Nielsen struck a blow for transparency yesterday by releasing comprehensive data for their polling on asylum seekers, featuring detail on the questions and how they were asked, breakdowns by state, location, gender, age and voting intention, and no fewer than eight tables cross-tabulating various results for the eight questions asked. They even went so far as to include the raw numbers they reached after weighting the responses for age, gender and location, not that this particularly tells us much.
The poll also deserves credit for posing thoughtfully crafted questions on a complex and contentious subject. No doubt taking inspiration from Murray Goot and Ian Watson’s recent paper on public opinion and asylum seekers, which noted that results had been heavily influenced by “the way questions are framed, the kinds of questions that precede these questions (and) the range of possible responses the questions allow”, the Nielsen report offered the following:
It is important to note that the results of opinion polls on this issue are more sensitive to the wording of the questions asked than for many other topics. This is because the issues are often emotional for some and complicated for all. Respondent knowledge on this subject is never complete. The task of adequately condensing complex options into fair but meaningful questions is also a difficult one.
The questions in this poll were stripped of their political context as much as possible. For example the ‘sent to another country to be assessed’ option was not offered in the context of deterrence, nor was any human or financial cost alluded to. It was not offered as Labor or Coalition policy (e.g. by calling it the ‘Malaysian solution’ or the ‘Pacific solution’).
The Fairfax papers asserted that the poll showed voters “at odds with both Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott and the perception that attitudes have hardened against asylum seekers”, and certainly the figures point to a more liberal attitude than the tenor of political debate would suggest. However, The Age gilded the lily a little with a graphic showing 60 per cent believed those assessed as genuine refugees should be allowed to stay in Australia permanently. It takes a bit of digging to appreciate that this excludes the 15 per cent who didn’t believe the asylum seekers should be assessed at all, having preferred that they be “sent out to sea”. The number supporting settlement in Australia was nonetheless a very solid 49 per cent, although there remained a combined 44 per cent in favour of the less liberal options of temporary protection visas (29 per cent support) and sending boats back out to sea (15 per cent). The same issue occurs with The Age’s figures for whether boat arrivals should be held in detention (64 per cent) or allowed into the community (32 per cent): putting the aforementioned 15 per cent back in (together with the 4 per cent “other/don’t know“), the results come down to 52 per cent and 26 per cent.
Regarding the treatment of asylum seekers on arrival, the results can be broken down thus:
22% – Allowed to live in the Australian community
12% – Detained in Australia, excluding children
17% – Detained in Australia, including children
4% – Sent to another country, allowed to live in community there
23% – Sent to another country and detained there
4% – Assessed for refugee status, no opinion on detention
15% – No assessment for refugee status: sent back out to sea
4% – Other/don’t know
And on their treatment after being assessed for refugee status:
49% – Settled in Australia
29% – Granted temporary protection visas
2% – Returned to country of origin
15% – No assessment for refugee status: sent back out to sea
5% – Other/don’t know
To those who are ready to junk the orthodox view on this subject, I would offer a few notes of caution. Certainly there was no majority in favour of assessing refugee status in Australia at the time of the Tampa episode, when Nielsen and Morgan polls had between 68 per cent and 77 per cent in favour of turning boats away. It is hardly plausible that so many of these respondents have had changes of heart that only 15 per cent now remain. What it likely shows is how the finer point of public opinion on this issue are shaped by the terms of the debate at the time. The symbolism in August/September 2001 involved boats being either allowed to land or held at bay by the military – only as the Howard government scrambled to effect its “Pacific solution” was the public alerted to the fact that the latter course only constituted half a policy. This may have led to a change in questions posed and answers given in opinion polls, but it doesn’t follow that there was a shift in underlying attitudes.
This leads to a point that occurs to me about the wording of Nielsen’s “sent to another country to be assessed” option: for many respondents, Nauru might not register as “another country” in the sense that Malaysia does, as it is perceived either as a dependency of Australia or too insigificant to qualify as a “country”. This option may accordingly have been interpreted by some as an invitation to sign on for the Malaysia solution. If Nielsen had at least added enough political context to allow for the restoration of the Pacific solution as a response option, the poll may have told a somewhat different story.
