Of boats and votes

Nielsen struck a blow for transparency yesterday by releasing comprehensive data for their polling on asylum seekers, featuring detail on the questions and how they were asked, breakdowns by state, location, gender, age and voting intention, and no fewer than eight tables cross-tabulating various results for the eight questions asked. They even went so far as to include the raw numbers they reached after weighting the responses for age, gender and location, not that this particularly tells us much.

The poll also deserves credit for posing thoughtfully crafted questions on a complex and contentious subject. No doubt taking inspiration from Murray Goot and Ian Watson’s recent paper on public opinion and asylum seekers, which noted that results had been heavily influenced by “the way questions are framed, the kinds of questions that precede these questions (and) the range of possible responses the questions allow”, the Nielsen report offered the following:

It is important to note that the results of opinion polls on this issue are more sensitive to the wording of the questions asked than for many other topics. This is because the issues are often emotional for some and complicated for all. Respondent knowledge on this subject is never complete. The task of adequately condensing complex options into fair but meaningful questions is also a difficult one.

The questions in this poll were stripped of their political context as much as possible. For example the ‘sent to another country to be assessed’ option was not offered in the context of deterrence, nor was any human or financial cost alluded to. It was not offered as Labor or Coalition policy (e.g. by calling it the ‘Malaysian solution’ or the ‘Pacific solution’).

The Fairfax papers asserted that the poll showed voters “at odds with both Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott and the perception that attitudes have hardened against asylum seekers”, and certainly the figures point to a more liberal attitude than the tenor of political debate would suggest. However, The Age gilded the lily a little with a graphic showing 60 per cent believed those assessed as genuine refugees should be allowed to stay in Australia permanently. It takes a bit of digging to appreciate that this excludes the 15 per cent who didn’t believe the asylum seekers should be assessed at all, having preferred that they be “sent out to sea”. The number supporting settlement in Australia was nonetheless a very solid 49 per cent, although there remained a combined 44 per cent in favour of the less liberal options of temporary protection visas (29 per cent support) and sending boats back out to sea (15 per cent). The same issue occurs with The Age’s figures for whether boat arrivals should be held in detention (64 per cent) or allowed into the community (32 per cent): putting the aforementioned 15 per cent back in (together with the 4 per cent “other/don’t know“), the results come down to 52 per cent and 26 per cent.

Regarding the treatment of asylum seekers on arrival, the results can be broken down thus:

22% – Allowed to live in the Australian community
12% – Detained in Australia, excluding children
17% – Detained in Australia, including children
4% – Sent to another country, allowed to live in community there
23% – Sent to another country and detained there
4% – Assessed for refugee status, no opinion on detention
15% – No assessment for refugee status: sent back out to sea
4% – Other/don’t know

And on their treatment after being assessed for refugee status:

49% – Settled in Australia
29% – Granted temporary protection visas
2% – Returned to country of origin
15% – No assessment for refugee status: sent back out to sea
5% – Other/don’t know

To those who are ready to junk the orthodox view on this subject, I would offer a few notes of caution. Certainly there was no majority in favour of assessing refugee status in Australia at the time of the Tampa episode, when Nielsen and Morgan polls had between 68 per cent and 77 per cent in favour of turning boats away. It is hardly plausible that so many of these respondents have had changes of heart that only 15 per cent now remain. What it likely shows is how the finer point of public opinion on this issue are shaped by the terms of the debate at the time. The symbolism in August/September 2001 involved boats being either allowed to land or held at bay by the military – only as the Howard government scrambled to effect its “Pacific solution” was the public alerted to the fact that the latter course only constituted half a policy. This may have led to a change in questions posed and answers given in opinion polls, but it doesn’t follow that there was a shift in underlying attitudes.

This leads to a point that occurs to me about the wording of Nielsen’s “sent to another country to be assessed” option: for many respondents, Nauru might not register as “another country” in the sense that Malaysia does, as it is perceived either as a dependency of Australia or too insigificant to qualify as a “country”. This option may accordingly have been interpreted by some as an invitation to sign on for the Malaysia solution. If Nielsen had at least added enough political context to allow for the restoration of the Pacific solution as a response option, the poll may have told a somewhat different story.

