Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows no change on last week, bar a one point drop in the Greens vote to 10 per cent: the Coalition is on 49 per cent of the primary vote and Labor on 32 per cent, with the Coalition’s two-party lead at 56-44. Essential also found plenty of interesting questions to ask about the Labor leadership. Respondents were asked to evaluate the performance of various actors during the challenge, with Kevin Rudd coming out least badly (33 per cent good, 35 per cent poor), “Labor Party ministers” the worst (10 per cent and 52 per cent), the media also very poorly (14 per cent and 43 per cent), Julia Gillard not well at all (23 per cent and 49 per cent) and Tony Abbott hardly better even if it might be hard to recall what he did exactly (25 per cent and 40 per cent).

Sixty-two per cent of respondents said the leadership challenge was bad for the government and 47 per cent that it has made them less likely to vote Labor (64 per cent among Coalition supporters, obviously including many who wouldn’t vote Labor in a pink fit), against 13 per cent who said it was a good thing and another 13 per cent (or perhaps the same 13 per cent) who they were more likely to vote Labor. A question on Kevin Rudd’s future produces a miraculously even three-way split with 29 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and again challenge for the leadership, 28 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and not challenge for the leadership and 30 per cent saying he should resign from parliament.

Respondents were asked to indicate whether they supported the Australian system of leaders being elected by MPs (36 per cent), American-style presidential primaries (31 per cent) and British-style election by both MPs and party members (11 per cent). Fifty-six per cent believed MPs should be guided by public opinion in leadership contests against 30 per cent by who they believed was the best person. The poll also points to a slight increase in support for an early election since the end of January, up three to 44 per cent with support for a completed term down two to 46 per cent.

We have also had Newspoll publish results from last week’s polling on the most important political issues and the best party to handle them. Such figures are invariably very closely associated with voting intention, and since this was a 53-47 poll result, it finds Labor improving considerably since the question was last asked as part of the poll of October 7-9, which was a 57-43 result. Labor has recovered big leads on its traditional strong suits of health, education, industrial relations and climate change, and closed the gap on the economy, interest rates and national security. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,780 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. Robert Quick, formerly Britain’s top counter-terrorism officer, has alleged that his senior Scotland Yard colleagues buckled under Conservative party pressure and withdrew their support for the investigation of a Tory frontbench spokesman who had received leaks which endangered national security.

    Quick told the Leveson inquiry on Wednesday that the arrest in 2008 of the Conservative immigration spokesman, Damian Green, sparked outrage from senior Tories and Conservative-leaning papers. Quick said the furore led the then acting Metropolitan police commissioner, Sir Paul Stephenson, to ask him to halt the criminal investigation.

  2. The born-to-rulers’ heads are exploding because Labor, together with the evil Greens and some conservatively-inclined turncoat Independents, are keeping them from their ‘rightful’ place in the seats of power. Hence the biggest tantrum in history from the Yobbosition and their phalanx of media allies. Poor little petals, democracy is so messy when the one true worthy party is deprived of its ‘birthright’.

  3. Did I just see / hear Tone saying: “As a father of three daughters I was thrilled to have our first female prime minister.”?

  4. [#Morgan F2F Voting Intention: ALP 39 (+1.5), L/NP 43.5 (+1), Greens 10 (-1), Others/Independents 7.5 (-1.5)]

    I know it is Morgan but I’ll revel in it anyway!

  5. [However, when they are skewed and so dramatically wrong (factually) then either gaming the result is occurring or the misinformation is biting.]

    I believe this to be true. No one in general conversation has questioned anything they have read in the paper.When challenged on things that (for example) Poll Bludgers generally know to be untrue, you are met with incomprehension when you even attempt to set them straight.
    The one that has really stuck is Pink Batts, even though there is proven evidence that Peter Garret did not kill 4 people generally it is accepted as fact.
    Of course I am only talking about my circle of people, it’s not large, granted, but it is a straw poll in the scheme of things.They add up.
    I am a labor member and supporter, but I’m getting a bit antsy, maybe Australia isn’t ready yet. Which gives me pain thinking we have come to this level of shallow.
    Women belong in the kitchen barefoot and that is where the punters are.
    I hope I am wrong.

  6. On twitter they’re saying that Kafer failed to predict that disciplinary action would upset the young cadet and should have. Also, her room had been sprayed with Jif (not shaving cream as reported)

    Sounds as if Smith was protective of Kafer in his statement to the press yesterday by not disclosing any of this. So all the calls for an apology by Smith are very much opposite what is needed.

  7. jenauthor
    [#Morgan F2F Voting Intention: ALP 39 (+1.5), L/NP 43.5 (+1), Greens 10 (-1), Others/Independents 7.5 (-1.5)

    I know it is Morgan but I’ll revel in it anyway! ]
    Sounds good jen.Ill just ignore the name and sit back to enoy the warming glow of the numbers 🙂

  8. Two things

    Nice to see Adam Brandt out and about in Swan Street Richmond today doing a spot of met and greet.

