Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

Essential Research has Labor recovering a badly needed point on the two-party preferred vote, with the Coalition’s lead back to 56-44 after rising to 57-43 last week. On the primary vote, Labor is up one to 32 per cent, the Coalition down one to 48 per cent and the Greens up one to 11 per cent. The survey also finds opposition to Australian’s involvement in Afghanistan little changed since November at 64 per cent, with 21 per cent wanting the current presence to be maintained and 4 per cent wanting it increased. Forty-four per cent agreed women were not “respected and treated fairly” in the defence forces against 31 per cent who thought they were, with a strong gender gap recorded in the expected direction. A timely question on Wikileaks had 53 per cent supporting its release of material against 26 per cent opposed, with 36 per cent believing the government had failed to provide sufficient support to Julian Assange in his legal travails, 22 per cent believing he had received appropriate support and 41 per cent saying they didn’t know. The survey also found strong support for unions, with 48 per cent saying they had been good for workers against 17 per cent bad, and 56 per cent agreeing they remained important for working people against only 19 per cent who disagreed.

Plenty of further recent news to report, most of it involving preselections, and most of it involving the Liberals.

• Patrick Secker, who has held the rural South Australian seat of Barker for the Liberals since 1998, has been defeated for preselection by Mount Gambier lawyer Tony Pasin. Sarah Martin of The Australian reports Secker received only 78 votes in the local ballot, despite personal endorsement from Tony Abbott and moderate SA powerbroker Christopher Pyne, against 164 for Pasin and 40 for a third candidate, Millicent real estate agent and Wattle Range councillor Ben Treloar.

• No such difficulties for Boothby MP Andrew Southcott, who trounced former state party president Christopher Moriarty in a late February preselection ballot by 195 votes to 35, with also-ran Mark Nankivell gaining nine votes. Rebecca Puddy of The Australian reports that “much of the support for Mr Moriarty had disappeared after the federal Labor leadership challenge became apparent”. Like Patrick Secker, Southcott has come under fire within the party over his poor fundraising efforts.

Krystyna Pollard of the Blue Mountains Gazette reports that Louise Markus, the Liberal member for Macquarie, had little trouble seeing off a challenge from Charles Wurf, state division chief executive of the Aged Care Association of Australia, at a ballot held on February 25.

• The Liberals have again preselected marketing executive Fiona Scott, who also ran in 2010, as their candidate for Lindsay. The ABC’s Mark Tobin related on Twitter that Scott won the ballot held last weekend with 62 votes to 42 for Robyn Preston, a Hills Shire councillor. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that teacher Margaret Brand was also in the field.

• David Coleman, director of strategy and digital for Nine Entertainment, won a Liberal preselection ballot on the weekend for the Sydney seat of Banks, where Labor’s Daryl Melham had his margin cut from 10.4 per cent to 1.5 per cent in 2010. The Australian’s Media Diary describes Coleman as a factional moderate and “one of David Gyngell’s closest lieutenants”. Mark Tobin of the ABC announced on Twitter that Coleman won 60 votes at the local preselection ballot against 33 for Ron Delezio, a businessman who came to public attention after his daughter Sophie received horrific injuries in separate accidents in 2003 and 2006.

Chris Paver of the Illawarra Mercury reports that five candidates have nominated to succeed the retiring Joanna Gash as Liberal candidate for the south coast NSW seat of Gilmore: Shoalhaven Deputy Mayor Andrew Guile, former Kiama councillor Ann Sudmalis, Ulladulla resident Grant Schultz, Nowra businessman Clive Brooks and Meroo Meadow marketing consultant Catherine Shields. Guile, a one-time staffer to Gash who has since fallen out with her, was rated as the front-runner in a report in the Mercury last October.

• Michael Burr, described by the Burnie Advocate as a “high-profile Devonport real estate business owner”, has won Liberal preselection for the Tasmanian seat of Braddon, which Sid Sidebottom holds for Labor on a margin of 7.5 per cent. Also in the field were Glynn Williams, a North Motton farmer and lawyer described by Chris Pippos of the Burnie Advocate as “ultra conservative”, and Jacqui Lambie, described in the local press only as a “Devonport woman”. Sean Ford of the Burnie Advocate reports that Burr’s backers included Senators Richard Colbeck and Stephen Parry and state MP Adam Brooks. It was thought that Brett Whiteley, who lost his state seat in Braddon at the 2010 election, might be another contender, but he announced in the week before the preselection ballot that he would instead focus on a return to state politics.