UPDATE (22/8): Crikey reports the latest Essential Research has Labor up a point on two-party preferred (to 56-44 from 57-43) and also on the primary vote, to 32 per cent, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 50 per cent and 10 per cent. In other findings, 24 per cent support the health package finalised by government last month against 9 per cent opposed, with the great majority either indifferent (31 per cent said it would have little or no impact) or ignorant (28 per cent said they had heard nothing, 36 per cent little). Forty-seven per cent supported David Cameron’s suggestion that access to Twitter and Facebook be blocked during periods of civil unrest, with support varying as you would expect according to age and social media usage.
UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here.
[My preferred option would be for Labor to step in and consolidate the various positions – miners v. farmers, Greens v. Coalition, Lib Premiers v. Labor Federals – if they could, say at COAG.]
I think this is the plan and I dont see it as a minefield at all most people know we need land to farm with good water supplies ect. so the big mining days will come and go but we alwasy need food.
if we make the land barren and worthless it would take many many years for compost to have any value in restoring the land, this of course has too be explained
to the WA and Qld who seem to be the only one hell bent on digging everything up
and not digging in
ps if we can get the vote up in sa, vic and parts of nsw we dont really need this lot any way
my say
We are a federation. 🙂
I have attended ‘Lock the Gate’ rallies.
I said on PBer months ago, it was the first time moi had seen farmers & Greenies fighting side by side.
Bob Brown got rowsing applause from the farmers. It was Bob Brown who won some concessions for farmers west of Toowoomba, not Ian McFarlane.
Long time Greenie Drew Hutton is leading the farmers charge,getting them organized & assisting them to get meetings with the relevant ministers etc….
This has the potential to hit traditional Coalition country seats hard.
Pyne moves to extend Hunt’s time. I think the last time they tried this the division failed. I hope it succeeds because I’d like to hear what Hunt has got.
[These people are just angry, bigotted fools]
Unfortunately some politicians can make a career out of appealing to such people. In a completely unrelated matter, I note that Pauline Hanson was at the anti-carbon tax rally yesterday.
[31 victoria
Posted Wednesday, August 17, 2011 at 8:48 am | Permalink
my say
I am not clear on all aspects of coal mining issue. Windsor is not against it. He wants to ensure that any mining that is conducted especially on prime land, is not going to damage the water table under the ground and thereby destroying the rich soil. He wants legislation that ensures that the land is protected from damage that can be caused by this type of mining.]\
i would most likely think that MR windsor has already spoken to tony burke and the PM
i think this i hope i am correct with this one will be a win win for the gov and ind and greens in country areas, it will also make them see that the greens can be thinking people about the farm environment.
Do you all remember when we called the areas not in the city the country,
it was howard who started calling it the bush, can we now use the word country again, please.
victoria i was only talking re votes, nothing else.
[my say
Posted Wednesday, August 17, 2011 at 9:17 am | Permalink
ps if we can get the vote up in sa, vic and parts of nsw we dont really need this lot any way]
i am speaking here of labor an votes for the gov only,
but to be truthfull i have gone off visiting some of these areas.
DEE
that would of been very intersting, also it s the nationals who have neglegted and paid lip service to the country areas for years , and also support mining industry
so the greens could be seen to some farmers as a saviour that put them first.
What stupid rules. Your time is extended by 5 minutes but you can’t use it. If you want to shut down a debate, just call divisions till time runs out.
It would be unfair to suggest that Michelle Bachmann is the worst crazy in the US republican POTUS race. Texas governor Rick Perry matches her dumb-idea for dumb-idea. He wants ot make sure there is no “QE3”, which is about the only way left for the USA to get its economy moving, with any debt stimulus or tax hikes on the rich already ruled out by the tea-party. Do they want eternal recession?
[Texas Governor Rick Perry, who entered the presidential campaign on Saturday, appeared to suggest a violent response would be warranted should Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke “print more money” between now and the election. Speaking just now in Iowa, Perry said, “If this guy prints more money between now and the election, I dunno what y’all would do to him in Iowa but we would treat him pretty ugly down in Texas. Printing more money to play politics at this particular time in American history is almost treasonous in my opinion.” Treason is a capital offense.]
