The government is down a Foreign Minister this evening (the Canberra Times reports on the likely shape of the looming reshuffle, in case you were wondering), and by all accounts the Prime Minister will seek to clear the air tomorrow by calling a leadership spill for Monday. This makes the timing of the next Newspoll very interesting indeed: usually it reports on Monday evening, but it occasionally emerges a day earlier. The Prime Minister would presumably prefer that the matter be resolved before it comes out rather than after.
Beyond that, I do not venture to guess what will occur, beyond observing the consensus view that Kevin Rudd will be seeking to wound rather than kill, as he starts far behind on most caucus head-counts. Two such have been published: an error-ridden effort from The Weekend Australian which was corrected the following Monday, and this from the Sydney Morning Herald. The former was rather kinder to Rudd. There are 51 out of 103 whom The Oz and the SMH agree are firm for Gillard, and 30 whom they agree are firm for Rudd. There are four agreed Gillard leaners and four agreed Rudd leaners. The Oz has six down as undecided, but the SMH has everyone as either firm or leaning.
Gillard supporters: Albanese, O’Neill, Combet, Clare, Fitzgibbon, Owens, Arbib, Thistlethwaite, Garrett, Bird, Grierson, Plibersek, Burke (NSW); Shorten, O’Connor, King, Feeney, Macklin, Gillard, Dreyfus, Danby, Roxon, Marles (Vic); Ripoll, Emerson, Perrett, Ludwig, Hogg, Neumann, Swan, D’Ath (Qld); Evans, Gray, Sterle, Smith (WA); McEwen, Farrell, Ellis, Butler, Georganas (SA); Julie Collins, Sidebottom (Tas); Leigh, Brodtmann, Lundy (ACT); Snowdon (NT).
Oz says Gillard lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Rowland (NSW), Livermore (Qld), Gallacher (SA).
Oz says undecided, SMH says firm for Gillard: Hayes (NSW), Jenkins, Jacinta Collins, Kelvin Thomson (Vic).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Craig Thomson (NSW), McLucas (Qld), Rishworth (SA).
Gillard leaners: Craig Thomson, Bradbury (NSW); Bilyk, Polley (Tas).
Oz says undecided, SMH says Gillard lean: Symon (Vic), Singh (Tas).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says Gillard lean: Laurie Ferguson (NSW), Champion (SA).
Oz says firm Rudd, SMH says firm Gillard: Melham (NSW).
Rudd leaners: Murphy (NSW); Pratt (WA); Adams, Lyons (Tas).
Rudd supporters: Bowen, Cameron, Husic, Saffin, Hall, Faulkner, Elliott, Kelly, McClelland, Jones, Stephens (NSW); Griffin, Burke, Byrne, Cheeseman, Marshall, Carr, Smyth, Vamvakinou, Ferguson (Vic); Moore, Rudd, Furner (Qld); Bishop, Parke (WA); Zappia (SA); Urquhart, Brown, Sherry (Tas); Crossin (NT).
If you’re in the mood for diversion, as many have been lately, here is a review of some recent preselection action, in keeping with this site’s brief (together with an even more diverting diversion to New Zealand).
• The Liberals are mulling over whether to proceed with the endorsement of Garry Whitaker to run against Craig Thomson in Dobell, following allegations he has lived for years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there. Whitaker won a preselection vote in December, but there is talk the state executive might overturn the result and install the candidate he defeated, the Right-backed WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara. As for Labor, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports there is “no chance” Thomson will be preselected again, “with party strategists favouring the nomination fo a young woman to create maximum differentiation from the tainted MP”. One possibility is local councillor Emma McBride, whose father Grant McBride bowed out as state member for The Entrance at last year’s state election.