    The official data has confirmed what I have been saying about the Victorian economy, now maybe someone might actually do something, starting off with ending the silly pointless political obsession with a surplus.

    Clearly the private sector cannot function without the government coming out and giving stimulation.

  9. Abbott said that? What comedian has he engaged as his new script writer?

    He wasn’t thrilled when Julia Gillard became PM, he was mightily pissed off because he didn’t get the gig. The last 18 months or so have been full of ‘what about me’ ‘we were robbed’ ‘I demand an election now’ crap laced with a whopping great dose of ‘how can you trust a woman’.

    If he really said that then Labor has a great new election ad right there- even the leader of the opposition thinks Julia Gillard is the best person to be PM.

  10. great offering by patriciaWA on this international women’s day

    On International Women’s Day
    Finally we’ve had someone say
    Our Prime Minister is Okay!
    She’s been assessed as Triple A!

    They’ve always known that Overseas,
    Admired how she could shoot the breeze
    With little folk and the big cheese.
    At last in Oz she’s the bees’ knees!

    Our experts,  who ought to know,
    Have told us that she’s all the go
    With public servants.  They’re aglow,
    Enjoying their new status quo.

    Members of the Coalition,
    Sharing Abbott’s premonition
    That she’s done for his ambition
    Are jostling for his position.

    There’s high praise too from Independents,
    Not just her ALP attendants.
    History will record for our descendants
    How began the great Gillard ascendance!

  11. Ruawake:

    [@conceravota NSW: 45.5/54.5, VIC: 50/50, QLD: 49/51, WA: 49/51, SA: 52.5/47.5, TAS 48.5/51.5]

    ALP/NLP for each state

  12. Tones tory mate Cameron in pomgolia showing what caring conservatives are really all about. Bastard. But hey this guy defended multi million pound bonus’s to people working in banks the taxpayer bailed out 🙁
    [Nearly 2,000 disabled workers are to be made redundant after the Government announced it is withdrawing its multi-million-pound subsidy from the state-owned disability employer Remploy.

    In a move described by unions as “barbaric”, ministers confirmed that up to 36 of Remploy’s 54 factories across the UK would shut by the end of the year.]

  13. This is funny, and also spot on

    [6 Things Rich People Need to Stop Saying
    By: David Wong
    March 05, 2012

    All of a sudden, it’s like you can’t make huge amounts of money without people getting all pissed off about it. And it’s only going to get worse — with the election coming up and the weather getting warmer, this whole “Occupy” movement is probably going to come back strong. The 1 percent will feel even more besieged than before.

    “What the hell?” you’re probably thinking, if you’re somehow both rich and reading an article with this title, “I didn’t crash the economy!” You might even be tempted to take to a microphone, to defend yourself and your wealthy friends. But before you do, I want you to stop and ask yourself, “Will this make me sound like an out-of-touch douchebag?”]

  14. poroti – That is typical short sighted rubbish policy and so they are going to retrench them then spend money on assisting them to find a new job in a recession like economy.

    If anyone wants to see how an economy will behave after cutting massive spending then they only need to look at the U.K I find it bemusing that anyone seriously thinks the best way to cut debt is to slash.

    It has never worked and it will never work

  15. One thing we ‘might’ be able to say is that the leadership ructions have not done the kind of damage all the pundits were saying.

    And maybe the strength the PM has shown, her snookering of the press etc. has made appear more PMinisterial to some?

    The test will be the other polls – but also whether the ability for the govt to get some of its messaging out changes things in next few months.

    THe snookering of the press (now twice in a week) ‘might’ make them more reserved about just running with the anti-govt campaign. They have done more ‘policy’ analysis this week than they have in the entire year.

    here’s hoping anyhoo

  16. Did Channel 10 have anything of *substance* to say on ADFA Enquiry etc?

    Or were they just using *substance* of one sort or another?

  17. [poroti – That is typical short sighted rubbish policy and so they are going to retrench them then spend money on assisting them to find a new job in a recession like economy.

    If anyone wants to see how an economy will behave after cutting massive spending then they only need to look at the U.K I find it bemusing that anyone seriously thinks the best way to cut debt is to slash.

    It has never worked and it will never work]

    this is exactly the draconian measures being thrust on the greeks. cutting cutting till there is nothing left to repay any debt owing. all thanks to the german approach. utterly foolish. paul krugman has been writing about this since 2009 and thank god for girlock in the US govt system that they have not followed this path otherwise we would be really up shit creek.

  18. poroti,

    Every time you see Hockey and Robb smiling and getting a hard on when they talk about the Budget cuts they are going to make, just think of the poor, disabled and helpless that are going to cop it.

  19. Ruawake , yes i have spotted that with the KFC kid. Its like he knows he can get away with it , the lying ,smiling bastard.

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