Budget polling: Nielsen, Galaxy and Morgan

Four polls: one from Nielsen, conducted on the two nights after the budget (Wednesday and Thursday) from a sample of 1200; one from Galaxy, conducted on Thursday evening and during the day yesterday from a sample of 600; a Morgan phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evening from a sample of 571; and a Morgan face-to-face poll conducted last weekend from a sample of 1004. Galaxy only canvassed opinion on the budget; Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll canvassed the budget and voting intention; the Morgan face-to-face poll, obviously, missed the budget and only looked at voting intention.

First on voting intention. Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll are in agreement on two-party preferred, which amounts to a combined sample of 1771 putting the result at 58-42 to the Coalition. On the primary vote, Nielsen has Labor up a point on the previous poll six weeks ago to 28%, the Coalition up two to 49% and the Greens down one to 12%. Even allowing for the small sample and high margin of error, the state breakdowns offer the truly extraordinary result of a Labor primary vote in Queensland of 19%, compared with a previous worst of 21% in July last year (and perhaps suggesting a honeymoon for the state government has added a bit of fuel to federal Labor’s recent poll collapse). Remarkably, the poll still has Labor ahead 54-46 in Victoria.

Morgan’s phone poll has the primary votes at 29% for Labor, 50.5% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote at 29.5%, down half a point on their previous worst-ever result in the last poll of April 21/22 (there was evidently no polling conducted on the weekend of April 28/29). The Coalition was also down two points, to 45.5%, and with the Greens steady at 12%, the slack has been taken up by “others”. At 13%, the latter figure is at levels unseen since One Nation and the Democrats were substantial concerns, although other, more reliable polls aren’t replicating this. Records have also been set on the two-party preferred figures: the 60.5-39.5 respondent-allocated result is Labor’s worst ever, but the gap between this figure and the 55.5-44.5 previous-election result is also at an all-time high, the previous highest being two polls ago in early April.

Regarding the budget:

• Nielsen and Galaxy both asked respondents if it would leave them better or worse, producing results of 27% better off and 43% worse off in Nielsen’s case, and 23% and 46% in Galaxy’s.

• Morgan has 19% rating the budget good, 43% average and 25% bad; 29.5% believing the surplus would eventuate and 60% believing it wouldn’t; and 49% considering a surplus important and 47.5% believing otherwise. The latter result is remarkably different to what Essential Research elicited a month ago when it framed the question thus: “Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?” That produced respective results of 12% and 73%.

• Galaxy asked if respondents believed the Coalition would have done better, which is the one question that allows ready comparison with the three questions Newspoll has been asking after each budget since the late 1980s (Newspoll also asks about impact on personal finances, but it explicitly offers respondents an “unchanged” option which invariably proves very popular). The results were 29% yes and 43% no, which is a surprisingly positive result for the government (or, more likely, a negative one for the opposition) – better for them than Newspoll’s 2010 and 2011 results, and close to Newspoll’s long-term averages of 29.5% and 47.6%.

• Galaxy also found only 17% anticipating that carbon tax compensation would be adequate against 62% who said it would not be.

So much for the good news for Julia Gillard. Personal ratings from Nielsen show up the following:

• Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred Labor leader has further blown out, to 62-30 in a head-to-head contest with Gillard from 58-34 when the question was last asked immediately before the leadership challenge.

• With other leadership options included, the results are 42% for Rudd, 19% for Gillard, 12% for Stephen Smith, 9% for Simon Crean, 8% for Bill Shorten and 4% for Greg Combet.

• Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has blown out from 48-45 to 50-42, returning him to where he was in September.

• Abbott has also scored his best personal ratings since July last year, his approval up five points on the previous poll to 44% and disapproval down four to 52%.

• Gillard has at least not gone backwards on her own personal ratings, although the starting point was quite dismal enough: 35% approval (down one) and 60% disapproval (up one).

UPDATE: Essential Research is at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are the monthly personal ratings, which are little changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,219 comments on “Budget polling: Nielsen, Galaxy and Morgan”

Comments Page 2 of 85
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  1. [William, in 2003, where did most of the “Others” end up parking their vote? Can you answer that?]

