The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows no change on last week, bar a one point drop in the Greens vote to 10 per cent: the Coalition is on 49 per cent of the primary vote and Labor on 32 per cent, with the Coalition’s two-party lead at 56-44. Essential also found plenty of interesting questions to ask about the Labor leadership. Respondents were asked to evaluate the performance of various actors during the challenge, with Kevin Rudd coming out least badly (33 per cent good, 35 per cent poor), “Labor Party ministers” the worst (10 per cent and 52 per cent), the media also very poorly (14 per cent and 43 per cent), Julia Gillard not well at all (23 per cent and 49 per cent) and Tony Abbott hardly better even if it might be hard to recall what he did exactly (25 per cent and 40 per cent).
Sixty-two per cent of respondents said the leadership challenge was bad for the government and 47 per cent that it has made them less likely to vote Labor (64 per cent among Coalition supporters, obviously including many who wouldn’t vote Labor in a pink fit), against 13 per cent who said it was a good thing and another 13 per cent (or perhaps the same 13 per cent) who they were more likely to vote Labor. A question on Kevin Rudd’s future produces a miraculously even three-way split with 29 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and again challenge for the leadership, 28 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and not challenge for the leadership and 30 per cent saying he should resign from parliament.
Respondents were asked to indicate whether they supported the Australian system of leaders being elected by MPs (36 per cent), American-style presidential primaries (31 per cent) and British-style election by both MPs and party members (11 per cent). Fifty-six per cent believed MPs should be guided by public opinion in leadership contests against 30 per cent by who they believed was the best person. The poll also points to a slight increase in support for an early election since the end of January, up three to 44 per cent with support for a completed term down two to 46 per cent.
We have also had Newspoll publish results from last week’s polling on the most important political issues and the best party to handle them. Such figures are invariably very closely associated with voting intention, and since this was a 53-47 poll result, it finds Labor improving considerably since the question was last asked as part of the poll of October 7-9, which was a 57-43 result. Labor has recovered big leads on its traditional strong suits of health, education, industrial relations and climate change, and closed the gap on the economy, interest rates and national security. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.
[“Secret” Kirkham report was leaked to TEN ]
By whom. 😉
l
One of the left field issues here is that a certain ex-Australian Democrat Senator is on the Board of the Australian Defence Association.
It is unclear what Mr James is exactly the spokesperson for. Is it the Board? Is it the membership? How does the ADA governance work?
http://www.ada.asn.au/index.htm
Tories, at their brilliant best.
Vikram Dodd
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 7 March 2012 20.23 GMT
Article history
Robert Quick told the Leveson inquiry he had been smeared by Tory-supporting newspapers. Photograph: Chris Young/PA Archive/PA Photos
Robert Quick, formerly Britain’s top counter-terrorism officer, has alleged that his senior Scotland Yard colleagues buckled under Conservative party pressure and withdrew their support for the investigation of a Tory frontbench spokesman who had received leaks which endangered national security.
Quick told the Leveson inquiry on Wednesday that the arrest in 2008 of the Conservative immigration spokesman, Damian Green, sparked outrage from senior Tories and Conservative-leaning papers. Quick said the furore led the then acting Metropolitan police commissioner, Sir Paul Stephenson, to ask him to halt the criminal investigation.
Quick alleged that Green had not just received the leaks but encouraged a civil servant to pass on information that might have endangered national security.
He said his investigation began after a complaint from the government that material had been stolen from the safe of the then home secretary’s private office. Green, who is now an immigration minister, was arrested in November 2008 by Scotland Yard.
The arrest and search of Green’s House of Commons office was condemned by David Cameron, then leader of the opposition, and London mayor Boris Johnson, who is now in control of setting the Met budget and strategic priorities, as well as having the power to fire the commissioner.
Christopher Galley, a civil servant, was also arrested. The Crown Prosecution Service decided in April 2009 not to prosecute Green or Galley.
Quick said that Galley phoned Green after being released and was told he should “plead not guilty and ‘do not mention David Davis'”, the senior Tory whom Galley had first contacted offering to leak information to embarrass the Labour government.
Quick said he had thoroughly checked the law at every stage and had the support of Stephenson before the arrest. But after the Tory explosion of anger, the acting commissioner withdrew his support, Quick claimed.
The row erupted weeks after London’s Tory mayor had in effect fired Sir Ian Blair as Met commissioner.
Quick told the inquiry that Stephenson “looked anxious” and claimed he had written his resignation letter after Tory criticism of Green’s arrest. The Met claims that Stephenson, who went on to be appointed commissioner, had in fact written a statement saying he would leave the force in April when his contract expired.
Quick agreed with Leveson’s suggestion that dropping the inquiry would give the appearance at least of caving in to political pressure.