UPDATE (22/8): Crikey reports the latest Essential Research has Labor up a point on two-party preferred (to 56-44 from 57-43) and also on the primary vote, to 32 per cent, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 50 per cent and 10 per cent. In other findings, 24 per cent support the health package finalised by government last month against 9 per cent opposed, with the great majority either indifferent (31 per cent said it would have little or no impact) or ignorant (28 per cent said they had heard nothing, 36 per cent little). Forty-seven per cent supported David Cameron’s suggestion that access to Twitter and Facebook be blocked during periods of civil unrest, with support varying as you would expect according to age and social media usage.

UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,550 comments on “Of boats and votes”

Comments Page 3 of 131
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  1. [I too am surprised that the first I heard about Windsor’s bill was on Lateline. I am not on top of this issue at all, but really do wonder what the govt ought do]

    Hold that Media Inquiry! What we have in Australia is self-imposed media censorship of anything they don’t want the nation to know. Nor is it recent.

    The first I experienced (Jan 1980, over the Moscow Olympics & USSR trade boycotts – because the USSR had invaded Afghanistan!) involved Maggie Thatcher ripping strips off Malcolm Fraser and his government over their refusal to join the trade embargo, telling the HoC that Fraser himself sold his wool & grain to USSR … LOVED Maggie for that (full stop!) Came back to Oz days later to not one word about the issue, M’s tirade BUT to Fraser as the Hero of/ Leading the Free World with the Olympic Boycott!

    The second was the plethora of news (reported internationally & very accurate, as Oz discovered c10 March 1983) re Oz’s dire economic situation with drought, collapse of commodity prices, poor economic management by Treasurer Howard, inc tax cuts – A$6 billion budget deficit Oct 82, A$9 billion end of Jan. Luckily we sent/ brought home news, cuttings, whole papers (Zürich, on Swiss loans – Swiss franc then A$2.16-19 according to my travel diary) because no one would have believed us! Oz was doing well! Even in the early hours of 6 March 83, as Fraser, chin trembling, conceded defeat, he said wtte, At least we leave the economy in good order.

    Those who now consult international online newspapers are reading what, not so long ago, didn’t appear even in Fairfax papers. Would we have heard about the UK phone-hacking scandal at all if the Internet did not exist? Did we, a couple of months ago, learn about an Aussie scientific/ astronomic coup? Would the second have been reported on ABC Just-In here had the first not have been reported on blogs – with snarky comments about lack of Oz MSM reportage?

  2. From Der Spiegel…

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,780304,00.html

    [08/16/2011
    Fear of the Executioners
    The Sinister Power of the Rating Agencies

    By Michaela Schiessl, Christoph Schult and Thomas Schulz

    As the debt crisis worsens, governments fear the rating agencies, which have the power of life and death over whole economies. The Big Three helped to cause the 2008 financial crisis and are now accused of worsening the euro zone’s woes. But a look behind the scenes shows that there are few alternatives to the mighty agencies.]

  3. [but after subsequent back-flips, denials etc, I doubt it.

    BTW: What do the farmers want? The rural version of NIMBY – NBMOML – No Blo^dy Mining On MY Land]

    promlem would the farmers want to keep thier options open regarding legislation

    down turn in farming, ” might as well sell the farm then” so when they think about it will they also have ” what if” second thoughts

  4. [abcnews ABC News
    by GrogsGamut
    Greg Combet says carbon tax legislation is to be introduced into Parliament next month bit.ly/r1iW58 ]

  8. briefly

    Houses in Australia are the most overpriced in the western world. There needs to be a correction, which seems to be happening. Should have happened a few years ago

  9. if you can tell me any gov can solve the price of housing lets hear itl

    impossible if you take away stamp duty the state gov, jump up and down,

    one thing if a person buys and expensive house that then become the problem for all of us, if we all sat on our hands bought nothing, watch the price’s tumble.