    Currently Morgan publishes results for Labor, Lib/Nat, Greens and “others”. In 2003, it did so for One Nation and the Democrats as well. At the poll to which I referred, the figures were 3.5% Democrats, 4.5% One Nation and 5% others. This adds up to 13%, which is equal to the “others” result in today’s poll.

  2. So Abbott wants everyone to learn Asian Languages and Pyne wants Asian Engagement taken out of the curriculum. Go on media put some calls in, you have a story to write.

  3. [61 new telework partners sign on as NBN takes off
    A further 61 organisations across Australia have signed up to promote telework and participate in National Telework Week, the Minister for Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy, Senator Stephen Conroy, announced today.

    “By embracing telework, organisations can free up their employees to work away from the office and with more flexible arrangements. Work is what you do, not where you do it. The Government’s investment in fast, affordable broadband through the National Broadband Network should see telework increase across the country,” Senator Conroy said.

    “The NBN allows employees to work in high-definition interactive environments from wherever they are, be it at home or elsewhere. This increases workplace productivity and can reduce the need for long daily commutes to the office. This will make a big difference to people’s work-life balance.”

    The significant increase in National Telework Partners to seventy-six reflects strong employer interest in the expected benefits of the NBN for the telework experience.

    Pip Marlow, Managing Director of Microsoft Australia, said “I want Microsoft employees to wake up every morning and know that they can achieve their best because they have the flexibility to work in a style, location, and time that best suits them. I want them to be supported by the technology that brings that to life.” ]

    Suffer in you jocks Turnbull.

    http://www.minister.dbcde.gov.au/media/media_releases/2012/066

  4. [Crap Bruce.]

    I think Bruce is defending himself as much as Chris The Interrupterer. Poor Bruce can hardly admit that he made the wrong choice in giving Chris a job he is patently unqualified to hold.

    Keating was spot on.

  5. DL

    Minchin weighing in as well is interesting. Minchin also repeated today that the coalition shoiuld back off on Thomson. I am expecting blowback for the Libs re Thomson and Slipper, and Abbott, Pyne and a few others are in the frame

  6. Concera Vota‏@conceravota

    So Laurie Oakes has an exclusive? Is it a climax or an anti-climax? I can’t wait till he comes on. NOT

  7. Son of foro,
    Bruce is upset because the comments Keating’s piece brought forth were not as he (Bruce) expected in that the majority of them appeared to agree with Keating.

  8. [So Laurie Oakes has an exclusive? Is it a climax or an anti-climax? I can’t wait till he comes on. NOT]

    NOT this early on a Friday night.

    The image of Laurie Oakes climaxing is too unsettling before the bottle of Chauteu Plonk-de-Plonk is down to at least half mast.

  9. William

    Is it appropriate for Thomson to give an interview to the likes of Oakes before his promised address to Parliament?

  10. [Joe Hockey laid down the law to Michael Kroger in Melbourne today after the former Victorian party powerbroker used ABC Radio to launch an explosive attack on former treasurer Peter Costello.]

    Not the way I viewed the footage ABC. Kroger menaced Hockey – Hockey backed off.

  11. [William

    Is it appropriate for Thomson to give an interview to the likes of Oakes before his promised address to Parliament?]

    Nooo keep him locked away in solitary confinement will people throw shit at him, much fairer.

  12. [Oh ABC Management have realised what Online are upto.

    Editor’s Note

    Paul Keating’s attack on Chris Uhlmann’s interview of a fellow Labor Prime Minister demonstrates an understandable tribal loyalty. Keating sent it unsolicited to The Drum and we published it because this site has a culture of open and robust debate.
    ………….
    ABC political anchors, from Richard Carleton to Kerry O’Brien. Chris Uhlmann, widely respected in Canberra and amongst his colleagues as a decent, intelligent and no-nonsense journalist, continues a fine tradition.

    Bruce Belsham

    Head ABC Current Affairs]

    Considering the total disrespect that interview showed for the prime minister is is clear the problems at the ABC go a lot deeper than Chris Uhlmann, that is, if Bruce Belsham was really ignorant enough to pen this.

  13. [Bruce is upset because the comments Keating’s piece brought forth were not as he (Bruce) expected in that the majority of them appeared to agree with Keating.]

    Exactly right.