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/16/ignorance-paranoia-and-implied-violence/
[Thousands of workers will be sacked after some of the nation’s biggest companies revealed major job cuts yesterday.
As Treasurer Wayne Swan admitted some parts of the economy continued to struggle, Westpac, Qantas and OneSteel outlined how they would cut their local workforces.]
Not good news.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/10053473/thousands-of-workers-face-axe/
what sort of small hand held computer ( not mention names here } do the majority of you have,
there is now two choices of companies i think
[Posted Wednesday, August 17, 2011 at 9:29 am | Permalink
What stupid rules. Your time is extended by 5 minutes but you can’t use it. If you want to shut down a debate, just call divisions till time runs out]
was this one of the new inventions, may be time to write to rob oakshott about things that dont seem to be working.
My Say
[so the greens could be seen to some farmers as a saviour that put them first.]
Drew Hutton has become the farmers champion.
I think this has the potential to lose seats for the Nats.
Dee
Interesting. one question, are the farmers wanting more compensation, or assurances that the land is not being irreversably damaged?
banks i have noticed over the years cut staff, and airlines also, love to know what their staff was so 5 years ago
i can remember when oh worked for telstra the staff is now nealy half now
[that the land is not being irreversibly damaged?]
well here this the above, re forestry and plantations, i just sent tony Windsors talk to nick mckim here as i think this applies here to, too many plantations re forestry
[It would be unfair to suggest that Michelle Bachmann is the worst crazy in the US republican POTUS race.]
I saw two interviews on the weekend and she came across quite well and sounded sane and sensible, even if her policies aren’t. She put a convincing sounding case for her position and there were no Palin-like stumbles. She’s no dummy.
[Drew Hutton has ]
so he is a green, well i often think about the nationals they seem to have a farmers base, but do they now, how many of them work the land, or own farms now
like to know
o another thing the liberal vote without the nationals is worth looking at.
my say
ipad2
triton
I am yet to be convinced by someone who professes to get messages from God. If she were a muslim saying that instead of a christian, I wonder what her fellow citizens might think?
Victoria
[Interesting. one question, are the farmers wanting more compensation, or assurances that the land is not being irreversably damaged?]
They want assurances that the land will not be irreversable damaged & others want the right to deny mining onto their properties altogether.
I heard zip about more compensation in regards to the crowd I mingled with.
It’s all very well for some to say it is not intrusive or damaging.
Some of these corps sealed off sections of properties, graded roads etc… for their own access which is off limits to farmers.
My son-inlaws father has a huge holding in Kogan. He has pipelines running through his property and wells all over the place. They told him they have found an exceptional deposit.
victoria, she didn’t say anything nutty like that in those interviews, and I’m not up with everything that’s come out before except that she’s made some historical howlers. Maybe someone needs to throw a glass of water in my face because I have a confession to make: I liked her.
Good morning, Bludgers.
Re insurance claim: We’ll move out soon, probably until Dec, as most of the interior (& 5 years’ family labour) is stripped out & replaced. Depressing; so put off last night’s Japanese Tsunami till I needed reminding of what happened as so much Escarpment water & landslips thundered c 700 metres down into the Lockyer, creating a 10-12 metre ‘inland tsunami’ – about the height of those which hit parts of the Japanese coast, with similar results, but in a more widely scattered farming community.
One gift of the instantly AV-connected world is a feeling of oneness with others from other countries – and the utter stupidity of shallow, blinkered nationalism/ zealotry/ xenophobia. In essence, we’re all the same species, with common ancestry, common needs and common feelings; all subject to nature’s whims. All else is superficial.
On the bright side: for the first time in my life, moving into a finished house, smelling of “new”, without having been part of the family building/ renovation work-team. Don’t know how I’ll react to loss of “ownership” and sense of “We did it together”.
Re Farmers v Miners
Ta, Victoria #17 http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2011/s3295083.htm
Interestingly, for one who follows this issue, esp in the local Chronicle, I had not heard/ read:
[TONY WINDSOR: It will come in next Monday – the legislation – which will be a broadening of the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act, using the corporation powers of the Commonwealth, because this is essentially a state piece of legislation that we’re dealing with in terms of mining.
ALI MOORE: So will this override state legislation?
