Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for a 26% result in the September 16-18 poll, this would be the lowest primary vote Labor had ever recorded since Newspoll commenced in 1985. The two-party figure ranks as the Gillard government’s equal worst result, along with the poll of September 2-4. Newspoll hasn’t always reported two-party preferred results, but my own calculations tell me there remain unbroken records from the respective honeymoon periods of Rudd (63-37 in February/March 2008) and Howard (60.5-39.5 in April 1996). Julia Gillard is up a point on disapproval to 63% and steady on approval at 28%, while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 55%. Tony Abbott has widened the preferred prime minister lead he gained in the previous poll, from 41-39 to 41-36. As always, the sample for the poll was around 1150, with a margin of error of 3%.
BBS
That right, its more likely 14-15 months as hanging onto the death isn’t taken very well.
CC
According to Tony Abbott they should.
confessions. i’d hate to say JWH was ever right……..
People are transposing experiences of 16 and 11 year old governments onto one that isn’t even 5 years old. I urge caution.
And TROLLS OUT AT MIDNIGHT
night all. off to kiss the cherubs goodnight and hope that before they know whats happening Abbott had been and gone, and that not too much damage has been done by him.
[Yes it matters. There are mobile only households. Unreachable by Newspoll.]
Would you have us seriously believe that mobile only households vote differently to those that have a landline? What a self delusional load of rubbish. Essential are showing the same trend and they do it online .
Guytaur
I expected this result, actually I expected worse with the Slipper/Thomson beat ups. But these are their last two cartridges. They fired both barrells and got a movement of just 3 either way. Now there they have nothing left. Seventeen months to go and nothing left, how hilarious.
PTMD. nothing left? are you sure???
[Rudd will be crucified second time round by #newscorpse – sort of a reverse Lazarus rising. If the ALP succumb to the hysteria to change leaders its all over red rover.
2.30pm tomorrow interest rate cut, budget surplus next week leading to more of the same, June the Clean Energy Advance hitting everone’s bank accounts, July 1 the carbon tax does not destroy the world….]
Hahah… the rationalisations become more and more rickety.
Maaaate… the problem is gillard, plain and simple.
bbp
Yes they are different. Mobile only households tend to younger age bracket and technologically savvy with better access to information.
This makes for skewed results for this poll.
TP. its not just gillard. i doubt any leader could repair the damage done.
[Mod Lib.
Trust me, Gillard is the best person to lead Labor to the next election.]
For us, yes… but it just amazes me that so few people here have cottoned on to that!
TP. actually i’ll say now… there is no one the ALP can put forward who could turn this around. its a sad day.
Puff … Nothing Left … Remember that it was this government that created both Slipper and Thomson. The political track record suggests that they can shoot themselves in the foot a few more times between now and the next election.
PUff
Yes I agree. I am just pointing out to the gloating Libs they are gloating too much on the basis of a skewed poll. Skewed through methodology. Pointing to other polls does not change the methodology of this one.
Yet another reason to buy The Australian tomorrow morning 😀
Gillard is the soufflé that has never risen…
TP
If they can’t stomach going back to Rudd….surely they’ll get Smith or Shorten to save the furniture?
This election result could be as big as Holts win in 1966!
[disputes over wills are on about the same level as getting a Divorce. Should all MPs going through divorces stand down?
Speed Camera fines are Traffic Offences but not the same as a Dangerous Driving charge.]
A wholly over-simplification of what she’s actually been accused of. PBers can re-acquaint themselves wth Sophie’s dillemma here.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/sophies-choice-the-professor-the-politician-and-the-family-feud-20110922-1knbz.html
And are you really equating traffic offenses with allegedly dudding an old man’s offspring out of their rightful inheritance?
I think back to how before the Rudd assassination Julia Gillard’s surrogates were showing around internal polling showing how under Rudd Labor was going to do horribly. And how confident Gillard sounded – so arrogant, so sure of herself – when she became PM and told us all how she was going to fix things – to fix up the government that had lost its way.
And just look at her now. Oh, how I love it. She is a disaster. The months go by and she tries and she tries but the people just aren’t having it. They’ve made up their minds. They don’t want her.
And how embarrassing it is for her – how shameful – to be doing this badly when your opponents are an absolute joke and are led by a man who should be unelectable in any ordinary circumstances. Oh dear oh dear, what is Labor to do?
They’re going to get rid of her, the only question is will it be a fresh face or the Ruddster back again.
@50 Confessions – JWH wasn’t wrong – however the ALP wasn’t ending up using Maxicabs to transport the ALP Parliamentary Party.
[That right, its more likely 14-15 months as hanging onto the death isn’t taken very well.]
I can see what is going to happen here.
Every few months as nothing changes, or there is MOE move in the polls, people will be saying that in few month things will begin to turn around….and so on…and that closer to the election things will be better. Like a driver driving on empty, telling themselves they can still get across town.
[Essential are showing the same trend and they do it online .]
Not to mention Morgan Face to Face….and not to mention what anyone will hear if they turn the computer off, walks outside of their home, and speak to any Australian voter!!! You get the impression that the ALP heavies just go from Sussex street to their mansions and back, without encountering any voters.
LSL. i doubt Rudd will be back.
