The Australian brings results of a Newspoll survey conducted from Tuesday to Saturday in Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott’s regional NSW seats of New England and Lyne. The polls targeted about 500 voters each, producing margins of error of a little under 4.5 per cent. As expected, the results indicate a plunge in support for the incumbents since the election and their subsequent decision to back a Labor minority government. In New England, the poll has Tony Windsor at 33 per cent compared with 61.9 per cent at the election, with the Nationals at 41 per cent compared with 25.2 per cent. In Lyne, Rob Oakeshott’s primary vote is at 26 per cent compared with 47.1 per cent at the 2010 election, and the Nationals are at 47 per cent compared with 34.4 per cent.
Determining two-candidate preferred results for individual electorates in circumstances so radically different from the previous election is problematic, and Newspoll has done the best that could be done under the circumstances by publishing both previous-election and respondent-allocated measures. In New England, the previous election measure has Windsor and the Nationals tied at 50-50. Unfortunately we do not have a full set of primary vote figures at this stage, but it would seem to me from the two-candidate result that the “others” vote (excluding Windsor, Nationals, Labor and Greens) must be in the mid-teens. UPDATE: Full tables here courtesy of GhostWhoVotes – “others” is at 14 per cent in Lyne and 13 per cent in New England. At the 2010 election it was only 1.2 per cent, that being the combined total for One Nation and the Citizens Electoral Council. To apply these parties’ preference distribution to such a large chunk of the vote is obviously imprecise at best. The respondent-allocated preference measure has Windsor trailing 53-47, but this has problems of its own – in particular it requires respondents to make up their own mind, when many will in fact follow how-to-vote cards.
In Lyne, Rob Oakeshott trails 62-38 on respondent-allocated preferences and 55-45 on the previous election results. Similarly to the New England poll, the latter figure appears to have been obtained by amplifying a mid-teens “others” vote through the 2010 preference distribution of one independent who polled 0.7 per cent. While this is by any measure a depressing set of figures for Oakeshott, it is a good deal better for him than a ReachTel automated phone poll conducted in August, which had the Nationals leading 55 per cent to 15 per cent on the primary vote. That poll was rightly criticised at the time for asking about the carbon tax and pokies reform before getting to voting intention. It may also raise doubts about the precision of automated phone polling, which in this country at least has a patchy record (though it seems to be a different story in the United States).
Another difficulty with polls for these two seats is that it is not yet clear which candidates the Nationals will be running, which can have a very significant bearing on regional seats especially. After initially stating he wasn’t interested, the party’s state leader Andrew Stoner has recently said he would “never say never” to the prospect of running in Lyne, with earlier reports suggesting he was being “courted” to make such a move with a view to replacing Warren Truss as federal leader. This was said to be partly motivated by a desire to block a similar move by Barnaby Joyce, who has declared his interest in New England. However, Tony Abbott has said the candidate in Lyne from 2010, Port Macquarie medical specialist David Gillespie, would get “wholehearted support” if he wanted to run again. According to a flattering profile of Abbott by Tom Dusevic in The Weekend Australian, Gillespie is a “boyhood friend” of Abbott’s.
Newspoll also sought approval ratings for the two independents and gauged opinion on their decisions to support the Labor minority government and the carbon tax legislation. This provided one heartening result for Tony Windsor, who retains the approval of 50 per cent of his constituents with 44 per cent disapproving (UPDATE: Sorry, got that the wrong way around). Rob Oakeshott’s respective ratings are 38 per cent and 54 per cent. Voters in Lyne were the more hostile to their member’s support for the Labor government: 32 per cent were supportive and 61 opposed, against 36 per cent and 54 per cent in New England. The results on the carbon tax seem to have been effectively identical, with respective opposition of 72 per cent and 71 per cent. Only 22 per cent of respondents in Lyne were supportive; The Australian’s article neglects to provide a figure for New England, but it can be presumed to have been very similar.
UPDATE: The weekly Essential Research has the two-party preferred steady at 55-45, although Labor is off a point on the primary to 32 per cent with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 48 per cent and 11 per cent respectively. My favourite of the supplementary questions, as it was at my suggestion, gauges current opinion of major reforms of the past few decades, which gives a resounding thumbs-up to compulsory superannuation and Medicare, strong support to floating the dollar and free trade agreements, a fairly modest majority in favour of the GST. Privatisations, however, are opposed in retrospect as well as prospect, although reversing those already conducted has only bare majority support. For some reason though, more support regulating the dollar than thought it was a bad idea in the first place, and a big majority favour increasing trade protection. Other questions relate to a republic (41 per cent for, 33 per cent against), the Commonwealth (47 per cent believe membership of benefit) and succession to the throne (61 per cent believe it should be gender-neutral) and who is to blame for the Qantas dispute (management by and large).