    i have notice latley in my state that the real estate agents aren’t a plentiful as they where i actually count them every week to see how less there are each week.

    not sure if that s a good or bad thing. but releasing more land well that doesnt help and the cost of development is high.

    so wants you answer

  10. Leroy
    [The Big Three helped to cause the 2008 financial crisis and are now accused of worsening the euro zone’s woes. But a look behind the scenes shows that there are few alternatives to the mighty agencies.]
    Thanks for the link but I don’t agree with the conclusion. Lots of feasible alternatives to the current arrangements were suggested after the GFC broke. Krugman and Quiggan have both been over them again recently.

    The reported cost of setting up an independent altreantive in Europe (300M euro) is peanuts in the scheme of things. S&P’s annual profits exceed that by a factor of almost ten. Of course markets don’t want it, becaue it is a cost they would have to bear. But it needs to happen. Krugman suggested better structures that would be more independent of government.

  11. people say they dont like house prices falling.

    Why so they can buy a smaller one put money in to bank.

    not sure, but if the price of my house falls so does the others down the road.

    so if i want to down size makes no difference.

    so iam for them falling naturally like victoria says should of happened years ago

    the first home owners grant was a nuisance factor as i think the prices went up

  12. [people say they dont like house prices falling.]
    The problem is usually for young people who have just taken out mortgages and rarely own more than 10% of the house value. If the price falls 10% they wind up owing more in debt than the house is worth.

    That is why house price bubbles are painful, and often slow, to correct. A bit of inflation actually helps (memo: Glen Stevens!) because then if house prices are flat and other prices are rising it is effectively correcting the market by the inflation rate, but not harming mortgage holders.

  13. My Say
    [promlem would the farmers want to keep thier options open regarding legislation

    down turn in farming, ” might as well sell the farm then” so when they think about it will they also have ” what if” second thoughts]
    There are a those who have welcomed mining onto their land.
    I’m not anti-mining & recognise the benefits that come from it.
    There comes a time though, when we must protect valuable food producing soil just as we would a forest to protect ancient trees.
    Australia for its size, does not have vast tracts of high grade soils for food production.
    Also, Windsor is correct on the water issue. We must know the risks to our water supply.
    This is about food/water security for future generations.

  16. [108
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, August 17, 2011 at 10:56 am | Permalink

    briefly

    Houses in Australia are the most overpriced in the western world. There needs to be a correction, which seems to be happening. Should have happened a few years ago]

    Couldn’t agree more. This is likely to be one of the factors contributing to the very weak consumer confidence readings, weak credit demand, weak forward indicators in the labour market and – I do not hesitate to suggest – the weak polling by the Government.

    They really have to do better on economic affairs. They must. It is their only hope.

  20. They really have to do better on economic affairs. They must. It is their only hope.

    Yeah- they have to get that mining tax going…

  22. Please feel free to slam me if my interpretation is wrong…But do the results of this poll and the accompanying explanation suggest that if there was some compassionate leadership on Asylum Seekers that the population would follow?

    There seems to be a solid 15 percent against all asylum seekers, but the rest of the sample seem open to persuasion…Is it possible to have an open, and honest debate about the issue?

    I guess I’m being idealistic…

  23. victoria as a copper, he must have been a total failure, I have seen nothing in the mans personality, style, communication, interaction with other people that would make him a respected lawman.

  26. [Please feel free to slam me if my interpretation is wrong…But do the results of this poll and the accompanying explanation suggest that if there was some compassionate leadership on Asylum Seekers that the population would follow?]
    Having just read William’s take on the poll I’m not so sure your interpretation is warranted. There are some words of caution from William I think about assuming anything based on this poll.

  27. Re mining v farming/ urban land: here’s Q Gov (Anna Bligh’s) Monday announcement Miners shut out of urban areas in Qld, Anna Bligh announces

    [All exploratory digging will be banned near urban areas, Premier Anna Bligh announced today, ensuring mining companies keep away from people’s homes.

    Ms Bligh announced miners will be shut out of all areas within two kilometres of residential or identified urban development areas.

