The government is down a Foreign Minister this evening (the Canberra Times reports on the likely shape of the looming reshuffle, in case you were wondering), and by all accounts the Prime Minister will seek to clear the air tomorrow by calling a leadership spill for Monday. This makes the timing of the next Newspoll very interesting indeed: usually it reports on Monday evening, but it occasionally emerges a day earlier. The Prime Minister would presumably prefer that the matter be resolved before it comes out rather than after.
Beyond that, I do not venture to guess what will occur, beyond observing the consensus view that Kevin Rudd will be seeking to wound rather than kill, as he starts far behind on most caucus head-counts. Two such have been published: an error-ridden effort from The Weekend Australian which was corrected the following Monday, and this from the Sydney Morning Herald. The former was rather kinder to Rudd. There are 51 out of 103 whom The Oz and the SMH agree are firm for Gillard, and 30 whom they agree are firm for Rudd. There are four agreed Gillard leaners and four agreed Rudd leaners. The Oz has six down as undecided, but the SMH has everyone as either firm or leaning.
Gillard supporters: Albanese, O’Neill, Combet, Clare, Fitzgibbon, Owens, Arbib, Thistlethwaite, Garrett, Bird, Grierson, Plibersek, Burke (NSW); Shorten, O’Connor, King, Feeney, Macklin, Gillard, Dreyfus, Danby, Roxon, Marles (Vic); Ripoll, Emerson, Perrett, Ludwig, Hogg, Neumann, Swan, D’Ath (Qld); Evans, Gray, Sterle, Smith (WA); McEwen, Farrell, Ellis, Butler, Georganas (SA); Julie Collins, Sidebottom (Tas); Leigh, Brodtmann, Lundy (ACT); Snowdon (NT).
Oz says Gillard lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Rowland (NSW), Livermore (Qld), Gallacher (SA).
Oz says undecided, SMH says firm for Gillard: Hayes (NSW), Jenkins, Jacinta Collins, Kelvin Thomson (Vic).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Craig Thomson (NSW), McLucas (Qld), Rishworth (SA).
Gillard leaners: Craig Thomson, Bradbury (NSW); Bilyk, Polley (Tas).
Oz says undecided, SMH says Gillard lean: Symon (Vic), Singh (Tas).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says Gillard lean: Laurie Ferguson (NSW), Champion (SA).
Oz says firm Rudd, SMH says firm Gillard: Melham (NSW).
Rudd leaners: Murphy (NSW); Pratt (WA); Adams, Lyons (Tas).
Rudd supporters: Bowen, Cameron, Husic, Saffin, Hall, Faulkner, Elliott, Kelly, McClelland, Jones, Stephens (NSW); Griffin, Burke, Byrne, Cheeseman, Marshall, Carr, Smyth, Vamvakinou, Ferguson (Vic); Moore, Rudd, Furner (Qld); Bishop, Parke (WA); Zappia (SA); Urquhart, Brown, Sherry (Tas); Crossin (NT).
If you’re in the mood for diversion, as many have been lately, here is a review of some recent preselection action, in keeping with this site’s brief (together with an even more diverting diversion to New Zealand).
• The Liberals are mulling over whether to proceed with the endorsement of Garry Whitaker to run against Craig Thomson in Dobell, following allegations he has lived for years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there. Whitaker won a preselection vote in December, but there is talk the state executive might overturn the result and install the candidate he defeated, the Right-backed WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara. As for Labor, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports there is “no chance” Thomson will be preselected again, “with party strategists favouring the nomination fo a young woman to create maximum differentiation from the tainted MP”. One possibility is local councillor Emma McBride, whose father Grant McBride bowed out as state member for The Entrance at last year’s state election.
• Joanna Gash, who has held the south coast NSW seat of Gilmore for the Liberals since 1996, announced last month that she would not seek another term. She plans to move her political career down a notch by running in the direct election for mayor of Shoalhaven in September, which will not require her to resign her seat in parliament (UPDATE: A reader points out that the O’Farrell government is planning to change this, and that there is a strong chance it will do so before September.) Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the front-runner to succeed her as Liberal candidate is local deputy mayor Andrew Guile, a former staffer to Gash who has since fallen out with her. Salusinszky reports Guile is an ally of state Kiama MP Gareth Ward, “a member of the party’s Left faction who is influential in local branches”. Clive Brooks, owner of South Nowra business Great Southern Motorcycles and reportedly an ally of Gash, has also been mentioned as a possible contender, as have “conservative pastor Peter Pilt and former 2007 state election candidate Ann Sudmalis” (by Mario Christodoulou of the Illawarra Mercury).
