Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition

Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for a 26% result in the September 16-18 poll, this would be the lowest primary vote Labor had ever recorded since Newspoll commenced in 1985. The two-party figure ranks as the Gillard government’s equal worst result, along with the poll of September 2-4. Newspoll hasn’t always reported two-party preferred results, but my own calculations tell me there remain unbroken records from the respective honeymoon periods of Rudd (63-37 in February/March 2008) and Howard (60.5-39.5 in April 1996). Julia Gillard is up a point on disapproval to 63% and steady on approval at 28%, while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 55%. Tony Abbott has widened the preferred prime minister lead he gained in the previous poll, from 41-39 to 41-36. As always, the sample for the poll was around 1150, with a margin of error of 3%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,396 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 128
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  1. Yep, this is it. These were the ones they were saving to get rid of Gillard and install Abbott in The Lodge.

    Apparently we are supposedly going to run around like headless chooks now.

  4. Tom Paine is, unfortunately-for-all-business-as-normal folk, once again correct

    “Maaaate… the problem is gillard, plain and simple.”
    problem is party has so bullied and pilloried the devil of their own creation that they might find it very hard to rationalise and doublethink and accept rudd back. but one thing is as sure of abbot’s inevitable and necessary destruction – they will

  6. [ So, the ALP has to now consider which seats it wishes to save. Do they just retreat to the 10% margin line or look at the talent it wishes to protect? ]

    The Brisbane line is gone!

    The next fall-back is probably somewhere around Woolongong! 😉

  7. Puff

    Yes. It also means if we question the poll being specifically bad, but not the trend then we must be living in delusion.

  8. [It is the Labor caucus that take polls too seriously, not the rest of us. ]

    This is surely an exercise in humour. It is Tony Abbott who continues to serve as leader at the behest of the polling, not Julia Gillard.

    It is the coalition who are locked into do-nothingness at the behest of the current polling, not the ALP who continue to implement reform.

    Who exactly is it then who takes polling too seriously?

  9. ian@86

    tend to agree I have all modern comunication systems which mudoch does not understand ,and yet to ring my daughter on her iPhone in sydney costs me 81c to leave a message as it goes to answer or whatever .think phone polls are a huge joke.

  10. [This election result could be as big as Holts win in 1966!]

    The current polls are much better for the Coalition than the 1966 election result.

  11. Gary

    [rummel

    the real question is not Slipper but will Gillard cry during her concession speech?]

    Can the Libs call a no confidence vote on Slipper before he gives his ta ta i will see you soon speech.

  12. Gary

    [rummel

    the real question is not Slipper but will Gillard cry during her concession speech?]

    Can the Libs call a no confidence vote on Slipper before he gives his ta ta i will see you soon speech.

  15. feel guilty raising leadership at present as situation is serious and msm have exaggerated everything – problem is JG is a sitting target and always has been.
    noone wants leadership issue just now – but fact is folk like myself and tom have been saying this for a loonnnggg time – all last year – it has been consistent, not a kneejerk thing about current polls. and not one day, one event, one poll, has caused one doubt in an opinion formed in the dark days of mid 2010.

  16. [Its done. Nobody likes her.]

    So lets change subject since everything is already decided.

    Lets talk about how there is no need to have an election campaign, where the Coalition and their backers will most likely put their feet in their mouths. How there is no need for a campaign where the ALP or other groups can advertise to bypass the hysterical media.

    Lets just go straight to a parliament where the Coalition can be given 70% of the seats because that’s what a opinion poll 16 months from an election indicated. And as we know from history opinion polls 16 months from an election have a 100% record of turning out true.

    Doing things this way makes life much easier.

  19. [The next fall-back is probably somewhere around Woolongong!]
    No worries Scorps I’ll get out the old Tommy gun and stand guard 😆

    Mayday Mayday
    May Day today, now what did I do with that pole….

  20. [Your household does not count. Your wife and yourself cancel each other out.]

    Wrong. My wife cancels me out, thus we are a Labor household.

  21. [ Can the Libs call a no confidence vote on Slipper before he gives his ta ta i will see you soon speech. ]

    Not unless they have some magical way of inserting a Speaker into the chair before the current Speaker, Mr Slipper takes his place Tuesday morning.

  22. CC

    Ask William the difference between Newspoll and all other polls when not close to an election.

    This poll is bad because of the full on assault by the MSM and Oppn calling the successful government a failure. Plus not reaching mobile phones.

