Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows no change on last week, bar a one point drop in the Greens vote to 10 per cent: the Coalition is on 49 per cent of the primary vote and Labor on 32 per cent, with the Coalition’s two-party lead at 56-44. Essential also found plenty of interesting questions to ask about the Labor leadership. Respondents were asked to evaluate the performance of various actors during the challenge, with Kevin Rudd coming out least badly (33 per cent good, 35 per cent poor), “Labor Party ministers” the worst (10 per cent and 52 per cent), the media also very poorly (14 per cent and 43 per cent), Julia Gillard not well at all (23 per cent and 49 per cent) and Tony Abbott hardly better even if it might be hard to recall what he did exactly (25 per cent and 40 per cent).

Sixty-two per cent of respondents said the leadership challenge was bad for the government and 47 per cent that it has made them less likely to vote Labor (64 per cent among Coalition supporters, obviously including many who wouldn’t vote Labor in a pink fit), against 13 per cent who said it was a good thing and another 13 per cent (or perhaps the same 13 per cent) who they were more likely to vote Labor. A question on Kevin Rudd’s future produces a miraculously even three-way split with 29 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and again challenge for the leadership, 28 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and not challenge for the leadership and 30 per cent saying he should resign from parliament.

Respondents were asked to indicate whether they supported the Australian system of leaders being elected by MPs (36 per cent), American-style presidential primaries (31 per cent) and British-style election by both MPs and party members (11 per cent). Fifty-six per cent believed MPs should be guided by public opinion in leadership contests against 30 per cent by who they believed was the best person. The poll also points to a slight increase in support for an early election since the end of January, up three to 44 per cent with support for a completed term down two to 46 per cent.

We have also had Newspoll publish results from last week’s polling on the most important political issues and the best party to handle them. Such figures are invariably very closely associated with voting intention, and since this was a 53-47 poll result, it finds Labor improving considerably since the question was last asked as part of the poll of October 7-9, which was a 57-43 result. Labor has recovered big leads on its traditional strong suits of health, education, industrial relations and climate change, and closed the gap on the economy, interest rates and national security. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,780 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

Comments Page 53 of 56
1 … 52 53 54 … 56

  2. GG

    [I thought various people had until about now to respond to the FWA findings.]

    I think they have until the end of the week to respond. And then FWA will go through the responses. I could take quite a while yet.

  4. Poroti@2580

    If only it were Operation Barossa we would all be able to drink to that!

    One of the most obscene pictures from the West last year was Twiggy and Mesma joined at the hip enjoying one another’s company at the Anti-Mining Tax Rally on the Foreshore.

    One picture is worth a 1000 words so they say and the Deputy Leader of the conservatives in the hug of one of Perth’s richest people says it all about where the interests of the tories lie.

    The other real obscenity was Twiggy and Gina – with personal wealth in the region of 15 billion – complaining about paying too much tax at the same time.

    The conservatives put this down to class envy but it is disgust not envy. They miss the point on that.

  5. Greensborough Growler

    [I think the Tories’ heads are about to explode because there is nothing much to go on and Thomson is probably preparing his hit list for defamation suits.]
    I think their heads are about to explode because everything they thought would hand them the keys to the Lodge has failed to do so.Ruddstoration was their last hope .They are bereft, left with no idea what to do and not a policy in sight.

  6. T.

    I like it. Alternative history. Operation Barossa. Instead of the germans and the russians blowing each other to bits by the millions, everyone got pissed together in one huge gigantic party.

    And they all lived happily ever after once the berocca had set in.

    It is like that Joseph Heller story which reverses the process of a bombing raid.

  9. Tom

    [ I could take quite a while yet.

    So you are the one dragging their feet]

    I’ve dragged it out three years so far. The sky is the limit! 😉

  12. hughriminton ‏ @hughriminton
    What SKYPE scandal inquiry boss Andrew Kirkham really thinks about Commodore Kafer’s actions. His secret report tonight exclusively on TEN

  13. Julia Gillard ‏ @JuliaGillard
    This afternoon the PM will be answering #schoolsfunding questions at a forum in Sydney. Watch it live here-theatre.deewr.gov.au/schoolcommunit… TeamJG]

  16. [What SKYPE scandal inquiry boss Andrew Kirkham really thinks about Commodore Kafer’s actions. His secret report tonight exclusively on TEN]

    I’ll hazard a guess that Kirkham thinks Kafer was a douchebag but he couldn’t actually ping him for anything.