• ABC Television reported last night that Joe Bullock, the powerful state secretary of the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, is eyeing off Mark Bishop’s position at the top of Labor’s WA Senate ticket. Bishop, who was a number-counter for Kevin Rudd in his recent leadership challenge, says he is still considering whether to seek another term. The other Labor Senator up for re-election is Louise Pratt; there have been suggestions that Labor’s position in Western Australia is so parlous it might only return one Senator, which would be an Australian electoral first.

John Ferguson of The Australian reports that a complex factional realignment in the Victorian ALP might yet save the career of Senator David Feeney, who at present is stuck with the highly precarious third position on the Senate ticket and is up for re-election next year. Feeney has been adrift of the dominant Bill Shorten-Stephen Conroy grouping in the Victorian Right since early 2009, when the former established a “stability alliance” which excluded Right unions the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, the National Union of Workers and the Health Services Union. However, a deal was reached last month which brought the SDA back into the fold and allowed one of its members in the state parliament, James Merlino, to succeed the outgoing Rob Hulls as deputy leader. Sources quoted by Ferguson say that another aspect of the agreement was that if Feeney “failed to gain a winnable seat at the election, he would be accommodated after the poll, probably via a by-election”.

• The federal redistribution of South Australia’s electoral boundaries has been finalised with no amendment to the draft boundaries proposed in August, which were summarised thus by Antony Green.

• The NSW government will introduce legislation to prohibit members of parliament from also serving as councillors, which if passed would require independent Clover Moore to choose between her gigs as lord mayor of Sydney and state member for the Sydney electorate. The move would take effect when local government elections, including the election for the lord mayoralty, are held in September. Newly elected members would be obliged to relinquish council positions within 18 months. The legislation is supported by the Shooters Party but opposed by the Greens, leaving the swing votes in the upper house in the hands of the two Christian Democratic Party members. The Daily Telegraph reports the government is waiting on Fred Nile to be discharged from hospital before pursuing the matter with them, as it presumably does not have high hopes for his party colleague Paul Green, who is also the mayor of Shoalhaven. The Sydney Morning Herald relates that 29 current members of parliament would be affected by the change, among them 17 Liberals, four Greens, four Labor, two independents and one each from the Nationals and the Christian Democrats, although few doubt that a desire to target Moore has been high on the government’s list of motivations. While it is true that the move will, as Barry O’Farrell says, bring the state into line with Victoria, Western Australia, South Australia and Queensland, it is altogether unclear to me why it should not be left to voters to decide if they want a member of parliament serving them on council. Moore has indicated she would abandon her seat in parliament if forced to make a choice. She held off a strong challenge from Liberal candidate Adrian Bartels at last year’s election (which was mostly down to the huge swing from Labor to Liberal), surviving by 3.1 per cent after preferences. When asked by the Wentworth Courier, neither Bartels nor Liberal councillor and lord mayoralty candidate Shayne Mallard ruled out seeking preselection in the event of a by-election for Sydney.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,237 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. [But the opposition will not allow Thomson the rest of the week off without a more specific diagnosis – a dangerous and bizarre precedent.]

    That really is disgraceful. You are either too sick for work or you are not.

    I NEVER put the diagnosis on a patient’s medical certificate. I only ever put down “a medical condition”. It is not the employers business to know what the worker has.

    Pyne’s father, who was a very good eye specialist, would be turning in his grave.

  2. [sp rocket ‏ @sprocket___

    New variant on WorkChoices announced by Abbott – medical certificates no longer acceptable. #auspol]

    who is doing the Coalition strategy? in the week before the ALP is going to be wiped-out in QLD, they run some wierd-as attack on vague medical certifcates?

    Time for a shake-up in the backoffice Tony.

  3. [ waznaki Posted Monday, March 19, 2012 at 8:03 pm @ 93

    I tried to post an email to Entsch via his website this arvo after hearing his constipation diagnosis but it didn’t appear to send.

    Of all the stunts and, this has to be the lowest they’ve sunk yet. ]

    I’m not sure you can go much lower than not allowing Simon Crean and Malcolm Turnbull to pair so they could attend the funeral of Margaret Olley.

  4. Yes Diogenes, there is no one, no one, that the opposition wont trash to play their political games. Doctors arent immune now.
    A patient has a right to privacy regarding their medical problem.