The officer said Stephenson asked him to stop the inquiry: “I expressed the view that I did not think it justifiable or ethical to stop the investigation purely on the basis of a controversy that appeared not to be driven by the public, but by those who may have a vested interest in deterring the police from undertaking such investigation.”
Quick claimed Tory-supporting papers smeared him, he suspects with help from a senior police insider. He said he had been forced to move his children out of his home amid security fears after the Mail on Sunday published details about a wedding car business run by his wife, Judith, and staffed by former police officers.
Stephenson and Dick Fedorcio, head of press at Scotland Yard, had failed to try to intervene to stop the paper publishing the story, Quick claimed.
Quick apologised in December 2008 after claiming the Tories and their supporters were “mobilised … in a wholly corrupt way” against his investigation into Green’s relationship with the Home Office civil servant.
Counsel to the inquiry Robert Jay QC said: “It all suggests a campaign from whoever to smear you in relation to the Green inquiry, to use a range of strategies.”
Quick said that during the Green saga he came to believe some press leaks were so well informed that someone senior at Scotland Yard must have been briefing the media to undermine the investigation.
A report from Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary said the use of police resources in the Green investigation was “debatable”, while an internal police review said Green’s arrest was “not proportionate”.
Quick, then head of counter-terrorism and an assistant commissioner, resigned from the Met in April 2009 over a separate mistake, when he was photographed entering No 10 with a briefing note on counter-terrorism on display.
At the Leveson inquiry, he claimed that the former assistant commissioner John Yates had resisted an attempt to examine his phone records over allegations he was leaking information from the cash for honours investigation, saying he was “very well connected”.
Quick, then chief constable of Surrey, said he was called in to review the criminal investigation led by Yates. He gave it a clean bill of health but, in January 2007, Quick was called in again after Britain’s top civil servant, Gus O’Donnell, complained that the police were leaking details to the media. O’Donnell specifically named Yates as the source of the leaks from the investigation into the then Labour government.
Quick alleged that Stephenson, the then Met deputy commissioner, did not implement his recommendation that the phone records of Yates should be examined for evidence of whether he was leaking against the Labour government.
Quick alleged that he clashed with Yates over this suggestion and that Yates told him: “No Bob, I am very well connected.” Quick told Leveson his review found no evidence implicating Yates as the leaker: “I sensed Assistant Commissioner Yates was clearly sensitive – as I think I would be – to an intrusive process like that.”
Last week, Yates in his evidence denied leaking information about the cash for peerages investigation, saying some of the most sensitive information gathered by police is still not known to the public.
Quick said Yates’s media contacts troubled him, especially after he saw him having a drink with a Daily Mail crime journalist, Stephen Wright, whose paper was, he said, trying to “demolish” the then commissioner Sir Ian Blair. Quick said this contact was “extraordinary”.
In 2000, Quick, then part of Scotland Yard’s anti-corruption command, wanted to investigate newspapers after a covert operation revealed corrupt payments to police officers for information.
Quick added that it struck him at the time as possible that newspaper organisations were aware of the reasons for the payments and were themselves complicit in making corrupt payments to police officers.
His report was submitted to his then boss, Andy Hayman, but no action was taken, the inquiry heard.
Quick also said it was clear in 2000 that tabloid journalists, most likely with their bosses’ blessing, were bribing officers: “There were considerable grounds to believe that journalists from tabloid newspapers were corruptors.”
Leonie,
He’s consistent, then 🙁
Neil James Bio
http://www.ada.asn.au/JamesBio.htm
I am sure the Lib/MSM story will soon be a demand for the leaker to tracked down.
Crikey is back on its US servers for the moment, so the situation should be as it’s always been. Take two of migrating to the new servers (which “have more than quadruple the capacity of the current servers”) will be conducted this weekend. When this happens, the site will go into “read only” mode (i.e. no commenting) for a period likely to be around 24 hours.
La Stupenda doesn’t get it:
[If events had taken their expected course last week, Smith and Hurley would not have been standing uncomfortably side by side yesterday. But for Julia Gillard overriding Smith’s opposition to Bob Carr, Smith would have been foreign minister, and a new defence minister could have flicked off Smith’s April attacks on Kafer. The military would have been glad to see the back of Smith and he of them. Now they are stuck with each other, all elbows and bristles, probably until the election.]
Last week Smith was lording it over Gillard. Now Gillard is lording it over Smith. The fact that Smith and the ADF are “stuck with each other” is most likely EXACTLY what Gillard wanted to happen, so that the ongoing issues could be seen through to a conclusion, not “flicked off” by some new minister.
“Flicking off” is politics. Smith is going to work… to do a job he is well suited to doing. The ADF has too many scalps. It’s time to stop the rot.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/only-defiance-from-smith-but-in-the-end-he-has-no-choice-20120307-1uknc.html#ixzz1oVPrbP2B
DF , go and whinge to Abbott , he set it up.
strategic and necessary leak to Ten
Beyond that any other disruptions expected William?
