Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.

It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.

UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.

Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.

UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,107 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. The big question is: what does Abbott do now? The old attack lines aren’t working, and he’ll want to get the next bit right to prevent those figures closing any further.

    Go positive? Go policy? More doom and gloom?

  3. [Tobe
    Posted Monday, June 11, 2012 at 11:32 pm | Permalink
    This is a good poll at this point of the cycle IMO. These numbers were perfectly common in the Howard years (and years). As others have pointed out the primaries look more 57-43…]

    53-47 I think you mean.

    [Thornleigh Labor Man
    Posted Monday, June 11, 2012 at 11:30 pm | Permalink
    Rummel: Tony Abbott is obviously a drain on the Liberal primary vote]

    There is absolutely no doubt whatsoever that both leaders are a drag on their respective party’s potential TPP vote.

  5. TLM
    [they’re not smart enough to go back to Turnball(who would trash Julia).]

    Only ‘cos they don’t make a Caprice Ute. 😆 😆

    Scott Morrison would last about 10 minutes. All he can talk about is boats.
    She’d prolly give him a tinny with n outboard ….. :devil:

  7. Go positive?

    Then he wouldn’t be Abbott.

    Go policy?

    Then it wouldn’t be the Libs.

    More doom and gloom?

    HiHo, Hiho, its screaming BOATS!!!!!!! we go

    With a Slip Slop Slap of some xenophobe crap

    HiHo, its what we know, Hiho!

  9. Please let it be Mesmerelda……. With a margin of one.

    We must pray to the Gods and Idols of all our peoples for this to come to pass!!! 🙂

  10. I think there is a simple reason Abbott is still leader. The party cannot work out who has the ambition and the talent to be a credible leader. So they are sticking with the :monkey: they know.

  11. The problem for Abbott is that he can’t shake the perception that he’s a jerk.

    Another problem is his obvious insincerity. It has become insulting to people’s intelligence.

    A recent example would be his obvious fake concern for Craig Thomson’s mental health. Does he honestly believe the public are that stupid?

  15. A recent example would be his obvious fake concern for Craig Thomson’s mental health. Does he honestly believe the public are that stupid?

    Yes, he is stupid enough to think that everybody is as dumb as him.

  18. Bobalot
    May I?
    [The problem for Abbott is that he can’t shake the perception that he’s a jerk.]

  19. Rabbott is gone. There is no way he will withstand the taunts he has coming to him now.

    The ony question is when.

  21. guytaur
    I hope Sophie Mirrabella gets the leadership. Only to please BK!

    She wants it, she wants it baaaad. No-one can tell me she doesn’t dream of the day she will be leader of the Libs and sitting in The Lodge as the first Liberal female PM.

  24. [Rabbott is gone. There is no way he will withstand the taunts he has coming to him now.

    The ony question is when.]

    It’ll be interesting to see the campaigning against the Liberal Party closer to election time. But I guess most of us would want something similar before that!

  25. [Rabbott is gone. There is no way he will withstand the taunts he has coming to him now.

    The ony question is when.]

    The usual time will be November, and since the Libs will want to pretend they supported the carbon price all along then Turnbull is the obvious choice, but recent history suggests the Libs can’t unite under a moderate.

  26. Mod Lib is quite correct: Abbott is a drain on the Coalition vote, Gillard is a drain on the Labor vote.

  28. [Gillard is a drain on the Labor vote.]

    WRONg, but I’ll reserve judgement until Rabbott appears on QandA

    😆

  30. As I said a month ago, they fired their big guns. They used it all: Slipper, Thomson. FUD, and every piece of small shot they had left in a final salvo.

    And what did they get for it?

    Sweet FA.

    Plan B, lads, what is plan B?

  31. Q&A POLL: 92-2 to THEIR ABC – LABOR

    Ghostie’s sister reports that Scotts World has the One Audience lead unchanged at 92-2, with primary bias, Labor 5%, (unchanged) 95% Coalition, (unchanged) and 0% for waverers.

    Without full results available, a complete analysis cannot yet be undertaken.

    Going on the rather formidable set of figures, it is reasonable to assume that the trend is steady.

    Tony Jones will keep his job.

    Mark Scott remains well positioned for private sector position, SBS and BBC come to mind.

  32. Rabbott’s brain would explode if he were to be replaced by a woman.

    Actually, i think that given his quite long experience as LOTO and his standing as a good soldier for the Liberal Party, he would make a good Deputy LOTO.

    A kind of “loyal boy” perhaps……

  33. Tobe,

    I cannot possibly imagine how they could get away with saying they “supported” the carbon price all this time.

  34. Watching Qand A now.
    Best ‘performance’ from PM I have seen.

    Questions were mostly good, except a couple of stupid ones at the start.

    I didn’t see Tony Jones as bad or antagnostic. He seemed to want the show to be more interesting because JG kept it so controlled… He was possibly thinking it was boring.

  35. @PaulbernalUK: Never, in the field of British politics, has so little been known by so many in such high positions…. #leveson

  37. They might go for Julie Bishop in a token Lib Woman way. A woman to take on a woman. It would reset the clock for them, allow them to repudiate all the Abbott sleaze with the ‘new broom’ approach, and generate media interest in a new leader to leader contest 16 months from the election.

    Julie Bishop could do it, as long as their front bench was disciplined and kept from putting their feet in their mouths too often.

  39. I don’t think Tony Jones was that bad tonight, it was a good night for Gillard, and if :monkey: ever shows up (which he might decide is worth the risk as he starts slipping) then you want Jones to feel obliged not to go soft.

  40. @Madincroydon: Cameron forgets child is still in pub. Pretty serious ‘pre-Leveson amnesia’, most other participants exhibit only under oath. #leveson

  43. [They might go for Julie Bishop in a token Lib Woman way. A woman to take on a woman. It would reset the clock for them, allow them to repudiate all the Abbott sleaze with the ‘new broom’ approach, and generate media interest in a new leader to leader contest 16 months from the election.

    Julie Bishop could do it, as long as their front bench was disciplined and kept from putting their feet in their mouths too often.]

    Sure, but I have the suspicion there’s quite a few Libs who couldn’t handle having a female leader. They have enough trouble with the concept of a female leader on the other side. 😉

  50. AB @83,

    I agree, but Turnbull could get away with pretending he always supported it, even though he voted against it.

    The problem for the Libs after the carbon Rapture doesn’t happen, will be explaining how they are going to unwind everything… much easier to support it and then come up with variations that are easier to implement.

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