challenge right back at em in the gay marriage lobby to consider the “new traditions and norms” possibilities. Well done that woman!]
What a lot of absolute nonsense!
If a person supported slavery by saying that all people have the same moral worth, and thus some people shouldn’t OWN others, would you say that you can’t accept their proposition of a new tradition and norm of treating all people equally?
It was once a tradition and a norm for women to be treated as property in a marriage. The man OWNED the woman. But we realised that this norm was morally reprehensible, because it treated a woman as inferior to a man.
It was once a tradition and a norm that a women couldn’t divorce a man without the man’s consent. But we realised that this norm was morally reprehensible, because it treated a woman as inferior to a man.
Saying that marriage should remain discriminatory because it is a tradition and a norm is absurdist conservativism at its most idiotic. ALL social change could be stopped if people applied that rule to anything. We would still have slavery, and institutionalised discrimination against women and black people.
[ in no way can it be said that he would Not provide a far better result for labor if he now replaced gillard.]
This is the reality. If he were just a few percentage points ahead as preferred PM then you couldn’t really say this. However he is a country mile in front of everybody, and for a very long time. You would have to be total dishonest person to say that changing to Rudd would not improve Labor’s TPP. But I can there are many such people here.
[124
Leroy
Peter Hartcher ……. bollocks.]
Exactly.
hartchner is part of the decline of journalism in the west,murdoch is corrupt and people like hartchner cannot see that he and others are considered worse than snake oil salesmen and used car salesmen.
[ I suspect that if either Rudd or Turnbull were returned, their popularity wouldn’t last.
I tend to agree.]
But there is a very high probability that it would be far higher than gillard’s which has spent a lifetime as low as the sewer. I mean can a PM and the Party’s level of support be so linked and low for so long that people never connected the dots. Even little kiddies can do that.
“And again – it was Rudd who had the foresight to be ready for the GFC according to Henry, and it was Henry and he that bought about the saving stimulus package that kept a lot of your friends out of the unemployment line.”
I will remember that tribute to Labor good management.
Thank you, Thomas Paine.
With apologies to time-advanced ‘Eastern States’ posters… I have just watched Q and A (without having read any PB commentary) and must say I thought the PM was flawless in her handling of questions and issues, humane, spin-free, on top of her game. She is one classy woman.
How long would Tony Abbott have lasted in such a forum? Ten minutes?
[ GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 4m
#Newspoll Abbott: Approve 32 (+1) Disapprove 59 (-1) #auspol
Good to see Abbott’s high disapproval rating is confirmed and is now higher than Gillard’s.]
It is essentially a battle of who is the uggliest whore in the whore house. Nothing to be happy about.
People generally see Abbott as shit according to the polls. The same polls say the same of gillard, just a little less smelly.
[But there is a very high probability that it would be far higher than gillard’s which has spent a lifetime as low as the sewer. ]
Rather think it is your mind that is in the sewer,and cannot see a light anywhere.
Oh Dog, not more leadershit…. I will leave ShowsOn and TP to their delusions.
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
I know people who hold left views but still think marriage is a man-woman thing and that gays could have civil unions instead.
I support gay marriage because I can’t see what difference the gender of the married people has to do with anything.
The PM does not think the same as me. That’s not the end of the world.
I am not changing my vote over it.
HAHHAHAHAHAHAH just saw the monarchists celebrating quennie’s birthday on Lateline
What a sad lot of forelock tuggers they all were.
Except Gillard has legislated a whole slew of reforms and can really really improve. Abbott has achieved little, 2-3 Bills blocked.
China has set in place a banking policy which accords greater interest rates to savers and less to borrowers.
Is this an unheard of Western policy?
Peter Hartcher??
[I know people who hold left views but still think marriage is a man-woman thing and that gays could have civil unions instead.]
Supporting discrimination is not left wing. It is reactionary right wing nonsense that demeans us all.
I support gay marriage because I can’t see what difference the gender of the married people has to do with anything.
[The PM does not think the same as me. That’s not the end of the world.]
I have no idea what the PM thinks on the issue because saying that marriage is between a man and a woman because marriage is between a man and a woman is not a coherent argument. On this issue Gillard is not even wrong.
[I am not changing my vote over it.]
Well wouldn’t it be nice for Gillard to show some leadership on the issue, especially considering about 60% of the general Australian public supports same sex marriage.
My guess is that Gillard’s PARENTS are opposed to same sex marriage on religious grounds, and while they are still alive Gillard can’t bring herself to support something that her parents are opposed to.
But I accept this is my speculation, because whenever Gillard talks about the issue all she does is mumble words instead of providing any insight into why she holds the position she holds.
[Mod Lib is quite correct: Abbott is a drain on the Coalition vote, Gillard is a drain on the Labor vote.]
It is in really simple terms this. Labor has a chronic disease that is in high probability going to kill it or at the very least maim it.
There is a medicine right at hand that will go a long way to curing the sickness. But the parents wont let their child have this ‘blood transfusion’ because of a preconceived position.
They would rather watch the patient die than apply the medicine.
polanimal.
I didn’t think abbott blocked any?
Also, the economy is improving and Monkey Man can’t claim credit
141
People do hold views that are contradictory. I have been left-wing for a lot longer than I have not been a monarchist. So I do have some understanding.
However this does not stop the PM saying that her view of marriage is “between a man and a woman” looking political rather than her actual view.
Malaysia Deal, Pokies Reform and I think one other
tp
that is very low. T
here was an actual case of this in the last couple of weeks in Adelaide. It took a court order for the little kid to get treated because of some whackaloon beliefs of the parents. The judge ordered the treatment, (which ethically let the parents off the hook btw) and the little kiddy was saved.
Stop using dying kids as metaphors for political situations.
Blocked as in govt not submitting the Bills to the House
The PM said it was her deeply-held personal belief. What more can she say?
Quite, Puff.