This being a Newspoll weekend I hope things are back to normal by Sunday evening
shellbell
If you are still around, I did very much like:
‘I strive for imperfection.’
Classy.
In a nutshell what was the leak to Ten?
Mr Bowe
It did seem to me this afternoon that the luddite hamsters were on work-to-rule. Best wishes with the second go at the migration.
You can just see it as a rape defence, can’t you:
DEFENCE: I submit, my lord, that my client is incredibly fit. He regularly runs 10 kilometres a day, has taken part in ultra marathons, and is on a specialised macrobiotic diet aligned to his unique physiological needs.
He works in a high pressure environment which demands immense concentration…
JUDGE: So, in your learned opinion, he would be – er – a little more frisky than the average?
DEFENCE: Frisky is perhaps the wrong word, m’lud, with all due respect.
JUDGE: In more of a need for an outlet for his perfectly natural desires than the average male?
DEFENCE: Exactly so.
JUDGE: And – in your learned opinion – what would you say about the alleged victim in this case?
DEFENCE: A troubled lass, my lord. You know the type.
JUDGE: Indeed. Well, I find there is no case to answer. The lad was merely serving his country, in the best way he knew how. Case dismissed.
TH
No-one knows at this stage.
Thanks Boerwar
So what has been inferred? Is there a suggestion details that more will follow?
Abbott and Neil James are the ones should apologize to Smithy as “Secret” Kirkham rep was critical of Kafer’s handling of Skype scandal.
2659
The only (!) flaw in La Stupenda’s reasoning is, of course, that Gillard didn’t have to give Stephen Smith the Foreign Ministry if she wanted him out of Defence. There were about thirty positions potentially available.
But the msm seems to have become fixated on FA, as if that’s the only Ministry that matters.
‘more details will follow?’
TH
Pure goss, as far as I know, but the gist is that what was said in the official Report was different from what the Report writer actually really, truly, thinks in private.
this post-challenge period has been a massive circuit breaker for the Govt – finally have some sort of control of the agenda – it’s like a new knee replacement that’s allowing for free flowing movement without restriction
[Crikey is back on its US servers for the moment, so the situation should be as it’s always been. Take two of migrating to the new servers (which “have more than quadruple the capacity of the current servers”) will be conducted this weekend. When this happens, the site will go into “read only” mode (i.e. no commenting) for a period likely to be around 24 hours.]
Bilbo, as Doris Day would sing “que sera sera…….”
[Abbott and Neil James are the ones should apologize to Smithy as “Secret” Kirkham rep was critical of Kafer’s handling of Skype scandal.]
Actually, we don’t know that. Naughty Paul Bongiorno for teasing.
[One of the left field issues here is that a certain ex-Australian Democrat Senator is on the Board of the Australian Defence Association.]
Natasha Stott Despoja has wisely left that position, I gather.
If you ever need evidence of bias in News Ltd look no further than the front page headline of the paper today: Hospitals face $170m hit from sick carbon tax. The article completely overhypes the projected cost increase which will impact over a 10yr period and fails to mention the offseting compensation until the end of the article. The editorial then repeats this bluff and bluster. The paper has decided to undertake such stories on a daily basis now up until the introduction of the tax. what more could you expect from the little paper.
Finns
Do you know that for 100% sure, or are you dolpinising as per F,B,F&Co, with the truth being as required?
Ch 10 uses twitter to try to boost ratings. This is all we know so far.
[Actually, we don’t know that. Naughty Paul Bongiorno for teasing.]
BB, BW, Ch Ten told me so it must be true then.
[Actually, we don’t know that. Naughty Paul Bongiorno for teasing.]
A possible reason for the delay might be that the private opinion is even more supportive of Kafer than the official report, and that Smith is “desperately” (whenever I am at a loss for words, I am invariably inspired by Dennis Shanahan’s vocabulary) trying to stop the leak from being aired.
[Do you know that for 100% sure, or are you dolpinising as per F,B,F&Co, with the truth being as required?]
BW, what are we going to do with the $3.5B The Diet has given us to clean up the Fukushima shits.
I have already booked for Ipanema.
[Ch 10 uses twitter to try to boost ratings. This is all we know so far.]
Well, it’s not working at PB.
Never in the field of human blogging was so much watched by so few, for so many hangers-on who refuse to watch commercial TV.
Good signs from the gummint, getting on the front foot.
Swannie vs the billionaires…get the Libs to show where they stand and now the bogans at defence. There goes the female friendly Abbott at the first inference of mallee bulls or sluts.
Could show the cricket team a thing….
TH
If Mr Kirkham is privately far more critical than he has been of Mr Kafer in public then:
(1) the ground is chopped from under the feet of Mr Smith’s opponents, including Mr James and Mr Abbott who would both have to apologise and resign, if they are consistent with their thresholds and judgements.
