Morgan face-to-face: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition

The final Morgan face-to-face poll for the year is a surprisingly good one for Labor, producing a set of primary vote figures that scans out to 50-50 on two-party preferred if minor party and independent preferences are allocated in the same proportions as per the 2010 election result (the method used by all pollsters other than Morgan, with good reason). Labor’s primary vote is unchanged on the previous poll at 36.5 per cent, but the Coalition is well down from 46.5 per cent to 43 per cent, with the Greens up three points to 13 per cent. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends, from a combined sample of 1950.

Morgan’s headline two-party figure of 53.5-46.5, which is obtained by asking minor party and independent supporters to whom they would direct their preference, is quite a bit less impressive for Labor, and underscores a very odd feature of Morgan’s face-to-face polling this year: their respondent-allocated preferences have been splitting about 50-50 between Labor and the Coalition. Not only is this entirely unlike any election result in recent history, it also flatly contradicts the other pollster which publishes a respondent-allocated two-party result: Nielsen, which has given Labor a mid-60s share of minor party and independent preferences in each of its last five monthly polls, consistent with what election results would lead us to expect.

For this reason, Morgan’s 50-50 result is obviously a more meaningful extrapolation from its primary vote figure. However, this brings us to Morgan’s other problem: that those primary vote figures appear to be consistently biased to Labor. Labor’s 36.5 per cent in both the past two polls compares with 29 per cent from the most recent Nielsen, 31 per cent from Newspoll and 35 per cent from Essential Research (which tends to have Labor higher and the Greens lower than the phone pollsters – the limited evidence available suggests it is Essential which is more accurate).

Finally, the Poll Bludger will be going into hibernation from Christmas Day until January 8 inclusive, which is to say the site will still be accessible but comments will be closed. Thanks to all (well, almost all) who have contributed throughout the year, and I look forward to hearing from you again in a fortnight or so.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,200 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition”

Comments Page 41 of 44
1 … 40 41 42 … 44

  3. CTar1,

    Thanks for that. Will try. Still working out the settings, etc, but it appears to be a goer. The manual is rubbish, so it’s trial and error. Apparently, it’s possible to update the firmware, via USB. That’s one for the back burner, methinks.

    At this point, it replays smoothly, I think. About to record an SBS program on really big aircraft. Hope it works! Cheers for Xmas.

  4. bemused,

    [OK up to a point, but if you want uncooked prawns to use in a recipe then you have to buy what you can get. ]

    IGA have been stocking packets of frozen uncooked & cooked prawns at “very” reasonable prices. They come from China but I have used them quite a number of times lately & they are excellent.

    I believe they are farmed bananas. Last night we did a stir-fry with Singapore Noodles, Thai stir-fry sauce and a kilo of uncooked prawns as described.

    Marvelous! Saves having to sit for ages peeling green bananas & getting all the cuts etc from the said business.

  5. [Tony is now looking for 3 wise men, tried Hockey, Robb and Joyce. Threw up, keeps up the journey.]

    So that’s why he needed to work X-mas day.

    For Pete’s sake! 😉

  7. Anyway, I got the medium sized ones for $20 a kilo and the big ones for $27 per kilo, cooked, shells and heads on. The dogs eat the shells and heads. I dunno what they are like up your way, but the ones from SA waters are delish to the max.

  8. Tony next went looking for Gold, Frankincense and Myrrh.

    Gold aha thinks Tony the RBA, I remember Peter saying something about Gold and the RBA.

    Wot Costello sold it all, crap. Where the hell do I get Frankincense? (note Frank Incense).

    TBC…

  9. Scorpio

    For Pete’s sake!

    Fixed it for you;

    For petas sake.

    Ruawake

    That’s the manger and the three wise men taken care of. Is he likely to find a virgin?

  10. Puff @ 1997
    [As far as the prawns are concerned, South Australian King prawns are the king of prawns, imo.]

    Agreed, though having worked on trawlers in Spencer Gulf the amount of by-catch is a real worry. Everything caught in the trawl will die, except the sharks and a few rays.
    Scale fish lose one scale and they will slowly die. Blue crabs lose all their claws, fish of every description are just tossed away like so much garbage.
    Nets are indiscriminate, they catch everything and all that is kept are the prawns.
    Yep, I’m cynical about the whole industry.
    Sorry to be the skeleton at the feast.

  12. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    [The dogs eat the shells and heads. I dunno what they are like up your way, but the ones from SA waters are delish to the max. ]

    I believe the heads taste much the same no matter where you are! 😉

  13. Gaffhook,

    [That’s the manger and the three wise men taken care of. Is he likely to find a virgin? ]

    Oh Gaffy, that’s the absolute pearler of a story there.

    Tone thought he found a virgin but some bloke had beaten him to her.

    It was in all the papers. I laughed till I cried over that! 😉

  14. Next Tony decided he did not like Incense. Hippy Greeny stuff especially the Frank variety. (www.afrankview.net)

    So his last chance was Myrrh. What the Turnbull is Myrrh? Tone gasps. “Myrrh is an Arabic word for bitter, and it is considered a wound healer because of its strong antiseptic and anti-inflammatory properties.” Whispers Plod Dutton.

    Ah for flips sake, Roxon cut my nuts off over health, Tanya was sharpening her tools last week, I saw it, truley ruley.

    I shoda been in the ladge you pack of bastards.