• A Liberal Party preselection vote on Saturday will see incumbent Louise Markus challenged by aged-care lobbyist Charles Wurf in Macquarie. According to Imre Salusinszky in The Australian, local observers consider the contest too close to call: “A defeat of Ms Markus would be a stick in the eye to federal leader Tony Abbott, who backs sitting MPs, and to the state party machine, which does not wish to devote precious campaign resources to marketing an unknown in the ultra-marginal seat.”
• In Eden-Monaro, former Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Peter Hendy is reckoned likely to win Liberal endorsement.
• Andrew Southcott, the Liberal member for the Adelaide seat of Boothby, is being challenged for preselection by Chris Moriarty, former state party president and operator of an export manufacturing firm. Daniel Wills of The Advertiser reports Moriarty is a close ally of former state Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith. Also challenging is Mark Nankivell, whom Wills rates as “little known” but rumoured to be supported by another former state leader, Iain Evans. Southcott’s lax fund-raising efforts are said to have angered many in the party.
• Also under challenge is Patrick Secker in the rural South Australian seat of Barker. He faces rivals in the shape of Mount Gambier lawyer Tony Pasin and Millicent real estate agent and Wattle Range councillor Ben Treloar, but Daniel Wills reports he is expected to prevail.
• New Zealand is conducting a review into its mixed member proportional electoral system, which received a strong endorsement from voters at a referendum held in conjunction with the November election. The main concern to have emerged is that candidates can run both in constituencies and as part of the party lists which are used to top up parties’ representation so that their parliamentary numbers are proportional to the votes cast. The most frequently cited anomaly here relates to the Auckland electorate of Epsom, which has been held since 2005 by Rodney Hine of the free-market Act New Zealand party. The National Party has an interest in the seat remaining in the Act New Zealand fold, as the party is its natural coalition partner and success in a constituency seat entitles it to a share of seats proportional to its vote (a failure to do so would require them to clear a 5 per cent national vote threshold). To this end it has formed the habit of running a candidate in the seat who is also given an unloseable position on the party list, so supporters can be reassured that he will have a seat even if he loses in Epsom. One possibility is that the problem might be lessened by lowering the threshold to 4 per cent, which is what the original royal commission into the electoral system recommended before MMP was introduced in 1996.
Re that list of supporters:
I know one person listed as a Rudd supporter personally. I know this person doesn’t really like Gillard, and they do like Rudd, on a personal level. However, as was made clear to all around when the first bogus list came out, this person will vote Gillard because they see her as a ‘better leader’.
So if one out of one is wrong, I don’t know how much stock can be placed in the rest of it.
Sorry for butting in, back to my daily lurk for me.
OC:
Seems the vast majority of Cabinet are supporting the PM, and have no qualms now speaking frankly about Rudd’s flaws. I don’t think they would want to serve under Rudd again.
A great call to arms, BB.
Voice of Harold
[Re that list of supporters:]
I believe they are called Rudd Rats these days .
TLM
As you did not vote for your endorsed candidate at the last election you – you are certainly due for automatic expulsion under rule -is it 17?
[Does not matter whether Rudd eats babies for breakfast, Swan, Crean and Burke have gone so far as to warrant expulsion.]
Yes Rudd, who has allegedly consistently leaked against the Government should be awarded with the leadership? Come off it daretotread.
BB
[Sky News reported that Dennis Shanahan was crowing that it was his article yesterday on Gillard sacking Rudd that caused Rudd to spit the dummy.]
Today’s Oz front page has the main article wriiten by (in order) Dennis Shanahan and Sid Maher, an opinion article by Dennis Shanahan and an “Inside story” article titled “How a little briefing lit the Labor fuse” by (in order) Dennis Shanahan and Sid Maher. The last includes:
[The story, which appeared on The Australian‘s website at 12.31pm and on News.com.au, would light the fuse on a toxic powder keg of political animosity over the Labor leadership.]