    Bruce just needs to admit that Uhlman isn’t up to the job. Far from being widely regarded as one of Australia’s most respected interviewers, Uhlaman is in fact widely regarded as the opposite of that: out of his depth and relying on interrupting his guests because he doesn’t have the confidence to compete with them intellectually.

    Keating got it right and the comments show that he’s not alone in his criticisms. Far from it.

  14. [Paul Keating’s attack on Chris Uhlmann’s interview of a fellow Labor Prime Minister demonstrates an understandable tribal loyalty.]

    Tribal loyalty my arse. It was appropriate and considered criticism of a poor, poor interview, written out of a concern for journalistic standards.

    Deal with it, Bruce. Uhlman can’t cut it.

  16. At least we now know outright rudeness is encouraged by the ABC management. The odd thing is any professional journalist should know that it is respectful but probing interviews that deliver the big stories, not combative hosts who think they are the story.

    This is why 730, Q and A and Lateline have all degenerated in tandem with Uhlmann and Jones getting elevated to star talent as opposed to journalists.

    Class acts like O’Brien and Olle never saw themselves as the stars of their shows, the people they interviewed were.

    Defining this discussion in terms of bias one way or the other misses the far more serious point of the decline in standards at the ABC.

    This is the one forum that should not be influenced by vested interests. Management tolerating ego-driven talent more concerned about how they look than the interviews they conduct are doing long-term damage to the organisation’s reputation.

    So too is the lack of investment in staff that now sees ABC outlets basically read AAP or News Ltd copy into radio news bulletins and run the same copy undedited on websites.

  17. [David Solomon‏@davidcat56

    @LaurieOakes I hope you are at your forensic best. Good luck

    15m LaurieOakes‏@LaurieOakes

    @davidcat56 I’ll do me best.Thanks.]

    Well Channel 9 must not be too concerned that Thomson is going to defame anyone if he does the interview live. Given the exposure that will get any defo damages would be dwarved.

  18. How about a death match Uhlmann v Keating on interview techniques, come on Chris you know you can do it. 😆

  19. Hi fellow MNC Poll Bludgers have arrived home safely What a lovely day, glorious Mid North coast weather, good food wonderful company, many thanks Lyne Lady for opening up your beautiful house to us. By the way think we have solved all problems????

  20. [My question was simply about process and parliamentary procedures nothing more.]

    Thomson is a Member of Parliament, he can do whatever he wishes.

  23. roaldan1000

    [Class acts like O’Brien and Olle never saw themselves as the stars of their shows, the people they interviewed were]

    Exactly the case

  24. On an Uhlmann related theme Manchester United played a game in Perth many years ago.

    In front of a sell-out crowd the referee decided to send of legendary United player Denis Law. A few years later I was lucky enough to interview Law and asked him what his response was as he was sent off.

    “I told him that the crowd had come to see me not a stupid ****** with a whistle.”

    Uhlmann reminds me of that referee. He thinks we tune (or in my case tuned) in to watch him. We don’t, we tune it so see what the guests have to say.

  26. [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 22m
    Sophie Mirabella says Cossie is ‘one of the most honest and decent politicians ever seen and he does not deserve to be treated this way.’]

  28. [@theburgerman

    A submission from Mr Thomson’s lawyers to the FWA says witnesses heard a rival official of the HSU threaten to “Ruin Mr Thomson’s life …]

    [@theburgerman

    “… to destroy his political ambitions and to set him up with a bunch of hookers and ruin him.”]

  35. victoria

    It could explain the Thomson interview with Oakes. He intends to upend the bucket out of parliamentary privilege so people have more reason to believe what he says.

  36. o you believe Tony Abbott can find $50 billion more in savings before the next election.

    Yes

    No

    Disclaimer: These polls are not scientific and reflect the opinion only of visitors who have chosen to participate.

    23%yes

    77% no

  37. ruawake @ 1

    [Who is the most Senior Victorian on the Libs front bench?]

    It’s the Member for Grecian 2000, Kevin Andrews. The poor people of Menzies have been suffering under him since 1991. Robb is a relative newbie – first elected 2004.

  40. Victoria 6.19pm

    How are you going?

    On your question, I find it hard to read a newspaper and haven’t watched TV news in Australia for about 9 – 12 months. The way they phrase their reporting makes me wild.

    There is only one career below journalism in Australia that I wouldn’t want my daughter to pursue.