• Joanna Gash, who has held the south coast NSW seat of Gilmore for the Liberals since 1996, announced last month that she would not seek another term. She plans to move her political career down a notch by running in the direct election for mayor of Shoalhaven in September, which will not require her to resign her seat in parliament (UPDATE: A reader points out that the O’Farrell government is planning to change this, and that there is a strong chance it will do so before September.) Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the front-runner to succeed her as Liberal candidate is local deputy mayor Andrew Guile, a former staffer to Gash who has since fallen out with her. Salusinszky reports Guile is an ally of state Kiama MP Gareth Ward, “a member of the party’s Left faction who is influential in local branches”. Clive Brooks, owner of South Nowra business Great Southern Motorcycles and reportedly an ally of Gash, has also been mentioned as a possible contender, as have “conservative pastor Peter Pilt and former 2007 state election candidate Ann Sudmalis” (by Mario Christodoulou of the Illawarra Mercury).
• A Liberal Party preselection vote on Saturday will see incumbent Louise Markus challenged by aged-care lobbyist Charles Wurf in Macquarie. According to Imre Salusinszky in The Australian, local observers consider the contest too close to call: “A defeat of Ms Markus would be a stick in the eye to federal leader Tony Abbott, who backs sitting MPs, and to the state party machine, which does not wish to devote precious campaign resources to marketing an unknown in the ultra-marginal seat.”
• In Eden-Monaro, former Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Peter Hendy is reckoned likely to win Liberal endorsement.
• Andrew Southcott, the Liberal member for the Adelaide seat of Boothby, is being challenged for preselection by Chris Moriarty, former state party president and operator of an export manufacturing firm. Daniel Wills of The Advertiser reports Moriarty is a close ally of former state Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith. Also challenging is Mark Nankivell, whom Wills rates as “little known” but rumoured to be supported by another former state leader, Iain Evans. Southcott’s lax fund-raising efforts are said to have angered many in the party.
• Also under challenge is Patrick Secker in the rural South Australian seat of Barker. He faces rivals in the shape of Mount Gambier lawyer Tony Pasin and Millicent real estate agent and Wattle Range councillor Ben Treloar, but Daniel Wills reports he is expected to prevail.
• New Zealand is conducting a review into its mixed member proportional electoral system, which received a strong endorsement from voters at a referendum held in conjunction with the November election. The main concern to have emerged is that candidates can run both in constituencies and as part of the party lists which are used to top up parties’ representation so that their parliamentary numbers are proportional to the votes cast. The most frequently cited anomaly here relates to the Auckland electorate of Epsom, which has been held since 2005 by Rodney Hine of the free-market Act New Zealand party. The National Party has an interest in the seat remaining in the Act New Zealand fold, as the party is its natural coalition partner and success in a constituency seat entitles it to a share of seats proportional to its vote (a failure to do so would require them to clear a 5 per cent national vote threshold). To this end it has formed the habit of running a candidate in the seat who is also given an unloseable position on the party list, so supporters can be reassured that he will have a seat even if he loses in Epsom. One possibility is that the problem might be lessened by lowering the threshold to 4 per cent, which is what the original royal commission into the electoral system recommended before MMP was introduced in 1996.
And Craig Thomson
dave
It would be nice if Pies did everyone a favour and started the same analyisis on Abbott. He is another boil that needs lancing
TLM
Gillard did not go around telling interest groups that, if she were to be PM, she would give them what they wanted.
When elected as PM, she worked to deliver the same program Rudd had put in place.
Of course you don’t have any issue with Rudd destabilising Gillard. It’s what you yourself have been doing for months.
Julia press conference at 9.30 SA time, i.e 10 am real time
Interesting to hear Barry Cassidy very confident re the numbers – most one sided contest ever – mentioned the AFR approached the 12 most marginal seat holders and 11 backed Julia.
Good morning all.
Ever since he was dumped, I had been giving him the benefit of the doubt that he was not consciously out to harm Labor. It absolutely mind blowing to discover the extent of his treachery since the 2010 election, but even worse are the revelations as to what he was up to after 2007 election.
I never ever understood why the media went feral against Julia Guillard but now we find out that the treacherous Rudd and his pal Hawker had a special phone installed in the PMs office for their use. While he was PM, Rudd set out to remodel the Labor Party to his own design and effectively make himself top dog of the party as well as the government. His media pals gave him every support in return for being allowed in the loop to help run Australia and after he was dumped, they continued to help him get back in. Talk about a Gadaffi personality.
I hope he comes out of this with his mind and heart shredded to bits.