[Hahah… the rationalisations become more and more rickety.
Maaaate… the problem is gillard, plain and simple.]
Sorry TP, Gillard was the problem. Labor destroyed kev to keep her as PM and as such Labor is just as much the problem as Gillard. There is no “out” any more. MAD
Hi Thomas Paine and Mod Lib, 2 against 10 thousand 😆
Guytaur
You seem to miss the point that newspoll has demographic brackets on age and gender – and the brackets are quite narrow. They keep going until they get the demographic quota. Which part of that do you not grasp?
Hey LIEberals. Guess what today happened. There were crowds, real crowds out cheering the Prime Minister. QandA happened.
Oh and a little thing called Clive Palmer happened.
I think you better rethink your gloating.
It is not over until the fat lady sings.
rummel
the real question is not Slipper but will Gillard cry during her concession speech?
Glen
Why 66 rather than 75?
Have we become like nazi germany at the will of abbott,brandis and abetz,
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1646513/Thomson-distances-himself-from-HSU-East
Oh for heaven’s sake people! If I had a dollar for every time you lot turned up here at the sight of bad polling hand-wringing and wailing away, I wouldn’t have to work.
Polls go up and down. Up. And. Down. They capture a representative snapshot in time. There is a long way to go to the next election, and a lot can happen between now and then Remember 2009 and the Labor vote? A lot can happen.
bbp
It does not matter. Mobile only households are UNREACHABLE by Newspoll. It does not matter what their age bracket is.
Also we’ve heard ALP internal polling suggesting….
0 ALP seats in WA and QLD!
[1966 – Liberal-Country Coalition won 82 of the 124 seats and a 56.9% TPP in the House of Representatives]
TPP was almost 57% and who knows it could get as bad but test you are right the LNP won more seats in 75 than 66.
[There were crowds, real crowds out cheering the Prime Minister]
They would have cheered Ivan Milat if he had promised the money
I have no idea why everyone is giving it up. It’s not as though we didn’t expect this. Julia Gillard and the Government have just come through one of the most toxic periords of political bastardry I have ever seen in this country. They are still standing. You must always remember one thing…despair destroys, confidence creates.
At the risk of gaining WB’s ire i reckon that after hacking a murdered girls phone, politicians computers and the Heavens only know what else, nudging an opinion poll in the right direction, in a country of only 23 odd million, spread apart, with the ownership of the home phone plummeting, would be childs play. Pay it no heed. Ultimately these polls will be shown up to be as flawed as the political philosophy that engineered them. Just keep this in mind. All it takes is one person of courage, to speak out, to bring it all down on their heads. One person of courage. They may possibly be reading this now.
Remember what they are trying to do. In essence they want to render your birthright…the value of your vote…worthless.
Democracy may be flawed…but is the greatest gift you can give your childrens children….and consider the moral fibre, ethical make up and the empty courage that those who wish to steal it away.
[I think you better rethink your gloating.
It is not over until the fat lady sings.]
Its done. Nobody likes her.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
[That is it, that’s all there is?
So much gloom and doom, huff and stuff, toil and trouble for just -3 +3?
😆 😆 😆 ]
Gotta agree! I reckon it really will be time to start to get concerned when Labor is getting towards the 10/90 2PP figure.
Might be worth while having a look at plan B then! 😉
@TP/60
Thomas you haven’t learnt from anyone from the UK have you?
Murdoch would back any party THEY THOUGHT They have a chance to win…..
That means they have INFLUENCE in politics for MONEY.
@GS/83
I like how you do selectively…..
REMEMBER ML and others.
I am not disputing trend. I am saying this poll is an outlier. It is more negative and out of sync with trend because of two factors. The “dark cloud” over Parliament when this poll was taken and not being able to reach mobile phone users necessarily skew the results.
It is the Labor caucus that take polls too seriously, not the rest of us. We only take them seriously because we know that polls like this one are likely to force Labor to do something stupid (again).
But Guytaur …. why ffs is a mobile only household going to vote differently if they are the same age and gender … it is a demographic sample … and why is the final newspoll before an election usually the one that is closest to the actual result?
I’m still waiting for Kev to take 15 ALP MPs and quit Labor and start up their own Party on the cross benches ala Lyons 😀 lol
Ian/86
+1
[JWH wasn’t wrong]
So you’ve just made a mockery of your own claims.
I repeat what I said last night lamenting the absence of intelligent Liberals on this board.
The Coalition will no doubt be strongly considering a decapitation strategy.
So, the ALP has to now consider which seats it wishes to save. Do they just retreat to the 10% margin line or look at the talent it wishes to protect?
bbp
Mobile only households general have the internet on. So like you they see lots more information than just the commercial and abc news served up on the tele and newspapers.
new batteries for the torch… new batteries for the wireless… thats important. we’ll need to know when its safe to come outside again…
Gary Sparrow,
[ Also we’ve heard ALP internal polling suggesting….
[0 ALP seats in WA and QLD! ]
They’re not worried about those Glen. they intend to make up for them in Western Sydney! 😉
[It does not matter. Mobile only households are UNREACHABLE by Newspoll. It does not matter what their age bracket is.]
Yep and thats my household lol, would you like another % registered against Gillard 🙂