    Why do I say government is successful when Thomson and Slipper hang over it?
    Abbott has brought the government down to its level in the polls over this issue for this poll with his msm mates. Yet Abbot will still be Opposition leader for the next 18 months or perhaps if Slipper and Thomson are found guilty of allegations. Not before.

  23. CC

    Ask William the difference between Newspoll and all other polls when not close to an election.

    This poll is bad because of the full on assault by the MSM and Oppn calling the successful government a failure. Plus not reaching mobile phones.

    Why do I say government is successful when Thomson and Slipper hang over it?
    Abbott has brought the government down to its level in the polls over this issue for this poll with his msm mates. Yet Abbot will still be Opposition leader for the next 18 months or perhaps if Slipper and Thomson are found guilty of allegations. Not before.

  24. that is pretty ugly for both leaders

    Gillard: Approve 28 (0) Disapprove 63 (+1)
    Abbott: Approve 33 (-2) Disapprove 55 (+1)

  29. Big girls do not cry,only abbott crys about being robbed at his bank for being in opposition through his own fault wanting to destry the NBn.

    Your wish:the real question is not Slipper but will Gillard cry during her concession speech?

    think abbott will be the cryer as he is only full of bleats on a daily basis,wonder what Sir Humprey would say about an election whinge on a daily basis

  30. #Newspoll Abbott: Approve 33 (-2) Disapprove 55 (+1) #auspol
    #Newspoll Gillard: Approve 28 (0) Disapprove 63 (+1) #auspol

    Both Abbott and Gillard lost ground.

  31. vera,

    We might have to call on the services of Bushfire Bill’s little dog too!

    It seems it is pretty good at disposing of rats! 😉

  33. [Ha ha ha Saint Kev from QLD playing Labor Games. A very importent message vote for me.]

    Thats even better……….. Kev has now deleted that tweet lol. Sorry Kev i was to quick lol 🙂

  34. Gary Sparrow: It might serve Labor right if they are reduced to 30 seats, particularly if they still go to the election with Julia as leader.

  36. Rummel: Rudd is in China this week visiting his son, I suspect he’ll be staying very quiet about the mess back home.

  37. #Newspoll Abbott: Approve 33 (-2) Disapprove 55 (+1) #auspol

    this is the weak spot. Labor are yet to exploit it.

  40. Middle Man: Best way to exploit Abbott’s unpopularity – replace Gillard with Rudd.
    Has everyone forgotten Kev burying Abbott in that health debate early in 2010?

  44. spur 212

    yes

    (and to think only a week ago i was being villified here for speaking up for rudd – and the month before that, and all the year before that)

  46. [Yes, we could just hand the keys to the Lodge to Tony now, why wait 16 monnths?]

    It would certainly make bluegreen and Mod Lib happy. You know, I do sometimes wonder what it would be like watching Hockey give a budget speech. What excuses he would come up with when his third budget is in deficit. How all the promises they made had to be postponed because of Labor debt. It would be amusing to watch. Giving $75k to rich people having babies while cutting payments to the poorest would be interesting. Sort of like the UK government at the moment.

    Just have to make sure I’m not a poor bastard under the Coalition and all will be well 🙂

  47. [So lets change subject since everything is already decided.

    Lets talk about how there is no need to have an election campaign, where the Coalition and their backers will most likely put their feet in their mouths. How there is no need for a campaign where the ALP or other groups can advertise to bypass the hysterical media.

    Lets just go straight to a parliament where the Coalition can be given 70% of the seats because that’s what a opinion poll 16 months from an election indicated. And as we know from history opinion polls 16 months from an election have a 100% record of turning out true.

    Doing things this way makes life much easier.]

    Sounds fair and just. 😉 And hey, there’s been so many crap polls lately, what’s one more to add to the pile for the moment? No point sugarcoating it, but its not an actual election, and unsurprising given the coverage of things has somehow become even more vicious in the last fortnight.

  48. mm

    This is why you do not despair by listening to the trolls. Facts are clear. This is the low point for the government. Howard had a similar low point roughly at the same time.
    Scare campaign on carbon tax is failing. Saw one real anecdotal example of that on QandQ tonight.
    Gillard has been cheered by thousands in Sydney and the government by thousands more around the country. This before things really start to pick up with the changes on July 1

  49. Burgey,

    [The election next year will be nothing like the Vietnam election in 1966. ]

    It’s looking a bit like the My Lai massacre at the moment.

    Where there’s life, there’s hope but the heartbeat is getting fainter! 😉

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