  41. [Crap Bruce.]

    Indeed.

    I would go further, actually. If the Keating piece had been written and had remainded either pretty much uncommented on, or if the comments heavily favoured Uhlmann, I would strongly suggest that the ABC management wouldn’t have weighed into the argument at all.

    The problem for them was the comments were very heavily AGAINST Uhlmann and his interviewing style and strongly supporting Keating’s comments.

    Also, Keating wasn’t levelling impertinence against HIMSELF; he was calling it as he saw it happen to someone else.

    This is one criticism – in private, at least – the ABC need to take on the chin.

    Uhlmann IS rude; he IS disrespectful and he IS arrogant when dealing with this *particular* Prime Minister. It is interesting that Keating avoided direct accusations of bias when compared with his interview technique when dealing with Tony Abbott, but the commentors certainly weren’t backwards at going forwards on that issue.

    The fact is the ABC have two options with Uhlmann, either counsel him to fix his game or cop continued criticism. If they aren’t prepared to do the former then expect much more of the latter.

  42. 18982CFC

    Spot on! Even the reportage on the AFL has gone to the dogs. Every day, the journos are doing their best to dig up controversy. What about your team’s little stoush a few weeks re Malthouse and Buckley? A lot of hot air

  43. [Paul Keating’s attack on Chris Uhlmann’s interview of a fellow Labor Prime Minister demonstrates an understandable tribal loyalty. Keating sent it unsolicited to The Drum and we published it because this site has a culture of open and robust debate. But it cannot pass without comment. It is a personal and unreasonable assault on one of this country’s best political journalists and interviewers. Uhlmann’s interview with the Prime Minister canvassed the decisions made by her government to achieve a forecast budget surplus. He asked questions in the public mind – questions about savings made by breaking or shifting previous promises on business tax cuts, defence and foreign aid. He asked reasonably whether broken promises reflect on the credibility of the government and on its forecast. When the theme of credibility is infused into the very being of the current parliament, it’s a fair enough line of inquiry. Later parts of the interview were about cash bonuses, the carbon price and Julia Gillard’s judgement about Craig Thompson and Peter Slipper. These are matters that go to the heart of Julia Gillard’s prime ministership. I’ve just re-watched the interview. Chris’s tone throughout was respectful but probing, the appropriate tone for a political interviewer doing what political interviewers have always done – acting devil’s advocate for a public seeking to better understand its leaders. I’ve been around long enough to remember Prime Ministers and their acolytes levelling similar charges of impertinence against ABC political anchors, from Richard Carleton to Kerry O’Brien. Chris Uhlmann, widely respected in Canberra and amongst his colleagues as a decent, intelligent and no-nonsense journalist, continues a fine tradition.]

    A blatant lie, it was not an attack on one of this country’s best journalists, it was an attack on Uhlmann who has spent the time since Leigh Sales went on leave proving how crap his interview style is and how poor a journalist he really is.

  44. That 29.5 Labor primary in Morgan FF weekend May 5 after Brough story broke again confirms my contention that the govt’s flogging of the “conspiracy theory” implying veiled attacks on the character of the complainant in a sex harassment claim is just turning off the remaining Labor base voters even more. Govt should have remained on moral high ground and left the attacks/revelations to the media and Slipper’s defence lawyers.

  45. Think Big and Victoria,
    If that is true then it explains why Thomson was furious at the length of time FWA took over its investigations only to find they failed to follow up on his side of the story by not interviewing the witnesses he put forward.

  46. [There is only one career below journalism in Australia that I wouldn’t want my daughter to pursue.]

    LNP adviser?
    LNP staffer?
    LNP MP?

  47. janice2

    I dont pretend to know what is going on in the Thomson matter, but i get very negative vibes from Ms Kathy Jackson. She is not what she presents herself to be. She and her cohorts are up to their necks in crap

  49. [Danny we may be related]

    Most people whose Pommie ancestors were in England by 1100 are related – and ROYAL: between a third an a half are descendants of King Edward III.

    (Dinkum!)

  50. Danny Lewis

    [The fact is the ABC have two options with Uhlmann, either counsel him to fix his game or cop continued criticism. If they aren’t prepared to do the former then expect much more of the latter]

    Should be told he will not get a Logie with his attitude.

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