The first Newspoll since the NSW election says what you would expect it to say: the Coalition is riding high on 51 per cent of the vote, precisely what it achieved at the March election, with Labor on 22 per cent compared with 25.6 per cent at the election, and the Greens on 14 per cent compared with 10.3 per cent. Barry O’Farrell’s debut net approval score as Premier is plus 29 (53 per cent satisfied, 24 per cent dissatisfied), which was exactly what Bob Carr achieved in his first poll as Premier in 1995. John Robertson’s figures are similar to those recorded by Daniel Andrews in his debut poll in Victoria in July/August (which as you can see above are little changed in today’s result): 27 per cent satisfied and 32 per cent dissatisfied. O’Farrell’s lead as preferred premier is 57 per cent to 13 per cent. His government faces a real world electoral test next weekend with the Clarence by-election, on which I will have more shortly. Antony Green is as always well on top of things.
UPDATE: I tend not to pay attention to the Liberal and Nationals figures, as many voters aren’t aware which party will or won’t be fielding candidates in their electorates. However, Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald may well be correct in relating the Nationals’ weak showing to the coal seam gas issue. The party’s rating is at 6 per cent, which compares with 12.5 per cent at the election and – a better point of comparison – 9 per cent in the final pre-election Newspoll.
A 2% swing to the coalition on TPP on the back of massive landslide augurs badly for Robertson. He has got nothing out of:
(a) the solar scheme capitulation;
(b) Orica stuff up;
(c) pay disputes in essential services.
Sadly, not surprised, due to the continuing media honeymoon Fatty is enjoying, and the invisibility of Robbo.
Luke Foley would be a better choice as Opposition Leader, but they’d have to find him a lower house vacancy first, which right now is impossible.
Clarence by-election doesn’t look too interesting, with no strong Independent running.
Obviously there’ll be a decent swing against the National Party given the blowout at the general election, but from what I gather it doesn’t look like they’re in any danger of losing the seat.
If Labor is still that much on the nose I’d expect the Greens to do very well in Clarence.
Luke Foley will get no help from the Right – he has far too much ability. Labor will be lucky to get 20% in Clarence.
I don’t think this result is surprising and I don’t see how Robertson can be blamed for it. While O’Farrell’s handling of the benefits to ex-Premiers i.e. Kenneally was appalling, the fact remains that ther eare still embarrassing stories coming out about past Labor doings at regular intervals. Barring major scandal I think it could be a year before Robertson has much chance to make any new impact.
Of course, if Labor ever wanted to do any real clean out or reform, the time is NOW!
am i the only one who doesn’t understand the graphic in today’s Australian? can someone explain it to me?
The question is “Are you satisfied with the way Kristina Keneally/Barry O’Farrell is doing his/her job?” but there’s only one column of results – so it’s unclear who it applies to BoF or KK. Please explain?
Patrick, there’s two columns of results: one the last result under Keneally just before the election (May 21-24, 32-60-8), the other the current poll (53-24-23). Perhaps you’re confused by the fact that the tables above it have election rather than poll results in the left column.
Sean Nicholls has not done his homework – the Nats always score below their election results in opinion polls, and the Libs above – it is the Coalition vote that counts and approximates reality. He provides no evidence for his views for the Nats hurting – just conjecture and thin conjecture at that. It is possible that they are hurting but in rural NSW it is an issue that effects the northern inland part of the state – the happy hunting ground of Tony Windsor and relatively thin of people and seats.
It will be in Queensland where the damage to the Nats/ LNP will best be gauged.
thanks BBS.
I was wondering how you would guage accurately naitional votes where they are represented in a minority of seats in a statewide poll
Stories like this one will continue to hurt Labor’s chances of a rebound, and won’t end any time soon:
[Mr Macdonald, who resigned from Parliament last year over an expenses scandal, announced approval of the exploration licence to Doyles Creek Mining, chaired by John Maitland, who had an 11 per cent stake, by media release on Christmas Eve 2008.
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The licence was not put to tender, ignoring departmental advice and sparking accusations that it was a favour for Mr Maitland, a former national secretary of the Construction, Forestry, Mining and Energy Union.
The government argued there was a community benefit as the department specified that Doyles Creek must be a ”training mine” to improve worker safety. In February last year NuCoal Resources bought Doyles Creek Mining and listed on the stock exchange with a market value of $100 million, eventually inflating the value of Mr Maitland’s stake to about $10 million.]
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/former-minister-breached-public-trust-report-finds-20111110-1n9lf.html
I suppose it has helped Mr Maitland climb the “ladder of opportunity”. Does anyone know if Maitland donated the $10 million back to the union?
The government would be better off going with a Commission of Inquiry into MacDonald/Maitland which tends to yield legal sanctions (eg James Hardie directors).
ICAC only tends to get convictions if people give false evidence before it.
[ Mr Macdonald, who resigned from Parliament last year over an expenses scandal, announced approval of the exploration licence to Doyles Creek Mining, chaired by John Maitland, who had an 11 per cent stake, by media release on Christmas Eve 2008.]
I remember talking to people who worked for Primary Industries telling me that Macdonald was a good minister, always on top of his brief.
Bemused,
re GetUp. voted.
A few more appearances by Environment Minister Robyn Parker should erode support for the govt. Every time they wheel her out, she doesn’t disappointment – from a purely comedic perspective. The “logging is good for koalas” line was a classic, and her stand-up routine on Orica was comedy gold.
Looks like the ‘common knowledge’ vibe that the Liberal governments of NSW and Victoria were completely hopeless not showing up in the polling.
Swings away from the ALP since election…
[kakuru
Posted Friday, November 11, 2011 at 6:18 pm | Permalink
A few more appearances by Environment Minister Robyn Parker should erode support for the govt.]
Not while the ALP keeps Mr Robertson. Union hacks from Sussex street backroom aint gonna cut it…
Ms Parker was the choice of the Shooters Party for Environment Minister, and in that respect, she so far wouldn’t have disappointed them LOL
I wonder if it’d be worth putting Nathan Rees back in the leadership? He’s at least making a good fist of being Shadow Police Minister.
Robertson is useless, as I always suspected he would be.
Yet another story on ICAC investigating MacDonald over a different allegation. Sure to help with the Clarence by election and the next polls:
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/icac-to-investigate-claim-that-exminister-took-medich-bribe-20111115-1nhen.html
Surely people in NSW Labor must have known these stories would all come out some day? From my own work alone I know a lot more to come.
ICAC link for Ian MacDonald:
http://www.icac.nsw.gov.au/investigations/current-investigations/article/3978
I’d bet Ian McDonald’s expenses cheque that this won’t be the last NSW State Labor figure to face court:
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/exlabor-mp-charged-with-corruption-20111121-1npy6.html
Reminders like this will drag out to the next election. I don’t like O’Farrell but unless he goes on with more spite like the Kenneally expenses hypocrisy, he has little to fear.