Charlton – thanks
What is your source of the 46% ownership figure ?
I believe it is more like 12% ownership of company stock, however because it is *voting* rights stock, he has about 40% in terms of votes and has been able to stacked the board with his toads.
This is a huge source of friction amongst shareholders in itself, particularly amongst institutional investors as are a whole string of poor governance, poor investment and other poor decisions.
The looming ankle taps for murdoch are if the currently long list of legal problems are found to be within US jurisdiction which may well raise questions if he is a *fit and proper* person to hold media licenses etc in the UK and elsewhere.
The other big ankle tap is his age.
I hope his lives a long life though and sees his corrupt empire in ashes at his feet.
BH(248) No William hasn’t as yet, possibly he did while I was having the computer withdrawal I would so like to speak to you, PLEASE WILLIAM if you are around.
LynchPin(249) I have been to Minnie Water, a fair while ago when my in laws lived in Grafton, it was a great fishing spot. I live south of Coffs Harbour
I saw the post re 4 Corners tonight with Sarah Ferguson on AS. Isn’t she Tony Jones’ wife?
William – could you give mari my email address please.
The PM has written a column for The West about the forthcoming CHOGM meeting.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/opinion/post/-/blog/theburningissue/post/1891/comment/1
Have just spent one hour listening to ABC NewsRadio. In that time not one mention of the Federal Opposition or Abbott. Often it’s been found that when the Opposition make themselves scarce from the media, it’s because their polling has taken a hit. On this afternoon’s experience I’m making a prediction for the next Newspoll: Coalition down 2 points on the two-party preferred. 🙂
leone @ 229
[I live in Lyne and got the phone call from Newspoll for this, but I couldn’t respond. They wanted to talk to a male aged between 19 and 34. I’m female and much older. If I had been given a chance I’d have told them I strongly support Rob Oakeshott, strongly support a carbon price and will vote for Rob if he runs in the next election. Sadly I didn’t fit the pollsters demographics so my opinion apparently doesn’t count.]
It is not that your opinion does not count, but more likely that the pollsters have to ensure that they talk to a representative group of voters to ensure the validity of the results, so they run a ‘quota’ by age and gender that must be achieved. If the sample sizes were 500 per electorate (as has been reported) then they’d have to talk to about 252 females and 248 males to make the sample match the real world, and a similar quota would be applied to the various age brackets over the age of 18 years.
Probably when they spoke to you they has already interviewed enough people in your age and gender category, so you were considered an ‘over quota’ respondent and not included. If pollsters only ever talked to whoever answered the phone, the sample would always be disproportionately skewed to older females, and thus unrepresentative.
[Often it’s been found that when the Opposition make themselves scarce from the media, it’s because their polling has taken a hit. On this afternoon’s experience I’m making a prediction for the next Newspoll: Coalition down 2 points on the two-party preferred.]
One can only hope! 😆
V @ 234
That climate study is probably the most important reported this year.
The report of the stuy has been made public, along with all the monstrous amount of data, prior to the report being submitted for peer-reviewed publication in order that the genuine sceptics can have a tilt at it.
If anyone was wondering why Denialists are doing so well in Australia, this study has been virtually unreported in the MSM. OTOH, we have had hundreds of column inches on a curtsy, lack thereof.
The MSM certainly works moderately hard at earning our contempt.
charlton – I don’t know much about his personal life but I’ve read many of his newspaper articles over the years and have rarely read one mentioning Labor that could be called balanced.
An interesting article by Andrew Crook, in Crikey today, citing 2004 comments made by An drew Bolt against pokies.
[“They are evil, mindless, addictive and without virtue. They are poker machines and Victoria should switch them off. I LOATHE our pokies. I wish the Kirner Government had never let these foul machines loose on our communities, to pick the pockets of the poor, rob their children and tempt the weak to crime.”]
There’s more like that and yet in 2011 Bolt has suddenly decided that his boss (Singleton), who profits from pokies is doing the right thing by opposing any changes.
The intertube thingy must be embarrassing to ‘principled’ people like Bolt.
Sorry, forgot the Crikey link to the Bolt story
http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/10/24/bolts-fear-and-loathing-of-the-pokies-of-course/#comments
BH check your email
Dave the 46% I mentioned was from memory and could be 40%. In any case it means Murdoch has sufficient votes to make his board position about as sound as you can make it. When it comes to the structure of boards then it’s the voting shares that count. My post was in the context of Murdoch being forced to retire which is unlikley while he has a mind to retain his position and influence.
Boerwar
I would say the msm got my absolute contempt sometime ago.