    She said the restriction would apply to existing and future exploration permits.

    “Cabinet has resolved that we will legislate that with towns of 1000 people or more, you cannot have an exploration permit within a two-kilometre buffer zone,” Ms Bligh said….

    Specifically, the ban would apply to land within the bounds of the South East Queensland Regional Plan and regional centres including Ipswich, Toowoomba, Beaudesert, Rockhampton, Mackay and St George.]

    And a list of Q Gov Strategic Cropping Land initiatives Strategic Cropping Land: Definitions, Government position, Legislation etc and the below a partial list of aspects URL-linked on that page

    [What is strategic cropping land?
    What is the Queensland Government’s position on protecting strategic cropping land?
    What is the purpose of the Regulatory Assessment Statement?
    What will be the costs associated with implementing the strategic cropping land policy?
    How will the strategic cropping land policy affect the Coal Seam Gas industry?
    What is an “Exceptional Circumstance”?
    What development may be considered to be an “exceptional circumstance” and allowed to proceed on strategic cropping land?
    What is being done about mining developments encroaching on urban/residential boundaries?
    Does the strategic cropping land framework apply in urban areas …]

    For those affected by farmers v miners, or have family & friends affected, or are just interested in the issue, the Q page probably provides an introductory template to the Federal Gov legislation and for other mining states’ legislation, with the probability the Q Gov template will be fine-tuned to fit the Federal (and vv).

  28. Victoria
    [I agree. It would be a crazy govt who would wind back negative gearing]
    According to one of the most emminent world economists [sorry cannot remember his name] Australia has the most generous negative gearing in the world.

  29. Re the state of US Politics, I had an email from a friend in American this morning, he is in despair about how things are going over there, says 2012(election year) is going to be terrible, more scared of Perry than Backman(not sure if spelling right) he wanted to secede Texas and now running for President, the other Backman is a religious nut, but Perry is the one who has the money behind him.
    Very scary and the methods of the Tea Party are being followed by the Coalition

  30. New poll out in US re choice for Republican Pres nominee

    HowardKurtz HowardKurtz
    by thedailybeast
    That was quick: Perry 29, Romney 18, Bachmann 13 (Rasmussen). Trump once led polls too. Q is whether Perry can withstand the scrutiny.

  36. Dee
    [I’ll open a can of worms.
    The government should start winding back negative gearing.
    Abolish first homebuyers grants.]
    Yes our system is pretty bad here and this causes the mess. Lots of economists have criticised it. Henry recommended reforms, among others. You could do it gradually without too much pain, by first putting a cap on negative gearing and then a sunset clause. Same with the first homeowner grant.

  37. Has anyone heard about this?

    [bennpackham Tony Abbott’s carbon tax doorstop didn’t go as planned today. The butcher’s shop he was going to visit said they didn’t want him coming in
    about 1 hour ago]

  38. [Yes our system is pretty bad here and this causes the mess. Lots of economists have criticised it. Henry recommended reforms, among others. You could do it gradually without too much pain, by first putting a cap on negative gearing and then a sunset clause. Same with the first homeowner grant.]
    I completely agree!

  45. The press gallery attempts at humor re Abbott being told to not go to the butchers shop for a press and pic stop.

    farrm51 Malcolm Farr
    So much for steak-holders.
    2 minutes ago
    Michelle Grattan
    michellegrattan Michelle Grattan
    a chop for Tony?

  49. [It would be interesting to speculate how the Oz media would report the equivalent of a hacking-gate scandal here]

    Socrates, given past and current media performances, I’d bet on “Wouldn’t be reported”, with a side bet on, “Reported only in Fairfax papers, probably once, (perhaps even on SBS, possibly unobtrusively); with reportage thereafter confined by a NewsLtd Restraining Orders”.

  50. [farrm51 Malcolm Farr
    So much for steak-holders.
    2 minutes ago
    Michelle Grattan
    michellegrattan Michelle Grattan
    a chop for Tony?]
    Tone’s plans hit a snag.

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