  17. [What SKYPE scandal inquiry boss Andrew Kirkham really thinks about Commodore Kafer’s actions. His secret report tonight exclusively on TEN]

    Oh noes, surely Dennis cannot be wrong again? His bottom will explode. 😉

  18. I saw the Stepen Smith interview this morning, he handled it well. Smith did absolutely the right thing and has no need to apologise to anyone

    Commandant Bruce Kafer should have done the honourable thing and announced he was standing down for the duration of the investigation. What happened to acting like an officer and a gentleman? Sorry, I forgot, the Australian Defence Forces don’t believe in that sort of thing, they prefer yobbish behaviour and sexual assaults dismissed with a wink and the ‘boys will be boys’ excuse.

    By the way, someone needs to tell our TV news lot that Duntroon and ADFA are two very different establishments. They have been showing footage of Duntroon graduations while talking about ADFA. I suppose we aren’t supposed to notice.

  19. l

    Well, that would be interesting if it is different from what he put in the Report, which was a real judgement of Solomon effort. What Mr Kafer did was reasonable. What Mr Smith wanted him to do was reasonable as well.

    You would have to assume that what he really thinks is what he put in the Report. If not, the kaka could well go kaboom.

  20. Boerwar @ 2606
    It is like that Joseph Heller story which reverses the process of a bombing raid.

    I think you mean Slaughter House 5 by Kurt Vonnegut; a brilliant concept and very well written.

  21. Diog
    Great – I have booked an extra setting in the hope that you could make it. I will ask William to forward my email address to you.

  24. BB (@2393), Tricot, BK et al.,

    Yes, the more you complain, the harder they go. Stephen Smith is not happy. He’s on a mission. Perfect person for the job.

  26. [Yes, the more you complain, the harder they go. Stephen Smith is not happy. He’s on a mission. Perfect person for the job.]

    Which is why Julia reappointed him. No-one in our brilliant media seems to have thought of that possibility.

  31. Tony Abbott should have chosen his female back-up group with more care. Although Ms Dwyer and Ms Cash are both married neither have children. It seems they have both deliberately chosen to be barren. This lack of offspring, according to earleir Liberal Party pronouncements, makes a woman cold, hard, unfeeling and totally unfit to comment on any issue involving children and/or families. Maybe Tony’s daughters were off doing something else today and couldn’t help dad out.

  33. The Mr Kafer story is a big distraction from the real story – 700+ complaints that have legs. On top of numerous cases where players refuse to complain because they know what they are going to get.

    Senior heads should roll because of this level of decades – long systemic cover ups of abuse.

    So what do the rightards do? Attack Mr Smith. What does Mr Abbott do? Sweep it under the carpet. He hasn’t read the Report. He is willing to demand Mr Smith’s resignation, but he has not read the Report. Who needs facts? Not Mr Abbott.

    Come on guys and gals of the MSM. This noisy bloke is a sitting duck.

  44. [Think Big ‏ @Thought4rce
    @Roaldan1000 “Secret” Kirkham report was leaked to TEN which is critical of Kafer’s handling of Skype scandal.]

    Oh dear. Some heads will be exploding at the OO!

  45. @Roaldan1000 “Secret” Kirkham report was leaked to TEN which is critical of Kafer’s handling of Skype scandal.

  46. Neil James is a crusty old #%@* who would prefer that women stay at home, have lots of babies, and smell nice for their hubby when he gets home (after cooking dinner, of course).

  47. Strange things are happening here. My draft posts keep going ‘poof’ while I am typing and then they go into the gerbil ether.

  48. Strange things are happening here. My draft posts keep going ‘poof’ while I am typing and then they go ‘poof’ into the gerbil ether.

  49. Super

    Neil James also excused the males involved in the Skype scandal by saying that the girl involved was ‘troubled’ and that cadets needed to have sex as an outlet because they are incredibly fit.

  50. Strange things are happening here. My draft posts keep going ‘poof’ while I am typing and then they go ‘poof’ into the hamster ether.

    HAMSTER ALERT!!!!!!!!!!!!

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 53 of 56
1 … 52 53 54 … 56