TONY WINDSOR: It will allow a process where … one of the trigger mechanisms to that Act to allow the Commonwealth to play a role, will be water. It’s not the issue of coal seam gas or mining or extractive activities that some people are suggesting that we should ban. I don’t agree with that at all.
But I think in certain – what I call “sensitive” – areas, or prime agricultural areas, or areas where there’s ground water, surface water, floodplains – that some of these extractive activities should be viewed with great scrutiny.]
Why, I ask, amid the welter of reactions to new-found Coalition concern – and yet more of Abbott’s two-faced utterances, claims, back-flips etc – did I hear nothing from the MSM (national, state, local) about what Windsor outlined above? As a Queenslander, I did hear about Anna Bligh’s latest proposed legislation (TV), but not about Federal moves.
BTW: What’s to bet that Abbott claims the Gillard Government has “stolen” the Coalition policy – given they don’t to my knowledge, have one, and were still openly pro-mining until near Easter?
triton
Good grief! You obviously have not been listening to her? Perhaps you are hypnotised by her charming looks? Seriously though. She is worse than Palin, and that is saying something
[I think this has the potential to lose seats for the Nats.]
I don’t think they’ll start voting Green, but I think this offers the opportunity for a strong local to run as an independent to leach votes away from the LNP.
The state election will be the test I suppose.
OPT
I do hope your housing issues are sorted out sooner than later. It must be very unsettling to say the least.
As I have already mentioned, you have truly been on top of this issue. I too am surprised that the first I heard about Windsor’s bill was on Lateline. I am not on top of this issue at all, but really do wonder what the govt ought do?
confessions
I would never had dreamed that traditional Nat seats would even contemplate voting Green. Never, never……
But, where are the Nats, the Libs on an issue that is gaining pace on the Downs & other farming communities around the country?
It is not the Nats or Libs that are giving the farmers a voice.
triton:
Trust me when I say that Bachmann makes Palin look reasonable.
[latikambourke Labor MP Craig Thomson has updated the Register of Interests – ‘the ALP (NSW branch) paid a sum of money in settlement of a legal matter…’
19 minutes ago]
[latikambourke Labor’s Craig Thomson updated the register on 16 August regarding the payment in May 2011. (Meant to notify within 28 days.)
17 minutes ago]
I recall something about Abbott not updating the register some time ago? Not sure exactly what it was about
victoria:
[Good grief!]
Yes, I know.
[You obviously have not been listening to her?]
Only on the weekend. She didn’t sound extreme at all, and was quite adept at answering some curly questions.
[Perhaps you are hypnotised by her charming looks?]
That’s possible. She is a charmer.
confessions
I wonder if Alan Jones realises this and therefore wanted Abbott to get on board?
triton
I recommend you wake up from your stupor. 😀
[But, where are the Nats, the Libs on an issue that is gaining pace on the Downs & other farming communities around the country?]
I posted last night on a similar issue happening in Crook’s electorate. I asked Frank whether he’d heard anymore about it, but he hasn’t. Like the LNP in the Downs, Crook has been silent on the southern WA farmers as well.
[49% – Settled in Australia
29% – Granted temporary protection visas
2% – Returned to country of origin
15% – No assessment for refugee status: sent back out to sea
5% – Other/don’t know]
Given the extreme right wing nut jobs that Abbott has thrown his lot in with, how long before we hearing him ‘suggesting’ that ‘ahhhh, there err should ahhh be er no ahhh assessment er of refugee ahhh status: and ahhhh sent back er to ahhh sea” (& the next day, when told that this would violate international law, he’d say “ahhhh that er was ahhhh just er ahhh a thought-bubble ahhh er that ahhhh reflects er the thoughts of ahhh many er well-meaning, patriotic ahh and mainstream er Australians. (i.e. I didn’t write it down, so I didn’t really mean it You know how I do this sort of thing all the time and nobody in the media calls me to account on it? excuse me while a blow on this dog-whistle for a bit)”.
The man is a loon and is dragging Australian politics into banjo and bible thumping territory. Surely there are enough ‘liberals’ within the Liberal party to make a move on him, or has the DLP take-over of that party been complete. I wish Malcolm Turnbull would organise a hostage swap between the parties – let the catholic right of the Labor party head over to The Democratic Liberal Party (as no doubt Tony, Andrews, Mirrabella, Bernardi, etc would like to call it) with the moderates either joining Labor or forming a new centralist party.
