Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

Newspoll has Labor narrowing the two-party gap from 54-46 a fortnight ago to 53-47, with Labor on 32 per cent of the primary vote (up three), the Coalition on 44 per cent (down one) and the Greens on 12 per cent (down three from an aberrant result last time). On all measures, this is Labor’s strongest and the Coalition’s weakest result since May 27-29. Tony Abbott is up two on disapproval to a new high of 57 per cent, with his approval steady on 34 per cent. Julia Gillard is on 30 per cent and 60 per cent, down one in each case. Abbott leads as preferred prime minister 40-39, narrowing from 39-36 last time.

Also:

• The latest weekly Essential Research poll has Labor up a point to 35 per cent, the Coalition down one to 46 per cent and the Greens down one to 9 per cent. Two-party preferred has also edged a point in Labor’s favour, from 55-45 to 54-46. This is Labor’s best result on two-party since June 14, and on the primary vote since May 16. It exactly replicates Morgan in finding 35 per cent approving of Qantas’s shutdown, but disapproval is 53 per cent rather than 61 per cent. A question on who is to blame substitutes “workers” for “unions” and includes a “both equally” option: the results are 41 per cent management, 20 per cent workers and 31 per cent both. Respondents were also asked whether they approved or disapproved of various parties’ handling of the matter, with pretty much equally bad results for the government, opposition, management, workers (although here the “strongly disapprove” rating was relatively low), Alan Joyce and “union leaders”. Julia Gillard and the government recorded 30 per cent approval and 59 per cent disapproval, against 27 per cent and 45 per cent for Tony Abbott and the opposition. The one party that emerged favourably was Fair Work Australia, with 55 per cent and 21 per cent. There are also questions on media usage which point to an increasing use of the internet as a news source, but not to the extent that respondents would be willing to pay for the content (9 per cent say likely, 88 per cent unlikely).

• Roy Morgan has published preferred Labor and Liberal leader figures from last week’s phone poll. Kevin Rudd leads Julia Gillard 31 per cent to 24 per cent, which sounds better for Gillard than recent Galaxy polls (which unlike Morgan didn’t provide the option of other candidates) which had Rudd leading 53-29 in mid-October and 60-26 in early October. However, it’s almost exactly the same as the result of a similarly framed question from Essential Research in May, which had Rudd leading 32-23. Malcolm Turnbull leads Tony Abbott 38-24, compared with 25-22 from Essential in May and 28-24 from Morgan in March.

• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports LNP treasurer Barry O’Sullivan is “being mooted as a candidate to replace one of two Queensland senators likely to leave the upper house ahead of the next federal election”, namely Barnaby Joyce, who is plotting a move to the lower house, and Ron Boswell, who recently confirmed to The Australian that he is considering retiring. This emerged before yesterday’s reports from Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail that O’Sullivan “allegedly held a bet at the last federal election where the winner was promised a trip to Bali with two virgins”, and that he “boasted to colleagues about calling one of Queensland’s top cops during an investigation into financial irregularities within the party”. O’Sullivan has also made headlines recently over his robust handling of a recalcitrant state election candidate and involvement in procuring “dirt files” on Labor identities.

• Phillip Hudson of the Herald-Sun reports the Greens will run an “open” how-to-vote card in Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne, rather than direct preferences to Labor. But given the certainty that the Greens will make it to the final count in this electorate, the destination of their preferences is neither here nor there. Antony Green further dissects the limited impact of Greens preference recommendations.

• Heath Aston of the Sun-Herald reports that the Greens’ Senate preselection in NSW looms as a turf war between Bob Brown and Lee Rhiannon, who are respectively said to support state upper house MPs John Kaye and Jeremy Buckingham.

• An opinion piece by William A. Galston in the New York Times cites the Australian example in advocating compulsory voting to redress America’s “intensely polarized politics”, which he says “impedes governance and exacerbates mistrust”. If the recent tenor of political debate in Australia might cause one to look askance at such an observation, it should be noted that American academic Shanto Iyengar observed after a recent trip to our shores that “Australian political discourse appears relatively elevated, at least by American standards”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,989 thoughts on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. 31
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, November 8, 2011 at 12:23 am | Permalink

    Without wanting to sound triumphant,….

    Feel free, confessions. After a drought any rain is welcome.

  4. http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/superannuation-retirement-bonus-for-working-women/story-e6freuzr-1226188160727

    Bye Bye Tony when the Terror publishes this article, seems to be the top story on line

  5. briefly:

    He is quite simply ghastly. When I got home today there he was in a presser on A-pac bleating away about boats, seemingly oblivious to the fact that the boats issue has died.

    Imagine him as LOTO. His signature issue that the public would associate him with is boats and asylum seekers, and no finesse or gravitas. A train wreck.

  6. Well, PBers.

    2PP 53 LNP/47ALP
    PPM 40% Abbott; 39% Gillard.