(2) Mr Kirkham’s credibility will be at question [partly undermining point (1)]
One possibility is that Mr Smith is saying that the young woman has not been giving evidence wtte because of her fragility. There may be another reason, and she may go public with this reason. She may well undermine the Kirkham Report’s findings substantially.
Short answer: ‘Who knows?’
[ Crikey is back on its US servers for the moment, so the situation should be as it’s always been. Take two of migrating to the new servers (which “have more than quadruple the capacity of the current servers”) will be conducted this weekend. When this happens, the site will go into “read only” mode (i.e. no commenting) for a period likely to be around 24 hours.]
For an online-only venture, poor old Crikey has had more than its share of online problems.
Thanks Boerwar
[ Last week Smith was lording it over Gillard. Now Gillard is lording it over Smith. The fact that Smith and the ADF are “stuck with each other” is most likely EXACTLY what Gillard wanted to happen, so that the ongoing issues could be seen through to a conclusion, not “flicked off” by some new minister. ]
also BB, Smith has been touted regularly prior to the recent leadership challenge as a potential white knight Labor leader and not to mention he is currently betting market 2nd fav to lead Labor into the next election. In the last day Mr Smithsheen has lost a little sheen and for the party probably positive.
Rudd is finished forever and Shorten will be the next Labor leader in about 4 years. So with Smith on a backfoot no instability for Labor leading into late 2013 election and another win.
the spectator,
The other issue is that the numbers splashed across the paper are derived from an unknown organisation publishing “its estimates”. Because the official Treasury estimates are far more modest about the impact on prices it is ridiculed and disregarded.
The Hun also conflates all energy price increases as being caused by the Carbon Price when of course, these prices are rising independently and the carbon Price is but a small component.
The other “of course” is the lying omission of the compensation being provided through tax cuts and Family Tax increases.
It’s a worry that over 90% of people responding to the vox pop survey believe that they will be worse off when the opposite is the truth.
Thanks bw. I am under the influence of anesthetic drugs having been sedated for dentistry this arvo.
I will probably be more lucid than usual if I don’t nod off onto my keyboard.
Boerwar , that link at yahoo come up with a Pizza ad ” Signature ” Pizza range ! That’s what Abbott was on about He has a Pizza Policy ?
[It’s a worry that over 90% of people responding to the vox pop survey believe that they will be worse off when the opposite is the truth.]
I was following you until you got to the Vox Pop issue. They are regularly hacked. On many occasions I’ve noticed that 5,000 votes, most of the anti-government can appear in a space of just a few minutes.
The most egregious case of this, for me, was Alan Jones’ vox pop poll the morning after the carbon tax was announced. It went from 15,000:200 (against:for) to 23,000:220 in six minutes flat.
BB,
I take your point about vox pop polls generally.
However, when they are skewed and so dramatically wrong (factually) then either gaming the result is occurring or the misinformation is biting.
Smith has to go because he is upsetting the defence force chiefs by not playing their game. All he’s supposed to do is hand over large blank cheques for new toys for the boys and, without question, sign off on their fruit-loop plans to buy yet more rusted-out second-hand Vietnam war era rubish from the yanks. Instead he’s making dodgy commandants stand down, going ahead with criminal charges against cadets who were said to be just fit young blokes having a bit of fun and sticking up for a young lady who has been monstered by said chiefs. We can’t have a minister demanding that defence personnel be made accountable for their actions or cancelling rubbish contracts for stuff we don’t need. He just has to go.
[The other issue is that the numbers splashed across the paper are derived from an unknown organisation publishing “its estimates”. Because the official Treasury estimates are far more modest about the impact on prices it is ridiculed and disregarded.
The Hun also conflates all energy price increases as being caused by the Carbon Price when of course, these prices are rising independently and the carbon Price is but a small component.
The other “of course” is the lying omission of the compensation being provided through tax cuts and Family Tax increases.
It’s a worry that over 90% of people responding to the vox pop survey believe that they will be worse off when the opposite is the truth.]
the continual trashing of institutions like Treasury by organisations like Newscorp and Abbott is a big issue. One thing that keeps being talked about is politics has never been this bad, i cannot remember a time when the debate has been so poor. Two reasons: Abbott and Newscorp. These organisations are responsible for trashing the debate in this country.
William @ 2658
Are the amateurs having another go or have they brought the professionals in this time?
They had it on Australian servers for a short time last weekend before reverting to the US servers.
adam,
A hyperlink would have been more appropriate.
The Spectator. No things were much worse in 1975 – once again thanks to News Ltd
Resignation on YouTube –
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/mar/08/syria-deputy-oil-minister-defects-assad-regime
[They had it on Australian servers for a short time last weekend before reverting to the US servers.]
Everyone knows Aussies gerbils don’t work weekends 😛