  5. [Pyne’s father, who was a very good eye specialist, would be turning in his grave.]

    Perhaps Pyne had his father in mind…

  6. [His candidacy would appeal ostensibly to Greens voters, and leave the two competing for the same space.]

    Nice to be back here Bludgers

    confessions – Even tho Ludlam seems enthralled by Assange I wonder if it will turn out sadly for the Greens. Assange is not a fan of leftwing/progressive parties any longer and I thought I read where he said he wants to see the downfall of all left Govts everywhere. It seems to me that Ludlam is not asking the right questions.

  7. william@71:

    One way commenters might be able to help with the difficulties we’re having is to avoid placing unnecessary strain on the system by repeatedly stating the obvious about it.

    The other thing we could do is not to post anything, and then the system would be under no strain at all.

    William, get serious. If the crikey servers are that pathetic, crikey should just shut up shop.

    If they can’t stand the heat, they should stay out of the kitchen.

    Alternatively, PB should find another home. Crikey is not the only game in town, and they have demonstrated that they are not capable of hosting a blog of any kind.

    You work your guts out for this site, and crikey are not giving you a fair go. It has not escaped anyone’s notice that you are checking the blog far more than you are technically or morally required to (and the late night idiots should be banned for a couple of weeks when they step over the line while you are catching some well deserved kip).

    Crikey should either fish or cut bait.

    I have no idea why you continue, I would have told everybody to piss off long ago, but we are all grateful that you do continue to provide a wonderful service.

    Hang on in there.

  8. [I’m not sure you can go much lower than not allowing Simon Crean and Malcolm Turnbull to pair so they could attend the funeral of Margaret Olley.]

    B.C. I couldn’t understand why Crean and Turnbull didn’t just thumb their noses at the absolute crassness of Abbott doing that. What could he have done to Turnbull that he hasn’t already done.

    Dee – great story re Remus Rudd.

  9. Further to the kerfuffle over the appointment (as the head of the Future Fund) of Gonski over Costello, it would seem there is a precedent:

    Mr Stockdale was re-elected as Liberal Party president on Saturday by one vote, despite the party’s four vice-presidents releasing an open letter urging support for Mr Reith

    Reith whinge

  10. fess

    Pyne’s father was Remington Pyne.

    He was a prominent eye specialist. He worked for the Flying Doctor before that and had a special interest in aboriginal eye diseases.

  11. It’s Time
    [Eeer Dee, you know it’s a joke, don’t you?]

    Eeer no! I’m a dumbass! There, ya happy? 😛

    [ALZHEIMERS’ EYE TEST
    Count every ” F ” in the following text:

    FINISHE D FILES ARE THE RE
    SULT OF YEARS OF SCIENTI
    FIC STU D Y COMBINE D WITH
    THE EXPERIENCE OF YEARS…
    (SEE BELOW)

    HOW MANY ?]

  12. Dee@99:

    I loved this email!
    AUSTRALIAN WAY

    Onya Dee! What a great response!

    There’s hope for australia’s politicians yet.

  13. Diogenes
    [He worked for the Flying Doctor before that and had a special interest in aboriginal eye diseases.]
    Did he do any work with that sheepen shagger Fred Hollows ?

  14. B.C. @103:

    I’m not sure you can go much lower than not allowing Simon Crean and Malcolm Turnbull to pair so they could attend the funeral of Margaret Olley.

    You’d have to wonder why a private arrangement could not be struck. Neither shows up for the vote, mission accomplished.

    All you’d need is for both to be sure of each other’s bona fides. What would Mr Abbott do? Fire Mr Turnbull?

  15. [Scarpat
    Posted Monday, March 19, 2012 at 7:47 pm | Permalink
    And our MSM are just as appalling for not calling them on it. Disgraceful.

    Grattan and Coorey did.}
    Phil Coorey certainly did, but Grattan was still sitting on the fence leaning to the coalition side of course, about negativity of numbers.. There was another reporter I hadn’t heard of before that called Abbott out for his speech,seems to have disappeared now. Both opinions got a lot of comments (including moi) the majority agin the Coalition

  16. [ That really is disgraceful. You are either too sick for work or you are not.

    I NEVER put the diagnosis on a patient’s medical certificate. ]

    Diogenes no-one in the Association does/can’t as it is all part of the ‘privacy’ thing these days.

