Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

Newspoll has Labor narrowing the two-party gap from 54-46 a fortnight ago to 53-47, with Labor on 32 per cent of the primary vote (up three), the Coalition on 44 per cent (down one) and the Greens on 12 per cent (down three from an aberrant result last time). On all measures, this is Labor’s strongest and the Coalition’s weakest result since May 27-29. Tony Abbott is up two on disapproval to a new high of 57 per cent, with his approval steady on 34 per cent. Julia Gillard is on 30 per cent and 60 per cent, down one in each case. Abbott leads as preferred prime minister 40-39, narrowing from 39-36 last time.

Also:

• The latest weekly Essential Research poll has Labor up a point to 35 per cent, the Coalition down one to 46 per cent and the Greens down one to 9 per cent. Two-party preferred has also edged a point in Labor’s favour, from 55-45 to 54-46. This is Labor’s best result on two-party since June 14, and on the primary vote since May 16. It exactly replicates Morgan in finding 35 per cent approving of Qantas’s shutdown, but disapproval is 53 per cent rather than 61 per cent. A question on who is to blame substitutes “workers” for “unions” and includes a “both equally” option: the results are 41 per cent management, 20 per cent workers and 31 per cent both. Respondents were also asked whether they approved or disapproved of various parties’ handling of the matter, with pretty much equally bad results for the government, opposition, management, workers (although here the “strongly disapprove” rating was relatively low), Alan Joyce and “union leaders”. Julia Gillard and the government recorded 30 per cent approval and 59 per cent disapproval, against 27 per cent and 45 per cent for Tony Abbott and the opposition. The one party that emerged favourably was Fair Work Australia, with 55 per cent and 21 per cent. There are also questions on media usage which point to an increasing use of the internet as a news source, but not to the extent that respondents would be willing to pay for the content (9 per cent say likely, 88 per cent unlikely).

• Roy Morgan has published preferred Labor and Liberal leader figures from last week’s phone poll. Kevin Rudd leads Julia Gillard 31 per cent to 24 per cent, which sounds better for Gillard than recent Galaxy polls (which unlike Morgan didn’t provide the option of other candidates) which had Rudd leading 53-29 in mid-October and 60-26 in early October. However, it’s almost exactly the same as the result of a similarly framed question from Essential Research in May, which had Rudd leading 32-23. Malcolm Turnbull leads Tony Abbott 38-24, compared with 25-22 from Essential in May and 28-24 from Morgan in March.

• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports LNP treasurer Barry O’Sullivan is “being mooted as a candidate to replace one of two Queensland senators likely to leave the upper house ahead of the next federal election”, namely Barnaby Joyce, who is plotting a move to the lower house, and Ron Boswell, who recently confirmed to The Australian that he is considering retiring. This emerged before yesterday’s reports from Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail that O’Sullivan “allegedly held a bet at the last federal election where the winner was promised a trip to Bali with two virgins”, and that he “boasted to colleagues about calling one of Queensland’s top cops during an investigation into financial irregularities within the party”. O’Sullivan has also made headlines recently over his robust handling of a recalcitrant state election candidate and involvement in procuring “dirt files” on Labor identities.

• Phillip Hudson of the Herald-Sun reports the Greens will run an “open” how-to-vote card in Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne, rather than direct preferences to Labor. But given the certainty that the Greens will make it to the final count in this electorate, the destination of their preferences is neither here nor there. Antony Green further dissects the limited impact of Greens preference recommendations.

• Heath Aston of the Sun-Herald reports that the Greens’ Senate preselection in NSW looms as a turf war between Bob Brown and Lee Rhiannon, who are respectively said to support state upper house MPs John Kaye and Jeremy Buckingham.

• An opinion piece by William A. Galston in the New York Times cites the Australian example in advocating compulsory voting to redress America’s “intensely polarized politics”, which he says “impedes governance and exacerbates mistrust”. If the recent tenor of political debate in Australia might cause one to look askance at such an observation, it should be noted that American academic Shanto Iyengar observed after a recent trip to our shores that “Australian political discourse appears relatively elevated, at least by American standards”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,989 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  3. I don’t want to be the first to comment, but there you go.

    I hope Evan14 is up for it because there is a less than flattering article about his hero sticking up for freedom. Evan, do you really want MT to be your hero?

    [A US grand jury in Virginia has been examining evidence and subpoenaing witnesses this year, with the possible aim of charging Assange under the century-old Espionage Act, which can carry the death penalty.

    The letter from Ms Peirce was delivered to Mr Rudd by Liberal MP Malcolm Turnbull on September 22.
    Despite assurances from Mr Rudd that he would ensure it was dealt with, it appears the matter was forwarded to the foreign affairs department and promptly forgotten.

    It was only when The Age approached the foreign affairs department on October 25 that they revisited]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/national/wikileaks-founder-abandoned-by-government-20111107-1n3wj.html#ixzz1d1atrnWJ

  4. This is good news I think the lesson to learn is that when the PM looks good the ALP does better. It isn’t a good look when it is chasing Western Sydney votes at the expense of everyone else but it does look good when she handles things well (ie Qantas) and appears to be guided by some kind of principles. What a shocl.

  5. This is good news I think the lesson to learn is that when the PM looks good the ALP does better. It isn’t a good look when it is chasing Western Sydney votes at the expense of everyone else but it does look good when she handles things well (ie Qantas) and appears to be guided by some kind of principles. What a shocl.