  17. Scringler – Keep Good. I think I’ve unintentionally offended ‘Political Animal’ and Frank will think (all due respect, Frank!) I’m wishy- washy centre (possibly right) so have the best festive season you can (well without totalling yourself) !

    I’ll be back to give my silly ideas on where Leveson is going and my uninformed views of other discussed stuff when William decides to ‘extract his digit’ – How much of a wimp can the boy be? As a group we are very well behaved!

  19. grey
    Apparently they are trying to get around that problem.
    [Considerable technological advances have been made in the way the catch is handled. These practices are particularly advanced in the Spencer Gulf fishery, with the use of ‘crab bags’ to exclude mega-fauna bycatch, ‘hoppers’ for efficient sorting of the catch and rapid return of bycatch, ‘graders’ to sort the prawns into marketable size categories, and onboard freezing facilities that enable full processing on-board.
    ]
    http://www.pir.sa.gov.au/fisheries/commercial_fishing/prawn_gulf_st_vincent_fishery
    But I take your point about everything else getting caught and wasted. if it is caught it should used.

  20. gus

    Thanks for raising the issue. Of course the Bethleham Star was in fact one of Ruperts first dalies. Yes he is very very old, probably older than his mother.

    The Star lead Tone to his economic team, hear endeth the lesson. 🙂

  22. grey,

    Throwing back by-catch from prawn trawling is the biggest joke of all time.

    Worse than that, in my opinion it is a scandal. When I went out on that trawler for a couple of days, there was always something up to 70 sharks following the vessel at all times while trawling.

    When the trawl is lifted and the catch sorted, even if the by-catch is still alive when returned to the water, the sharks soon fix that little issue. They eat whatever hits the water, tin cans even.

    It’s a scandal. The beam trawlers that do the inshore waters do even more damage. Some rivers do not have fish in them anymore as the bottom has been damaged so much that spawn cannot survive & young fish die almost immediately.

    There is often better than a thee to one ratio of by-catch to prawns.

    I’ve no problem with fish farming to supply our needs. The methods of wild catch though??????????????? As Tone would say, “No, No, No!

  23. castle @ 1994

    …the only legislation he managed to stop was the one to stop the boats.

    Now that is a wonderfully succinct statement of his achievements for the year. I hope the govt gets onto something like this. It has the ability to cut through.

  24. The shepherds watched their flocks of sheep by night. Can’t let the nutter-truckers get away when they took so much rounding up, and they need guiding everywhere. If left alone they just stand around bleating or run around in circles.

  27. Carp. I’ve banged on about this before, but our rivers are full of the buggers. Catch ’em, clear ’em, alive, in clean water for a few days. Kill, gut and smoke. With your favourite herb. Serve with horseradish and a fresh white.

  29. Scorpio,
    I believe that once anything is pulled in must be processed and used. No cherry picking the prawns; sort it, freeze it, sell it, don’t like it, deal with it.

  33. Finny,
    The old bitch just loves the prawn heads. Yum yum. My Mum had a kelpie cross dog, it ate crab and lobster bodies and shells. Some doggies luuurv crustacean.

  35. After his slumber Tony awakened to the sight of Barnaby of Joyce. Hey Tone I have figured out the Frank Insence stuff, it has nothing to do with Simon Crean’s dad, I have solved it.

    It is Boswellia sacra. The Sacred Boswell sap, known to all Qld Nats as the juice of politicus retailicus, here want some?

    Rack off bag of hammers, Tony was not happy.

  36. Puff, the Magic Dragon,

    [Scorpio,
    I believe that once anything is pulled in must be processed and used. No cherry picking the prawns; sort it, freeze it, sell it, don’t like it, deal with it. ]

    I’d like to see that happen up here. Most of the by-catch is treated as the real deal in other places in the world. Squid, octopuses, under-size of numerous species of fish, crabs & scallops.

    Having nice fat sharks is not very smart IMHO when the by-catch has a willing & ready market of new arrivals to the country who treat them as something special & a treat!

  39. The Finnigans,

    I just got two kilos of green bananas this afternoon.

    Do you think that would be a fitting end for them?

    What’s the green stuff? 😉

  41. And it came to pass that through his travels Tony of Manly found nobody he could trust, he asked for meaning and was told platitudes.

    Bugger this he thinks, Im off home. He rolls into the driveway, walks up to the door gets out his key, it does not fit!!!

    Margieeeeeeeee. 😆

  45. If you are somehere and there are a limited amount of prawns on the table and you want your fair chop at them. Have a quick look at who is eating them and then just quietly pick the head off the prawn, put the head up to your mouth and give it a big loud suck. Most times the others stop eating the prawns immediately. More for you.

  46. When we kill a beast for protein, it’s criminal IMHO to just pick the good bits. Works with prawns; the heads add to a sauce. Same with pigs, ox and other beasts. Chooks. Giblets are good.

    Some might not have the stomach for this, but offal is good, in the hands of a good cook.

    Chicken liver pate is a classic. Tripe and onions in a white sauce; liver, bacon, mashed spuds … the list goes on.

    I reckon we should honour the beasts we kill: by using all.

  50. Just to clarify. is it the 8th or 9th of Jan when PB resumes? I seem to recall reading on the blog that it closes down from 25 December until 8 Jan INCLUSIVE. Which, if I am right, means it comes back on line on the 9th.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 41 of 44
1 … 40 41 42 … 44