Last night Mark Latham predicted that Hartcher would write a glowing article of why Labor should change leaders yet again. And true to form, here it is.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/an-ash-wednesday-appeal-to-the-true-believers-20120222-1toaz.html
My recollection is that in 2010 election campaign polls were good for JG until leaks.Is that correct?
Good Morning Bludgers,
For those that haven’t listened, this audio stream http://bit.ly/wi1BO3 goes someway to explaining why JG got no traction in her leadership and also acknowledges that Rudd was the source of those election leaks that saw her limp over the line.
Remarkably, Rudd was allegedly doing deals with the some editors to run his anti Gillard schtick in return, he would drop the media enquiry.
Both Rudd and the media make me sick. The na, na, ne, na, na chorus from the media make’s me sick. Real, yes. They had a hand in making it so. The reason they couldn’t ‘make the rumours’ stick was because they’d done a deal with Rudd to bring down PM.
A new twist from ABC radio news. A spill on Monday will be unfair to snookums – Doogie says so.
janice2
Hear bloody hear
Rudd has strategy- team Julia have twitter and twitts, and little else
True, he got rid of Howie, but he is prepared to destroy the government agenda, legislation and policies for his own interests.
Oh yeah, like the pokies card and that great ALP member Wilkie, and these Smiling ALP members (called the Greens) who smiled with a big smerk on their face during the carbon tax announcement and immediately start telling everyone, they forced the ALP to adopt their policies
I for one cannot see Rudd selling out Australians like that…. note the polls for Gilard pummetted during this period
Where is DTT this morning. All Ministers are now coming out telling us how bad it was working with Rudd.
Arguably the leak cost them an outright election victory RNM1953 – it was a shocker and came at the worst time, not sure about the polling figures but someone here will know for sure
[Remarkably, Rudd was allegedly doing deals with the some editors to run his anti Gillard schtick in return, he would drop the media enquiry.]
I always wondered why Ruddstoration talk was ALWAYS accompanied by talk of dropping the carbon price.
Now we know why.
Good advice for yourself. Pity you haven’t taken that same advice long before now.
Not much further by way of consolation coming the way of rudd supporters.
I’m sure the leaks damaged Gillard’s campaign irreversibly, but there were lots of other factors as well such as her poor debate performance, some real clunkers of policy announcements early on (the citizen’s assembly, cash for clunkers etc.). Interestingly, a lot of people here refused to believe it was Rudd or his supporters leaking against Gillard during the campaign, claiming it was a media conspiracy.
Windsor on RN says Rudd will be smashed
[I actually haven’t got any issue with Rudd destabilising Gillard]
Any pretense to being a Labor voter is gone right there.
I agree with you that changing leaders in 2010 in the manner they did was dumb. Hicksville dumb. But it happened. And remember that Rudd RESIGNED – he was not “knifed”, “assassinated” or “stabbed in the back”. He was told he had lost the confidence of his colleagues and asked for a leadership ballot. He could have chosen to stay and fight, but he didn’t. He didn’t want to test the numbers, clearly.
HOWEVER, to then spend the next 18 months leaking to the media – including during an election campaign, FFS – promising to change policy behind your colleagues’ backs and generally white-anting any attempt your party has had to get on the front foot is in a different league.
And I remind you that there is NO evidence that Gillard was anything other than a loyal deputy – even at the 11th hour – except in the fevered imaginings of those who hate her. She had the option presented to her – as Deputy PM, remember – take the top job or we’ll give it to someone else. Someone who, no doubt, did not have her experience. If you were a loyal Labor Party member, you’d take the job if you believed you were the best person for it.
That’s what it comes down to, really. Of the two of them, who has acted in the best interests of the Party and the nation and who has displayed more interest in themselves?
IF he even has the balls to stand.
Fran wants an election now – will Windsor oblige?
For a lot that claim they’re not interested in personalities, the Gillard camp seem to be spending an inordinate amount of time defaming their former leader.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/we-need-to-talk-about-kevin–rudd-that-is-20100607-xnv5.html
David Marr on Kev-07 some time ago.
Good reading for those who are just waking up.
And Tony Windsor will be smashed at the next election, along with his offsider Oakeshott.
