Newspoll: New England and Lyne

The Australian brings results of a Newspoll survey conducted from Tuesday to Saturday in Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott’s regional NSW seats of New England and Lyne. The polls targeted about 500 voters each, producing margins of error of a little under 4.5 per cent. As expected, the results indicate a plunge in support for the incumbents since the election and their subsequent decision to back a Labor minority government. In New England, the poll has Tony Windsor at 33 per cent compared with 61.9 per cent at the election, with the Nationals at 41 per cent compared with 25.2 per cent. In Lyne, Rob Oakeshott’s primary vote is at 26 per cent compared with 47.1 per cent at the 2010 election, and the Nationals are at 47 per cent compared with 34.4 per cent.

Determining two-candidate preferred results for individual electorates in circumstances so radically different from the previous election is problematic, and Newspoll has done the best that could be done under the circumstances by publishing both previous-election and respondent-allocated measures. In New England, the previous election measure has Windsor and the Nationals tied at 50-50. Unfortunately we do not have a full set of primary vote figures at this stage, but it would seem to me from the two-candidate result that the “others” vote (excluding Windsor, Nationals, Labor and Greens) must be in the mid-teens. UPDATE: Full tables here courtesy of GhostWhoVotes – “others” is at 14 per cent in Lyne and 13 per cent in New England. At the 2010 election it was only 1.2 per cent, that being the combined total for One Nation and the Citizens Electoral Council. To apply these parties’ preference distribution to such a large chunk of the vote is obviously imprecise at best. The respondent-allocated preference measure has Windsor trailing 53-47, but this has problems of its own – in particular it requires respondents to make up their own mind, when many will in fact follow how-to-vote cards.

In Lyne, Rob Oakeshott trails 62-38 on respondent-allocated preferences and 55-45 on the previous election results. Similarly to the New England poll, the latter figure appears to have been obtained by amplifying a mid-teens “others” vote through the 2010 preference distribution of one independent who polled 0.7 per cent. While this is by any measure a depressing set of figures for Oakeshott, it is a good deal better for him than a ReachTel automated phone poll conducted in August, which had the Nationals leading 55 per cent to 15 per cent on the primary vote. That poll was rightly criticised at the time for asking about the carbon tax and pokies reform before getting to voting intention. It may also raise doubts about the precision of automated phone polling, which in this country at least has a patchy record (though it seems to be a different story in the United States).

Another difficulty with polls for these two seats is that it is not yet clear which candidates the Nationals will be running, which can have a very significant bearing on regional seats especially. After initially stating he wasn’t interested, the party’s state leader Andrew Stoner has recently said he would “never say never” to the prospect of running in Lyne, with earlier reports suggesting he was being “courted” to make such a move with a view to replacing Warren Truss as federal leader. This was said to be partly motivated by a desire to block a similar move by Barnaby Joyce, who has declared his interest in New England. However, Tony Abbott has said the candidate in Lyne from 2010, Port Macquarie medical specialist David Gillespie, would get “wholehearted support” if he wanted to run again. According to a flattering profile of Abbott by Tom Dusevic in The Weekend Australian, Gillespie is a “boyhood friend” of Abbott’s.

Newspoll also sought approval ratings for the two independents and gauged opinion on their decisions to support the Labor minority government and the carbon tax legislation. This provided one heartening result for Tony Windsor, who retains the approval of 50 per cent of his constituents with 44 per cent disapproving (UPDATE: Sorry, got that the wrong way around). Rob Oakeshott’s respective ratings are 38 per cent and 54 per cent. Voters in Lyne were the more hostile to their member’s support for the Labor government: 32 per cent were supportive and 61 opposed, against 36 per cent and 54 per cent in New England. The results on the carbon tax seem to have been effectively identical, with respective opposition of 72 per cent and 71 per cent. Only 22 per cent of respondents in Lyne were supportive; The Australian’s article neglects to provide a figure for New England, but it can be presumed to have been very similar.