The idea from Peter Beatie that Kev-07 would be swayed by ‘caring about Anna Bligh’ is a bit out there.
[I actually haven’t got any issue with Rudd destabilising Gillard – after all, isn’t that what she and her supporters did to him almost 2 years ago?]
You have now said in very few words your whole interest in fed politics. For you it’s not about policy. For you it is about revenge. Rudd has had his revenge several times over with his deceitful ways. He was treated with kid gloves by the PM and ministers who protected his reputation by covering up for the real reasons for his removal. He had a chance to play the team game and rebuild relationships. He chose instead to focus only on himself.
janice2 @85
That article now makes so much more sense.
Danny
You seem like a pretty rational poster but really you cannot seriously believe that Gillard was not up to her neck in destabilisation of Rudd in 2010. Gillard is a player always was and does it well. The very REASON for her skill as a negotiator is her skill as a player in the factional games.
I have no particular issue with this – she is a politician. I DO have an issue with people who have one rule for my team and another for yours. I have little doubt that Rudd was kicking where he could but so too have been Crean supporters as well as former Beazely backers into Rudd. As was Gilar, Shorten and others in Rudd’s time.
z
For three years here, a large group of the Labortariat worshipped at the feet of the golden statue of Rudd. He was so clever, all things to all men and could do no wrong. I endlessly told you that wasn’t the case, commentary which was very poorly received.
And now you expect the public to believe it is all Rudd’s fault.
Were you lot wrong all those years?
Just a catch-up post from the other thread
[4565.
Gorgeous Dunny
Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 8:31 am | Permalink
Greensborough Growler
Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 1:50 am | Permalink
GD,
You are being very kind to me tonght.
Thank you.]
Merit when it’s due. I remember back to the revolt. It was really the most shocking thing and I could not understand Gillard’s decision suddenly to change. It went against her character and, of course, undermined some of her credibility after being so publicly firm against such a move.
I reluctantly gave her the benefit because I had long admired her. It seems clear now that the chaos occurring at ministerial and administrative levels ultimately left her with no choice. It was becoming unworkable and the party was tearing itself apart – a terrible outcome for a first-term government.
In the sparring on the blog I do remember that you and fredn were very critical of the action at the time. But later as things started to get done in very difficult circumstances, you two were among the first to understand that – that we had a PM that was a nation-builder who was getting some great things in place. The level of difficulty did not seem to matter. She proved the point that politics is the art of the possible.
Until the Rudd whiteanting reached its current climax (4C I/V was the ultimate stuff up! Really?! It was just another bit of media entrails-gazing, fed by … guess. I still remain dismayed at the public broadcaster being dragged into such cheap gotchas. And that was supposed to prove she had no judgement and was underhanded!), I had remained very confident about Oct 2013. The other side is a black hole. Our side will have some great programs in place and still be a world-leading economy.
The psephs and a few of the more astute observers here have said she cannot recover from all the direct hits she’s taken. They may be right. But that view doesn’t seem to take into account that Gillard has always aimed at the longer game. Nor that she has firmly digested the last election campaign review, which was that Labor must have values and stand for some things, rather than slither and wither in the media and polls reaction.
We shall see, comrade. As for the immediate situation, I like the fact that Gillard has remained aloof from the groundfire. Even if the aftermath is a Ruddbath I’d expect that to continue.
The best thing to come out of this is that Bruce Hawker is history.
He has been an absolute disaster for the ALP for too long.
Tony Abbott is as vacuous in print as he is in speech..In the SMH today he has an article ‘discussing’ foreign policy. Basically it says, ‘ Anything the US says is fine by me.”
I wont link because i dont like to promote stupidity…But his lack of analysis is frightening..
DTT
[you cannot seriously believe that Gillard was not up to her neck in destabilisation of Rudd in 2010.]
What destabilisation was that? The coup took the press gallery completely by surprise.
Abbott now on 774.
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
Come on you jokers who support PM Gillard & ALP. I’ve done my bits with my BISONs nobody can deny. Now it’s your turn http://afrankview.net/2012/02/australias-great-bisons-beautiful-inspiring-set-of-numbers/
And Diog, you just get it. Sometimes, you have to be cruel to be kind. You should teach your children that
There is a very big difference between destabilising your own party leader when the party is in office and has the lead in the polls compared to when the party is behind in the polls or in an election campaign.