  7. [voter dissatisfaction with the Opposition Leader’s performance at a record high of 57 per cent]

    Record high – he’s toast

  8. From Franklin’s article:

    [Although the chances of a challenge to the Prime Minister’s leadership this year were slim anyway,]

    Wouldn’t have guessed that from all the media hysteria over the year. 😉

  12. Now that Labor’s PV according to Newspoll is in the 30s again, surely that means an end to the boot-strapping commentary of ‘Labor primary vote at [insert Neilsen/Newspoll selected PV in the 20s while ignoring that recorded in Essential].’

  13. Why should we even bother about Julian Assange?
    I myself am rather tired of him and his wikileaks.

    Vogon: in answer to your question in the previous thread, I’m in Bradfield, Paul Fletcher’s electorate(used to be in Berowra, but got redistributed out of there in 2010).

  15. I am a happy camper this eve. The trend is my friend as Tones stares down the S bend of his political career.

    So who will they put up next, Hockey, Mesma, or Morrison??

  16. Some happy news to go to bed on. Maybe these numbers are not yet quite beautiful, but they look good compared to their recent ugly step-sisters.

    Night all. I wonder if anyone will interview Tony Abbott tomorrow?

  19. Can Abbott go positive? His leadership up until now has been defined by blanket opposition to almost everything this government proposes. If you’re a creature of Alan Jones and Ray Hadley and so beholden to them and their talkback radio audience, that limits your options politically.

  21. [Although the chances of a challenge to the Prime Minister’s leadership this year were slim anyway,]

    Hilarious! I thought it was only Liberals and Evan/Thornleigh who were adamant that a challenge to the PM’s leadership was imminent. Before the end of the year even.

    Amazing stuff.

  22. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/julia-gillard-lifts-labor-off-floor-in-latest-newspoll/story-fn59niix-1226188213141

    Julia Gillard lifts Labor off floor in latest Newspoll

    [The poll found Mr Abbott’s 57 per cent dissatisfaction rating was two points higher than his previous high in August and his worst result as Opposition Leader.

    With 34 per cent of respondents satisfied with Mr Abbott’s performance, his net dissatisfaction rate stood at 23 points, also a record under his leadership.

    Thirty per cent of respondents were satisfied with Ms Gillard’s performance with 60 per cent dissatisfied, representing a net dissatisfaction rate of 30 per cent.

    But this figure was down from 45 per cent early in September.

    Ms Gillard also made gains as preferred prime minister, winning the support of 39 per cent of respondents (up three percentage points) to Mr Abbott’s 40 per cent (down a point). Twenty-one per cent expressed no preference.

    But her effort in closing to within one point of Mr Abbott almost wiped out a nine-percentage-point lead the Opposition Leader held early in September of 43 per cent to 34 per cent]

  23. [Not yet he isn’t, Carbon Pricing and MRRT still go yet.]

    The worst of both issues has passed. One is about to become L-A-W and the other sees the Libs already spending some of the revenue.

  24. [Scott Morrison would make Abbott look moderate…]

    Morrison does show some nasty racist xenophobic tendencies, although Cory Bernadi makes both Abbott and Morrison look moderate.

  25. evan14
    [I myself am rather tired of him and his wikileaks.]
    And who else should we be “rather tired” of?

    Off your radar?
    Doesn’t matter then.
    Shucks.
    Only a life. What the heck, eh what, old son.

  29. Well now we have an answer. Labor federally is not going to suffer the NSW disease. We’re back in the ball game and the voters are finally getting bored of Abbott.

  30. The economic news from Europe will help the Government too. At least the Government seem to know about things like the G20 and the IMF, unlike the Liberals who seem to think they are something you can smoke.

  31. Without wanting to sound triumphant, what is going through Peta Credlin’s mind now? How does the penultimate control freak respond when things start getting out of control?

    We saw with Rudd that he just became an even bigger micro manager, and in the process triggered his own downfall. Will the same fate happen to Credlin?

  33. Now the voters might switch back to listening and now is the time for Labor to go all out selling its story. Keating was spot on btw.

  36. [william

    does your pref allocation throw up the 52:48 figure

    just wondering]

    Actually, if you plug the published figures into the 2010 preferences, you get 53.48-46.52. The best possible result for Labor is 52.795-47.205.

  40. imacca:

    In a way, I hope the Liberals continue with the denial. The longer they remain in denial, the longer they remain unelectable.

    I just hope the recent polls don’t trigger an ‘OMG WTF are we doing’ type moment within the coalition, and they start rebuilding. Long live the divisions in the party, and long live the Loughnane/Credlin vice-like grip on the party structure. And I hope Tone stays leader for at least the next few months.

  43. [26
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, November 8, 2011 at 12:19 am | Permalink

    Scott Morrison would make Abbott look moderate…

    Scott Morrison would make Abbott look like a Prime Minister.]

    He reminds me of the scheming-brother character from The Lion King……smooth tongued yet capable of any betrayal

  44. Newspoll couldn’t continue with the fiction of greens at 15%.

    Labor primary now in line with what Essential and Morgan have been showing for over a month although still on the lower side by a couple of points.

    Agree with most PBers that labor should continue governing and the polls will take care of themselves.

    Abbott has boxed the libs into a corner with his non policy attacks. If the drip feed continues LNP will need to change Abbott early so that an alternative policy agenda can be developed in time but really they will look like real geese if they flip flop and tell us the sky isn’t really falling.

    BTW the next Neilsen will be interesting to see if its still out of whack.

  48. In the above article about credlin..

    [A decade ago, she was using her legal skills as a junior adviser to Communications Minister Richard Alston. Then, after a spell with Racing Victoria, she was pulled into Helen Coonan’s office in 2005 to manage two issues that were important to the Howard government: the sale of Telstra and changes to the media-ownership laws.]

    OMG….

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