  17. Dio:

    Thanks. I have to say I’ve never had a doctor’s certificate which specifically names the condition I’ve had.

    I tweeted earlier today that this latest brain fart from the coalition seemed designed only to distract from the bare policy cupboard, and ginormous black hole in their costings.

    Well-timed outrage was my conclusion on the whole shenanigans, and given the backdown on a pair for Thomson, appears to have worked a treat.

  18. Diogenes
    Fred and Rem must have bumped into each other. See following Wiki selection. Interesting to see they were born within a month of each other and both died relativelely young.
    [He is responsible for organising the Royal Australian College of Ophthalmologists to establish the National Trachoma and Eye Health Program (the “Trachoma Program”) 1976-1978, with funding by the Federal Government.[5] Hollows himself spent three years visiting Aboriginal communities to provide eye care and carry out a survey of eye defects. ]

  19. The Remus Rudd email is a pinch from a US concoction featuring Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, among others.

  20. O’yeah, the Sharks led 17 – ZIP at half time but with the phone on standby for 000 in the last 10 minutes in case it was necessary, they held on to win 17 – 14 😀

    Ahh they were never going to get beat after the Tigers went poorly on Friday night 😉

    If Parra get the Spoon, it converts from a draw to a winning week 😎

  21. [Phil Coorey certainly did, but Grattan was still sitting on the fence…]

    The thought of La Stupenda sitting on a fence….

  22. Glad to see the site back up. William. It went a bit peculiar (that’s as techy as I can get!) when I logged in…I think I was caught up in a William Gibson novel, perhaps…
    Anyway, I don’t have anything else to add other than alienating any number of doctors over Mr. Thompson (sp?) seems just bizarre. I can see what the tactic is, spin up the knife edge life of the gov’t, and so on. But geez, for anyone paying attention, it’s getting mighty boring.
    Could this be a variant on P.J.K.s thingy about “Give me what I want or I’ll trash the place” i.e., “Give me what I want or I’ll bore you all into submission”.
    All of us on PB shrieking “No, just stop with your oppositional tactics, we can’t stand it any more”?

  23. Its such a shame to see Grattan become such a partisan hack. How can any journo not condemn the behaviour of the opposition breaking convention with regards to pairing and illness. What a disgrace

  24. jeffemu, they say you can’t win betting 😯

    Hey Wilkie should have put the case forward that you can bet on the footy instead of those brain dead machines 🙂

  25. Don,

    See Centre @137.

    I am a long suffering Cronulla Sharks supporter since day #1, 1967, and we have won bugger all.

    So any win is a great win.

    Especially against those cheatin’ mongrel Hartleys of Brookvale… (Manly)

    If I had two hours I would explain my hatred of The Hartleys, but any old league tragic would be able to fill you in on why.

  26. Harry “Snapper” Organs

    [I think I was caught up in a William Gibson novel, perhaps]
    As long as ye do not suffer any Chiba City Blues.

  27. [Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, March 19, 2012 at 9:03 pm | Permalink
    Phil Coorey certainly did, but Grattan was still sitting on the fence…

    The thought of La Stupenda sitting on a fence….]
    Yeah mindboggling isn’t it, but a very true description in this article. By the way BB I enjoyed your tweets yesterday, didn’t know you were on twitter so am following you

  28. The partisan hacks are here to stay.

    Did anyone hear Grattan with Fran this morning?
    The ALP are making up numbers, re: Coalition big black hole to discredit Rabbott’s claim of fiscal responsibility. But, both partys are doing it.

    Oh, the whole lot of them sh*t me to high heaven. 😥

  29. Meanwhiles.This report on the oik’s uni almer mater may explain a few things.

    [This week, the Herald has heard from a string of students about a culture scarcely changed in decades – about degrading rituals and alcohol-fuelled initiations. ”The misogyny and homophobia would alarm anyone living in the 1950s,” one student said. ”There was a general joke inside the college that the year was 1970. It’s really about 30 or 40 years behind what’s acceptable in the rest of society … girls are second class citizens. It’s still an all male college and they’re visitors…………..We live in a different world. You can’t walk around calling people poofters and referring to women as sluts.”’]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/tertiary-education/university-students-speak-about-degrading-rituals-after-30-suspended-for-drinking-initiation-20120316-1vahx.html#ixzz1pYaF7ukg

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