Can you imagine the media frenzy if Gillard got up and addressed a rally of similarly extreme but left wing groups mirroring the far right of Abbott’s crowd yesterday? Would they just accept it if she said “I see some people I agree very much with, and others I don’t agree as much with..” (the latter part of the statement I interpret as Abbott seeing some ABC journalists and crowd in the crowd)?
opps – “ABC journalists and crowd in he crowd’= “…CREW in the crowd”
victoria:
I don’t know why Jones was trying to get Tone involved.
Rabbott is still ‘Teflon Man’.
triton
have a read of this, for starters:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/michele-bachmanns-holy-war-20110622
I heard Bachmann interviewed a couple of weeks ago. She was presented with an outright lie she had made about Obama. I have never seen such a brazen reaction!
The journo just gave up trying to get a direct response from her, which is probably what she counted on.
Dee, the original “greens” involved were John Sinclair (Saving Fraser Is campaign) and Larissa Waters (now Q Green Senator). The invitation to JS occurred before we went OS July 2010; we arrived back before Election10 to learn of LW’s involvement – NOT ONE LNP member was on-side with the farmers. At the time, I opined that Maranoa Fed electorate (Bruce Scott) was ripe for an Indie’s picking.
It took the LNP another 9 months to realise that – and get their heads around the probability that LW won the Senate seat on proFarmer preferences.
I don’t know whether Surat Basin farmers, or Hunter Valley, or Sydney environs, or any other potential coal-seam gas, shale oil etc mining regions, were swallowing any LNP “conversion” before Abbott opened his lunar-park mouth on his return from OS; but after subsequent back-flips, denials etc, I doubt it.
BTW: What do the farmers want? The rural version of NIMBY – NBMOML – No Blo^dy Mining On MY Land!
[BTW: What do the farmers want? The rural version of NIMBY – NBMOML – No Blo^dy Mining On MY Land!]
And that is fair enough if it valuable food production country.
There has to be a point when food security outweighs the almight resource $.
Confessions
[Jones was born and raised on a dairy farm near Oakey in south-east Queensland, and attended primary school at Acland state school,[11] before attending Toowoomba Grammar School as a boarder.]
OzPol
Didn’t ole Joh destroy John Sinclair, running him out of the state???
[Dee, the original “greens” involved were John Sinclair (Saving Fraser Is campaign) and Larissa Waters (now Q Green Senator). The invitation to JS occurred before we went OS July 2010]
I had the great pleasure to meet John Sinclair years ago and be among a group of people he showed around Fraser Island, including pointing out the more spectacular flora and fauna. A wonderful bloke, great place and a memorable experience. Those who recall how much Sinclair suffered from Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s abuse of legal process will appreciate his genuine commitment to protecting the rural environment.
When you consider that the LNP in Qld is so desperate for Clive Palmer’s money that they will not oppose any mining under any circumstances, I think the Greens could be on a smart stategy here.
[Didn’t ole Joh destroy John Sinclair, running him out of the state???]
Indirectly yes. Joh took Sinclair to court repeatedly (using State funds) to virtually bankrupt him. Sinclair’s crime was arguing the legal case for protecting Fraser Island, which is world heritage listed.
Socrates
[When you consider that the LNP in Qld is so desperate for Clive Palmer’s money that they will not oppose any mining under any circumstances, I think the Greens could be on a smart stategy here.]
Qlders are a funny bunch.
They may have ridiculed the Greens trying to save icons but this issue affects them personally & it is in the ‘now’.
Quite a different scenario to saving the reef, Fraser Island & other national parks.
Dee
I don’t doubt the motivations of the farmers and greens are rather diffeent. Neverthelss they probably have the same objective right now, so some degree of alliance might make (political) sense. I can’t see the LNP sticking up for farmers against a miner, and the Greens can argue that to farmers with sincerity.
I don’t buy the farmers compensation arguments for reasons I said yesterday (no such right exists). Nevertheless they are entitled to see that any mining operation is proven environmentally safe, as are the rest of us.
Catherine Deveny responding to Devine’s piece
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/2842140.html