Galaxy: Queensland LNP leadership poll

Further results from the Galaxy poll conducted on Thursday and Friday nights have been published, this time showing who respondents would wish to the lead the LNP in the event that Campbell Newman fails to win Ashgrove. The figures have Lawrence Springborg on 31 per cent, John-Paul Langbroek on 19 per cent, Tim Nicholls on 14 per cent and Jeff Seeney on 9 per cent, with 28 per cent uncommitted. Springborg would have benefited from the name recognition that comes from having led three election campaigns, however unsuccessfully. He also had relatively little competition for the Nationals vote, with Seeney obviously holding little appeal, whereas those preferring a Liberal divided relatively evenly between the two candidates. In interesting contrast to federal polling, the results do not show huge differences between Labor and LNP supporters, except that Labor voters were substantially less likely than LNP voters to nominate Nicholls, and were predictably more likely to be uncommitted. The accompanying Courier-Mail report (the graphic at the top confusingly features personal ratings from the previous poll, since when Anna Bligh’s position has sharply deteriorated) also tells us that 22 per cent of respondents said uncertainty surrounding the Ashgrove result made them less likely to vote LNP, against 71 per cent who said it made no difference; while slightly more respondents said Labor’s attacks on Campbell Newman’s integrity made them more likely (19 per cent) than less likely (16 per cent) to vote LNP, with 64 per cent saying it made no difference.

We are also told that Labor polling shows senior ministers Andrew Fraser and Cameron Dick set to lose their seats of Mount Coot-tha and Greenslopes, which respectively have margins of 5.2 per cent and 6.9 per cent, while Bob Katter claims automated phone polling conducted for his party by ReachTEL has “the KAP’s primary vote in the mid 30 per cent region in Hinchinbrook and Beaudesert”. Katter has also made the obviously academic observation that his party would “unequivocally oppose the creation of an ALP government” if it emerged with the balance of power. Labor meanwhile has switched its rhetoric away from any suggestion it might actually win to pleading that voters leave them with enough seats to form a credible opposition, which has rarely done much good for similarly placed parties in the past.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6 comments on “Galaxy: Queensland LNP leadership poll”

  1. William three people from the office went along and said Bligh was strong but Newman held his own and didn’t blunder which is all he had to do. While we have been off the air things up here have swung a lot and it looks like Newman will now likely win Ashgrove. Failing something special happening in the last five days.

    I don’t think there are many people who think Labor should have kept those attack ads running after the CMC release on Friday. We will see.

  2. The ALP has run up the white flag and is now trying to save the furniture. It’s latest ad is asking voters not to give Can do? too many seats and too much power. Didn’t NSW ALP try this tactic at the end of the last election campaign?

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