Colluding with editors to run anti-Labor stories, stories against your own leader in return for giving vested interests what they want should you ever get to be PM again, is appalling. It speaks volumes as to the man Rudd is.
How can anyone claiming to be a Labor supporter endorse this kind of treachery from one person against his own colleagues and against the party which has given him a job for the last 12 years?
TLL:
Tony Windsor is trusted in his electorate. He is a fine person with integrity.
Smashed at the next election? I don’t think so. Check his percentages at the last poll.
Methinks Julia does a good job of destabilising herself, she doesn’t need much help from Rudd.
TLM
Truth is a defence against accusations of defamation.
In other words, stating facts is not dematory.
Haven’t answered my question TLM
Well let see the Party test it, vote on it.
If Rudd doesn’t stand he is gutless.
z
Lots of what you said is probably true but as someone who is independent and doesn’t care if it’s Rudd or Gillard, this whole thing makes your party look like a rabble.
Both sides are childish, disloyal and unprofessional.
I hope that people can see more than winning the R v G fight in their sides favor. They could win the battle but main themselves so badly they get killed in the war, which is against the opponent Abbott, not your own side.
It’s a joke.
Danny Lewis
There was months of leaks before the last leadership challenge, the majority of it from Simon Crean (irony), Gillard’s staffer even penned her challenge speech weeks before Rudd standing down. It was also Gillard who wanted Rudd to drop the ETS, which has never been denied by Gillard
I this what happened in 2010 was much worst then what Rudd did
Latham pointed out last night that Rudd has a history of running but not having the numbers and pulling out. In fact, he’s only had no more than 12-20 of his own votes. The only time Rudd won, was on the back of Gillards numbers.
http://www.vexnews.com/2012/02/bruce-the-goose-independents-approached-by-rudd-boosting-millionaire-lobbyist-bruce-hawker-over-leadership/
Current residents of Monsterland are Godzilla, Rodan, Mothra, Anguirus, Gorosaurus, Kumonga, Minilla, Baragon, Manda and Varan. They will have to make room for KRudd and Gillard after next week. I reckon the other monsters might want to find another island!
Yes, it’s got that silly!
don
Windsor will retire at the next election. Pollings, to which Windsor has access to, have consistently shown he has no chance to win at the next election, he is way behind
Julia Gillard – the reluctant PM.
‘Told’ Kev-07 to drop the Climate stuff – crap I think. Kev-07 went to water after Copenhagen. More likely she said if it’s not climate change what’s the next plan?
Speech being written in her office? – the vast majority of Caucas had decided Kev-07 was going – to Gillard ‘do it or some one else will be PM’.
She said early in her PM’ship she’d rather be doing ‘education. True I’d say.
[For a lot that claim they’re not interested in personalities, the Gillard camp seem to be spending an inordinate amount of time defaming their former leader.]
For a guy who claims to be a Labor man you sure spend an inordinate amount of time defaming their current leader.
Yes, as one MP said yesterday, it’s a laugh being lectured to by Simon Crean about loyalty.
Methinks Swan, Crean, Emerson, Burke, Roxon have all overreached too far – if Rudd gets the top job back, none of those individuals can ever serve on the front bench again, and it’d be no great loss anyway(especially in the case of Crean).
Dio
A lot of truth in your comments.
Time to clear the air once and for all.
But its not in Rudds interests to have *the air cleared*.
He is gutless if he doesn’t stand.
Diogenes
I agree that, on cursory examination, things look chaotic.
However, if you factor in Rudd’s apparent continual undermining of the party and the government, including working hand in glove with the press and disaffected interest groups, what we have had is a government and party hamstrung by one of their own.
It isn’t a rabble. It is an organisation which has been trying to get on with the job, fairly consistently and reasonably, whilst being undermined from within.
This is all the work of one man. It is necessary to remove him and he is being removed.
Agree with some of what you say Dio but an enduring meme of the press is that Gillard’s rule is illegitimate because no one explained why Rudd had to go. A certain amount of dirt needs to be thrown publicly
Listening to Rudd’s “speech” last night and this morning, I was gobsmacked that he could be so self-serving.