    Australia Network tender cancelled: No decision until August 2012

    James Murdoch prepares to face MPs over phone hacking (Thursday GMT)

    News Corp boss is preparing to concede that company should have taken further action over allegations earlier

    The News Corporation boss is to appear before the culture media and sport select committee on Thursday ready to admit that more could have been done between 2007 and 2010 when first insiders and later rival newspapers said the illegal practice was widely deployed.

    Nice start to Senate Passing Carbon Pricing Legislation Day: Tuesday 8 November. 2011!

    Should ensure sweet dreams.

    Good Night, Bludgers.

  8. vanOnselenP Peter van Onselen
    ….and the figures finally hit the streets! Not great for Gillard, but she is coming back. I wonder if Abbott will change in response…

    The question is CAN he change, not WILL he change, surely?

  9. Long live the divisions in the party, and long live the Loughnane/Credlin vice-like grip on the party structure. And I hope Tone stays leader for at least the next few months.

    Yup, if they hold off on the actual re-building they should have started in 2008 until midway through next year then i’ll be happy. The excursion into the policy free, negative born to rule crap they have been on, particularly under Abbott is doing them much damage, now that surprise, surprise, they are starting to get pinned on now that the polling is trending against them.

  11. Thanks mari for posting; like all good stories, they have nice endings:

    Opposition leader Tony Abbott, who has vowed to dump the mining tax but backflipped on a promise to rescind the 3 per cent rise in superannuation contributions, will now have to decide whether to keep the tax cuts as well.

    He already has to fund a $12 billion black hole between 2013 and 2020 to pay for the 3 per cent superannuation increase. The tax cuts will force him to find a further $500 million a year in savings to keep them.

  13. Thornleigh Labor Man
    Posted Tuesday, November 8, 2011 at 12:16 am | Permalink

    Can Abbott go positive? His leadership up until now has been defined by blanket opposition to almost everything this government proposes. If you’re a creature of Alan Jones and Ray Hadley and so beholden to them and their talkback radio audience, that limits your options politically.

    let me repeat the idiot…”If you’re a creature of Alan Jones and Ray Hadley and so beholden to them and their talkback radio audience, that limits your options politically”…
    that is directly from the idol of 2GB the one and only, I who change my story as I change my undies, Evan the Thornleigh Labor Man…are you possessed of any personal pride Evan…do you not know what you say from day to day? Do you get your kicks from being told you are …odd?

  14. The Mr No tag must have bitten in Abbott’s private polling too. I noticed him on ABC the other day, gabbing about something (I can’t recall what). He prefaced his comment by saying wtte “I’m not into saying no just for the sake of it, but blah blah blah….”

    Of course this is exactly what his tactic has been. Now he has a problem of his own making. He has been the Hyperolic No No No. How can he oppose the government without reinforcing his negative accents? He cannot. He’s going to have to to try to position himself by supporting Government policies.

    Today he hopped on board the Mining Tax-funded Superannuation increases. Basically, he said “We would never initiate this. But we won’t undo it.” This is political comedy. Having no policies of his own, he is now going to define both his negative and his positive claims entirely by reference to the Government. This is a pathway to complete incoherence.

  16. george

    Posted Tuesday, November 8, 2011 at 12:41 am | Permalink

    Thanks mari for posting; like all good stories, they have nice endings:

    Opposition leader Tony Abbott, who has vowed to dump the mining tax but backflipped on a promise to rescind the 3 per cent rise in superannuation contributions, will now have to decide whether to keep the tax cuts as well.

    He already has to fund a $12 billion black hole between 2013 and 2020 to pay for the 3 per cent superannuation increase. The tax cuts will force him to find a further $500 million a year in savings to keep them

    I have put a nice little comment in, if it gets posted I know Tony is “on toast”
    Off to bed now very happy

  18. 55
    confessions

    briefly:

    He is quite simply ghastly. When I got home today there he was in a presser on A-pac bleating away about boats, seemingly oblivious to the fact that the boats issue has died.

    Imagine him as LOTO. His signature issue that the public would associate him with is boats and asylum seekers, and no finesse or gravitas. A train wreck.

    He makes my flesh crawl, confessions. He is cynicism incarnate.

  19. Last time Abbott started to look on the nose, the government threw him a life line by announcing the Carbon price. Maybe this time they should announce a return to the original mining tax

  20. It seems momentum is changing and things are looking up for Julia and Labor. It is not just the poll numbers, it is the general tone of the media coverage. Can Tony recover and get his foot back onto Julia’s throat, or will he fall to pieces as the pressure is applied?

    The darkness was breaking too soon, before the date that his Master had set for it: fortune had betrayed him for the moment, and the world had turned against him; victory was slipping from his grasp even as he stretched out his hand to seize it. But his arm was long. He was still in command, wielding great powers. King, Ringwraith, Lord of the Nazgûl, he had many weapons. He left the Gate and vanished.