UPDATE: The weekly Essential Research has the two-party preferred steady at 55-45, although Labor is off a point on the primary to 32 per cent with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 48 per cent and 11 per cent respectively. My favourite of the supplementary questions, as it was at my suggestion, gauges current opinion of major reforms of the past few decades, which gives a resounding thumbs-up to compulsory superannuation and Medicare, strong support to floating the dollar and free trade agreements, a fairly modest majority in favour of the GST. Privatisations, however, are opposed in retrospect as well as prospect, although reversing those already conducted has only bare majority support. For some reason though, more support regulating the dollar than thought it was a bad idea in the first place, and a big majority favour increasing trade protection. Other questions relate to a republic (41 per cent for, 33 per cent against), the Commonwealth (47 per cent believe membership of benefit) and succession to the throne (61 per cent believe it should be gender-neutral) and who is to blame for the Qantas dispute (management by and large).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

815 comments on “Newspoll: New England and Lyne”

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  1. The OO promises “a new digital experience” with its paywall and new website.

    The paper has been giving the finger to its readers for years now, why should it be any different now? 😉

  2. Centre while Murdoch owns 46% of News then he is pretty safe from forced retirement providing he keeps his bankers happy. The one time his empire was put under real threat was in the early 90’s when the bankers came close to calling in his loans.

  6. [AshGhebranious
    @AshGhebranious
    @chriskkenny LOL who gives a hoot about you or your opinion Chris? Opinions are like arseholes. Everyone has one. You have plenty #auspol]

  7. Gus:

    If you want to understand where Poss is coming from on the ‘Occupy Whatever’, this post probably sums it up, esp:

    [The North Atlantic economies are being beaten down by a strange unorthodox economic paradigm of austerity, one unsupported by any empirics or logic or other wonkery. The paradigm is strongly rooted in the institutions of power. These institutions have powerful gatekeepers – such as the Ivy League or the Public School-Oxbridge nexus that effectively return the same classes and root out concern for the general public. A wonk in the North Atlantic is unheard in these institutions and has to take to the streets just to be heard.

    No such silly paradigm took root here. This of course means many more young people are in work and without the immediate call (or forced free time) to occupy a financial centre. ]

    …

    [In short, Wall Street is occupied by a lot of people desperately trying to do something. The equivalents in Australia are lucky enough to be able to actually go and do something. Australia is not perfect, but we’re not powerless. It is possible to take action, and people are.]

    http://clubtroppo.com.au/2011/10/22/what-if-oz-is-partially-occupied-already/

  8. Ross Fitzgerald making some dubious observations re. Abbott’s & Hockey’s economic credentials:

    [It’s no accident that at the same time the Coalition is extending its lead over Labor as the preferred economic manager. Abbott and Hockey are defying many of their critics. Hockey in particular has stepped up to the plate and is strongly delivering as Australia’s alternative treasurer.]

    What he conveniently avoids mentioning is Labor’s handling of the GFC and the fact that Australia is well placed than almost all other First World economies to counter a second one.

    Full article: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/coalition-lines-up-against-labor-on-the-economy/story-e6frgd0x-1226173332492

    I think Swan’s assessment of the Opposition’s economic credentials is far more credible:

    http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/swan-mocks-hockey-as-giant-tinkerbell-20100208-nmp3.html

    It really is difficult to find a positive Labor article in the Australian. Accordingly I think I should cancel my free three-month digital pass, obtained this morning.

    And then there are the Keatings & the Bramston’s – both promoting their books – who further bag the Party, not to mention 30 pieces of silver Richo.

    In this climate, for Labor to have some 43% support is of itself almost a miracle.

  9. confessions

    I understand where Poss is coming from, but we do have powerful lobby groups right now trying to bully our govt into not adopting policies for the majority. Mining tax, carbon tax, pokies reform and NBN come to mind

  10. In the business world your closest and best friends are those that dream of throwing you overboard with additional lead weight while spending a nice sunny day with you on your yacht.

    They act instantly as soon as your power starts to weaken 🙂

    Imagine your enemies 😆

  11. Looking out my window I see HM Betty Windsor just pulled up in a City Cat and got off at Southbank. Hope she swiped off with the Go Card!

  14. Stuchbery reading Blots hororscope.

    [There comes a time, however, when it’s no longer appropriate to keep quiet and ignore his actions. In the light of the court judgement against him, Bolt, on his blog, has been showing contempt for both the court’s decision against him and the Indigenous peoples of Australia. Worse, he has sneeringly hidden behind the shield of ‘No Comment’ and disabling the ability for anybody to comment.]

    http://mike-stuchbery.com/2011/10/24/bolt-the-doctor/

  17. As a counterbalance to those wonderful economic figures of The Finnigans that get posted time and time again……

    A campaign ‘Australians for Affordable Housing’ has just been launched.

    The group commissioned a study by the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling at the University of Canberra.