The first scenario hurts the leader.
The second scenario hurts the leader and the party.
The first scenario might mean you can get a second shot.
The second scenario means you destroy the party and make many enemies for life.
Hawker has misread things if he thinks the capacity is going to be there for a second challenge from Rudd.
[Interesting to hear Barry Cassidy very confident re the numbers – most one sided contest ever – mentioned the AFR approached the 12 most marginal seat holders and 11 backed Julia.]
If that’s the case he won’t run. Sorry, let me rephrase that – he will run – as far from a contest as he can.
Diog
Yes, certainly I was. As I said, I was gobsmacked at how much hatred there was for Rudd amongst those in the know. Now I understand it.
And he is clever. As someone who’s attracted to intelligence, that attracted me.
I’ve always given Rudd the benefit of the doubt. Turns out he didn’t deserve that.
I don’t expect the public to believe anything. Things have fallen into place for me, though, and a lot of mysteries have been solved.
This was inevitable. It’s necessary. It might be messy, but the government needs to get it out of the way and get on with governing.
There’s too many good things being done for one man’s sense of entitlement to be allowed to get in the way.
I dont agree with how public this has become. I dont know how Swan’s spray helps anything. He must be confident that Gilllard has the numbers to do this.
What a disgrace that we actually have lists of supporters when this should be an internal party matters.
I heard Toolman on ABC saying that if Gillard gets 2/3, he would repeatedly ask her when she was discussing new policy, “but you dont have the support of 1/3 of your colleagues”. Strange, I’ve never heard him say to Abbott, “but you dont have the support of /12 of your colleagues”
triton
I will pass listening to another nutter!
Interesting: Therese Rein will be appearing on Weekend Sunrise this weekend.
I suppose the anti-Rudd clique in here will start trashing her as well.
Daretotread,
I hate to say this but reading your posts over the past few weeks, you come across to me as a person who, once having formed an opinion, will never ever admit you were conned. I think that if Kevin Rudd actually “eats babies for breakfast” right in front of your eyes you would deny what your eyes saw. What you are doing right now is blaming the victims for the treacherous acts of the perpertrator. Rudd has turned out to be a rotten apple in the barrel. Did you happen to read the link I posted at 84?
Rudd is putting himself above the interests of every single Australian and his party. He knows the damage he is doing to Anna Bligh.
He used a *faceless man* to even get into the Parliament and knifed Beasley to become leader. When challenged he didn’t have the balls to even contest the spill.
Lets see if he stands this time. Its been easy to leak and destabilise, lets see him show some balls for once – stand and let his party choose it leader.
daretotread
[I think that the only winner out of the unedifying displays by Swan, Burke, Gibbons, Crean and to a lesser extent O’Connor and Emerson is Tony Abbott.]
Yes, Abbott will be the eventual winner, but not for your prejudiced reasons.
Rudd has apparently been negotiating with the big boys (the media owners, pokies, mining, business, etc). Replace Gillard with me and I will “see you right”.
But in the next election, whenever it is, they will all abandon Rudd and support Abbott. That’s their real target.
sorry 1/2 of your colleagues
deflationite
but if you’re behind in the polls because of the actions of one person, you shouldn’t then reward that person by making them the leader.
[Yes Rudd, who has allegedly consistently leaked against the Government should be awarded with the leadership?]
That practice worked for Gillard and she was successfull.
Very interesting to read all of the Gillard supports dredging up any hearsay and slur to tarnish Rudd (even if it comes from the media they despise).
But ask yourself one question: if Rudd was so difficult to work with why didn’t even ONE senior cabinet minister take him aside and counsel him about him. The only conclusion that can be drawn is that they either didn’t have a big problem with him or they are sniveling wretches. Take your pick. There is no other option.
In any event, if I was looking for a weather vane in all of this it would be Doogie Cameron. If he thinks Rudd’s OK, Rudd’s OK with me.
I actually was a Gillard supporter and thought she would win the next election until the Pokies debacle. Then I realised that the Labor party is run by soulless factions who only care about retail politics. Now I think she’s got no hope.