Jay Weatherill is not wasting any time.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-10-24/icac-weatherill-premier/3597772
Mesma being as attrocious as usual on Agenda.
Reckons Gilard should apologise to Malaysia for embroiling it in a policy that hadn’t been tested in law.
To me this raises an interesting methodological question – the polling companies try to fit their respondents to basic demographic profiles to ensure a representative sample, but to do this properly they would have to do it for the specific seats covered by the poll.
For national polls, that’s fine, but for these single seat polls are the companies likely to simply use the national demographic profile, or do they go the extra mile and actually use the profile from the seat they’re polling.
This would become particularly relevant for seachange seats etc where there is probably a distinct bias in the seat’s population towards middle age and retirement age.
Mungo McCallum. Abbott ready to lead, but what then?
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3597206.html
[For national polls, that’s fine, but for these single seat polls are the companies likely to simply use the national demographic profile, or do they go the extra mile and actually use the profile from the seat they’re polling.]
I would be quite astonished if not the latter. Data at electorate level is easily obtainable from the ABS.
BH @ 261:
[charlton – I don’t know much about his personal life but I’ve read many of his newspaper articles over the years and have rarely read one mentioning Labor that could be called balanced.]
Fair enough.
I think that one’s personal life should be off-limits, unless a prominent person advocates a line which is substantially at odds with how they lead their life.
I do however have a inkling that Ross Fitzgerald did have a problem with the booze, but overcame it. If he did, he should be applauded but should also be called out for his lack of balance.
Reformed alcoholics are in my view on par with the God mob (no offence meant to ‘recovering’ alcoholics and those who believe in a Higher being).
This is from the Sarah Ferguson interview with Fran Kelly this morning promoting 4 Corners
[“you imagine a detention centre in one of the far corners of Australia, hot, isolated raw environments with 1400 men and this is a subject that people don’t like to talk about but there is sexual abuse clearly going on inside those detention centres. That boy I was talking about just a moment ago, thats what he’s most scared of, its all adult men and its the abuse thats going to take place from those adult men.”]
If this is the case it raises many questions of why the police aren’t involved. Coincidently I heard on the news this morning that federal police were on their way to Christmas Island to investigate claims of sexual abuse made by a recent arrival; the incident happened during the voyage according to reports.
I was perturbed that Ferguson seemed to imply that it was the poor conditions that led to the abuse, that the detention centres made the abusers what they are.
I hope the programme tonight investigates how many of the longer term detainees have been found not to be refugees. I was surprised last week to hear Bob Brown say in very strong terms that those found not to be refugees should be “sent back”. The problem seems to be there is nowhere to send them. Chris Bowen has said in the past that many of the “troublemakers” have been refused refugee status and have nothing to lose, are the sexual abusers in this category or are they awaiting a decision and their criminal activity going unpunished?
Thanks William, I guess that answers my question!
[Ed Husic
@edhusicMP
Know how many of the Coalition’s 19 broadband plans were referred to the Productivity Commission for “cost/benefit” analysis? Not one. #nbn]
Murdoch is under huge pressure to put more genuinely independent directors on the board and that is not going away. Neither are the other serious issues he and his company have.
In short his days are numbered, as are everyones, but his are cetainly drawing to an end one way or another.
To say his *his board position is as sound as you can make it* is just not accurate in my opinion.
hairy nose
Sarah Ferguson has always been a straight reporter. Hopefully the reportage on detention centres will be likewise
[Mungo McCallum. Abbott ready to lead, but what then?
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3597206.html%5D
Thanks. I think this part is interesting though:
[Assuming that Labor fails to make a sustained comeback in the opinion polls – a prediction that looks safe enough for the moment – Abbott will be untouchable until the next election. ]
It assumes that Abbott can freely continue his style for the next two years, and that nothing Labor does will work against it. Or that nobody will get tired of his style and want something new. Gotta love the power of TEH POLLS.
BH – 248 – I’m up the northern end of Lyne – Port Macquarie.
Hi William,
I suspect that seat polls are matched for local demographics and also for postcode – in many seats this may not be a big issue but would be in Lyne and New England – the demographic information is often shown but I have never seen the postcode information.
[It’s no accident that at the same time the Coalition is extending its lead over Labor as the preferred economic manager. Abbott and Hockey are defying many of their critics. Hockey in particular has stepped up to the plate and is strongly delivering as Australia’s alternative treasurer.]
So hope is still held for the converting Shit to Bullion scheme to be successful then!
It’s still going to be grim. I know Chris Bowen has been doing what he has been able to in terms of moving people from detention to the community programs etc, but the immigration detention system has obviously been dysfunctional for a long time, and this government has failed to manage it properly.