    The study – Housing Costs Through the Roof – focused on households with the lowest 40 per cent of incomes, taking family size into account, who spend 30 per cent or more of income on rent or mortgage payments.

    The study shows there are 850,000 Australian households, or more than 10 per cent, who spend so much on rent or mortgage payments they have little left over to cover other bills.

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/households-struggling-to-pay-bills-20111023-1memh.html

  21. victoria:

    That is true, however the motivations underpinning OWS are not analogous to the Australian circumstances.

    Occupy Whatever in Australia just looks very self-indulgent to me.

  22. confessions

    I see the Occupy movement here as supporting the worldwide movement. Ie being a global citizen rather than directed at their cirucmstances in Australia

  23. A couple of the links I provided about the Occupy movement at #191, critique Jericho’s and Possum’s analysis, including:
    [Thus it is a non sequitur to quote statistics showing how much better off Australians are than Americans in terms of inequality or poverty — precisely because the #occupy movement is opposed to a set of power relations that systematically create inequality and poverty. Then again it is worrying that progressive critics are trying to make such a positive case about inequality and poverty here while the top 20 percent own 60 times the wealth of the bottom 20 percent, and when there has been a lot of worrying data released as part of Anti-Poverty Week. What exactly is it they are defending?]
    http://left-flank.blogspot.com/2011/10/occupyoz-captures-mood-but-its-critics.html

  25. victoria:

    The stimulus here in Oz during the GFC prioritised keeping people in work, whereas the US stimulus favoured bank bailouts over propping up those sectors which employ the majority Americans. Naturally people are rightly annoyed with their elected representatives.

    If Australians want to show their support for being a good global citizen, then I don’t see how trying to emulate OWS here achieves that. I can think of many other ways to demonstrate that without having a sit-in in Sydney and Melbourne financial districts.

  26. Just finished watching Al Jazeera news on Bris31. Is there any chance of a national whip the hat around so we can send our entire electronic news media over to them for some work experience?

  28. William 153
    ___________
    That was clear to me on reading the statement Jean referred to…I susoect she needs some attention to her reading skills,William !

  29. I live in Lyne and got the phone call from Newspoll for this, but I couldn’t respond. They wanted to talk to a male aged between 19 and 34. I’m female and much older. If I had been given a chance I’d have told them I strongly support Rob Oakeshott, strongly support a carbon price and will vote for Rob if he runs in the next election. Sadly I didn’t fit the pollsters demographics so my opinion apparently doesn’t count.

  30. lizzie @175

    We can only hope that just for once Tony Jones will strive for “balance”.

    I only ask that you pay attention to who is heckled, booed or cut sort most often.

  31. Harradine scored a telstra office.

    What have curly and moe scored their voters?

    Its Straya. the voters know what works: you elect independents to get a thumping big payback on some vital vote.

    They call it PORK barrelling for a reason. The aggy sector knows what it wants, and its the teat, to suck on.

  32. [Looking out my window I see HM Betty Windsor just pulled up in a City Cat and got off at Southbank. Hope she swiped off with the Go Card!]
    Indeed, let us hope so. The Australian government picks up the cost of visits by foreign heads of state.

  33. Since the beginning of this year I have believed that Oakeshott’s re-election chances are tied to the government. If Labor gets out of its current hole – he is a chance at re-election. In fact I think 55-45 flatters him at the moment.
    The choice of a Nat candidate may also influence this. If Stoner transfers I don’t think he has a chance no matter how well Labor is going. Wendy Machin has also been mentioned and is a strong candidate. Gillespie despite being the best man at Abbott’s wedding is not a politician’s boot-strap and has a glass-jaw which will be interesting as there are a number of people in this town who have grievances against him.

  35. Pegasus 222

    I agree with your concern that Australia shouldn’t ignore the “Occupy” movement by comparing ourselves with America and then saying things are OK. East Timor looks OK compared to the USA on equity grounds (at least all the Timorese are poor). We have done well, and the government has done well, in the circumstances. But the circumstances are bad precisely because a sociopathic 1% have gotten control of most of the western world’s means of production and is running it into the ground while looting it for their short term gain.

    I also agree that housing for the many working people who cannot afford to buy a home is a pressing social issue here, recession or not.

  37. [A couple of the links I provided about the Occupy movement at #191, critique Jericho’s and Possum’s analysis, including:]

    The section you’ve cited completely ignores the point of Grog’s argument.