If Rudd now has anywhere near 40 supporters already, her goose is totally cooked.
Expect to see Bill Shorten as Treasurer. Whatever happens, he won’t miss out.
I wish to apologise to any poster that I may have criticised who had suggested that Rudd was destabilising. Its clear that he was.
Full marks to Boerwar
Chris Bowen and Kim Carr have yet to emerge from their bunker to support their candidate.
At this stage Doug Cameron will be FM and Darren Cheeseman Treasurer with Rudd. Quite scary if you think about it.
[Rudd and his pal Hawker had a special phone installed in the PMs office for their use]
Is this true? If so, can someone explain what was going on?
[but if you’re behind in the polls because of the actions of one person, you shouldn’t then reward that person by making them the leader.]
ALP is behind in the polls becasue of Gillards poor politicial performance it is nothing to do with Rudd leaking information. Gillard must take ownership of this.
Interesting that Gilbert couldn’t get any opps MPs for his show this morning. Only Abbott has been doing media.
[I heard Toolman on ABC saying that if Gillard gets 2/3, he would repeatedly ask her when she was discussing new policy, “but you dont have the support of 1/3 of your colleagues”. ]
Little batarde. Is that supposed to be intelligent interviewing?
Evan,
You can just cease judging everyone else by your own rotten standards. Therese and her family would not get any respect from me if they did not defend their husband and father, regardless that he’s a traitorous rat.
[So if one out of one is wrong, I don’t know how much stock can be placed in the rest of it.]
Maybe R*dd can rely on his 7 Chinese brothers?
Reality is Rudd will be challenging in Dec and will be PM by the end of year. Conroy, Swan etc can say they can’t work with the guy well if they stick with Julia they will be working with her in opposition.
rosa
I am not a Gillard supporter or a Rudd supporter. I am a Labor supporter.
A lot of mysteries have become clear to me over the past few hours. In a way, it’s a relief.
[I heard Toolman on ABC saying that if Gillard gets 2/3, he would repeatedly ask her when she was discussing new policy, “but you dont have the support of 1/3 of your colleagues”.]
What about asking Abbott about not having the support of 49% of his colleagues?
Oh, I forgot, we don’t ask Tone questions. My bad.
confessions
Faine said earlier that all the Rudd backers had sudenly gone to ground, too.
PBers
Re this comment earlier:
[They now have proof he has been actively campaigning against the government – that goes close to making him a Labor rat, a Labor mouse maybe]
I have read Swan’s statement and I have heard that there may have been an issue of Rudd meeting with Clubs Australia, etc. My first reaction is to trust Swan. But is there convincing, third party evidence that Rudd has either leaked to the press or had these meetings or generally destabilised? That is not a rhetorical question, by the way. It’s just that I am catching up with events and I am wondering whether any journos have come out and supported the allegations? I heard Emerson on LL last night and he said journos were telling him about Rudd’s destabilisation.
Swan’s statement was direct but a little equivocal re the 2010 destabilisation (ie the Oakes leaks). I am just cautious that those opposed to Rudd in the Caucus need to have their ducks in a row if they are going to demolish Rudd.
So, to repeat the question, can anyone give me a link or direction on whether there has there been any independent third party confirmation of Rudd’s destabilisation?
Any guesses as to who the four journos are who were colluding with Rudd? Hartcher and Grattan for sure. Shanahan?
Whether we win in 2013 or not, it’s secondary to me. My biffs have always been:
1. Once Rudd rolled, i accept ALP decision.
2. Once Gillard became PM. She was never given the chance to govern by her opponents inside, outside and the #MSMhacks
3. Once rolled Rudd has been whiteanting Gillard. It’s there for all to see. Yet, yesterday he can in straight face said NO
In the immortal words of John Dean to Tricky Dicky: “Mr. President, we have cancer in the Administration”.
27 zoomster
Great post from a proven party loyalist.
Kevin about to hold a press conference as well – will he go before Julia???
Annoying thing is I have to go to work and will miss most of the “fun” 🙁
Have a great day All
p.s. I hope Julia has a decent dig today, especially about how she now has proof he has been ratting on the party
Jessica Rudd takes after her father.
“Just a coincidence” that her book followed his story?
OK, so she’s a loyal daughter, but…
Rudd live now.