After 18 months of white-anting, his supporters are now claiming that 5 days to organize his numbers is not enough!
Sky News reported that Dennis Shanahan was crowing that it was his article yesterday on Gillard sacking Rudd that caused Rudd to spit the dummy. Whether this is true or not, it shows that certain large sections of the media believe they can influence events as players, not reporters.
It’s all about Rudd isn’t it? He was the one who was hard done by over the past 18 months. He is the one who was deserted by Gillard. He is the one who was niggled at by leaks. He should be given as much time as he wants to continue white-anting her, or else he’ll persist in his destabilization.
The bottom line is that Rudd, deprived of his bat and ball, and not permitted anymore to be team captain, ratted on the party. After he was deposed, they tried to be decent to him, to save his feelings and keep the party together. None of that matters, or mattered to him. He went on, snake-oiling the same media cockroaches who had so viciously undermined him when he was PM. He sent a flunky to Oakes with gossip from the cabinet room. He sent a flunky to the Clubs to schmooze them too. He’s reportedly promised to water down the MRRT and the Carbon Tax… all behind the backs of his party, and against their and the nation’s definite interests, the chief of which is stability. But by sending flunkies, he can officially deny he had anything to do with it. Does anyone believe him, besides himself? Can the media, who have been reporting his direct feelings on a range of matters, now turn around and say they made it up? That they hadn’t actually talked to him after all? Or did they only talk to flunkies too?
Sacked unanimously by his colleagues in 2010 he never accepted the demotion. The most boozy, coke-addicted, skirt-chasing, rave-partying footy captain, sacked for bringing the game or the club into disrepute, accepts demotions like this, goes on the field the next Saturday, and plays on. But not Rudd, who seems to fancy himself as the Messiah revisited. Prepared to trash his party by leaking to the press, he doesn’t seem to care about the damage he’s done. Perhaps he even relishes it.
From the day Rudd caved in to Barrie Cassidy and delivered he famous apology for everything he’d done, and everything party followers had argued for so passionately, he has shown that mere opinion polls and nasty newspaper articles are enough to send him weak at the knees, and to set about cutting his supporters off at theirs.
If anything, the last couple of days’ events prove that the decision to get rid of him two years ago was the correct one. Rudd fans tell us that he is only doing to Gillard what she did to him. This is wrong. He is doing much worse. He’s prepared to bring governments down to get his way, so that he can preside over the empty shell of a burnt out house. He was prepared to seed the press gallery with damaging gossip during an election campaign. Anything to purge the hatred he felt.
Rudd is not a man. He’s a mouse. He has no chance of winning the coming ballot, so he’s doing as much damage as he possibly can before he’s defeated. He’s let it be known that when he loses he’ll continue to destroy, like some malignant tumour, a few of its cancerous cells missed by the surgeon who tried to cut it out.
I hope Gillard dumps the biggest possible bucket on him today and in the coming days. Now is not the time for diplomacy. It was until yesterday. Now it’s all hands to the pumps, filling those buckets to overflowing.
Well let see the Party test it, vote on it.
If Rudd doesn’t stand he is gutless.
Its really that straight forward.
Morning. Roxon on 774 now.
[David Bradbury MP @DavidBradburyMP
Just about to go on Sky AM Agenda
8:35 AM – 23 Feb 12]
Dio – Things are chaotic.
The question is can the Lib leadership use the advantage in the face of their lack of policy and Malcolm Turnbulls appeal.
If Rudd gets back would any of them WANT to serve under Rudd – there would be much more pleasant things to do. How that man can call himself a Christian and act the way he does I’ll never now. Still a lot of fundamentalist Christians believe that by saying they are followers of Christ they can do no wrong.
Think Big
I think that the only winner out of the unedifying displays by Swan, Burke, Gibbons, Crean and to a lesser extent O’Connor and Emerson is Tony Abbott.
I think probably Rudd is damaged by the sprays, but not as much as the whole Labor brand. I do not see how anyone can go out into the community and ask for a vote for this mob of self destructive children.
Does not matter whether Rudd eats babies for breakfast, Swan, Crean and Burke have gone so far as to warrant expulsion.