  38. No change with this week’s Essential is probably not a bad result for the Government at the moment. Each such poll is a sign that peak Abbott has passed, whilst leaving no doubt that the Government is well behind at this stage.

    The interesting thing about this week’s Essential, though, is the insight provided from the “extra” questions about voter attitudes to past Government decisions. A quick read of the results indicates some fundamental inconsistencies in voter attitudes!

    What is consistent, however, is the extraordinarily solid support for two of the great Hawke/Keating initiatives of the 1980s: the reinstatement of Medicare (it is hard to believe now that it was actually dismantled by Fraser/Howard post 1975…) and the introduction of compulsory superannuation. I wonder how the carbon pricing scheme will be perceived in 20 years time?

    But looking at some of the other results, frankly, who would want to be a politician!

  39. I found it strange (?) that questions on govt actions came before how-you-would-vote questions and that the Lab/Coal govts were not specified. So you might, if you were not particularly interested in politics, assume that all the “bad” things were done by Labor.

  40. [Is anyone else surprised by the huge turnout for the Queen in Brisbane today? ]

    It’s not called “Queens” land for nothing! 😉

  41. It would be a shame to see Oakeshott and Windsor not retain their seats at the next election just for committing the heinous crime of actually voting like independents and not giving into bullying. Even if one party gets a clear majority in the House, next Parliament, I sincerely hope they both hang on. They are both good and ethical men.

  42. [Australia shouldn’t ignore the “Occupy” movement by comparing ourselves with America and then saying things are OK.]

    I think that’s a pretty facile summary of the criticisms of the Occupy Whatever mob in Australia, to be honest.

    Occupy Melbourne’s mission statement talks about our democracy being unwell, and our elected representatives no longer representing us. I’d like to know how many of those Occupiers watched Senate Estimates last week. Did they see all the committees discussing issues like employment, housing, community engagement on the MDB reform, the whole day dedicated to inter-agency efforts to improve the socio-economic and health outcomes of indigenous Australians?

    Do those who support Occupy Melbourne think that these issues are contrary to those which concern most Australians? Is this evidence of an unhealthy democracy? Seriously, I have sympathy for the view that our political system is too heavily influenced by lobbyists (in the Federal sphere, voters can at least see who these lobbyists are btw), but some perspective here would be good.

  43. Jolyon Wagg @ 236:

    [Charlton @207

    I think you will find that your free three-month digital pass to the online OO is worth every cent]

    I don’t think I’ll be renewing my subscription, but I’m all for freebies.

  44. [Ross Fitzgerald making some dubious observations re. Abbott’s & Hockey’s economic credentials:]

    charlton – Ross Fitzgerald is a true blue Liberal so I guess Hockey sounds good to him.

    leone – nice to hear your views. Let’s hope they poll you again

  45. Outsider:

    I see you’re around.

    My apologies for my unwarranted comments yesterday.

    William Bowe’s admonition was correct & I probably should’ve been sin-binned.

  46. This is well worth reading: http://newswithnipples.com/2011/10/24/oakes-orthodox-olle/

    Especially this:

    [There will always be enough examples of high-quality journalism to sustain the Walkley Awards. But the bigger problem, as I see it, is the low standard of everyday journalism. The “he said she said but we didn’t bother checking any of their claims because the quip was the most important thing that was said” stuff we read and watch every day. If you want to talk about journalism and democracy, this is the stuff you need to look at, not the Serious Investigations which are written/produced with an eye to an award.]

  47. Leone(229) I live in Cowper(heaven help me) and have once been polled by Newspoll, like you only wanted to speak to a male between(can’t remember)ages if I had been smart I would have said just hold on and deepen my voice??? I have so much time for RO and TW

  48. mari – glad to see your computer’s a goer again. Did William give you my email address?

    leone – which end of Lyne are you in? North, South or in between?

  50. BH @ 244:

    [Ross Fitzgerald making some dubious observations re. Abbott’s & Hockey’s economic credentials:

    charlton – Ross Fitzgerald is a true blue Liberal so I guess Hockey sounds good to him.]

    For a former academic he should in my view at least attempt to be balanced but I guess that’s what you get for being on Mr. Murdoch’s payroll.

    I see some of the books he’s penned are “My name is Ross: an Alcoholic’s Journey” & “Under the Influence of Alcohol in Australia” suggesting he may have had a battle with the booze.

    Do you know whether he’s a recovering alcoholic or just has an academic interest in the subject?

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