  26. Italian bonds continue to fall….6.54% yield now.

    This will make people think very hard about the political choices here. However much people have been provoked into disliking the Government, the truth is they do have their hands on the instruments of economic policy. Public finances ARE strong. Inflation is coming down and so are interest rates.

    I also think that JG has won a bit of respect through the travails this year. The public now know that she can take the hits. She is not going to wilt when things get tough. People need to know this about their Government and especially about the Prime Minister. There are not many people who have the character to hold a minority Government together and fight on hostile policy ground. She has done it. Her whole Cabinet have done it. There has not been one crack of light.

    There is no doubt they can improve their communication. But you cannot fault them for guts. Not at all. This will count more and more as time goes on.

  27. I’d love to see some billboards put up. .very simple.. just a picture of Abbott.

    And the words..

    NO… NO.. NO. NO..

    Cud, a picture of Tony Abbott against a backdrop of NBN or renewable energy,etc, etc, and the words “Tony Abbott says No”

  28. Well, there you have it – 53/47 TPP to the Coalition is definitively in line with the other polling, all trending back towards the Government over the last month. A ‘narrowing’ in any man’s language except Dennis Shanahan’s. While this is still an overall difficult position from which to win an election in 2013, it is nowhere near as dire as was the case even a month ago, and represents the ALP within striking distance of the Coalition and well within the typical approval zone for Government’s mid term.

    Suck eggs, Abbott; the relentless campaign of fear mongering and lies has amounted to nothing, with the Australian people finally overloading on doom and gloom, and switching off the message and the messenger.

    I think it was Spiro Agnew in another context, but his description of the gutter press also matches the Abbott Coalition to a tee – the nattering nabobs of negativism.

    I got the 53% to 47% TPP right in my predictions last night, but just missed the PPM results where I thought that Julia Gillard would move back in front, but she missed out by a single point at 40% to 39%, with a whopping 21% unable or unwilling to give a preference.

    This result will silence the backbench grumbling on the Government side, but Abbott’s departure for an overseas conservative part junket seems ill-timed to say the least, with Andrew Robb on the warpath, and many other Coalition members whinging and whining about the constant populist policy changes being made on the run.

    Stiff cheddar – they voted for him!

  29. 73
    cud chewer

    briefly,

    I’d love to see some billboards put up. .very simple.. just a picture of Abbott.

    And the words..

    NO… NO.. NO. NO..

    Or…..

    “Errrr, no……ahhhh, no……now,no……ummm, no”

  39. 83
    cud chewer
    Posted Tuesday, November 8, 2011 at 1:05 am | Permalink

    I like my version.. a simple no.. no.. no..

    Its both what he says and what we should say to him.

    🙂

  41. [86
    vitalise
    Posted Tuesday, November 8, 2011 at 1:06 am | Permalink

    Great gallery of the PM over in Afghanistan…

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/photo-gallery/gallery-e6frf94x-1226187358141?page=1

    Along with a positive article over at the Herald Sun. Strange times.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/pm-braves-rocket-attacks-to-visit-troops-in-afghanistan/story-fn7x8me2-1226188167639%5D

    And a contrast to the images of Abbott in Afghanistan last year…..when he nearly didn’t go because of the tory party conference and then trying to get himself in an action-man pose…..he is such a weed

  44. george …evan needs to be told we are not as stupid as he is and are awake to the rubbish he writes here…a history of Evan in brief…one time I am a Labor man forever…. oh sorry I am if Rudd is PM..oh sorry…I hate Julia Gillard…oh sorry she will not be there long Kevin will return…oh sorry we can wait till Kevin has enough support it will happen…oh sorry I support Julia…oh sorry Kevin is finished…oh sorry hate Julia we need Kevin to fix everything..oh sorry Kevin is waiting to move..oh sorry Kevin is waiting to move…oh sorry Julia is great…oh sorry no Kevin is great..oh sorry I dont know what the fek I AM SORRY ABOUT…I’ll listen to 2GB to get a fix..that Evan is how absurd you appear, go and grow cabbages, you are not suited to political comment

  46. anyways

    going to bed happy

    btw, eldest son home tomorrow for three weeks (Malaysian Airlines)

    Says would never fly Qantas because of cost!

    And has a peculiar attitude towards the AJ lockout/grounding

    am looking forward to putting his head in the right direction after jetlag duties.

    Cheers

  48. If the Libs lose another couple of points from their PV, they will be back to level-pegging. And if JG eases back in front on the PPM – a likely development – then the odds will move clearly against the opposition. They will have fired all their artillery and got exactly nowhere….what a bunch of empty-heads they are

  50. gus

    well maybe I could at least be a fly on the wall of the veil of helium!

    tres esoteric that.

    Nighty night.

    Big smiles all round here.

    Sweet dreams

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