In part, I’m sure, that was due to the politicians crossing their fingers and hoping they could catch a break on the arrivals issue, but that really isn’t an excuse. Insufficient resources, insufficiently trained staff, Serco sitting in the middle of it all like a toxic spider, the immigration department itself with its own toxic culture leftover from the bad old days. It’s all just bad.
Maybe the change of focus to onshore processing will force the government’s hand to fix the long term detention issue – speed up processing times greatly for those on the so-called ‘positive path’. I’m not sure what they can do about those who are in the process of being rejected except to relieve the overcrowding pressures and mismanagement of the facilities…
(And I reiterate that I think it’s a shame the Malaysia Solution has been knocked on the head, however that should always have been a separate issue to adequately managing the existing detention network).
Jackol
[(And I reiterate that I think it’s a shame the Malaysia Solution has been knocked on the head, however that should always have been a separate issue to adequately managing the existing detention network).]
I heartily agree with you on both these points
Mesma is being ridiculous.
Malaysia is very willing to continue to be involved and has not been “insulted”.
But those who want the govt to be seen as “incompetent” will lap it up.
I don’t think this Bill Gates/JG editorial has been linked on here yet: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/a-crippling-disease-that-is-down-but-not-out-20111023-1meen.html
What “plate” is it that Joe has stepped up to, I hear you say?
He may be talking about the thirds queue at the parliamentary dining room deserts counter.
Dave given Murdoch’s age his days are certainly numbered however I expect he will retain a fair amount of say over when he retires. I do agree that News should have a better representation of truely independent directors and that is probably an issue government should address when considering media issues.
2
To be fair the rule actually says that you can`t say things like “Frist!”.
lance boyle @ 286:
[What “plate” is it that Joe has stepped up to, I hear you say?
He may be talking about the thirds queue at the parliamentary dining room deserts counter.]
Care to speak in terms intelligible.
Couched in dfferent terms, I don’t have a clue what you’re going on about.
cuppa I’ll raise your 2 to 3 . If the govt gets another few points I wonder what spin the media and libs will put on it, I’m guessing it will be ,on this result the gov will be wiped out,without a mention of any improvement .
He may have to decide to *retire* sooner rather than latter, without retaining any power in *retirement*.
THE UK stuff is not going away just because they have made payouts.
His former employees now facing charges and being abandoned by murdoch could really spill the beans, possibly enmeshing James or even Rupert himself. The cash payments have attracted the attention of US law enforcement which is potentially a big deal and there may well be further action on a number of fronts in the UK including possibly the UK Parliament.
If it all becomes too much, Rupert may well be shown the door.
As I said above, it is also a seething issue with institutional investors, pension funds etc who are also seething about the company’s various ongoing cockups.
As I said James could be the *casualty* but Ruperts position is far from *sound*.
The British public and political are never going let this mob off lightly, but legal action from the US is the one they really fear.
He has made enough enemies to last a dozen lifetimes and the bill will squared up somewhere along the line.
I would guess that a significant proportion of the other primary in New England and Lyne are people who voted for the current Independents last time but are unhappy about their support for the ALP and so are expressing support for generic independents who in their mind would not be backing the ALP. The extent to which they come back to the incumbents in 2013 depends on various factors including the number of non-incumbent independents running in those seats.
Is Katter`s party running outside Qld in 2013?
Tom the first and best @ 292:
[Is Katter`s party running outside Qld in 2013?]
I don’t think so.
Only far north of the Tweed would Mad Bob have appeal, rather like Joh’s 1987 ‘push for Canberra.’
MickT,
I hope you’re proven right on your prediction of a 3-point drop for the Coalition. The silence from them on #TheirABC this afternoon has been eerie.
Here’s a brand new opportunity to stop the Carbon Legislation. Section 59 of the Constituton!
http://catallaxyfiles.com/2011/10/24/section-59-of-the-constitution/
Boo GG we’ve done section 59 here already; even if the wingnuts are grasping at every straw they can doesn’t mean we should humour them by perpetuating their lunacy.
[I suspect that seat polls are matched for local demographics and also for postcode …]
How is this done via a phone number? Remember numbers are no longer exchange specific. Did Newspoll ask if the person was in the electorate at all?
Tom, not Katter for PM too much of a reminder of 1986, heaven help us all. I think you need the heavy dose of sunshine you get in NQ before you join the Katter Party.
Didn’t the Australia Act of 1987 make 59 a dead section
If 4Corners are doing an AS thing tonight it means we’ll be swamped tomorrow with Morrison and SHY trying to outdo each other in their attempts to get their faces and spin into the media cycle.
🙁